Seahawks Got Fleeced.....

[HaroldSeattle]

Case Keenum signed a 2 year $36M contract after that season with $25M of it guaranteed.

How did that work out for the suckers that signed him?

 

[NWPATSFAN]

I just have to laugh at how fans so quickly do a one eighty while patting themself on the back.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

I just have to laugh at how fans so quickly do a one eighty while patting themself on the back.

Oh I thought Geno would suck ass and was not the answer and was fully intent on walking Drew Lock out there to see if the guy had anything before drafting a QB next year. Geno surprised me.

What I did get right was Wilson and the Broncos not being Super Bowl bound which all the analysts, fans, etc. were saying. I said numerous times on this board prior to the season they'd be lucky to win the division let alone make the playoffs.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

Oh I thought Geno would suck ass and was not the answer and was fully intent on walking Drew Lock out there to see if the guy had anything before drafting a QB next year. Geno surprised me.

What I did get right was Wilson and the Broncos not being Super Bowl bound which all the analysts, fans, etc. were saying. I said numerous times on this board prior to the season they'd be lucky to win the division let alone make the playoffs.

The Wilson trade might become the Hershel Walker trade part Deux.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

The Wilson trade might become the Hershel Walker trade part Deux.

Walker was at least productive though for Minnesota. Still averaged 4 YPC for a few years with Minny, neared 10 TDs on only averaging around 200 attempts.... And he averaged 4+ yards for most of his career in Minnesota, he just started getting limited snaps (not like the 350+ he had in one year with Dallas).

As of right now, Wilson is one of the worst QBs in the league. But we're only halfway through the season so who knows. I could potentially see Wilson turn it around... but they need to get him moving outside the pocket more. The fact all the analysts/fans were raving about the fact he'd actually have a run game (which he NEEDS, some QBs don't rely on it as much, Wilson does), and then similar to Seattle in so many years the starting runningback went down early is kind of poetic justice LOL.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

Walker was at least productive though for Minnesota. Still averaged 4 YPC for a few years with Minny, neared 10 TDs on only averaging around 200 attempts.... And he averaged 4+ yards for most of his career in Minnesota, he just started getting limited snaps (not like the 350+ he had in one year with Dallas).

As of right now, Wilson is one of the worst QBs in the league. But we're only halfway through the season so who knows. I could potentially see Wilson turn it around... but they need to get him moving outside the pocket more. The fact all the analysts/fans were raving about the fact he'd actually have a run game (which he NEEDS, some QBs don't rely on it as much, Wilson does), and then similar to Seattle in so many years the starting runningback went down early is kind of poetic justice LOL.

yeah but the trade ended up crippling Minny for years.
If Wilson doesnt fix himself. Denver will be fucked.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

yeah but the trade ended up crippling Minny for years.
If Wilson doesnt fix himself. Denver will be fucked.

Eh the trade wasn't too bad... the contract is structured in a way where his major cap hit comes when they could actually cut him and save money... that will cripple them a bit, but the contract structure wasn't bad.

As for the picks... Seattle gave up almost as much for Jamal Adams (granted one of the picks was guaranteed to be late in the 1st) and they still turned it around. The Walker trade was flat out ridiculous in terms of the picks they gave up though, lol.... 3 seasons worth of 1st and 2nd round picks? LOL the fuck?

I still think Walker will stand as the worst trade of all time... it was really the ridiculous expectation all the analysts and fans had that blew my mind with Wilson. You've got a QB approaching mid 30s, who has shown his lost mobility which negatively favors his tendency to drop way too far back and hold onto the ball forever, coming off an injured season that when he did come back looked... meh (yah he did OKAY against absolute garbage teams where his RB also went off for nearly 200 yards every game).. going into a team with a new HC, new DC, new OL coach... traded away a good downfield TE and your best DL... with an equal OL (I love how PFF graded them basically equal to Seattle last season but at the start of this season they suddenly soared to a top 5-10 OL LOL), a backup RB approaching 30, a one year wonder at WR, a potential but never proven other WR, in what was forecasted to be the toughest division...

But, "THE BRONCOS NOW HAVE A CHANCE AT A SUPER BOWL!" Why that was a thing I'll never get.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

Eh the trade wasn't too bad... the contract is structured in a way where his major cap hit comes when they could actually cut him and save money... that will cripple them a bit, but the contract structure wasn't bad.

They cant cut Wilson until at earliest. 2026. Realistically 2027.

As for the picks... Seattle gave up almost as much for Jamal Adams (granted one of the picks was guaranteed to be late in the 1st) and they still turned it around. The Walker trade was flat out ridiculous in terms of the picks they gave up though, lol.... 3 seasons worth of 1st and 2nd round picks? LOL the fuck?

Make no mistake. The Walker trade will be the all time best/worst trade ever. Which is why I say part deux.
Vikings sold their future (draft picks & players) because they thought they were one player away.
Denver sold their future (draft picks & players) because they thought they were one player away.

The new contract is what makes this trade worse & magnifies the crippling of their future.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

They cant cut Wilson until at earliest. 2026. Realistically 2027.

True, but his cap hit outside of 2025 is not horrible, so they can still acquire some pieces. The downside is if he is 'done' and his arm (pec/finger issues) and more importantly mobility is gone... yah, you're stuck with mediocre play for the next 3-4 seasons. Seattle was stuck with Adams who basically was a no show for his time here... so that was also a stupid trade, but obviously safeties earn less money and don't take up the capital for the most important position in all of sports.

What Seattle did that the Jets failed to do was HIT on at least 1 draft so far. Cross, Mafe, Walker all look great. Cross is not by any means elite (he's slightly above average according to PFF), but he's 21.... lol.... by the time he's halfway through his rookie contract you'd expect a vast difference just due to bulking up a bit more and getting experience.

 

[ducky]

How did that work out for the suckers that signed him?

Whether it works out or not is kind of irrelevant. What we are talking about is what his contract is going to be.

He has proven thus far that he is a legit NFL starting QB right now. And every legit starting QB in the league is either on a rookie deal or makes $30-$50M AAV contract.

So unless you think he is going to fall on his face and not be thought of as a legit starting QB by the end of the year, the numbers I am mentioning is just what his market value is.

Pretty simple choices.
- You can sign Geno to probably about a $40M AAV.
- You can sign a guy that the rest of the league doesn't view as a true legit starter like Baker Mayfield, Mitch Trubisky, ect to a contract much smaller than that
- You can get a starter in the draft.

Them's the choices. Not great options. Right? Welcome to Sofia's choice scenario for NFL GM's that dont have a legit franchise QB on the roster. Been like this for quite a long time. You just might not have noticed as much because your team has had a franchise QB for a long time now.

And it is in this environment that 30-40% of the league is viewing the QB market this offseason. It is why Geno will be as worth as much as he is. Because there aren't a lot of really killer options out there. Every one of them entails a lot of risk.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Whether it works out or not is kind of irrelevant. What we are talking about is what his contract is going to be.

He has proven thus far that he is a legit NFL starting QB right now. And every legit starting QB in the league is either on a rookie deal or makes $30-$50M AAV contract.

So unless you think he is going to fall on his face and not be thought of as a legit starting QB by the end of the year, the numbers I am mentioning is just what his market value is.

Pretty simple choices.
- You can sign Geno to probably about a $40M AAV.
- You can sign a guy that the rest of the league doesn't view as a true legit starter like Baker Mayfield, Mitch Trubisky, ect to a contract much smaller than that
- You can get a starter in the draft.

Them's the choices. Not great options. Right? Welcome to Sofia's choice scenario for NFL GM's that dont have a legit franchise QB on the roster. Been like this for quite a long time. You just might not have noticed as much because your team has had a franchise QB for a long time now.

And it is in this environment that 30-40% of the league is viewing the QB market this offseason. It is why Geno will be as worth as much as he is. Because there aren't a lot of really killer options out there. Every one of them entails a lot of risk.

I can't imagine Geno is going to warrant that large a contract on the market. It'll be mid-high 20s.

First off, if Wilson stays on his course (including Geno), everyone is going to think Pete is getting more out of his QBs than other coaches would (which is something). Walker is tearing it up and Geno has a legit run game and two of the better wideouts in the league... and Waldron who may very well be a head coach in a year or two.

Second, Geno prior to 9 games in (season isn't even done lol) did fuck all. He bounced around the league, certainly didn't beat out Wilson, and wasn't exactly tearing it up last season when Wilson was out (which as a backup that's hard to do, you're not as prepared and don't practice much with the 1st team - also, Seattle didn't have a run game in those games).

If anyone is going to pay Geno $40M a year, let him walk.... That would be an AUTO F grade from me.

 

[Anointed One]

I just have to laugh at how fans so quickly do a one eighty while patting themself on the back.

Wilson going to the Broncos

deal is in the works

sportshoop.la

 

[ducky]

I can't imagine Geno is going to warrant that large a contract on the market. It'll be mid-high 20s.

First off, if Wilson stays on his course (including Geno), everyone is going to think Pete is getting more out of his QBs than other coaches would (which is something). Walker is tearing it up and Geno has a legit run game and two of the better wideouts in the league... and Waldron who may very well be a head coach in a year or two.

Second, Geno prior to 9 games in (season isn't even done lol) did fuck all. He bounced around the league, certainly didn't beat out Wilson, and wasn't exactly tearing it up last season when Wilson was out (which as a backup that's hard to do, you're not as prepared and don't practice much with the 1st team - also, Seattle didn't have a run game in those games).

If anyone is going to pay Geno $40M a year, let him walk.... That would be an AUTO F grade from me.

What are you basing that on? People are just pulling numbers out of their ass.

David Carr just inked a a 3 year $121M contract this last offseason. And Geno is outperforming him. Why would Geno's agent walk into a room get offered almost half of what a comparable QB is making and say yes to that? Especially when Seattle AT MINIMUM would have to pay him $31.5M for one season and then $40M in year 2 on the franchise tag?

.....I will say that I am bad at math. Last night I added up $31.5M and $40M and said it equaled $81M. But that $71M number is very important when negotiating. That is the BARE minimum number his agent can take over the 1st two years of a deal with Seattle. Because if he doesn't get those numbers, he is better off forcing Seattle (or whatever team wants to trade for him) to pay him that under a multi year tag.

Unless his agent doesn't think he is a legit starting QB too. But I highly doubt that is going to be the case.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

What are you basing that on? People are just pulling numbers out of their ass.

David Carr just inked a a 3 year $121M contract this last offseason. And Geno is outperforming him. Why would Geno's agent walk into a room get offered almost half of what a comparable QB is making and say yes to that? Especially when Seattle AT MINIMUM would have to pay him $31.5M for one season and then $40M in year 2 on the franchise tag?

.....I will say that I am bad at math. Last night I added up $31.5M and $40M and said it equaled $81M. But that $71M number is very important when negotiating. That is the BARE minimum number his agent can get take over the 1st two years of a deal with Seattle. Because if he doesn't get those numbers, he is better off forcing Seattle (or whatever team wants to trade for him) to pay him that under a multi year tag.

Unless his agent doesn't think he is a legit starting QB too. But I highly doubt that is going to be the case.

David Carr got resigned!? OH MAN! Can't believe he came out retirement! Okay I'll stop being an asshole, I know you meant Derek.

Derek has been a starter for numerous seasons and been serviceable. Career average 92 QB rating with a few pretty good seasons. Is Geno playing better through 9 games this year? Yes. Has Geno been a season starter for 8 straight seasons? NO. Are the Raiders as good as Seattle right now or had as cupcake of a schedule (due to all the injuries Seattle's opponents had)? NO. Is David ermm Derek (lol, okay I'll stop) 1.5 years younger than Geno? Yes.

So I'm basing it on that. If he does continue his trend, it's potentially a one year wonder. We all saw what happen with Flacco... is some team dumb enough to do that again? Well... we'll see.

 

[Scooby-Doo]

I smell a thread bump coming...

Reminds me of my younger self

 

[ANGELAKERAMS]

This trade and Geno’s success this year shows that some QB’s just need the right system to be successful, and that not all QB’s can be successful in any system.

Russell is struggling outside of Carroll’s system, and Geno struggled outside of Carroll’s system.

It does help that Seattle finally fixed their OL. I’m sure Russell is thrilled they waited until after he left to finally fix it.

 

[ducky]

David Carr got resigned!? OH MAN! Can't believe he came out retirement! Okay I'll stop being an asshole, I know you meant Derek.

Derek has been a starter for numerous seasons and been serviceable. Career average 92 QB rating with a few pretty good seasons. Is Geno playing better through 9 games this year? Yes. Has Geno been a season starter for 8 straight seasons? NO. Are the Raiders as good as Seattle right now or had as cupcake of a schedule (due to all the injuries Seattle's opponents had)? NO. Is David ermm Derek (lol, okay I'll stop) 1.5 years younger than Geno? Yes.

So I'm basing it on that. If he does continue his trend, it's potentially a one year wonder. We all saw what happen with Flacco... is some team dumb enough to do that again? Well... we'll see.

Flacco was a multi year starter when he got his big deal. Just won a SB. Another situation where the Ravens had no choice but to make that move. That was his value at the time.

But there are a TON of one year wonders getting top contracts in the NFL. And you are right, they rarely work out. Scott Mitchel and Matt Cassel are the ones that pop to mind. But again two players that only had one good season under their belt that got monster deals.

But there also are some examples of late blooming QB's too. Guys like Rich Gannon, Steve Young.

And I am not saying what Geno is going to be in the future. I am just talking about his market value. And I guarentee you with the lack of starting QB options on the market right now, Geno if he continues to play like he has this year will have some team willing to give him this contract.

People have to realize that GM's RARELY ever care about the long term health of the franchise they are in charge of. All they care about is if they have a job next year. And the GM's in places like Indy, Carolina, Washington might only have next year to win games and save their jobs. And a rookie QB doesnt do that.

So their option comes to paying a guy like Geno top dollar or hoping that paying a guy like Baker Mayfied half that can get a team to the playoffs. And when your only 2 choices are Geno or Baker on a single year to save your job, who you going to go with? As a GM you can worry about Geno's cap hit in future years. With Baker you wont have to worry about it because you likely wont have a job.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Flacco was a multi year starter when he got his big deal. Just won a SB. Another situation where the Ravens had no choice but to make that move. That was his value at the time.

But there are a TON of one year wonders getting top contracts in the NFL. And you are right, they rarely work out. Scott Mitchel and Matt Cassel are the ones that pop to mind. But again two players that only had one good season under their belt that got monster deals.

But there also are some examples of late blooming QB's too. Guys like Rich Gannon, Steve Young.

And I am not saying what Geno is going to be in the future. I am just talking about his market value. And I guarentee you with the lack of starting QB options on the market right now, Geno if he continues to play like he has this year will have some team willing to give him this contract.

People have to realize that GM's RARELY ever care about the long term health of the franchise they are in charge of. All they care about is if they have a job next year. And the GM's in places like Indy, Carolina, Washington might only have next year to win games and save their jobs. And a rookie QB doesnt do that.

So their option comes to paying a guy like Geno top dollar or hoping that paying a guy like Baker Mayfied half that can get a team to the playoffs. And when your only 2 choices are Geno or Baker on a single year to save your job, who you going to go with? As a GM you can worry about Geno's cap hit in future years. With Baker you wont have to worry about it because you likely wont have a job.

Oh I get what you're saying... I just don't think given his history and especially if Wilson fails in Denver and coaches think "Hmm was Wilson because of Carroll?" that Geno will get a massive contract... It's all an opinion. I also think that if the trend continues a LOT of FOs are going to shy away from QBs this upcoming FA because all the ones with MASSIVE contracts (Rodgers, Murray, Wilson, Watson - although suspended, I still think that is an F grade) have done fuck all and been a detriment to their team. I think the QB market may crash.

In addition, NCAAF seems to be adapting to more pro style or passing oriented offenses because collegiate level QBs want to go to a place where they can get NFL ready, and the NFL is very much a passing league. Yah some classes are bound to suck (like last year, but now this year there's 7 viable starters in rounds 1-2), but I think Colleges are going to start pouring out more NFL ready QBs which is financially advantageous to NFL teams.

As for Seattle's options? Well it's not coming down to paying a guy like Mayfield and not just Geno/Baker... not sure what the hell you're saying there. Certainly it would be drafting a new QB on a rookie deal (or scouting around the league) and they have the draft ammunition to do it. I don't see them paying Smith $40M per year... But hey, if Smith gets to the SBOWL, wins MVP... (that's still a major reach, we're 9 games in...), could they? Sure. I'm assuming that's your line of thinking because if Seattle gets to a wild card and goes one and done, paying $40M at that point would be fuckin' ridiculous.

 

[Scooby-Doo]

No team is going to do that.

I don't know. If Matt Flynn can grab the bag after one game...

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

I don't know. If Matt Flynn can grab the bag after one game...

It was roughly $6M a year with HALF being guaranteed... Brady/Manning, etc. were making 2.5x as much. Not quite the same thing...

Course then you look at Flacco... had a good playoff/SBOWL run and bush brow got it big... to @ducky 's point, I believe some team would be willing to pay Geno assuming he finishes out the season like he is.... I'd question if it would be $40M though... Some older QBs like Steve Young, etc. while they were paid, the emphasis and cap command of the QB back then is not the same as today.... $40M a year for one player who is approaching mid 30s and has done fuck all up until now, who is aided by let's not forget a pretty damn good offense (talent wise and Waldron who was largely responsible for the Rams great O when they were younger).... ??? I question it.

It's all a forecast. I'm taking one side, ducky is taking another....