Reds Thread

[bengaldoug]

Maybe, but that's a more narrow view.

If they miss out on the playoffs I would be more apt to look at the games they absolutely should have won.

You can start by their poor record against .500 teams (Cubs not included).

You can look at the 3 game sweep out in SD after rolling the Giants.

I understand that the Cardinals are the bar that is set before the Reds, but I think too many people focus on just them and forget that there are still 144 games played that are not against the Cardinals. The Cardinals account for just 11% of the schedule. If the Reds lose 11 of those 18 games, I am willing to bet that I can find 11 other losses that should have been wins that would have easily made up the difference. In the big 162, playing just 1 team doesn't mean jack. Even the Cardinals.

I believe you're missing the bigger picture. We don't just need to make the playoffs, we want to advance and someday soon win a World Series. The Cards have won twice recently and have dominated the division. If we hope to meet our biggest goals the Cards must be vanquished, and we've shown no ability to do that. Until we do, all our playoff appearances are most likely to be the same one and done we've had lately.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I believe you're missing the bigger picture. We don't just need to make the playoffs, we want to advance and someday soon win a World Series. The Cards have won twice recently and have dominated the division. If we hope to meet our biggest goals the Cards must be vanquished, and we've shown no ability to do that. Until we do, all our playoff appearances are most likely to be the same one and done we've had lately.

I don't dispute that notion at all. I'm just saying, for playoff purposes, it means little.

Sure, meeting them in the playoffs would look brighter if the Reds had more success in the regular season against them. I don't deny that at all.

As I said, the Cardinals set the bar that the Reds hope to achieve. I just meant, in the big 162, I think too much time is spent on the Cardinals in general, or for playoff purposes.

 

[bengaldoug]

Wow, what a comeback!!!!!

Santiago and Pena >>>>>>>>>> Phillips and Votto? Who'da thunk it?

 

[cincygrad]

Terrific..... Let's pitch to McCutchen.... He'll never beat us.

 

[bengaldoug]

I hate that bastard.....wish we had him.......

 

[bengaldoug]

Kristopher Negron for President!!!!

 

[bengaldoug]

Chapman now averaging more than 2 k's per inning......

 

[cincygrad]

The team is looking great heading into the break -- I've been as big of a pessimist as anyone for most of the season, but I have to hand it to the club as they've managed to climb back into the race without getting much of anything from some of the high price 'talent' on the team.... Hell, they seem to play better when the the big names keep getting injured. The way they finished last year, it seemed the team had absolutely no heart or no desire to even try to win. This year's team is pretty scrappy....

Of course if I would have said Frazier and Mes would be all-stars before the season, Kramer would have made fun of me for weeks. And Hamilton is MUCH better than anyone could have predicted.

All that said, I still think this team has way too many flaws and too many injuries to make a run in October..... But at least they're a more enjoyable club than the team that ended last season.

 

[kramer1]

As soon as Votto comes back my optimism will wane.

 

[DanBengalfan]

Domo arigato the Joey Votto

 

[Cincyfan78]

The key in the 2nd half will be the ability for Frazier, Meso, and Hamilton to continue to produce like they have.

If they do that and IF they can get Phillips back at near 100%, and Votto back in September at 80%, the depth of the team will be that much better with everyone having had to play more.

Time will tell.

 

[DanBengalfan]

the reds know their roll:
stay just behind the cards and don't make them look bad.

St. Louis 52 44 .542 1.0
Cincinnati 51 44 .537 1.5

 

[cincygrad]

The key in the 2nd half will be the ability for Frazier, Meso, and Hamilton to continue to produce like they have.

If they do that and IF they can get Phillips back at near 100%, and Votto back in September at 80%, the depth of the team will be that much better with everyone having had to play more.

Time will tell.

The problem is that this is extremely unlikely. Hamilton is a rookie and he'll likely hit a wall late in the season. Meso has never played this much in the majors and he plays a very grueling position -- He could be fatigued by late in the season. Frazier is now in year 3 of being an every day player, so I think he has a good chance to remain productive and consistent over the course of the year.

 

[bengaldoug]

As soon as Votto comes back my optimism will wane.

I doubt he'll be back this year. They need to trade for some decent help at first for the rest of the year, but they won't.

 

[bengaldoug]

Frazier is 14/1 in the homerun derby. Worth a flyer imo.

 

[bengaldoug]

The problem is that this is extremely unlikely. Hamilton is a rookie and he'll likely hit a wall late in the season. Meso has never played this much in the majors and he plays a very grueling position -- He could be fatigued by late in the season. Frazier is now in year 3 of being an every day player, so I think he has a good chance to remain productive and consistent over the course of the year.

Damn you and your logic.

 

[bengaldoug]

the reds know their roll:
stay just behind the cards and don't make them look bad.

St. Louis 52 44 .542 1.0
Cincinnati 51 44 .537 1.5

Their role is to be the Cards' bitches, and yes, they know it well.

 

[bengaldoug]

Whoever we have playing at the moment, we seem to be able to handle the Pirates and Brewers. It looks like the Brewers are folding, as expected, but the goddamned Cards are still there, and until we beat them I just won't believe we can do it, with Molina or without him. In the end I favor the Cards to win the division again, with the Reds 2nd, the Pirates 3rd, and the Brewers around or under .500.

 

[bengaldoug]

My forecast for the second half: the Reds will stay in the race to the end, with the Cards and Pirates, while the Brewers fade away. Their inability to beat the Cards heads up will be the determining factor in the Cards winning the division once again. They'll beat the Pirates out for second, but neither will outdistance the Giants and Braves for the wild card game. Final record, 86-76, two games out of the wc and three games behind the Birds 89-73. Their 6-12 record vs the Cards will be their undoing.

 

[cincygrad]

My forecast for the second half: the Reds will stay in the race to the end, with the Cards and Pirates, while the Brewers fade away. Their inability to beat the Cards heads up will be the determining factor in the Cards winning the division once again. They'll beat the Pirates out for second, but neither will outdistance the Giants and Braves for the wild card game. Final record, 86-76, two games out of the wc and three games behind the Birds 89-73. Their 6-12 record vs the Cards will be their undoing.

Sounds about right to me.

This would be immediately followed by an offseason of inactivity with our strategy being to roll out the same lineup with a 'healthy' Votto in 2015.