Reds Thread

[bengaldoug]

So who here thought we would be depending on Curtis Partch, Nick Christiani, and Trevor Bell at the back of our bullpen? Or that one of our major outfield replacements would be Roger Bernardina? Or that our starting catcher would be Brayan Pena?

 

[Cincyfan78]

So who here thought we would be depending on Curtis Partch, Nick Christiani, and Trevor Bell at the back of our bullpen? Or that one of our major outfield replacements would be Roger Bernardina? Or that our starting catcher would be Brayan Pena?

The 'pen will be fine. I don't think they'll have many issues out of the 'pen.

As for the rest of the squad...we'll see.

You can make arguments for this team to do well.

Based on advanced metrics (if you are into that sort of thing) Hamilton could actually end up with a better net of runs than Choo, despite Choo being a far better hitter. This goes into the fact that Choo was the worst rated CF in MLB last year at nearly -17runs...Hamilton is expected to be nearly double that...at +15 runs...add in a paltry .300-.310 average, and figure on 70 SB's, he'll probably still score 100+ runs, and end up with a better net for run production than Choo.

Votto is healthy after a year where he had no power due to his knee. I think we'll see the Votto of 2012 rather than 2013 this year.

Cozart, Frazier, and the Catcher spot only have to be marginally better. That's not asking a lot. Just a tick better on offense, and that will go a long way to producing more runs.

The starting staff will be fine once healthy. Cueto is the only one you might hold your breath on, but the loss of Arroyo really only hurts the 5th spot in the rotation, as, he's not as big of a loss as people make it out to be. This Stephenson kid is just about ready and could add some valuable depth in the minors...talented depth, not just fill in depth.

This bench HAS to be better than last years' right? I mean, even with Skip out a month, this team has to have better hitters than the perinnal outs that were coming off the bench last year.

Lastly...and maybe most importantly...Don't the Cardinals have to falter at some point? I mean, they ran out 75% of their roster as 1st year/2nd year players and steamrolled teams...that can't continue, can it? LOL


Of course, this is only if you want to be positive. Since we haven't lost a game yet...or another player to injury...I'm going to take this route...I reserve the right to change my mind at roughly 7:00pm tonight after the game....LOL

 

[cincygrad]

Wait..... Did you say Billy Hamilton was going to bat .300?

 

[cincygrad]

I'd set the Hamilton over/under at .250.

What do you got?

 

[ckhokie]

OBP may be .300-.310. Not BA.

.250 is a good benchmark. Anything over that would be a success.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I'd set the Hamilton over/under at .250.

What do you got?

OBP may be .300-.310. Not BA.

.250 is a good benchmark. Anything over that would be a success.

Sorry...OBP .310ish..

not average. My bad...couldnt go back and edit it due to time restraints...

 

[bengaldoug]

Hamilton will most definitely be an upgrade defensively. Offensively? Uh, no........

 

[Cincyfan78]

Hamilton will most definitely be an upgrade defensively. Offensively? Uh, no........

That wasn't the point though. We all know he's a downgrade offensively. There is zero debate about that.

The point was his defensive metrics will end up outweighing the loss of offensive production from Choo.

Choo was so bad in CF, that as good as Hamilton is projected to be defensively could, potentially, make up MORE than what the Reds lost with Choo on offense.

Again, that is assuming around a .310 clip on OBP, and about 60-70 stolen bases, and roughly 100 runs...

All if you are into the SABR numbers.

 

[bengaldoug]

The 'pen will be fine. I don't think they'll have many issues out of the 'pen.


This assumes an awful lot. It assumes that Chappy will come back as the same guy, easily overcoming his mental and emotional issues. It assumes that Broxton will come back strong. It assumes Marshall will recover, which I believe is the biggest question this season. It assumes that guys like Ondrusek are ready to assume more important roles. If they have to rely on Trevor Bell, Nick Christiani and Curtis Partch for more than a couple weeks then the 'pen is most certainly not fine.

 

[Cincyfan78]

The 'pen will be fine. I don't think they'll have many issues out of the 'pen.


This assumes an awful lot. It assumes that Chappy will come back as the same guy, easily overcoming his mental and emotional issues. It assumes that Broxton will come back strong. It assumes Marshall will recover, which I believe is the biggest question this season. It assumes that guys like Ondrusek are ready to assume more important roles. If they have to rely on Trevor Bell, Nick Christiani and Curtis Partch for more than a couple weeks then the 'pen is most certainly not fine.

LeCure, Simon, Hoover, Parra will all be fine. Broxton is only a week away, and has been throwing for a bit now.

If Chapman were out for the season, I wouldn't blink. Closers are a dime a dozen, and his save % is WORSE than Coco's was as a red. Sure, he's nice to have, but he is statistically none the better than every other closer out there, on average. Better than some, worse than others. He throws really hard. Great. It hasn't converted itself into being a 96%-99% success rate...Closing is probably the most over-rated position in MLB, IMO.

The MLB average is something like 94-95% success rate on closing situations...Mariano Rivera, the best closer EVER, was like at 96%, maybe 97%...a whopping 1%, or heck 2% difference. Yawn. I'd rather save my millions for other impact positions.

 

[cincygrad]

That wasn't the point though. We all know he's a downgrade offensively. There is zero debate about that.

The point was his defensive metrics will end up outweighing the loss of offensive production from Choo.

Choo was so bad in CF, that as good as Hamilton is projected to be defensively could, potentially, make up MORE than what the Reds lost with Choo on offense.

Again, that is assuming around a .310 clip on OBP, and about 60-70 stolen bases, and roughly 100 runs...

All if you are into the SABR numbers.

 

[kramer1]

I fucking hate baseball dorks.

Carry on.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I fucking hate baseball dorks.

Carry on.

That's all fine and well, but to sit there and talk about BA, and RBI like it's the be all end all is equally ridiculous.

Besides, it doesn't take a genious to figure: if Hamilton will save you 32 more runs over the course of the season, and scores 100 runs...anything that is above "normal" will simply be gravy. He'll have more than off-set the loss of Choo.

 

[kramer1]

That's all fine and well, but to sit there and talk about BA, and RBI like it's the be all end all is equally ridiculous.

Besides, it doesn't take a genious to figure: if Hamilton will save you 32 more runs over the course of the season, and scores 100 runs...anything that is above "normal" will simply be gravy. He'll have more than off-set the loss of Choo.

Choo played fine defense. You're talking out your ass.

 

[Cincyfan78]

Choo played fine defense. You're talking out your ass.

You, sir, don't know what you are talking about with advanced metrics.


UZR | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library

First read up on it. Defensive runs saved.

Now, go to this, and look at Choo:

Cincinnati Reds Leaderboards » 2013 » Center Feilders » Fielding Statistics | FanGraphs Baseball

-16.9, or -17 to round.

Hamilton, obviously, barely played. But, it's not hard to expect a minimum of +10. His theorized UZR above average for 150innings is +23. Choos' was -17 exactly. That would be a difference of 40 runs saved over 150 innings.

Should I continue to talk out of my ass, or do you need a tutor to explain it all?

 

[bengaldoug]

LeCure, Simon, Hoover, Parra will all be fine. Broxton is only a week away, and has been throwing for a bit now.

If Chapman were out for the season, I wouldn't blink. Closers are a dime a dozen, and his save % is WORSE than Coco's was as a red. Sure, he's nice to have, but he is statistically none the better than every other closer out there, on average. Better than some, worse than others. He throws really hard. Great. It hasn't converted itself into being a 96%-99% success rate...Closing is probably the most over-rated position in MLB, IMO.

The MLB average is something like 94-95% success rate on closing situations...Mariano Rivera, the best closer EVER, was like at 96%, maybe 97%...a whopping 1%, or heck 2% difference. Yawn. I'd rather save my millions for other impact positions.

That number is more like 85%, but I agree with your closer premise. But Chappy's true value is the ability to overpower hitters like no one else, no matter whether he does it in the ninth inning or the sixth. Put it another way. Would you rather have Chappy in our bullpen, or Curtis Partch?

 

[kramer1]

You, sir, don't know what you are talking about with advanced metrics.


UZR | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library

First read up on it. Defensive runs saved.

Now, go to this, and look at Choo:

Cincinnati Reds Leaderboards » 2013 » Center Feilders » Fielding Statistics | FanGraphs Baseball

-16.9, or -17 to round.

Hamilton, obviously, barely played. But, it's not hard to expect a minimum of +10. His theorized UZR above average for 150innings is +23. Choos' was -17 exactly. That would be a difference of 40 runs saved over 150 innings.

Should I continue to talk out of my ass, or do you need a tutor to explain it all?

Those numbers aren't derived from fact. They're derived from dorks who never played the game.

Choo was fine in CF. Hamilton is a MAJOR dropoff from Choo in CF. This will cost the team wins.

 

[Cincyfan78]

Those numbers aren't derived from fact. They're derived from dorks who never played the game.

Choo was fine in CF. Hamilton is a MAJOR dropoff from Choo in CF. This will cost the team wins.

You've been hitting the bottle early today, I see....

 

[bengaldoug]

Those numbers aren't derived from fact. They're derived from dorks who never played the game.

Choo was fine offensively in CF. Hamilton is a MAJOR dropoff offensively from Choo in CF. .

 

[cincygrad]

Hamilton is dialed in today.

All-Pro.