Reds Thread

[Cincyfan78]

Normally, I'm not a big fan of "winning the winter" for teams (any sport). However, that usually ends up with a team spending 100MM a year on 1 guy, or maybe 2, if they are lucky. The Reds have retooled nearly half of their every day starting 8 from last year's opening day roster.

2019
2B - Gennett
SS - Iglesias
LF - Winker
RF - Puig

2020
2B - Moustakas
SS - Glavis
LF - Castellanos
RF - Shogo

If the Reds make a trade of any signifigance, likely to be Senzel - which would mean Shogo to CF and Aquino or other to RF. Aquino still has options.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Normally, I'm not a big fan of "winning the winter" for teams (any sport). However, that usually ends up with a team spending 100MM a year on 1 guy, or maybe 2, if they are lucky. The Reds have retooled nearly half of their every day starting 8 from last year's opening day roster.

2019
2B - Gennett
SS - Iglesias
LF - Winker
RF - Puig

2020
2B - Moustakas
SS - Glavis
LF - Castellanos
RF - Shogo

If the Reds make a trade of any signifigance, likely to be Senzel - which would mean Shogo to CF and Aquino or other to RF. Aquino still has options.

I am starting to warm to the idea of the Reds doing the following, or something similar:

Dodgers Get:
3B Suarez (they want to move Turner to 1st, and Lux to SS)

Reds Get:
SS Corey Seager
RP Josiah Gray
RP Casey Sadler

It answers many unanswered questions:

1) Eliminates the chance of Suarez wanting to hold out because his contract is complete crap for him as he is way out performing it.

2) It gives Senzel a position to play, 3B, where he was a gold glove winner in the minors, and less likely place to get hurt...instead of running into walls, diving across the OF, running into other OF'ers. He is just not as aware of his surroundings in the OF.

3) It gives Winker a place to play as we overloaded our OF. Worst case scenario, Winker, Castellanos and Aqunio can rotate around in LF and RF.

4) It answers still the most glaring needs on our team at this moment, SS and bullpen.

I would try to buy out Seager's final year of ARBY and try to add at least 2 years of time on to that contract, which would at least give us 4 years of him, and he is only 25, so he will have a chance for another huge payday still if he plays well.

It is hard to think about selling the face of your franchise, but with Senzel's skillset, he would make the transition of players at 3rd less traumatic, while fixing 3 other areas of concern on the team...SS, bullpen, and crowded OF.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I am starting to warm to the idea of the Reds doing the following, or something similar:

Dodgers Get:
3B Suarez (they want to move Turner to 1st, and Lux to SS)

Reds Get:
SS Corey Seager
RP Josiah Gray
RP Casey Sadler

It answers many unanswered questions:

1) Eliminates the chance of Suarez wanting to hold out because his contract is complete crap for him as he is way out performing it.

2) It gives Senzel a position to play, 3B, where he was a gold glove winner in the minors, and less likely place to get hurt...instead of running into walls, diving across the OF, running into other OF'ers. He is just not as aware of his surroundings in the OF.

3) It gives Winker a place to play as we overloaded our OF. Worst case scenario, Winker, Castellanos and Aqunio can rotate around in LF and RF.

4) It answers still the most glaring needs on our team at this moment, SS and bullpen.

I would try to buy out Seager's final year of ARBY and try to add at least 2 years of time on to that contract, which would at least give us 4 years of him, and he is only 25, so he will have a chance for another huge payday still if he plays well.

It is hard to think about selling the face of your franchise, but with Senzel's skillset, he would make the transition of players at 3rd less traumatic, while fixing 3 other areas of concern on the team...SS, bullpen, and crowded OF.

A couple of problems I have with this:

1 Suarez just signed that deal in the 2018 season. I highly doubt he is going to have issues with it 2 years into the contract. He also is having shoulder surgery - so I doubt this would work at this point anyway. Also, you slightly upgrade SS but hugely downgrade 3B and the OF really doesn't change much at all. Also, Senzel and Winker both have injury concerns. Counting on them for a full season at this point would be folly.

2 Another problem is - they tried Senzel in the IF a few springs ago - and it did not go well at all. He's an OF at this point, full time. The chances of him returning to the INF is pretty much non-existent.

3 You're creating room for the 4th OF to start in Winker, forgetting the Reds have Shogo. Assuming Senzel isn't traded (see: Lindor) then your opening day lineup is likely Castellanos/Senzel/Shogo. Aquino has options - so you don't have to trade him if you don't want. I like the idea of having Winker and Irvin off the bench because both hit their respective pitching opposites very well - and provide some pop off the bench. This could allow Aquino to try and build off his experience at the MLB level in AAA - though having his pop off the bench wouldn't be bad, either.

If I am making a trade - it's not to get rid of any current player under contract, excepting for a prospect like Senzel - where the upgrade to the position (say SS) is going to be massive, and the loss of Senzel would only be minimal (at best) in the OF.
- Building off this - I'd offer Senzel, Greene or India, and Galvis for Lindor (or some combo of Reds). It would be the only player the Reds would trade/sign that cost them any prospects and the upgrade at SS would be massive compared to losing Senzel in the OF - which would only open up a spot for someone else in the glut of OF's currently on the roster.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

A couple of problems I have with this:

1 Suarez just signed that deal in the 2018 season. I highly doubt he is going to have issues with it 2 years into the contract. He also is having shoulder surgery - so I doubt this would work at this point anyway. Also, you slightly upgrade SS but hugely downgrade 3B and the OF really doesn't change much at all. Also, Senzel and Winker both have injury concerns. Counting on them for a full season at this point would be folly.

2 Another problem is - they tried Senzel in the IF a few springs ago - and it did not go well at all. He's an OF at this point, full time. The chances of him returning to the INF is pretty much non-existent.

3 You're creating room for the 4th OF to start in Winker, forgetting the Reds have Shogo. Assuming Senzel isn't traded (see: Lindor) then your opening day lineup is likely Castellanos/Senzel/Shogo. Aquino has options - so you don't have to trade him if you don't want. I like the idea of having Winker and Irvin off the bench because both hit their respective pitching opposites very well - and provide some pop off the bench. This could allow Aquino to try and build off his experience at the MLB level in AAA - though having his pop off the bench wouldn't be bad, either.

If I am making a trade - it's not to get rid of any current player under contract, excepting for a prospect like Senzel - where the upgrade to the position (say SS) is going to be massive, and the loss of Senzel would only be minimal (at best) in the OF.
- Building off this - I'd offer Senzel, Greene or India, and Galvis for Lindor (or some combo of Reds). It would be the only player the Reds would trade/sign that cost them any prospects and the upgrade at SS would be massive compared to losing Senzel in the OF - which would only open up a spot for someone else in the glut of OF's currently on the roster.

We are not signing Lindor and his $17.5 million this year, $20+ next year, when we are already deferring 40% of Castellanos money from this year to pay for bullpen help. You can get Lindor out of your head now.

Senzel failed in the infield a couple years ago because we were trying to play him at SS. In the minors, he won a gold glove for 3rd base. He is a natural 3rd baseman.

I didn't say Suarez would start being upset with his contract all at once this offseason, but I can see him getting frustrated with it. I also believe Senzel has been injury prone in the majors mostly because of the OF. I believe that sort of goes away with a move to 3rd.

I don't think Winker is terrible at LF, I think he is serviceable. I also think you are looking too deep into Bell's logic. Winker hit .299 as a rookie when playing against LH and RH hitters during the year. Bell coming to Cincinnati is what ended that. Winker is a solid hitter and can hit lefties just fine, not like righties, but he can hit lefties just fine. If he gets hurt we still have Aqunio, Janakowski, Ervin.

Akiyama, Castellanos, Senzel, Winker, Aqunio, Janakowski, Ervin.....That is too many OF'ers. That is now our strength, and affordable SS is not. A bullpen is not. Moving Senzel gets rid of one OF'er, puts a monior league gold glover at 3B, affords Seagers contract (with a hopeful extension), puts help in the bullpen, and improves our farm system with a top 100 prospect.

 

[Cincyfan78]

We are not signing Lindor and his $17.5 million this year, $20+ next year, when we are already deferring 40% of Castellanos money from this year to pay for bullpen help. You can get Lindor out of your head now.

Senzel failed in the infield a couple years ago because we were trying to play him at SS. In the minors, he won a gold glove for 3rd base. He is a natural 3rd baseman.

I didn't say Suarez would start being upset with his contract all at once this offseason, but I can see him getting frustrated with it. I also believe Senzel has been injury prone in the majors mostly because of the OF. I believe that sort of goes away with a move to 3rd.

I don't think Winker is terrible at LF, I think he is serviceable. I also think you are looking too deep into Bell's logic. Winker hit .299 as a rookie when playing against LH and RH hitters during the year. Bell coming to Cincinnati is what ended that. Winker is a solid hitter and can hit lefties just fine, not like righties, but he can hit lefties just fine. If he gets hurt we still have Aqunio, Janakowski, Ervin.

Akiyama, Castellanos, Senzel, Winker, Aqunio, Janakowski, Ervin.....That is too many OF'ers. That is now our strength, and affordable SS is not. A bullpen is not. Moving Senzel gets rid of one OF'er, puts a monior league gold glover at 3B, affords Seagers contract (with a hopeful extension), puts help in the bullpen, and improves our farm system with a top 100 prospect.

Sorry, I'm not trading Suarez for a "maybe" at 3B, of which we have no idea how he would do, and has not even worked in the infield in 2 years now. Also, the upgrade from Suarez to the SS position in Seager is, to me, a wash, plus you lose the next 5 years of control over a comparable player. For the Reds - that's not a savvy business move. Not to mention, Senzel has yet to show he can stay healthy.

As it stands now, you have 7 OF's - yes too many. The roster may hold 5, IMO (8 every day, 12 pitchers, 5 bench). Janakowski was signed for international cap space - and his stats overall are not all that impressive. To me, he seems more like a bargain stop-gap kind of guy the Reds signed to get through spring training and until they figured out who else they were going to be able to sign. A backup plan, if you will. He could well be cut, or traded for PTBNL, or whatever. If you decide to place Aquino back in the minors for the current time being after ST concludes - there are your 5 OF's - Castellanos, Senzel, Shogo, Winker, and Irvin. That allows you for off-days and you have a LHB/RHB off the bench, both with decent pop. Also, Castellanos is expected to play some 1B to give Votto some time off, and I believe he came up as a 3B as well, though he was not very good - but in a pinch, it could be done.

Maybe 5 OF is still too many - and if anyone thinks that, that is fine. They may be right. But, injuries are going to occur, so are slumps. I'd rather, right now, hold on to those OF - unless you can make a good trade. I don't think the downgrade at 3B is enough to warrant Seagar, especially long-term. Otherwise, if we were just focused on the short-term, make the trade for Lindor - pay the 17M this year, and if things don't work - trade him in the off-season.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Sorry, I'm not trading Suarez for a "maybe" at 3B, of which we have no idea how he would do, and has not even worked in the infield in 2 years now. Also, the upgrade from Suarez to the SS position in Seager is, to me, a wash, plus you lose the next 5 years of control over a comparable player. For the Reds - that's not a savvy business move. Not to mention, Senzel has yet to show he can stay healthy.

As it stands now, you have 7 OF's - yes too many. The roster may hold 5, IMO (8 every day, 12 pitchers, 5 bench). Janakowski was signed for international cap space - and his stats overall are not all that impressive. To me, he seems more like a bargain stop-gap kind of guy the Reds signed to get through spring training and until they figured out who else they were going to be able to sign. A backup plan, if you will. He could well be cut, or traded for PTBNL, or whatever. If you decide to place Aquino back in the minors for the current time being after ST concludes - there are your 5 OF's - Castellanos, Senzel, Shogo, Winker, and Irvin. That allows you for off-days and you have a LHB/RHB off the bench, both with decent pop. Also, Castellanos is expected to play some 1B to give Votto some time off, and I believe he came up as a 3B as well, though he was not very good - but in a pinch, it could be done.

Maybe 5 OF is still too many - and if anyone thinks that, that is fine. They may be right. But, injuries are going to occur, so are slumps. I'd rather, right now, hold on to those OF - unless you can make a good trade. I don't think the downgrade at 3B is enough to warrant Seagar, especially long-term. Otherwise, if we were just focused on the short-term, make the trade for Lindor - pay the 17M this year, and if things don't work - trade him in the off-season.

I see what you are saying, and Suarez is probably my favorite player on the team so if they do not trade him, I am perfectly good with that too. However, I belong to another Reds message board and they said if we were to trade Suarez, he would warrant those three plus a upper tier prospect or two.

If that is the case, I am a little more for it, because you can replenish our farm system a little bit more and get the major league pieces you need. There is no if's on whether Senzel can play 3rd, he is not an OF, never was, and the Reds were only trying to get value out of him since they kept blocking him. He is a gold glove caliber infielder, especially at 3B. SS..never. 2B..ehh..maybe. 1st, he could be a gold glover there as well. He is a corner infielder, plain and simple.

Moving Senzel to the OF is like deciding to make AJ Green a DB. It is just stupid.

The Reds are all in this year, amybe next by the moves.

If you trade for Lindor you are not only taking on 17.5 million dollars now, which it appears we are about tapped out if we are asking Castellanos to defer 40% of his salary this year so we can pay 2 to 3 million dollar relievers. So now not only can we not afford Lindor, based off what Clevland is asking for, you are losing Senzel, Lodolo, India, Galvis, and another lower level prospect, for 2 years of Lindor with an escalating salary we can no longer afford.

Lindor is not coming here...too much money, too little years, too many prospects. Teams like the Reds can't make that kind of trade. We see how that worked out last offseason with Wood, Puig, Farmer, Kemp...we got rid of Bailey, but also lost Josiah Gray, Jeter Downs (both of which are in the top 100 in prospects (40-70 range).

 

[Cincyfan78]

I see what you are saying, and Suarez is probably my favorite player on the team so if they do not trade him, I am perfectly good with that too. However, I belong to another Reds message board and they said if we were to trade Suarez, he would warrant those three plus a upper tier prospect or two.

If that is the case, I am a little more for it, because you can replenish our farm system a little bit more and get the major league pieces you need. There is no if's on whether Senzel can play 3rd, he is not an OF, never was, and the Reds were only trying to get value out of him since they kept blocking him. He is a gold glove caliber infielder, especially at 3B. SS..never. 2B..ehh..maybe. 1st, he could be a gold glover there as well. He is a corner infielder, plain and simple.

Moving Senzel to the OF is like deciding to make AJ Green a DB. It is just stupid.

The Reds are all in this year, amybe next by the moves.

If you trade for Lindor you are not only taking on 17.5 million dollars now, which it appears we are about tapped out if we are asking Castellanos to defer 40% of his salary this year so we can pay 2 to 3 million dollar relievers. So now not only can we not afford Lindor, based off what Clevland is asking for, you are losing Senzel, Lodolo, India, Galvis, and another lower level prospect, for 2 years of Lindor with an escalating salary we can no longer afford.

Lindor is not coming here...too much money, too little years, too many prospects. Teams like the Reds can't make that kind of trade. We see how that worked out last offseason with Wood, Puig, Farmer, Kemp...we got rid of Bailey, but also lost Josiah Gray, Jeter Downs (both of which are in the top 100 in prospects (40-70 range).

Moot point now - Suarez is now potentially starting the year on the IL.

My overall point wasn't to simply just trade for Lindor - but to say, if you are going to make a trade that pushes this team all-in (which is essentially what they have been doing since the trade deadline last year - looking at 2020/2021 as all in years) then you bite the bullet and you make that trade for Lindor - worry about the financial side of it later. Also, the Reds haven't touched a single prospect this off-season - so there are some guys that you could include - again, if you are going "all in" on 2020/2021. Again, probably a moot point with Suarez's injury.

Overall, I think the team, as constructed, is just fine the way it is. Now, of course, with Suarez being down - this leads to Moustakas likely remaining at 3B for the time being, unless the Reds really want him to simply focus at 2B full-time, which would be 100% understandable. What do you do at 3B? Maybe, without even making the trade, you get your wish to see Senzel at 3B. That immediately opens up the OF without even making a trade, or at least buys you a lot of time before "needing" to make a trade. Of course, if the Reds don't take a look at Senzel at 3B, there would be your answer to if the Reds entertained the idea of trading Suarez that Senzel would be the one moving to 3B. At this point, Reds will have to find someone else, or hope they have a guy in the minors (India?) that can help contribute early on.

Not a huge fan of the Strop signing, though - 5ERA for a reliever wouldn't exactly blow me away - but he has a good K/BB rate and has those stretches where he is really good. Of course, that comes with the caveat of those stretches that are really bad.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Moot point now - Suarez is now potentially starting the year on the IL.

My overall point wasn't to simply just trade for Lindor - but to say, if you are going to make a trade that pushes this team all-in (which is essentially what they have been doing since the trade deadline last year - looking at 2020/2021 as all in years) then you bite the bullet and you make that trade for Lindor - worry about the financial side of it later. Also, the Reds haven't touched a single prospect this off-season - so there are some guys that you could include - again, if you are going "all in" on 2020/2021. Again, probably a moot point with Suarez's injury.

Overall, I think the team, as constructed, is just fine the way it is. Now, of course, with Suarez being down - this leads to Moustakas likely remaining at 3B for the time being, unless the Reds really want him to simply focus at 2B full-time, which would be 100% understandable. What do you do at 3B? Maybe, without even making the trade, you get your wish to see Senzel at 3B. That immediately opens up the OF without even making a trade, or at least buys you a lot of time before "needing" to make a trade. Of course, if the Reds don't take a look at Senzel at 3B, there would be your answer to if the Reds entertained the idea of trading Suarez that Senzel would be the one moving to 3B. At this point, Reds will have to find someone else, or hope they have a guy in the minors (India?) that can help contribute early on.

Not a huge fan of the Strop signing, though - 5ERA for a reliever wouldn't exactly blow me away - but he has a good K/BB rate and has those stretches where he is really good. Of course, that comes with the caveat of those stretches that are really bad.

I agree with all the top. Moot, and probably wasn't realistic anyways, but I honestly think they are done with adding money to the payroll, unless they find a way of taking on a SS without adding more money into it. Seager was the only way I could see them doing that, with Suarez, without destroying the future of the team either.

Not a big deal, was just a floated around idea to see what others would think of that.

As far as Strop, I am a big fan of the deal. Incentive laden, and his only off year was last year since being with the Cubs. He was battling injuries last year and never really got right. If he can get his crap right, even if he reaches ALL of his incentives, he is only getting like 3 and half million. For a guy capable of being a closer, that is a good buy right now on the market to go with our other guys.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I agree with all the top. Moot, and probably wasn't realistic anyways, but I honestly think they are done with adding money to the payroll, unless they find a way of taking on a SS without adding more money into it. Seager was the only way I could see them doing that, with Suarez, without destroying the future of the team either.

Not a big deal, was just a floated around idea to see what others would think of that.

As far as Strop, I am a big fan of the deal. Incentive laden, and his only off year was last year since being with the Cubs. He was battling injuries last year and never really got right. If he can get his crap right, even if he reaches ALL of his incentives, he is only getting like 3 and half million. For a guy capable of being a closer, that is a good buy right now on the market to go with our other guys.

Yep. Agreed. Any pitching I'll take, as the pitching coach has done wonders in his career - so it's worth the shot, and as you said - incentive laden.

Also, forgot that Senzel also had shoulder surgery this past off-season...

Yes, I think the Reds are done adding any major parts that would increase payroll significantly - agreed. Though, I will just say this - if you did a trade for Lindor (or whomever) it would have to include Galvis - and that would shave 5MM off whatever the player you are trading for - so, in effect, you would be getting Lindor for 12MM this year, and prospects. When you look at it that way....Hmmmmm

At least they are spending money - they've been talking about it since they re-boot. The biggest issue is that ownership just waited too long to pull the plug and start the reboot. Could have shaved at least a year, or two, off this whole process.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Yep. Agreed. Any pitching I'll take, as the pitching coach has done wonders in his career - so it's worth the shot, and as you said - incentive laden.

Also, forgot that Senzel also had shoulder surgery this past off-season...

Yes, I think the Reds are done adding any major parts that would increase payroll significantly - agreed. Though, I will just say this - if you did a trade for Lindor (or whomever) it would have to include Galvis - and that would shave 5MM off whatever the player you are trading for - so, in effect, you would be getting Lindor for 12MM this year, and prospects. When you look at it that way....Hmmmmm

At least they are spending money - they've been talking about it since they re-boot. The biggest issue is that ownership just waited too long to pull the plug and start the reboot. Could have shaved at least a year, or two, off this whole process.

All the pieces fell into place finally.

Castillo became an ace.
Bauer was finally available for a couple years without raping the farm system.
Gray had his down year which allowed us to sign him to a team friendly deal.
DeSclafani is healthy.

Players were available that had succeeded against us, and were affordable. Moustakas, Castellanos.

Akiyama could be a difference maker. A guy that can play good defense in CF, and leadoff for us with an OBP and a little speed. This was the year to try to push that envelop.

I like all the signings, I just wish they would hurry up and just say the DH is going to be used in the NL. It is already said to be coming to NL as early as 2021. Wish they would just do it this year. Especially since Bauer is HORRIBLE at hitting.

 

[Cincyfan78]

All the pieces fell into place finally.

Castillo became an ace.
Bauer was finally available for a couple years without raping the farm system.
Gray had his down year which allowed us to sign him to a team friendly deal.
DeSclafani is healthy.

Players were available that had succeeded against us, and were affordable. Moustakas, Castellanos.

Akiyama could be a difference maker. A guy that can play good defense in CF, and leadoff for us with an OBP and a little speed. This was the year to try to push that envelop.

I like all the signings, I just wish they would hurry up and just say the DH is going to be used in the NL. It is already said to be coming to NL as early as 2021. Wish they would just do it this year. Especially since Bauer is HORRIBLE at hitting.

I hate the DH. I wish they got rid of it all together - but with that being said, I realize it is not going away, and it will be in the NL sooner than later. I agree - with it already being a foregone conclusion - let's just get it implemented this year...it would solve the OF glut...LOL

 

[MaximumSam]

Playoffs Redlegs, Playoffs!

 

[cincygrad]

 

[Cincyfan78]

Bauer/Castillo/Gray

Going to face off against the #2 offense in the Majors in ATL. The usual trope is that great pitching beats good hitting in playoff series - so let's hope that continues to be true.

ATL's pitching is middling - and that is a good thing. If the Reds can get to game #1 starter, the Braves really don't have much else behind them in terms of starting pitching. One guy had a nice run, but small sample size - the other guys with more games started sport ERA's north of 4 and 5 and WHIPS north of 1.4/1.5.

 

[cincygrad]

Bauer/Castillo/Gray

Going to face off against the #2 offense in the Majors in ATL. The usual trope is that great pitching beats good hitting in playoff series - so let's hope that continues to be true.

ATL's pitching is middling - and that is a good thing. If the Reds can get to game #1 starter, the Braves really don't have much else behind them in terms of starting pitching. One guy had a nice run, but small sample size - the other guys with more games started sport ERA's north of 4 and 5 and WHIPS north of 1.4/1.5.

LOL! The Braves could have kept pitching all day..... We weren't ever going to get out of our own way with guys on bases.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

He'll sign the contract, and then along about August he'll have Tommy John surgery. I can see it coming. Of course they don't extend him and he'll win 110 games for the Yanks or Red Sox over the next six years. It's a no win situation for small market teams in baseball.

Wow. Nailed it lol

Not the wins part

 

[Cincyfan78]

LOL! The Braves could have kept pitching all day..... We weren't ever going to get out of our own way with guys on bases.

Never underestimate a Cincinnati team finding new way to appear inept on the national stage.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Most runs scored through 5 games in modern era? 46? Wowsers. However, this is mostly thanks to the Pirates and their lucky if they win 45 game pitching staff. However, it was also the Cardinals top 3 pitchers where the Reds scored 27 in those 3 games. They are just hot right now. Because as hot as they are, they have a tendency to run just as cold and barely scrap together hits. Plus, their starting staff historically has not been great. Castillo and Gray are your only decent starters since they opted not to make Antone a starter, who I think may be the best starting pitcher we have. I think it will be a rough season, but fun seeing them score some runs.

Naquin 2 HR's and 7 RBI's??
India a 5 game hitting streak to start his MLB career with 4 RBI's last night?

 

[DanBengalfan]

quit yer bitchin' and learn yer pitchin'

 

[DanBengalfan]

looking to go to at least 1 reds game this year, otherwise I'm going to fall asleep on them.