Russell Wilson: 'Great Potential' Next Contract Is Biggest in NFL History

[chf]

Well the position is so important, that even having a mediocre one is much preferable to having to try to make the playoffs with a decent team around a lousy QB.

QB is like the goalie in hockey, you don't have to have a superstar, but if you have a lousy one you're fooked.

 

[blstoker]

I'm not advocating getting rid of Wilson, on the contrary - I want to keep him. I was just pointing out that there is a salary level where it becomes unlikely for a team to win a championship if they pay a single player above that. If Wilson wants more championships - he'll take that into consideration.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Does it though? Look at rogers. The years they were SB caliber he wasn't making much. After his salary ballooned they became mediocre.

The Seahawks reached their SB's with a QB that wasn't making much and had the money to go get free agents to fill in holes.

Of course I'm not suggesting they need to trade him, but if he makes $35m/yr + I wouldn't say they have a SB window with as thin as they will leave themselves in payroll. And yes, the ability to pick up one or two free agents of higher caliber does make that kind of difference to a deep playoff run

I'm hoping they get something done soon then we hold our breath hoping the new CBA drastically increases the salary cap.

Some are projecting a 30% increase. If that happened, Wilson's cap hit as a percentage of salary cap would likely be similar to what it is now.

 

[seahawksfan234]

I'm not advocating getting rid of Wilson, on the contrary - I want to keep him. I was just pointing out that there is a salary level where it becomes unlikely for a team to win a championship if they pay a single player above that. If Wilson wants more championships - he'll take that into consideration.

He has been very open about how he wants to eventually own a franchise. Additionally, he's part of the group that's pushing hard to bring an MLB team to Portland.

Obviously he cares about football and winning, but these contract demands make me believe that his desire to win is superseded by his ambition to own a franchise.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Since 2013, the highest paid QB in the NFL (against the cap) has gone 46-49 in the regular season and 0-1 in the playoffs. Super Bowl winning QBs have not accounted for more than 12.21% of the total cap of their team, and average 7.45%.

Since the salary cap era began, no QB earning more than 13.1% of the cap has won the Super Bowl - Steve Young in 1994. Turns out, that was abnormal. Only 7 Super Bowl winners out of the last 26 have earned as much as 10%, just about 1/4. Only Tom Brady has been able to win 2 Super Bowls while making 10% or more of their team's cap.

Now, if Russell wants to win another Super Bowl, the numbers say he needs to leave about $10 million a year on the table and go for a contract closer to $25 million a year. If it's about milking the money - then getting $35 million a year should be what he's looking for.

Super Bowl Winners:

1994 - Steve Young - 13.1%
1995 - Troy Aikman - 6.7%
1996 - Brett Favre - 10.2%
1997 - John Elway - 5.2%
1998 - John Elway - 5.0%
1999 - Kurt Warner - 1.3%
2000 - Trent Dilfer - 1.6%
2001 - Tom Brady - 0.5%
2002 - Brad Johnson - 9.6%
2003 - Tom Brady - 4.4%
2004 - Tom Brady - 6.3%
2005 - Ben Roethlisberger - 4.9%
2006 - Peyton Manning - 10.4%
2007 - Eli Manning - 9.2%
2008 - Ben Roethlisberger - 6.8%
2009 - Drew Brees - 8.3%
2011 - Eli Manning - 11.7%
2021 - Joe Flacco - 6.6%
2013 - Russell Wilson - 0.5%
2014 - Tom Brady - 10.6%
2015 - Peyton Manning - 11.7%
2016 - Tom Brady - 8.6%
2017 - Nick Foles - 0.9%
2018 - Tom Brady - 12.2%

Man I love the research you put into your posts. Props.

 

[blstoker]

Some are projecting a 30% increase. If that happened, Wilson's cap hit as a percentage of salary cap would likely be similar to what it is now.

Some are claiming that Russ wants to wait for that 30% increase, so he can ask for even more money once the new CBA happens. We'll see if there's anything to that - or just people speculating about why he hasn't re-signed.

He has been very open about how he wants to eventually own a franchise. Additionally, he's part of the group that's pushing hard to bring an MLB team to Portland.

Obviously he cares about football and winning, but these contract demands make me believe that his desire to win is superseded by his ambition to own a franchise.

I know

Man I love the research you put into your posts. Props.

Thank You, I try.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Now, if Russell wants to win another Super Bowl, the numbers say he needs to leave about $10 million a year on the table and go for a contract closer to $25 million a year.

I don't see Russell Wilson leaving 10 mil on the table. 35 mil sounds about right, could be a tad more. What ever he gets,will be surpassed very quickly. Think the Seahawks would be trilled if they could get him to sign for 33 mil, which is my guess on what they are offering to begin with.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

this thread makes me sad.

He's too Hollywood!

fucking hell

I know right! I think Polar is too Hollywood.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Some are claiming that Russ wants to wait for that 30% increase, so he can ask for even more money once the new CBA happens. We'll see if there's anything to that - or just people speculating about why he hasn't re-signed.



I know



Thank You, I try.

I think it works out for him either way. Barring some career altering injury, he will get paid no matter what.

 

[blstoker]

I don't see Russell Wilson leaving 10 mil on the table. 35 mil sounds about right, could be a tad more. What ever he gets,will be surpassed very quickly. Think the Seahawks would be trilled if they could get him to sign for 33 mil, which is my guess on what they are offering to begin with.

I honestly don't see him leaving anything on the table, either. He's never shown to this point that he wanted to give his team a discount (a la Brady), and there's nothing wrong with that. If there is a huge increase in salary cap with the new CBA (as some are projecting) - then this could be a moot point anyway, as $35 million of $245 million is only 14.2%, and not the 18% it would be at the current cap.

Again, I am not advocating for Wilson to walk, or even that he should think of the Seahawks before himself. Honestly, I think Wilson should get the dollar amount he is comfortable playing under.

 

[flyerhawk]

Since 2013, the highest paid QB in the NFL (against the cap) has gone 46-49 in the regular season and 0-1 in the playoffs. Super Bowl winning QBs have not accounted for more than 12.21% of the total cap of their team, and average 7.45%.

Since the salary cap era began, no QB earning more than 13.1% of the cap has won the Super Bowl - Steve Young in 1994. Turns out, that was abnormal. Only 7 Super Bowl winners out of the last 26 have earned as much as 10%, just about 1/4. Only Tom Brady has been able to win 2 Super Bowls while making 10% or more of their team's cap.

Now, if Russell wants to win another Super Bowl, the numbers say he needs to leave about $10 million a year on the table and go for a contract closer to $25 million a year. If it's about milking the money - then getting $35 million a year should be what he's looking for.

Super Bowl Winners:

1994 - Steve Young - 13.1%
1995 - Troy Aikman - 6.7%
1996 - Brett Favre - 10.2%
1997 - John Elway - 5.2%
1998 - John Elway - 5.0%
1999 - Kurt Warner - 1.3%
2000 - Trent Dilfer - 1.6%
2001 - Tom Brady - 0.5%
2002 - Brad Johnson - 9.6%
2003 - Tom Brady - 4.4%
2004 - Tom Brady - 6.3%
2005 - Ben Roethlisberger - 4.9%
2006 - Peyton Manning - 10.4%
2007 - Eli Manning - 9.2%
2008 - Ben Roethlisberger - 6.8%
2009 - Drew Brees - 8.3%
2011 - Eli Manning - 11.7%
2021 - Joe Flacco - 6.6%
2013 - Russell Wilson - 0.5%
2014 - Tom Brady - 10.6%
2015 - Peyton Manning - 11.7%
2016 - Tom Brady - 8.6%
2017 - Nick Foles - 0.9%
2018 - Tom Brady - 12.2%

Another way to say this is that winning multiple Super Bowls is pretty hard and Tom Brady was in a unique position of having a wife that made more money than he does.

Not sure what other option a team has. Either pay your QB or roll the dice on a new QB when the odds are heavily against you hitting on one.

 

[flyerhawk]

I honestly don't see him leaving anything on the table, either. He's never shown to this point that he wanted to give his team a discount (a la Brady), and there's nothing wrong with that. If there is a huge increase in salary cap with the new CBA (as some are projecting) - then this could be a moot point anyway, as $35 million of $245 million is only 14.2%, and not the 18% it would be at the current cap.

Again, I am not advocating for Wilson to walk, or even that he should think of the Seahawks before himself. Honestly, I think Wilson should get the dollar amount he is comfortable playing under.

Very few players are willing to give a discount. If you have a wife making $30 million a year, it is probably a bit of an easier decision to make.

 

[blstoker]

Very few players are willing to give a discount. If you have a wife making $30 million a year, it is probably a bit of an easier decision to make.

I am not advocating for Wilson to give a discount. I never suggested he would, could or should take any dollar amount as his contract. Just pointed out numbers as it pertains to Super Bowls and how much the QB makes. Maybe Wilson can buck the trend......

 

[flyerhawk]

I am not advocating for Wilson to give a discount. I never suggested he would, could or should take any dollar amount as his contract. Just pointed out numbers as it pertains to Super Bowls and how much the QB makes. Maybe Wilson can buck the trend......

The only thing I would say about that trend is that you don't have a baseline.

IOW, what is the likelihood of a team that doesn't have a highly paid QB winning the Super Bowl?

 

[blstoker]

The only thing I would say about that trend is that you don't have a baseline.

IOW, what is the likelihood of a team that doesn't have a highly paid QB winning the Super Bowl?

Baseline is 13.1% of a teams salary cap. Since no QB has won a Super Bowl in the salary cap era earning more than that - then it's a pretty obvious line. Or, 12.1% - since no QB in the last 24 championships has won earning more than that. It's not in $'s cause the $'s of the cap change - but unless the cap goes up 40% over the life of his contract - with his yearly cap hit not exceeding $35 million in any given year - Russell will not be under either of those marks, or even close to those marks, moving forward at $35 million. So, if you don't like the baseline, that's fine, but there is a baseline.

As for highly paid QB, depends on what your definition of highly paid is. $25 million against the cap, the number I offered as being a discount option if Russell wanted to stay around 12.25%? No QB that has counted $25 million against the cap has ever won the Super Bowl, though to be fair - it's been a very recent development that anyone would could $25 million against the cap. $10 million? Well, there have been several - but we'd all agree that Russell ain't ever playing for just $10 million again.

10% of the team's cap? 7 of the last 25 were higher than 10%, so 72% of Super Bowl winners weren't highly paid.

The original topic was whether the highest paid QB has ever won the Super Bowl - and as far as I have seen - no. The highest paid QB in any given year has never won the Super Bowl that year, though I only know for any real idea dating back 30 years - though salary numbers become harder to find before 1994.

 

[flyerhawk]

Baseline is 13.1% of a teams salary cap. Since no QB has won a Super Bowl in the salary cap era earning more than that - then it's a pretty obvious line. Or, 12.1% - since no QB in the last 24 championships has won earning more than that. It's not in $'s cause the $'s of the cap change - but unless the cap goes up 40% over the life of his contract - with his yearly cap hit not exceeding $35 million in any given year - Russell will not be under either of those marks, or even close to those marks, moving forward at $35 million. So, if you don't like the baseline, that's fine, but there is a baseline.

As for highly paid QB, depends on what your definition of highly paid is. $25 million against the cap, the number I offered as being a discount option if Russell wanted to stay around 12.25%? No QB that has counted $25 million against the cap has ever won the Super Bowl, though to be fair - it's been a very recent development that anyone would could $25 million against the cap. $10 million? Well, there have been several - but we'd all agree that Russell ain't ever playing for just $10 million again.

10% of the team's cap? 7 of the last 25 were higher than 10%, so 72% of Super Bowl winners weren't highly paid.

The original topic was whether the highest paid QB has ever won the Super Bowl - and as far as I have seen - no. The highest paid QB in any given year has never won the Super Bowl that year, though I only know for any real idea dating back 30 years - though salary numbers become harder to find before 1994.

How many QBs have been paid more than 13% of their team’s salary cap?

I also think that you should include QBs that have lost the Super Bowl because a single game is a big variable.

But it boils down to this. The best path to winning a Super Bowl is drafting a really good QB. But the odds are not good to do that. The second best path is having an extremely good QB

 

[blstoker]

How many QBs have been paid more than 13% of their team’s salary cap?

I also think that you should include QBs that have lost the Super Bowl because a single game is a big variable.

Those are interesting points....what's stopping you from answering them?

 

[flyerhawk]

Those are interesting points....what's stopping you from answering them?

General laziness.

I wasn't criticizing you, ftr. Your points were interesting. But analytics should involve as much data as can be provided.

 

[blstoker]

General laziness.

I wasn't criticizing you, ftr. Your points were interesting. But analytics should involve as much data as can be provided.

Pre-2011 salary information is difficult to find, and in some years the only info I found was the percentage of the team's salary by the winning Super Bowl QB. Pre-1994, I didn't even have that - though I was able to find who the highest paid QB was each year from 1989-1992. The reason I'm not clamoring for more data is that I provided what I have, and what little I believe I could find I just don't have the time to comb through each team/player for the last 30 years to find it.

 

[flyerhawk]

Pre-2011 salary information is difficult to find, and in some years the only info I found was the percentage of the team's salary by the winning Super Bowl QB. Pre-1994, I didn't even have that - though I was able to find who the highest paid QB was each year from 1989-1992. The reason I'm not clamoring for more data is that I provided what I have, and what little I believe I could find I just don't have the time to comb through each team/player for the last 30 years to find it.

That's totally reasonable. I don't think you need to provide anymore data. But I also don't think the data you provide is conclusive of anything.

Beyond what I already mentioned, there is also the fact that not all big money QB contracts are created equal. Aaron Rodgers getting paid huge money is very different than Joe Flacco getting paid huge money.