Atlantas D is not very good but is playing better. If you want a real idea the DVOA for the Pats D is 16th in the league, Atlantas is 27th. In other words the Pats D is slightly better than average while Atlantas defense is below average. There's all kinds of ways to look at adjusted data and more recent data that show both defenses playing marginally better over recent games but the truth is neither D is equipped to stop the other teams offense. That means the outcome will come down to what team makes more mistakes
Atlanta isn't going to do anything special this game on offense. The Falcons use motion and formations to create the matchups they want to exploit. Them they utilize the best group of skill position players in the league to take advantage of those mismatches. The problem for NE is they just don't have the requisite talent to stop it from happening. You can scheme all day but when the guy you're covering is bigger, faster, stronger it's really irrelevant. NE offensively will need to be more worried than Atlanta because apart from Edelman and maybe Lewis none of their skill guys is more talented than the man who will be covering them. More experienced? Yes
Yeah it's not just about the players and their talent. Atlanta runs more motion and different route combos than any team in the league with the ability to run 2 or 3 different combinations out of each set via check and all the wideouts and backs can line up at any position so you can't really travel a CB because them you're asking all 4 or 5 of your DBS you know 100+ different formations, motions and route combos and not only at their position but every other position too. It's literally impossible to learn in 2 weeks. It took the offense 18 months to iron it out. That's why all this talk of what the Pats are going to do with Julio is hilarious because Julio will be lined up 50+ different ways come Sunday with 150 different route combos out of all those sets. Like I said what Belichick does is irrelevant because even if you could scheme something up to "stop" what Atlanta does you could never teach it in time. What slows Atlanta down is pressure from the front 4 and not simply pressure via "collapsing the pocket" because Atlanta utilizes a moving pocket with their zone run scheme. You need pressure and you need to get home OR you need to hope Atlanta stops themselves. That's really pretty much it
Every year it's different. If the Pats shut down the Fabulous Falcons will you consider them elite? Or will the narrative be: "Atlanta offense just did not play well, they beat themselves," blah, blah
