TrollyMcTroller
Well-Known Member
The pyth's of the four teams are:
Kentucky: .9787
Arizona: .9648
Wisconsin: .9616
Duke: .9537
When you take out the Rutgers game that Frank missed, we go above .97. So yes, Kentucky is slightly better than us per KenPom, but it is pretty minimal. No one would say that Arizona would be a huge favorite over Duke, but the gap is much greater than KY-WI (with Frank).
It's a bit of a coin flip. It really is. I like our Seniors to come through, and I think ND really exposed Kentucky's defense. I think we are a good matchup. I worry about our defense, but I do know that we are much better on the defensive rebounds than Kentucky is on the offensive rebounds. If Kentucky misses poorly, I like our defense. In the end, like I've said all along, it's gonna come down to shooting.
Yeah, I think they are pretty close. Spread is a little high (I like Wisky to cover) and it should be a close game, but if either team is having an off night the other team has enough talent to run away with it.
And with all the hype that the big-men matchups are getting I think the guard play will ultimately decide the game. Wisky's bigs will likely spread the floor and if their guards can penetrate as well as ND's then it could be a long night for UK, but I'm just not sure if Wisky's guards are quick enough to really take full advantage of that situation. On the other end of the floor I think UK might have a hard time getting into the paint so they might have to rely on their outside shooting more than usual which could be problematic for them.
I think the officiating could come into play as well. Most of the games have been called fairly tight, and I think that plays to UK's big depth advantage. If Wisconsin gets into foul trouble early, they could have a lot of problems. If the refs "let 'em play" then not only does Wisconsin have to worry less about their own foul trouble, they don't have to worry as much about UK's "just take it ot the rack and try to draw a foul" strategy that they seem to fall back on when all else fails.
I give UK a slight advantage, but the only thing that would really surprise me is if either team wins by more than 15.