So tell me: How can Kentucky beat Wisconsin?

[TrollyMcTroller]

The pyth's of the four teams are:

Kentucky: .9787
Arizona: .9648
Wisconsin: .9616
Duke: .9537

When you take out the Rutgers game that Frank missed, we go above .97. So yes, Kentucky is slightly better than us per KenPom, but it is pretty minimal. No one would say that Arizona would be a huge favorite over Duke, but the gap is much greater than KY-WI (with Frank).

It's a bit of a coin flip. It really is. I like our Seniors to come through, and I think ND really exposed Kentucky's defense. I think we are a good matchup. I worry about our defense, but I do know that we are much better on the defensive rebounds than Kentucky is on the offensive rebounds. If Kentucky misses poorly, I like our defense. In the end, like I've said all along, it's gonna come down to shooting.

Yeah, I think they are pretty close. Spread is a little high (I like Wisky to cover) and it should be a close game, but if either team is having an off night the other team has enough talent to run away with it.

And with all the hype that the big-men matchups are getting I think the guard play will ultimately decide the game. Wisky's bigs will likely spread the floor and if their guards can penetrate as well as ND's then it could be a long night for UK, but I'm just not sure if Wisky's guards are quick enough to really take full advantage of that situation. On the other end of the floor I think UK might have a hard time getting into the paint so they might have to rely on their outside shooting more than usual which could be problematic for them.

I think the officiating could come into play as well. Most of the games have been called fairly tight, and I think that plays to UK's big depth advantage. If Wisconsin gets into foul trouble early, they could have a lot of problems. If the refs "let 'em play" then not only does Wisconsin have to worry less about their own foul trouble, they don't have to worry as much about UK's "just take it ot the rack and try to draw a foul" strategy that they seem to fall back on when all else fails.

I give UK a slight advantage, but the only thing that would really surprise me is if either team wins by more than 15.

 

[trojanfan12]

By scoring more points?

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

By scoring more points?

 

[douggie]

By scoring more points?

Why that may be the BEST criteria, I get the sneaky impression that by having the most SportsHoopla posters on a given side gives one of these teams and their fans the clear cut edge.

 

[Monte Carlo Wildcat]

If Wisconsin shoots the 3 ball the same way they did against us, I smell a badger victory. Should be a great game either way.

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

If Wisconsin shoots the 3 ball the same way they did against us, I smell a badger victory.

Agreed. (but that's a big "if")

Should be a great game either way.

Agree 100% It has the potential to be the game of the tourney.

 

[Monte Carlo Wildcat]

Agreed. (but that's a big "if")

yeah it's a big "If" for sure. Interested to see Kentucky's perimter defense vs Wisconsin's perimter offense. They forced our defense into mismatches and shot right over us. Thing is, ALL of kentucky's player are tall so we'll see if they are able to shoot freely or disrupted. I think this will be key.

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

yeah it's a big "If" for sure. Interested to see Kentucky's perimter defense vs Wisconsin's perimter offense. They forced our defense into mismatches and shot right over us. Thing is, ALL of kentucky's player are tall so we'll see if they are able to shoot freely or disrupted. I think this will be key.

Yeah, I think they're going to have a hard time shooting over KY. That's not to say they can't exploit things like a double team on Frank in order to get open looks, but I think most of there is a defender anywhere near a perimeter shooter, they'll have a tough time.

Also, I think Wisky was shooting about 35% from behind the arc going into the AZ game. Then they lit it up for 66% in that game.

If we assume the regress towards the mean, it will be significantly lower. Of course, I could also buy into "they've hit their stride" and that's just how they're going to shoot the rest of the season.

At this point I just hope MSU doesn't win it all. I love the tourney, but when 7 and 8 seeds keep making the final game I'm going to have a hard time accepting the legitimacy of the Champion.

 

[GNG]

By showing up.. ..if UK shoots poorly they'll win a close game, if they shoot well from the outside, they will absolutely blow Wisconsin's doors off. Last year's starting center for UK plays about 10 minutes a game now behind WCS and KAT. UK's guards will penetrate on Wisconsin at will. Who is gonna guard KAT in the post? Kaminsky? Hayes? LMAO. When they double KAT, it's open 3's and put backs. Wisconsin doesn't have anyone like Grant from ND. Their guards can't take UK's off the dribble. Kaminsky looks like a little boy beside WCS. Willie will lock him down. Could be a total beat down

Wisconsin wins this game because they are just mentally tougher.

 

[UK Cowboy]

Wisconsin wins this game because they are just mentally tougher.

LMAO

 

[GNG]

LMAO

 

[Codaxx]

Yeah, I think they're going to have a hard time shooting over KY. That's not to say they can't exploit things like a double team on Frank in order to get open looks, but I think most of there is a defender anywhere near a perimeter shooter, they'll have a tough time.

Also, I think Wisky was shooting about 35% from behind the arc going into the AZ game. Then they lit it up for 66% in that game.

If we assume the regress towards the mean, it will be significantly lower. Of course, I could also buy into "they've hit their stride" and that's just how they're going to shoot the rest of the season.

At this point I just hope MSU doesn't win it all. I love the tourney, but when 7 and 8 seeds keep making the final game I'm going to have a hard time accepting the legitimacy of the Champion.

I think people are missing the key. ND did not score effeciently, because they shot over or around UK. The key is Kentucky's off ball defense. ND shredded it for easy looks. Cal has to fix that. Wisconsin can do damage there and on the offensive glass. Those are the things I think will decide how effective Wisky's offense is

 

[pennstatenut]

The pyth's of the four teams are:

Kentucky: .9787
Arizona: .9648
Wisconsin: .9616
Duke: .9537

When you take out the Rutgers game that Frank missed, we go above .97. So yes, Kentucky is slightly better than us per KenPom, but it is pretty minimal. No one would say that Arizona would be a huge favorite over Duke, but the gap is much greater than KY-WI (with Frank).

It's a bit of a coin flip. It really is. I like our Seniors to come through, and I think ND really exposed Kentucky's defense. I think we are a good matchup. I worry about our defense, but I do know that we are much better on the defensive rebounds than Kentucky is on the offensive rebounds. If Kentucky misses poorly, I like our defense. In the end, like I've said all along, it's gonna come down to shooting.

Sparty says "Fuck You"

 

[Smart]

Sparty says "Fuck You"

I was gonna make a post calling out Trolly for relying on KenPom when he called Duke better than Arizona, but then I realized Eric was the one who said that. I made a lazy edit, without even realizing I eliminated the context for the four teams.

In other words, I am now an honorary ESPN editor.

 

[UK Cowboy]

Of course, because they completely dominated the best team that they have played all year in the Elite Eight, so it's a sure thing that they will completely dominate the best team they will face all year in the final four (and then likely the second best team they play all year in the national championship game).

Because, as so many people have stated, if they are focused they will kill everyone (must not have been focused last weekend, because you know it wasn't the final four yet!). The SEC tournament final was the hardest game of the year, I forgot! Thanks for reminding me UK Cowboy! You are such a swell guy.

Hit the recruiting trail Bud. Better luck next year

 

[night]

Fast pace play and interior defense. Wisconsin lacks depth and Kentucky has an advantage in athleticism so they need to wear them out.

 

[JuiceTheGator]

UW can take it to the hoop, too. UK will play them tight if the Badgers look hot shooting early. But charging the lane against UK is a daunting task. I think UK by a dozen or a tight game are equally likely.

 

[rmilia1]

size messes with ppl shooting form which creates bad shoots.. that lowers the chance of a team scoring...

True but Wisconsin is interchangeable on offense. Meaning their bigs are just as capable ( if not moreso ) of making outside shots as their guards. UK is either going to have to hope their guards can cover Wisconsins bigs outside OR they are going to have to relegate their bigs to playing out on the 3 point line thus making an already mediocre defensive rebounding team even more lacking in that area. I have to say I am more excited for this game than I have been ANY other CBB game not involving Iowa in at least the last 3 or 4 years. Matchups are awesome in this one.

 

[shabazz916]

True but Wisconsin is interchangeable on offense. Meaning their bigs are just as capable ( if not moreso ) of making outside shots as their guards. UK is either going to have to hope their guards can cover Wisconsins bigs outside OR they are going to have to relegate their bigs to playing out on the 3 point line thus making an already mediocre defensive rebounding team even more lacking in that area. I have to say I am more excited for this game than I have been ANY other CBB game not involving Iowa in at least the last 3 or 4 years. Matchups are awesome in this one.

kentucky bigs are athletic too tho... kentucky will over whelm wisconsin with the number of good players they have... because wisconsin has no shot blocking

 

[dcZONAfan]

Hit the recruiting trail Bud. Better luck next year

Join me there?