Indulge me: 2010 = 2024?

[calsnowskier]

cal, I may be very wrong on my read, but it does seem like you still operate from the 80s/90s model of excellent offensive 1st basemen exist throughout MLB and the Giants could easily do better than the injury prone, high OBP guys that they start there. If you look at some contending teams, 1st base is more of a black hole in the lineup or a place where guys just rotate through. Even if the player has problems staying healthy, if he can hit when he is healthy, he needs to be the starter.

Fair critique.

Watching Snow and Belt for 20+ years (and Clark as a baseball-infant), I do appreciate good D at 1B, but I probably don’t factor it in to my calculus of assessing 1B as much as i should.

But look at the power teams in the Majors…

Rizzo
Freeman
Harper
Olson

All stud 1B. Not a LWJ among them.

 

[LHG]

Fair critique.

Watching Snow and Belt for 20+ years (and Clark as a baseball-infant), I do appreciate good D at 1B, but I probably don’t factor it in to my calculus of assessing 1B as much as i should.

But look at the power teams in the Majors…

Rizzo
Freeman
Harper
Olson

All stud 1B. Not a LWJ among them.

Yes, the Dodgers picked up arguably the best 1st baseman in the MLB today with Freeman. It pains me to say this, but the Dodgers are a model franchise right now in many ways.

And the Braves went out and traded for one of the other best 1st basemen right now, although it should be pointed out that he is essentially having a replacement level season this year (OPS+ of 100).

When the Phillies moved Harper to first base, the criticism was that the Phillies were actually weakening their outfield by moving him and that they would have been better served keeping him in right field and having someone replacement level at 1st base.

And Rizzo was once good. This year, he is hitting with an OPS+ of 76 and is currently injured. Guys like DJ LeMahieu and Ben Rice have been filling in with similar production (with Rice's league average offensive counterweighted with LeMahieu's putrid OPS+ of 48).

My point is that there isn't enough high quality 1st basemen out there so even if a guy is injury prone, if he can produce when healthy, keep him over settling for a Rizzo or LeMahieu.

 

[msgkings322]

Yeah, he's good now and was good last year but have you seen his career? He goes from Ace level to 4th/5th starter. Maybe he has finally figured it out, how to maintain more ace level consistency from year to year but it seems way too early to determine that to be the case and, as cal mentioned, he is a bit old for a pitcher. With that said, I have to acknowledge that some pitchers do come into their prime in their early to mid 30s. By far that is the exception, though.

Again if you guys don’t consider this player worth the risk then you will never make a move. Because the no risk players like Ohtani aren’t available to us.

 

[msgkings322]

cal, I may be very wrong on my read, but it does seem like you still operate from the 80s/90s model of excellent offensive 1st basemen exist throughout MLB and the Giants could easily do better than the injury prone, high OBP guys that they start there. If you look at some contending teams, 1st base is more of a black hole in the lineup or a place where guys just rotate through. Even if the player has problems staying healthy, if he can hit when he is healthy, he needs to be the starter.

It’s hard for me to reconcile this take with your take on Snell

 

[LHG]

It’s hard for me to reconcile this take with your take on Snell

Production consistency is a bit different that staying healthy. Wade is cheap and provides a clear offensive plus for the team. His problem is staying healthy. He also costs the team very little. If he was being paid two dollar for his position then it would be a different conversation.
Snell, will generally staying healthy, at least compared to Wade, varies wildly in his pitching output. He also costs a lot of money. My concern about the money isn't that it would limit the Giants from getting other players, its that if he goes into 4th/5th starter mode for a couple of years, his contract will mean that he won't get replaced in the rotation.
For the record, I'm not trying to say the Giants shouldn't sign him long term. I'm neutral on that. I do prefer younger pitchers from the org, but do recognize that Snell is pitching excellently right now. Just don't think a decision should be made based on a 5 start period of time, though. Webb, had a rough patch of about 5 starts. Do we start to think about letting him go? No, neither should we want to extend a pitcher because a 5 start period of dominance. It gets our attention and we consider the long term value but we also consider the career as well. Is he consistent enough in the past that this period suggests continued ace level work in the future?

 

[msgkings322]

Production consistency is a bit different that staying healthy. Wade is cheap and provides a clear offensive plus for the team. His problem is staying healthy. He also costs the team very little. If he was being paid two dollar for his position then it would be a different conversation.
Snell, will generally staying healthy, at least compared to Wade, varies wildly in his pitching output. He also costs a lot of money. My concern about the money isn't that it would limit the Giants from getting other players, its that if he goes into 4th/5th starter mode for a couple of years, his contract will mean that he won't get replaced in the rotation.
For the record, I'm not trying to say the Giants shouldn't sign him long term. I'm neutral on that. I do prefer younger pitchers from the org, but do recognize that Snell is pitching excellently right now. Just don't think a decision should be made based on a 5 start period of time, though. Webb, had a rough patch of about 5 starts. Do we start to think about letting him go? No, neither should we want to extend a pitcher because a 5 start period of dominance. It gets our attention and we consider the long term value but we also consider the career as well. Is he consistent enough in the past that this period suggests continued ace level work in the future?

My desire for Snell is based on his career, his skill, his stuff, and the model we used to win titles. 3 aces plus a lockdown bullpen is the foundation of how we can win here.

It's not risk free, but that's how we have to operate. Risk free players don't sign with the Giants, and there are very few of those anyway. Aces are aces and Snell is an ace. I want 3 of them in the rotation next year, with 2 more promising young pitchers to go with them.

 

[tzill]

Production consistency is a bit different that staying healthy. Wade is cheap and provides a clear offensive plus for the team. His problem is staying healthy. He also costs the team very little. If he was being paid two dollar for his position then it would be a different conversation.
Snell, will generally staying healthy, at least compared to Wade, varies wildly in his pitching output. He also costs a lot of money. My concern about the money isn't that it would limit the Giants from getting other players, its that if he goes into 4th/5th starter mode for a couple of years, his contract will mean that he won't get replaced in the rotation.
For the record, I'm not trying to say the Giants shouldn't sign him long term. I'm neutral on that. I do prefer younger pitchers from the org, but do recognize that Snell is pitching excellently right now. Just don't think a decision should be made based on a 5 start period of time, though. Webb, had a rough patch of about 5 starts. Do we start to think about letting him go? No, neither should we want to extend a pitcher because a 5 start period of dominance. It gets our attention and we consider the long term value but we also consider the career as well. Is he consistent enough in the past that this period suggests continued ace level work in the future?

Fair approach, IMO. But remember that the Snelk decision won't be made until October/November when we have his total 2024 body of work to look at.

 

[LHG]

Fair approach, IMO. But remember that the Snelk decision won't be made until October/November when we have his total 2024 body of work to look at.

I'm responding to msg's desire to lock him up now (unless I misunderstood your posts, msg, then my apologies for the mistake), before the offseason. Of course, considering Boras is Snell's agent, I really doubt that an extension signing now would even be possible. Boras has to be salivating at how he could build up Snell's signing at top dollar based on these 5 starts. Unless Boras reconsiders how he handles negotiations after last offseason (I'm sure he will tweak his pitches but I doubt he reconsiders going after a dollar goal) or Snell switches agents, Snell is almost a lock to opt out and test the waters of free agency, based on how he is currently doing. Now, if he falls off a cliff from here to the end of the year, that may be different. Of course, that could well change the tone of this conversation in this forum as well.

 

[calsnowskier]

Again if you guys don’t consider this player worth the risk then you will never make a move. Because the no risk players like Ohtani aren’t available to us.

Why not? Taxes? The dogs are on line 1. Team history? ONLY the Spanks have us beat. Current team build? Hello?! That’s my point! $$? This team CHOOSES not to compete at the same level as the Spanks and dogs on that front. We are not the Rays or Pirates.

 

[msgkings322]

Why not? Taxes? The dogs are on line 1. Team history? ONLY the Spanks have us beat. Current team build? Hello?! That’s my point! $$? This team CHOOSES not to compete at the same level as the Spanks and dogs on that front. We are not the Rays or Pirates.

One way to show we aren’t the Rays and Pirates is to sign Snell. There’s no single realistic move I can think of better than that one available.

Ohtani types aren’t available to us because for the 10th time sluggers don’t want to play here, especially lefties.

 

[sf1giantfan]

We will have to wait at the end of the season to get a clearer picture if we should sign any of our guys that can walk. One thing we should know is that I doubt any of them want to be on a losing team. So if we don’t sign one of them it very might influence the others to not sign as well. But if we don’t make the playoffs or have a losing record it may not matter, that might be enough for them to move on. Either way it is best we make the playoffs to give us a chance to secure better players.

 

[LHG]

We will have to wait at the end of the season to get a clearer picture if we should sign any of our guys that can walk. One thing we should know is that I doubt any of them want to be on a losing team. So if we don’t sign one of them it very might influence the others to not sign as well. But if we don’t make the playoffs or have a losing record it may not matter, that might be enough for them to move on. Either way it is best we make the playoffs to give us a chance to secure better players.

Here are the free agents this offseason for the Giants:
Curt Casali
Wilmer Flores (team option for 2025)
Mark Canha
Michael Conforto
Blake Snell (if he exercises his opt out)

I think Snell is the only one that should be considered (maybe Conforto if he continues to hit better)

 

[sf1giantfan]

Here are the free agents this offseason for the Giants:
Curt Casali
Wilmer Flores (team option for 2025)
Mark Canha
Michael Conforto
Blake Snell (if he exercises his opt out)

I think Snell is the only one that should be considered (maybe Conforto if he continues to hit better)

Doesn’t Chap and Ray have a player option after the season?

 

[calsnowskier]

Here are the free agents this offseason for the Giants:
Curt Casali
Wilmer Flores (team option for 2025)
Mark Canha
Michael Conforto
Blake Snell (if he exercises his opt out)

I think Snell is the only one that should be considered (maybe Conforto if he continues to hit better)

Ray and Chappy have opt outs as well.

I expect Ray to opt in, and I think it is a toss up for Chappy (likely he stays, but I wouldn’t be surprised either way).

 

[LHG]

Ray and Chappy have opt outs as well.

I expect Ray to opt in, and I think it is a toss up for Chappy (likely he stays, but I wouldn’t be surprised either way).

I forgot about Chapman's opt out. I don't really think he is likely to stay but can see it as a possibility. Probably depends on how much he listens to Boras.

I completely missed Ray's opt out. You are probably right on him staying, based on the fact that he just came back from major surgery, but what if he finishes strong? He could surprise us.

 

[Robotech]

I forgot about Chapman's opt out. I don't really think he is likely to stay but can see it as a possibility. Probably depends on how much he listens to Boras.

I completely missed Ray's opt out. You are probably right on him staying, based on the fact that he just came back from major surgery, but what if he finishes strong? He could surprise us.

No one is going to come sign here anyway, so let's use the money on Chapman, Snell, and Ray if necessary.

 

[tzill]

Here are the free agents this offseason for the Giants:
Curt Casali
Wilmer Flores (team option for 2025)
Mark Canha
Michael Conforto
Blake Snell (if he exercises his opt out)

I think Snell is the only one that should be considered (maybe Conforto if he continues to hit better)

Chapman and Ray also have opt outs