Reds Thread

[Cincyfan78]

11 in a row - longest streak since 1957 when they won 12 in a row...

Currently 14-6 in June. Best record in June is 21-7 in 1975...

 

[Cincyfan78]

Elly stole 2nd, 3rd, and Home on 2 pitches...incredible....the guy is, to borrow a buddy of mine's phrase, a unicorn born in a supernova....

You can't even create him in a video game because games max out at 99 ratings, and Elly is at least 110....

 

[Cincyfan78]

 

[DanBengalfan]

Elly stole 2nd, 3rd, and Home on 2 pitches...incredible....the guy is, to borrow a buddy of mine's phrase, a unicorn born in a supernova....

You can't even create him in a video game because games max out at 99 ratings, and Elly is at least 110....

Exciting times, we better enjoy them while they last.

he'll be wearing dodger blue or yankee black in no time.

 

[Cincyfan78]

Exciting times, we better enjoy them while they last.

he'll be wearing dodger blue or yankee black in no time.

Thankfully, he'll have quite a few years in a Reds uniform. He won't be arbitration eligible for another year, or 2...then you have 3 more years on top of that. Same with McLain, and Steer. Green just signed a long-term contract, and you still have Ashcraft, Lodolo,, and Abbott under the same parameters.

The Reds have stuck lightening in so much that they have 3-4-5 position players and 3-4 pitchers all who have top level ability currently performing well - and are team controlled for 3-4 (or more) years.

However, there's no doubt that if EDLC lives up to billing, he's going to command a top 3 salary, to which the Reds are not likely to match...

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Thankfully, he'll have quite a few years in a Reds uniform. He won't be arbitration eligible for another year, or 2...then you have 3 more years on top of that. Same with McLain, and Steer. Green just signed a long-term contract, and you still have Ashcraft, Lodolo,, and Abbott under the same parameters.

The Reds have stuck lightening in so much that they have 3-4-5 position players and 3-4 pitchers all who have top level ability currently performing well - and are team controlled for 3-4 (or more) years.

However, there's no doubt that if EDLC lives up to billing, he's going to command a top 3 salary, to which the Reds are not likely to match...

EDLC is a rookie, got called up late, that might give the Reds and extra year of control, so that would be 7 years total from begin to end.

 

[DanBengalfan]

cool, the whole arbitration thing is a blur to me at the moment.

 

[jbuck]

Strand looks like Pujols in the batters box

 

[Cincyfan78]

Strand looks like Pujols in the batters box

Said that last year to a buddy of mine, who agreed as well.

Looks like a young** Pujols



** Was Pujols ever really young? We'll never know, I guess....LOL

 

[DanBengalfan]

who they gonna trade now?

 

[Cincyfan78]

who they gonna trade now?

Likely no one...I mean, honestly their best candidate to trade is probably Candelario. I guess you could say India, but with McLain not expected back until at least August...then again, India likely brings the most in a return. Is there a spot for him on this team going forward once McLain returns? I think so...but the Reds could also use some re-stocking in the minors after everyone got called up over the past 2 years...one of the reasons why the injuries hit hard this year - that minor league pipeline was sucked pretty dry. Their best prospect (Arroyo) ended up with the same/similar injury as McLain and is out the year as well.

Honestly - I think the Reds should hold onto their cards and stand pat. I know that's not going to be a popular take with certain fans, but the reality is - this team is just too wrecked by injuries to really be able to just add 1 guy here or there and make a real push.

I think you have to look to the off-season. Make a move to shore up the OF with a true everyday MLB bat (not Stu, not Benson, not Fraley who are all really good bench guys and subs, but shouldn't be starting 4-5-6 days a week). You get CES back and that allows Steer to return to LF, you get Friedl back and he stays healthy, you add that 1 bat in RF and you have a pretty solid OF with a guy like Hinds, Benson, Fraley, etc...as the bench guys.

You get Marte back for a full year, you have McLain return for a full year, CES and of course Elly. The starting rotation will need to replace Montas, but that's fine. The rest of the guys have pitched very well...Green, Lodolo, Abbott and Spiers. You could do much worse than having Ashcraft be your 5th starter. The 'pen has been surprising good overall.

If they are going to try and go all in on this years team - I think you have to find a way to land an impact bat in the OF - but at what cost? If you lose India or Candelario - that kind of takes a step back...Ashcraft was just demoted and pitching is at a premium...do you dangle him and see who over pays?

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Likely no one...I mean, honestly their best candidate to trade is probably Candelario. I guess you could say India, but with McLain not expected back until at least August...then again, India likely brings the most in a return. Is there a spot for him on this team going forward once McLain returns? I think so...but the Reds could also use some re-stocking in the minors after everyone got called up over the past 2 years...one of the reasons why the injuries hit hard this year - that minor league pipeline was sucked pretty dry. Their best prospect (Arroyo) ended up with the same/similar injury as McLain and is out the year as well.

Honestly - I think the Reds should hold onto their cards and stand pat. I know that's not going to be a popular take with certain fans, but the reality is - this team is just too wrecked by injuries to really be able to just add 1 guy here or there and make a real push.

I think you have to look to the off-season. Make a move to shore up the OF with a true everyday MLB bat (not Stu, not Benson, not Fraley who are all really good bench guys and subs, but shouldn't be starting 4-5-6 days a week). You get CES back and that allows Steer to return to LF, you get Friedl back and he stays healthy, you add that 1 bat in RF and you have a pretty solid OF with a guy like Hinds, Benson, Fraley, etc...as the bench guys.

You get Marte back for a full year, you have McLain return for a full year, CES and of course Elly. The starting rotation will need to replace Montas, but that's fine. The rest of the guys have pitched very well...Green, Lodolo, Abbott and Spiers. You could do much worse than having Ashcraft be your 5th starter. The 'pen has been surprising good overall.

If they are going to try and go all in on this years team - I think you have to find a way to land an impact bat in the OF - but at what cost? If you lose India or Candelario - that kind of takes a step back...Ashcraft was just demoted and pitching is at a premium...do you dangle him and see who over pays?

There is a very real chance the Reds could wind up with Charlie Condon in the draft and he may be an outfield candidate by the end of next year or beginning of 2026. I would hope they don't waste a bunch of money they could be saving to resign some of these guys.

I know Cruz is kind of an enigmatic player, one day he is a superstar, the next he is striking out 4 times. However, they need to be giving him a long term team friendly contract through his rookie contract like they did with Hunter Green. Cruz could cost a fortune to resign, so take his current 6 years, turn it into 8, buy out his rookie years, gives him more money now, while saving Reds money in those last few years.

 

[Cincyfan78]

There is a very real chance the Reds could wind up with Charlie Condon in the draft and he may be an outfield candidate by the end of next year or beginning of 2026. I would hope they don't waste a bunch of money they could be saving to resign some of these guys.

I know Cruz is kind of an enigmatic player, one day he is a superstar, the next he is striking out 4 times. However, they need to be giving him a long term team friendly contract through his rookie contract like they did with Hunter Green. Cruz could cost a fortune to resign, so take his current 6 years, turn it into 8, buy out his rookie years, gives him more money now, while saving Reds money in those last few years.

I don't disagree on Cruz.

As for Condon - you have 3 OF spots...and likely you are going to see someone traded at some point, plus just lose other guys eventually to F/A or whatever...so I think you still need to find an OF bat. It would, at worst, allow you to shed someone like Benson (leads MLB in swing/miss rate) or Stu...your backups can be Fraley from the left side and Hinds or another young guy. You still have Martini as well...but there in lies the issue right now - as you look for the rest of '24 and into most of '25 - they have too many AAAA players starting every day in the OF. Condon may end up being a freak stud but can you rely on that being your answer, and even then can you wait until the end of '25 or into '26?

The IF and rotation are pretty much set and are under team control for another 4+ years...if ever there was a time to invest some money - you shore up that rotation at some spot, you shore up the 'pen a bit more, and you find no less than 1 OF bat to compliment the rest of the players. That gets you, if not through '24, at least setting you up for '25 to be a real contender and into '26 when you can have some guys ready to help like Condon maybe, or Arroyo - and that means allowing for trades of certain guys (maybe India) to help re-stock those minor league positions...

 

[CrashDavisSports]

I don't disagree on Cruz.

As for Condon - you have 3 OF spots...and likely you are going to see someone traded at some point, plus just lose other guys eventually to F/A or whatever...so I think you still need to find an OF bat. It would, at worst, allow you to shed someone like Benson (leads MLB in swing/miss rate) or Stu...your backups can be Fraley from the left side and Hinds or another young guy. You still have Martini as well...but there in lies the issue right now - as you look for the rest of '24 and into most of '25 - they have too many AAAA players starting every day in the OF. Condon may end up being a freak stud but can you rely on that being your answer, and even then can you wait until the end of '25 or into '26?

The IF and rotation are pretty much set and are under team control for another 4+ years...if ever there was a time to invest some money - you shore up that rotation at some spot, you shore up the 'pen a bit more, and you find no less than 1 OF bat to compliment the rest of the players. That gets you, if not through '24, at least setting you up for '25 to be a real contender and into '26 when you can have some guys ready to help like Condon maybe, or Arroyo - and that means allowing for trades of certain guys (maybe India) to help re-stock those minor league positions...

I don't disagree, but at what price again, as you stated before? Way I see it, Steer, Friedl, Condon are your potential OF of the future only because Steer is limited.

India, Candelario seem like the best bets.

With our starting pitching, I am hesitant to trade Ashcraft as he is a decent pitcher and you have tons of inconsistency in your starting rotation, and you have injury concerns. I would be more apt to trade Montas

Also, I know almost everyone is against it, as I am one of the few that isn't, I think Cruz could be a better asset in CF with his speed, arm with Arroyo in our farm system. Arroyo is one of the better SS prospects in all of minor league ball. Cruz could finally be our Eric Davis replacement after all these year.

I know SS is a better value, but all we are doing is limiting our roster and having to trade quality prospects away to accommodate their playing careers. Then we have to find guys to play in other positions for us.

To me, this is our ideal lineup starting in 2026, but that assumes we get through 2025 without losing guys.

C Stephenson
1B Encarnacion-Strand
2B McLain
3B Marte
SS Arroyo
LF Friedl
CF Cruz
RF Condon
DH Steer

SP Nick Lodolo
SP Hunter Green
SP Andrew Abbott
SP Rhett Lowder
SP Chase Petty

So to me, that makes the rest of the players tradable. India, Candalario and Montas. Now, Ashcraft is not listed, but I think he is am important piece in 2025.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I don't disagree, but at what price again, as you stated before? Way I see it, Steer, Friedl, Condon are your potential OF of the future only because Steer is limited.

India, Candelario seem like the best bets.

With our starting pitching, I am hesitant to trade Ashcraft as he is a decent pitcher and you have tons of inconsistency in your starting rotation, and you have injury concerns. I would be more apt to trade Montas

Also, I know almost everyone is against it, as I am one of the few that isn't, I think Cruz could be a better asset in CF with his speed, arm with Arroyo in our farm system. Arroyo is one of the better SS prospects in all of minor league ball. Cruz could finally be our Eric Davis replacement after all these year.

I know SS is a better value, but all we are doing is limiting our roster and having to trade quality prospects away to accommodate their playing careers. Then we have to find guys to play in other positions for us.

To me, this is our ideal lineup starting in 2026, but that assumes we get through 2025 without losing guys.

C Stephenson
1B Encarnacion-Strand
2B McLain
3B Marte
SS Arroyo
LF Friedl
CF Cruz
RF Condon
DH Steer

SP Nick Lodolo
SP Hunter Green
SP Andrew Abbott
SP Rhett Lowder
SP Chase Petty

So to me, that makes the rest of the players tradable. India, Candalario and Montas. Now, Ashcraft is not listed, but I think he is am important piece in 2025.

I think you make some good points.

Reds still have some pitching in the minors, I think....and drafted that kid last year out of Wake...so, while I do agree with your assessment, pitching returns a premium...I could let go of Ashcraft for the right deal.

I was with you about Elly to CF more last year...this year he leads the team in defensive OAA (outs above average) - and his overall defense has been pretty solid. To me, Arroyo likely ends up at 2B or 3B...if the former, I see McLain moving to 3B. What does that mean for Marte? No clue. But so far, he's got to show he can hit now that he's off the roids...lol. CES is in a similar boat whenever he returns as he'll need to show that his early season swoons were more wrist related than issues. Either way - if one of those guys is struggling the Reds have potential moves within the roster to make - meaning either Marte, CES, or both could be looking at being packaged to a club that will still be buying high on their youth and upside.

I think this is mainly why I think the Reds hold their cards...they likely look to add an OF bat, but aren't likely to land an impact guy because they are not likely to trade these pieces away yet until they know for certain what they are getting from them. That likely means looking to add a F/A in the OF over the off-season, and rolling into '25 with most of these same guys in place.

Montas could be a good flip - but not sure. He's been inconsistent and is only on a 1 year deal - so could be attractive for a team in the hunt, but the Reds despite their struggles are only 4 games out of the WC....if anyone is likely to be traded, I think it's going to be a guy with a bit more team control and youth to try and exact a return that will help the Reds this year, and likely through at least '25.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

I think you make some good points.

Reds still have some pitching in the minors, I think....and drafted that kid last year out of Wake...so, while I do agree with your assessment, pitching returns a premium...I could let go of Ashcraft for the right deal.

I was with you about Elly to CF more last year...this year he leads the team in defensive OAA (outs above average) - and his overall defense has been pretty solid. To me, Arroyo likely ends up at 2B or 3B...if the former, I see McLain moving to 3B. What does that mean for Marte? No clue. But so far, he's got to show he can hit now that he's off the roids...lol. CES is in a similar boat whenever he returns as he'll need to show that his early season swoons were more wrist related than issues. Either way - if one of those guys is struggling the Reds have potential moves within the roster to make - meaning either Marte, CES, or both could be looking at being packaged to a club that will still be buying high on their youth and upside.

I think this is mainly why I think the Reds hold their cards...they likely look to add an OF bat, but aren't likely to land an impact guy because they are not likely to trade these pieces away yet until they know for certain what they are getting from them. That likely means looking to add a F/A in the OF over the off-season, and rolling into '25 with most of these same guys in place.

Montas could be a good flip - but not sure. He's been inconsistent and is only on a 1 year deal - so could be attractive for a team in the hunt, but the Reds despite their struggles are only 4 games out of the WC....if anyone is likely to be traded, I think it's going to be a guy with a bit more team control and youth to try and exact a return that will help the Reds this year, and likely through at least '25.

All good points. There is one guy I could see us trading also for some value next year, CES. Tons of upside and pretty young with team control. Condon can play 1B also. I think we are too over crowded in the INF. We need to spread that talent out and Cruz to CF to me does that. However, I know that will not happen as I see he has improved in the field this year over last, and they do see him as a SS.

So OF is a need, even if Condon is drafted. Lots of things to look at. Be interesting to see what management does with all these players.

 

[Cincyfan78]

All good points. There is one guy I could see us trading also for some value next year, CES. Tons of upside and pretty young with team control. Condon can play 1B also. I think we are too over crowded in the INF. We need to spread that talent out and Cruz to CF to me does that. However, I know that will not happen as I see he has improved in the field this year over last, and they do see him as a SS.

So OF is a need, even if Condon is drafted. Lots of things to look at. Be interesting to see what management does with all these players.

Yes - eventually guys will be on the move. The big question is "who" and "when". With so much team control, I don't really see them making many moves, yet. My guess is once guys get towards the end of those controllable years (with about 1 1/2 to 2 years) we'll start to see some real movement.

Unless a team offers up some kind of major package deal that lands the Reds a bona-fide OF bat for controllable years as well.

I agree there is some glut in the INF, but it has worked out this year in the Reds favor with the injuries. It's also why I could see India eventually moved - he would bring the most return. He's already signed for '25 (avoided arb by agreeing to $5M during this round). He'll still have 1 more year of Arb eligible in '26. He's having a nice turn around year at the plate, and is at least serviceable so far in the field.

If that happens, you bring back McLain at 2B, Candy rotates between 3B and DH and Steer rotates between LF/1B and you have Friedl in CF and the F/A in the OF...Espinal remains your backup IF at 2B and SS (with Steer also able to play 2B).

As you said, going to be really interesting to see what transpires - I think we start to see some movement in the off-season, IMO...but we'll see.

 

[cincygrad]

I think this year is a wash.... They are underperforming in terms on wins/losses when you look at their run differential, but in general the team is just too inconsistent with too many injuries. Last year folks were obsessed with the abundance of emerging depth on the team but this year that depth couldn't help much with a few key injuries. So, to me, that just means there is still more potential rather than production. Generally speaking, you make moves at this time of year to add pitchers for the stretch run. I just don't think that moves the needle much with this group.

My optimism from last year is wearing off.... They definitely have tried building from within and I can say they are mostly building it right. But, every season is a disappointment from this franchise - And that has been true for most of my 5 decades as a fan. As Bengal fans we used to joke about every season being another case of Charlie Brown kicking a field goal, only for Lucy to pull the ball away.... But hell, at least the Bengals have been relevant in the 2000s. We're 24 years into this century and the Reds have had one team that could be somewhat considered a contender. And most of their teams have been hot garbage.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I think this year is a wash.... They are underperforming in terms on wins/losses when you look at their run differential, but in general the team is just too inconsistent with too many injuries. Last year folks were obsessed with the abundance of emerging depth on the team but this year that depth couldn't help much with a few key injuries. So, to me, that just means there is still more potential rather than production. Generally speaking, you make moves at this time of year to add pitchers for the stretch run. I just don't think that moves the needle much with this group.

My optimism from last year is wearing off.... They definitely have tried building from within and I can say they are mostly building it right. But, every season is a disappointment from this franchise - And that has been true for most of my 5 decades as a fan. As Bengal fans we used to joke about every season being another case of Charlie Brown kicking a field goal, only for Lucy to pull the ball away.... But hell, at least the Bengals have been relevant in the 2000s. We're 24 years into this century and the Reds have had one team that could be somewhat considered a contender. And most of their teams have been hot garbage.

I don't disagree with your points, but it's also hard not to look at this roster and think "What might have been" if they had McLain for a full year. A fully healthy CES to start the year and kept him. Marte for the first 80 games. Friedl not landing on the IL 3 separate times and only playing in 10% of the games so far.

I mean, when you're expected starting 8 is down by half...there aren't many teams that are going to withstand that. The starting pitching has been pitching very well, and has kept them in a lot of games.

The issue is - the consistency you talked about is lacking because you have too many AAAA players playing every day due to missed time and/or injury.

It sucks because it would have been great to see what happened this year and this team could have then made some supplemental moves...as it is, it's really hard to know exactly what to do when you are missing 50% of your everyday 8...

 

[cincygrad]

I don't disagree with your points, but it's also hard not to look at this roster and think "What might have been" if they had McLain for a full year. A fully healthy CES to start the year and kept him. Marte for the first 80 games. Friedl not landing on the IL 3 separate times and only playing in 10% of the games so far.

I mean, when you're expected starting 8 is down by half...there aren't many teams that are going to withstand that. The starting pitching has been pitching very well, and has kept them in a lot of games.

The issue is - the consistency you talked about is lacking because you have too many AAAA players playing every day due to missed time and/or injury.

It sucks because it would have been great to see what happened this year and this team could have then made some supplemental moves...as it is, it's really hard to know exactly what to do when you are missing 50% of your everyday 8...

I don't disagree. Injuries suck and it probably sunk the season. That said, there is always something with this franchise. Maybe it's the nature of the game when you are in a small market and on tight margins..... Everything has to align to be good. But, I think there are larger, more systemic issues with the franchise. The tradition has always been there. The love affair the city of Cincinnati has with summer baseball is really multigenerational and deep within the city. A good comp is St. Louis - Probably more of an extreme example because that town absolutely loves baseball. But their franchise works at it. They have lean years but they do not last. The Reds just never seem to get it together..... And I think they've had owners that take the city's love of the game for granted.