Reds Thread

[cincygrad]

Happy opening day Reds fans!! The owner is publicly mocking fans that are complaining about the god-awful product that is being put on the field this year. The Reds futility will easily extend another year. Meanwhile, the only bright spot for today's game will be the beginning when Zac Taylor, Joe Burrow, and JaMarr Chase are present for the festivities. Only a few months left before football season!!

 

[cincygrad]

In case anyone wonders who really owns the Cincinnati sports market:

 

[Cincyfan78]

In case anyone wonders who really owns the Cincinnati sports market:

It's amazing what spending a little bit of money, winning some games, and just trying to put your best foot forward with fans can do....there was no one more loathed than Mike Brown and the Bengals for the better part of 2 decades.

Castillini is the Mike Brown of the Reds...the faster he realizes this and fixes his approach to owning a sports team, the better off he will be. As I said in the other thread - hire good people, let them do their job, put a winning product on the field - and you will be able to generate more revenue. You can't cry poor while putting crap product on the field and then point to 12K attendance in September as reason why you don't spend.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

It's amazing what spending a little bit of money, winning some games, and just trying to put your best foot forward with fans can do....there was no one more loathed than Mike Brown and the Bengals for the better part of 2 decades.

Castillini is the Mike Brown of the Reds...the faster he realizes this and fixes his approach to owning a sports team, the better off he will be. As I said in the other thread - hire good people, let them do their job, put a winning product on the field - and you will be able to generate more revenue. You can't cry poor while putting crap product on the field and then point to 12K attendance in September as reason why you don't spend.

It is not about spending money, it is about spending it wisely. The Reds have spent lots of money and it was working as far as getting them to a point. But contracts like Moustakas, Bailey, etc. Have hamstringed this team, especially when every contract is 100% guaranteed. small market MLB teams are working behind the 8-ball when it comes to this. I am not defending Cast. I am just saying, the landscape of the financial portion of the two sports is dramatic.

In the NFL, they negotiate tv contracts as an overall organization, they take that entire tv revenue, put a percent on it, not sure what it is, 80 to 85% of what the tv revenue is, split that nut 32 ways, that is what each teams cap is. Owners do not have to worry ever about paying its players, it is already built in for the salaries. Where it gets tough is the fully guaranteed contract when they are massive and you have to take all that money now and throw it into an account you can't touch or do anything with. However, if there is no guarantee, or the contract is guaranteed, but you don't have to put money away for it, then you know you can pay that player, it just has to be for the full length of the contract.

The NFL never has to worry about it. Salaries are going to be guaranteed in the respect that the tv revenue covers all teams salaries, plus some. In MLB, it is what each team negotiates, and obviously not all markets are equal. A star for a small market that signs the big deal, then turns into an average to below average players on a massive guaranteed contract, that team is trying to suffer through that for a decade. Teams like the Dodgers who get $500 million a year from their local deal with Fox, with the luxury tax not even being at $300 million. They can buy and do whatever the hell they want without a contract ever strapping them. A Trevor Bauer goes to LA, becomes worthless, even though he is making $40 million, with no cap and carry over. LA just gets rid of him and doesn't blink.

A team like the Reds. They are done. $40 million dollars a year guaranteed on a team spending $115 million, well, you better have a whole herd of prospects ready to come up and give you cheap play for 4 to 5 years.

The NFL is just built differently than any other sport which is why it is so amazing, and there is so much parity. The Watson deal could be the beginning of the end for smaller market teams if they don't change how money is ear marked for these guaranteed contracts.

 

[Cincyfan78]

It is not about spending money, it is about spending it wisely. The Reds have spent lots of money and it was working as far as getting them to a point. But contracts like Moustakas, Bailey, etc. Have hamstringed this team, especially when every contract is 100% guaranteed. small market MLB teams are working behind the 8-ball when it comes to this. I am not defending Cast. I am just saying, the landscape of the financial portion of the two sports is dramatic.

In the NFL, they negotiate tv contracts as an overall organization, they take that entire tv revenue, put a percent on it, not sure what it is, 80 to 85% of what the tv revenue is, split that nut 32 ways, that is what each teams cap is. Owners do not have to worry ever about paying its players, it is already built in for the salaries. Where it gets tough is the fully guaranteed contract when they are massive and you have to take all that money now and throw it into an account you can't touch or do anything with. However, if there is no guarantee, or the contract is guaranteed, but you don't have to put money away for it, then you know you can pay that player, it just has to be for the full length of the contract.

The NFL never has to worry about it. Salaries are going to be guaranteed in the respect that the tv revenue covers all teams salaries, plus some. In MLB, it is what each team negotiates, and obviously not all markets are equal. A star for a small market that signs the big deal, then turns into an average to below average players on a massive guaranteed contract, that team is trying to suffer through that for a decade. Teams like the Dodgers who get $500 million a year from their local deal with Fox, with the luxury tax not even being at $300 million. They can buy and do whatever the hell they want without a contract ever strapping them. A Trevor Bauer goes to LA, becomes worthless, even though he is making $40 million, with no cap and carry over. LA just gets rid of him and doesn't blink.

A team like the Reds. They are done. $40 million dollars a year guaranteed on a team spending $115 million, well, you better have a whole herd of prospects ready to come up and give you cheap play for 4 to 5 years.

The NFL is just built differently than any other sport which is why it is so amazing, and there is so much parity. The Watson deal could be the beginning of the end for smaller market teams if they don't change how money is ear marked for these guaranteed contracts.

And there is a model for "small" market franchises.

Walt and Williams tried to follow that model. Bob refused to sell high on players he personally liked...was too involved.

This team sits on $110-120 before they do a damned thing. If they averaged $25 a ticket for 25,000 fans averaged nightly on a winning team....across 81 home games...that's an additional $60M...That puts payroll at nearly $170 - $180M before you figure in suites, or the fact that you have $200-300 diamond seats...that's before everyone wants to advertise for a winning team...etc...etc...etc.... Even if you average less say 18,000 fans...that's still nearly $37M...that puts payroll between $147M - $157.

I'm not saying they need to be the Yankees or Red Sox. But they most certainly should not be the Marlins, either. I agree that you have to be smart with the signings, but you also can't cry poor as a reason to not invest in the team.

Bob is too involved as an owner with player decisions

Bob wants to make money to spend on the team rather than invest on the team to make money.

It's also telling what they think from the interview the other guy gave the other day....they are in this to profit - if the team is good, it's gravy on the top - but their bottom line will always be to turn a profit 1st. If there was any doubt about that before, he removed that doubt with his loud mouth on opening day.

 

[Cincyfan78]

It's also telling when former players leave and talk about how the organization is run - and the feeling amongst players is that they don't feel the owners are in it to win it.....

 

[CrashDavisSports]

And there is a model for "small" market franchises.

Walt and Williams tried to follow that model. Bob refused to sell high on players he personally liked...was too involved.

This team sits on $110-120 before they do a damned thing. If they averaged $25 a ticket for 25,000 fans averaged nightly on a winning team....across 81 home games...that's an additional $60M...That puts payroll at nearly $170 - $180M before you figure in suites, or the fact that you have $200-300 diamond seats...that's before everyone wants to advertise for a winning team...etc...etc...etc.... Even if you average less say 18,000 fans...that's still nearly $37M...that puts payroll between $147M - $157.

I'm not saying they need to be the Yankees or Red Sox. But they most certainly should not be the Marlins, either. I agree that you have to be smart with the signings, but you also can't cry poor as a reason to not invest in the team.

Bob is too involved as an owner with player decisions

Bob wants to make money to spend on the team rather than invest on the team to make money.

It's also telling what they think from the interview the other guy gave the other day....they are in this to profit - if the team is good, it's gravy on the top - but their bottom line will always be to turn a profit 1st. If there was any doubt about that before, he removed that doubt with his loud mouth on opening day.

The small market "plan" is to draft really well, and sell your good players when they are at their highest value before they get expensive. Then the haul you get for said player better be a bunch of good prospects that pan out. If you are not succeeding on these trades 3/4 times, you are not winning, but rather trying to fill holes with players that don't deserve anything more than AAAA filler pay.

If you go into rebuilding mode, you better not have a bunch of dead contracts on team, or expensive players you can't move because of value to production. Ken Griffey Jr. is something like the 5th highest paid player on the Reds this year. and will continue to be for the next several years.

Votto is the face of the franchise and still a good player, but if you are rebuilding, a guy like Votto only slows down the process, almost to a point that you are not rebuilding, but muddling through with a crap team unless you are swilling to go all in in FA. If you do that, you may be hampered with contracts that will make you irrelevant for over a decade if you don't get it right.

Guaranteed contracts are the death of a financially sound sports league.

 

[DanBengalfan]

I honestly used to love Reds baseball. but I haven't watched a game in years now. just don't have the patience for it, I miss Marge Schott and Pete Rose.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I honestly used to love Reds baseball. but I haven't watched a game in years now. just don't have the patience for it, I miss Marge Schott and Pete Rose.

I don't get the new channel. I stream from HULU - which doesn't carry Bally's Sports - I am actually very grateful for this, as Hulu has afforded me many frustration free nights...lol

As for the current state of the Reds - at least they finally appear to be all-in on a direction. I've always said, I can get behind a bad team that has a plan to get better. Even if it takes a few years. Problem with this ownership group since the 2010 team - they've refused to admit that the window was closed in 2013, and go all-in on a rebuild then. They continued to half-ass the roster between trying to find young guys coming up, selling off guys who wouldn't be a part of the future (holding on to them too late for lesser returns), and signing middling free agents that were neither going to improve the team, but were good enough to potentially block anyone below them from getting a legit shot...

Collier was an absolute steal in the draft. He could easily end up the best player. Elly De La Cruz is an absolute cheat-code right now between High A and crushing AA pitching. His skill set reminds me a ton of Eric Davis. Then add in the coup they got from the trades - actual pro-active trades that netted higher returns because they sold early rather than late - Reds Farm system, I think, was just ranked #4 after the trade deadline. They got some really solid players that could either help the big club in 2-3 years, or will be a part of other trades to land more immediately (in the future tense) needed positions.

Add in Senzel, India, Stephenson, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Greene - and if Berraro can get back to pre injury form (this year has been the exception to his history, not the rule) - they have the makings of a very nice young club. The big question down the road will be this: once the majority of these guys are ready, and called up - if they are at least good enough to hover around .500 - will ownership spend some money to fill in the gaps ('pen, positional, probably at least 1 starter) to get them over the hump to actually contend.

 

[cincygrad]

I haven't paid any attention to this season. I briefly watched the team last year when they seemed to be more competitive. I'm with @Cincyfan78 in that I think they would be easier to follow if they had a plan. They screwed up over a decade ago with the dumb Joey Votto deal and they've never really recovered. The only way to win in baseball as a small market team is to build from within and have a core group where you control their rights for several years. It looks like they are going to finally bite the bullet and collect as many prospects as possible. Not sure I'll care much by the time the plan develops, but I applaud the approach.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I haven't paid any attention to this season. I briefly watched the team last year when they seemed to be more competitive. I'm with @Cincyfan78 in that I think they would be easier to follow if they had a plan. They screwed up over a decade ago with the dumb Joey Votto deal and they've never really recovered. The only way to win in baseball as a small market team is to build from within and have a core group where you control their rights for several years. It looks like they are going to finally bite the bullet and collect as many prospects as possible. Not sure I'll care much by the time the plan develops, but I applaud the approach.

Yeah, you can't go all in on a guy like Votto (who at the time was "worth" the contract) and then cry poor when you don't field a team around him.

Speaking of the "crying poor" - it's a myth. The Reds break even before they even sell a ticket in most years thanks to the TV deals, radio, MLB sharing, etc....the tickets would more than cover a payroll of 150M in even bad years - and probably closer to 200M on really good years where you could charge more for some tickets, and more people are willing to spend to see a good product.

Even if they wanted to use the small market size as an excuse, the A's, Rays, Brewers, and a handfull of other small-er market clubs have shown there is a clear path to building a winner. I mean, even STL isn't that much bigger for Media - but they've been consistently so good over 15+ years, that they are averaging nearly 40K fans a night. Build a winner, keep them winning, and fans will show up, pay, and support. Keep doing whatever it is Bob C and Co. are doing, and you get what the Reds get...15-18K on a good night (excluding big time teams like Cubs, Cardinals, Yankees, Red Sox coming into town and those fans snapping up dirt cheap tickets).

 

[Cincyfan78]

Cincinnati Reds Farm System rated as 4th best by MLB Pipeline - redsminorleagues.com

The Cincinnati Reds farm system was rated as the 4th best in Major League Baseball this week by MLB Pipeline.

www.redsminorleagues.com

 

[cincygrad]

Well shit... The plan is working and working much quicker than I ever imagined. These guys are getting me interested. They aren't just good, but they are a bunch of fun to watch.

What is in the water in Cincinnati these days?

 

[Cincyfan78]

Well shit... The plan is working and working much quicker than I ever imagined. These guys are getting me interested. They aren't just good, but they are a bunch of fun to watch.

What is in the water in Cincinnati these days?

Yeah, they've certainly accelerated the timeline. McLain has been better than advertised, and he was highly rated...so that's saying something. Elly has been amazing to watch. More early "swings" in his play, but that is his MO at every stop - start hot, cool off, figure out how teams are pitching him, and then he takes off again. His overall tool-set is generational - he looks like a player you create in a game at nearly all 99's.

The pitching has been the issue - starters are still young and need to get more consistent to eat up more innings and help a, suprisingly, decent 'pen. Assuming Lodolo can make it back by end of July (which is the current timeframe) he would have roughly 8+ starts, and you get back, and Ashcraft will hopefully come back from this IL trip and figure some things out...with Green and Abbott - they need a solid 4th/5th guy that can eat up innings, and allow a guy like Lively to move to the long relief role giving them someone who can go 2-3 innings twice a week to save the 'pen from it's current usage rate.

That being said - it's all very doable as what they need won't cost a ton at the trade deadline - or in the off-season. Still have guys like Marte and others knocking on the door....

 

[cincygrad]

Yeah, they've certainly accelerated the timeline. McLain has been better than advertised, and he was highly rated...so that's saying something. Elly has been amazing to watch. More early "swings" in his play, but that is his MO at every stop - start hot, cool off, figure out how teams are pitching him, and then he takes off again. His overall tool-set is generational - he looks like a player you create in a game at nearly all 99's.

The pitching has been the issue - starters are still young and need to get more consistent to eat up more innings and help a, suprisingly, decent 'pen. Assuming Lodolo can make it back by end of July (which is the current timeframe) he would have roughly 8+ starts, and you get back, and Ashcraft will hopefully come back from this IL trip and figure some things out...with Green and Abbott - they need a solid 4th/5th guy that can eat up innings, and allow a guy like Lively to move to the long relief role giving them someone who can go 2-3 innings twice a week to save the 'pen from it's current usage rate.

That being said - it's all very doable as what they need won't cost a ton at the trade deadline - or in the off-season. Still have guys like Marte and others knocking on the door....

Given the weakness of the NL Central, there is no reason they can't compete for the division until the end of the summer - adding a few pitchers could put them over the top in the division. Should be fun either way.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Yeah, they've certainly accelerated the timeline. McLain has been better than advertised, and he was highly rated...so that's saying something. Elly has been amazing to watch. More early "swings" in his play, but that is his MO at every stop - start hot, cool off, figure out how teams are pitching him, and then he takes off again. His overall tool-set is generational - he looks like a player you create in a game at nearly all 99's.

The pitching has been the issue - starters are still young and need to get more consistent to eat up more innings and help a, suprisingly, decent 'pen. Assuming Lodolo can make it back by end of July (which is the current timeframe) he would have roughly 8+ starts, and you get back, and Ashcraft will hopefully come back from this IL trip and figure some things out...with Green and Abbott - they need a solid 4th/5th guy that can eat up innings, and allow a guy like Lively to move to the long relief role giving them someone who can go 2-3 innings twice a week to save the 'pen from it's current usage rate.

That being said - it's all very doable as what they need won't cost a ton at the trade deadline - or in the off-season. Still have guys like Marte and others knocking on the door....

You have that Phillips kid knocking on the door in AA. However, you need to be careful not to trade away your serious talent we just accumulated.

C Stephenson
1B India
2B McLain
3B Senzel
SS De La Cruz
LF Steer
CF Friedl
RF Marte
DH Encarnacion-Strand

SP Greene
SP Lodolo
SP Abbott
SP Ashcraft (I guess?)

CL Diaz

 

[cincygrad]

You have that Phillips kid knocking on the door in AA. However, you need to be careful not to trade away your serious talent we just accumulated.

C Stephenson
1B India
2B McLain
3B Senzel
SS De La Cruz
LF Steer
CF Friedl
RF Marte
DH Encarnacion-Strand

SP Greene
SP Lodolo
SP Abbott
SP Ashcraft (I guess?)

CL Diaz

I agree that I think it would be a mistake to move really good prospects for an average pitcher for the stretch run. You'll have to move some guys, but the plan to rebuild through the farm system is clearly working and I would be hesitant to put all the chips in the basket right now. Move a couple of disposable assets for some serviceable arms, but don't mortgage the future.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

I agree that I think it would be a mistake to move really good prospects for an average pitcher for the stretch run. You'll have to move some guys, but the plan to rebuild through the farm system is clearly working and I would be hesitant to put all the chips in the basket right now. Move a couple of disposable assets for some serviceable arms, but don't mortgage the future.

I mean, the Reds trade SP Tyler Mahle to the Twins last year for Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand. We had got a 3rd player in that deal too, a pitcher named Hajjar who we already flipped as part of a package to the Guardians for Will Benson.

That's the kind of prospect package that lands a pitcher in his late 20's, who has been wildly inconsistent but had a couple controllable years on him, then I say pass on that kind of compensation.

 

[Cincyfan78]

Reds have a ton of INF talent coming up - and with this team jelling a full year before it was expected - there are going to be some trying times and guys are going to have to be OK moving around.

Good thing is - with a young team like this - guys just want to play and want to win...and when you get to do those 2 things, you find they don't end up caring too much about where they are actually playing.

Senzel in RF tonight, Steer in LF....probably going to see that a lot more with Votto back, but still gives you options against splits RHP/LHP with Fraley and Benson both LHB.

Personally, if you told me to make up a 2024 lineup right now:

Not in batting order:

1B - Steer
2B - India
SS - McLain
3B - EDLC
LF - F/A
CF - Friedl
RF - Benson
DH - Christian Encarnacion Strand

Senzel would be a super sub who can play OF/IF, I'd look to add a bat in LF most likely and also keep Fraley in the mix as well. CES has been taking balls in OF as well lately, and plays 1B as well...

They also still have Marte and Arroyo charging hard in the Minors (3B and SS respectively)...

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Reds have a ton of INF talent coming up - and with this team jelling a full year before it was expected - there are going to be some trying times and guys are going to have to be OK moving around.

Good thing is - with a young team like this - guys just want to play and want to win...and when you get to do those 2 things, you find they don't end up caring too much about where they are actually playing.

Senzel in RF tonight, Steer in LF....probably going to see that a lot more with Votto back, but still gives you options against splits RHP/LHP with Fraley and Benson both LHB.

Personally, if you told me to make up a 2024 lineup right now:

Not in batting order:

1B - Steer
2B - India
SS - McLain
3B - EDLC
LF - F/A
CF - Friedl
RF - Benson
DH - Christian Encarnacion Strand

Senzel would be a super sub who can play OF/IF, I'd look to add a bat in LF most likely and also keep Fraley in the mix as well. CES has been taking balls in OF as well lately, and plays 1B as well...

They also still have Marte and Arroyo charging hard in the Minors (3B and SS respectively)...

Arroyo is a couple years away. He is in high A but only hitting like .250ish.

Steer had been asking to play more outfield because I think he realizes he is probably going to be the odd man out in the infield and needs to diversify to get in the lineup.

The biggest concern right now is CES. He is not a great defensive player and while he is listed as a 3rd baseman, he probably projects better at 1B/DH.

Secondary concern is Noelvi Marte who is destroying AA ball right now. But once again, he is a SS. He needs to stay getting reps in the outfield. I think he projects very well for RF with his arm versus Steer, who would be better in LF.

I am really liking the way Friedl is playing in the lead off and CF. Not the greatest CF but very serviceable.

However, if you do not count on Senzel, that does open things up a bit. Senzel was a gold glove winning 3B in the minors, his natural position. Then the Reds dick with him and move him all over. He still seems most comfortable to me at 3B. However, does becoming more comfortable at your position help you at the plate? No idea, because if he can't hit well, utility is really all he is good for.

I still would like to give Senzel one last chance at his best position which we can put him at in the lineup I gave.

CF Friedl
2B McLain
1B India
SS De La Cruz
LF Steer
DH Encarnacion-Strand
C Stephenson
3B Senzel
RF Marte