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Reds Thread

cincygrad

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Not sure who decided to un-sticky are Reds thread, but with baseball season on the way we'll need a new one.
 

cincygrad

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Reds closing in on deal with Homer Bailey.

Interesting approach -- Apparently we are trying to lock up every 'unlikeable' player on our roster. First Bruce, then Votto and now Homer.

Who Dey!
 

Cincyfan78

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Disagree with Bruce. He's likable.

Votto has a large following, as well. Also, he's been spending a lot of time on the local air-waves this off-season taking calls from fans, and answering their questions about his approach to hitting, why he bristles at the mention of RBI, and how he figures his worth compared to the results. It's been really interesting to listen to, and after hearing him, it's very hard to disagree with what he is saying.

Homer is Homer. As long as he continues to pitch well, I don't really care if fans like him or not. He helps this team win games.
 

bengaldoug

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Reds closing in on deal with Homer Bailey.

Interesting approach -- Apparently we are trying to lock up every 'unlikeable' player on our roster. First Bruce, then Votto and now Homer.

Who Dey!

Are they actually going to extend Bailey? Where the fuck is that money coming from?
 

cincygrad

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Are they actually going to extend Bailey? Where the fuck is that money coming from?

Hard to know..... But if they want to remain relevant, they need to keep their pitching. Doubtful that they'll keep Latos past his current deal so Homer is probably going to be the ace going forward.
 

Cincyfan78

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Are they actually going to extend Bailey? Where the fuck is that money coming from?

The thought process is, they can sign him and save money this year, pay him face value next year, and then in2016, they will have a new TV deal in place to pay for significant payroll increases based on the other FSN deals that have been secured by other teams.

The Reds consistently draw high ratings, and those ratings have only increased in the past 3-4 years. They are going to have a pretty nice deal in place going into the 2016, by all accounts.

Probably enough to not only ensure that Votto's contract doesn't criple them, but enough so that they can also extend Latos or Cueto or Leake (My money is on Latos).

Also, you'll have some salaries falling off as well down the road. Ludwick's gone, and BP will be approaching the last year of his deal, assuming he isn't traded at some point before then.

Bruce is alreayd signed to a long term deal, and they have actually talked about extending that deal as well.
 

bengaldoug

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So two decent years and suddenly a 27 year old pitcher is worth $100 million over 6 years?

I still believe pitchers should never get guaranteed contracts for more than three years. Seems like any longer is a ridiculous risk considering how many pitchers fall to serious arm problems.

And I also realize he can go on the free agent market and get six years guaranteed. That doesn't mean it's the smart thing to do for teams who have more dollars than sense.
 
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Cincyfan78

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So two decent years and suddenly a 27 year old pitcher is worth $100 million over 6 years?

I still believe pitchers should never get guaranteed contracts for more than three years. Seems like any longer is a ridiculous risk considering how many pitchers fall to serious arm problems.

Don't completely disagree, but it will never happen. Either you play the game, or you get left behind.

Homer has improved his ERA, BAA, WHIP, etc...all over the past 3 years, each year being better than the last.

Consider he's still got another 800+ innings on his arm before use becomes a concern, and that is 4 years right there.

By the end of his contract (assuming that 6 years 100mm is about right) he'll be making about market value, or below market value. The average annual of 16M a year is going to end up looking like a steal to the Reds, but I'm sure some of that will be back loaded to save money up front until the new TV deal kicks in by 2016.
 

bengaldoug

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He'll sign the contract, and then along about August he'll have Tommy John surgery. I can see it coming. Of course they don't extend him and he'll win 110 games for the Yanks or Red Sox over the next six years. It's a no win situation for small market teams in baseball.
 

cincygrad

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Reds over/under 87.5.

Go.
 

cincygrad

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I'm going under.

I think we'll have at least one major injury on the pitching staff and I think we'll lose a bunch of 1 run games.

Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips will hit a lot of home runs, but they'll be our only real offense.

Joey will continue to be Joey -- A rich man's Sean Casey.
 

kramer1

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I'm going under.

I think we'll have at least one major injury on the pitching staff and I think we'll lose a bunch of 1 run games.

Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips will hit a lot of home runs, but they'll be our only real offense.

Joey will continue to be Joey -- A rich man's Sean Casey.

Cueto will miss time. That's a given. Hamilton will stink. Mesoraco will stink.

2-6 in the lineup should be solid, though. I don't think 88 wins is enough to make the playoffs anyways. So, 88 might as well be 80.
 

bengaldoug

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I'm going under.

I think we'll have at least one major injury on the pitching staff and I think we'll lose a bunch of 1 run games.

Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips will hit a lot of home runs, but they'll be our only real offense.

Joey will continue to be Joey -- A rich man's Sean Casey.

Don't know why, but I think Votto has a big year. 30+ homers and 100+ RBI to go along with his usual .400+ OBP. Doesn't matter though. The loss of Choo offensively will be too much to overcome. I'm also going under. Something around 85 wins. At least they won't have to worry about losing another playoff series.
 

Cincyfan78

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Hamilton is pretty much Stubbs, and the Reds won 90+ games with him at leadoff, with the same team, pretty much.

So, I'm going over.
 

kramer1

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Hamilton is pretty much Stubbs, and the Reds won 90+ games with him at leadoff, with the same team, pretty much.

So, I'm going over.

No Rolen. No Hanigan. All World Joey. Ludwick was ridiculous. Frazier was ridiculous.

2 very different teams IMO.
 

Cincyfan78

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No Rolen. No Hanigan. All World Joey. Ludwick was ridiculous. Frazier was ridiculous.

2 very different teams IMO.

Rolen was hurt.

Frazier did hit better that year than last year, but the difference isn't huge.

Hanigan had his best year hitting. I conceed that Meso would have to hit pretty well to match that.

Ludwick was only good for 1 month. That's it. Not a stretch to say it could happen again.

Joey will bounce back. He had no power in his knee last year, and even said so. He had zero training during the off-season because of rehab on his knee.

They are not as far off as you might think.

The key will always be health, though. Teams that stay healthy have the best chances.
 

kramer1

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Teams that have the deepest pockets have the best chances, actually.
 

Cincyfan78

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Teams that have the deepest pockets have the best chances, actually.

That is true, as well, but not always the case.

What did the Yankees do last year?

I also would not be surprised if they struggled again this year.

The Rays continually compete, and have close to no payroll compared to any other team in that division.

The Angels shelled out multi 100MM contracts last year, and where did they end up?

Having money and spending money wisely are two different things.
 

kramer1

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That is true, as well, but not always the case.

What did the Yankees do last year?

I also would not be surprised if they struggled again this year.

The Rays continually compete, and have close to no payroll compared to any other team in that division.

The Angels shelled out multi 100MM contracts last year, and where did they end up?

Having money and spending money wisely are two different things.

Um, no. Last 10 WS winners...

Boston, SanFran, STL, SanFran, NYY, Philly, Boston, STL, Chicago, Boston
 
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