Rebuilding The Defense = Fallacy

[TKO]

Some fans claim the Pats have been rebuilding a championship defense but the facts show a near total failure when taken as a whole.

Seymour, Vrabel, Bruschi and Harrison last played for them in 2008

Top 100 picks used in the ensuing rebuilding years:

2009: #34 Patrick Chung -- #40 Ron Brace -- #41 Darius Butler -- #97 Tyrone McKenzie
2010: #27 McCourty -- #53 Cunningham -- #62 Spikes
2011: #33 Ras-I Dowling
2012: #21 Chandler Jones -- #25 Dont'a Hightower -- #48 Tavon Wilson -- #90 Bequette
2013: #52 Jamie Collins -- #83 Logan Ryan -- #91 Duron Harmon

I don't see how anyone with half a brain can argue that Belichick has been building an NFL defense let alone rebuilding a SB championship one. He's failed to fill holes since 2009 and an honest person would have to admit he's needed to plug more holes created by the players he picked to plug them in the first place.

 

[Drawmeomg]

Filling in the 1st/2nds from the offense:
- 2009: Sebastian Vollmer
- 2010: Rob Gronkowski
- 2011: Nate Solder, Shane Vereen
- 2012: (none)
- 2013: Aaron Dobson

Which brings our totals to:
1 starter from 2009.
3 starters from 2010.
2 starters from 2011.
2 starters from 2012
(Jury is out on 2013)

Which means two starting caliber players in the first two rounds per year 2009-2012.

This is the 3rd or 4th time this has come up. Yes, there are a lot of busts on that list, but please show me a team that has yielded more than 8 starters in the 1st/2nd rounds of the 2009-2012 drafts if you want this complaint to be taken seriously.

 

[TKO]

Filling in the 1st/2nds from the offense:
- 2009: Sebastian Vollmer
- 2010: Rob Gronkowski
- 2011: Nate Solder, Shane Vereen
- 2012: (none)
- 2013: Aaron Dobson

Which brings our totals to:
1 starter from 2009.
3 starters from 2010.
2 starters from 2011.
2 starters from 2012
(Jury is out on 2013)

Which means two starting caliber players in the first two rounds per year 2009-2012.

This is the 3rd or 4th time this has come up. Yes, there are a lot of busts on that list, but please show me a team that has yielded more than 8 starters in the 1st/2nd rounds of the 2009-2012 drafts if you want this complaint to be taken seriously.

Are you aware of the fact that Vereen couldn't beat out Woodhead? Just because players start or get playing time for the Patriots doesn't mean they're great. The defense started five rookies against the Texans for example.

Dobson, as already pointed out...is a receiver that needs to work on his hands.

Vollmer and Gronkowski both had injury questions when they were drafted that have carried into their pro careers. Including all 16 games this year...Gronk will have played 47 of 64 possible games while Vollmer's total will be 59 of 80.

I'll agree to one great player in Gronkowski and two above average tackles...factoring in health.

Please show me a team that has had more top 100 picks than Belichick since 2009.

 

[MrMoJoRisin63]

Are you aware of the fact that Vereen couldn't beat out Woodhead? Just because players start or get playing time for the Patriots doesn't mean they're great. The defense started five rookies against the Texans for example.

Dobson, as already pointed out...is a receiver that needs to work on his hands.

Vollmer and Gronkowski both had injury questions when they were drafted that have carried into their pro careers. Including all 16 games this year...Gronk will have played 47 of 64 possible games while Vollmer's total will be 59 of 80.

I'll agree to one great player in Gronkowski and two above average tackles...factoring in health.

Please show me a team that has had more top 100 picks than Belichick since 2009.

Are you aware that was because of injury more than anything else?

I agree BBs selections especially on defense are questionable. I would sure like to get a LB that can cover, Collins has potential there. Spikes is great at stopping the run, Donta just don't know yet. BB has made a lot of bad picks in the secondary, I mean awful.

 

[TKO]

Are you aware that was because of injury more than anything else?

I agree BBs selections especially on defense are questionable. I would sure like to get a LB that can cover, Collins has potential there. Spikes is great at stopping the run, Donta just don't know yet. BB has made a lot of bad picks in the secondary, I mean awful.

Are you referring to Vereen vs Woodhead?

2012:
Vereen: 13 games -- 62 carries -- 8 receptions -- 4 Tds

Woodhead: 16 games -- 76 carries -- 40 receptions -- 7 Tds

Woodhead was also the first choice to pick up the blitz and the more durable 3rd down back. He's playing well for the Chargers this year.

 

[JDM]

Woodhead was let go because vereen is better.

You guys really and consistently underestimate the complexity of this offense. You don't jump right in and start. It takes time getting worked in to learn it.

 

[Drawmeomg]

Are you aware of the fact that Vereen couldn't beat out Woodhead? Just because players start or get playing time for the Patriots doesn't mean they're great. The defense started five rookies against the Texans for example.

Are you saying that Vereen isn't a starting caliber RB? Are you even watching these games?

Dobson, as already pointed out...is a receiver that needs to work on his hands.

I'm excluding this year's class - too many times we've seen players start fast and fall off, or start slow and pick it up in years 2 or 3. I'm optimistic about Dobson, Logan Ryan, and to a lesser extend both Harmon and Collins, but it's way too early to judge.

Vollmer and Gronkowski both had injury questions when they were drafted that have carried into their pro careers. Including all 16 games this year...Gronk will have played 47 of 64 possible games while Vollmer's total will be 59 of 80.

I'll agree to one great player in Gronkowski and two above average tackles...factoring in health.

Vollmer and Gronkowski have both been named to the AP All Pro team, so...

Please show me a team that has had more top 100 picks than Belichick since 2009.

Who cares how many picks they had? Every team starts with the same number of picks. The Pats have more because they have a good draft strategy. They have a weakness in their hit %, but they have a strength in their ability to pick more than their share year after year, and when you put it all together, it adds up to better drafting than virtually any other team in the league, at least through the first couple rounds.

Drafting is a bottom line business. Your percentage is not the bottom line. The players you acquire are. And their bottom line for rounds 1 and 2 since Pioli left (the 2006-2008 drafts were an utter black hole of awfulness, let's just not talk about that >.>) is better than nearly any other team's bottom line.

 

[MrMoJoRisin63]

Are you referring to Vereen vs Woodhead?

2012:
Vereen: 13 games -- 62 carries -- 8 receptions -- 4 Tds

Woodhead: 16 games -- 76 carries -- 40 receptions -- 7 Tds

Woodhead was also the first choice to pick up the blitz and the more durable 3rd down back. He's playing well for the Chargers this year.

I am talking period. Vereen was tweeked quite a bit and games suited up for does not mean quality playing time. Vereen picks up the block just fine and has much better pass catching skills than Woodhead. Vereen is the more versitile back which is why the Pats had no issues letting Woodhead go. You have to think about how the team is built. There are bascially (4) RBs and they have different playing styles, this was done on purpose, what Vereen brought to the table is far greater than what Woodhead brought.

 

[JDM]

Who cares how many picks they had? Every team starts with the same number of picks. The Pats have more because they have a good draft strategy. They have a weakness in their hit %, but they have a strength in their ability to pick more than their share year after year, and when you put it all together, it adds up to better drafting than virtually any other team in the league, at least through the first couple rounds.

Drafting is a bottom line business. Your percentage is not the bottom line. The players you acquire are. And their bottom line for rounds 1 and 2 since Pioli left (the 2006-2008 drafts were an utter black hole of awfulness, let's just not talk about that >.>) is better than nearly any other team's bottom line.

The patriots have actually started with less than most teams. Same number of picks, less value.

 

[TKO]

Are you saying that Vereen isn't a starting caliber RB? Are you even watching these games?

I'm excluding this year's class - too many times we've seen players start fast and fall off, or start slow and pick it up in years 2 or 3. I'm optimistic about Dobson, Logan Ryan, and to a lesser extend both Harmon and Collins, but it's way too early to judge.

Vollmer and Gronkowski have both been named to the AP All Pro team, so...

Who cares how many picks they had? Every team starts with the same number of picks. The Pats have more because they have a good draft strategy. They have a weakness in their hit %, but they have a strength in their ability to pick more than their share year after year, and when you put it all together, it adds up to better drafting than virtually any other team in the league, at least through the first couple rounds.

Drafting is a bottom line business. Your percentage is not the bottom line. The players you acquire are. And their bottom line for rounds 1 and 2 since Pioli left (the 2006-2008 drafts were an utter black hole of awfulness, let's just not talk about that >.>) is better than nearly any other team's bottom line.

LOL! Would you say Vereen is a feature back or a role player? Have you been watching NFL football very long?

The Pats have a "good draft strategy"...? Not if you pick players that can't play. When fans say they've had better success than other teams, are they factoring in the higher number of top 100 picks? The failures with those picks? No. they look at a few nuggets found in a whole load of dirt in relation to what other teams have done but it's apples and oranges. For example, if another team doesn't have the same high a number of top 100 picks, they should have have less success so that's not even a sensible argument IMO.

Bottom line...do you think the rebuilding of the championship defense is complete after five years? It's not...but it should be. IMO..Their drafting appears to be so haphazard it doesn't even look like they have a plan. If they have a plan, five drafts should be more than enough to have it in place.

 

[TKO]

The patriots have actually started with less than most teams. Same number of picks, less value.

They've had a plethora of top 100 chips to be honest...maybe they should stop reaching for players with them starting next year. They make moves that the average fan thinks they made because they're smarter than everyone else but in reality, they're foolish mistakes. Tavon Wilson? Duron Harmon? They probably could have picked both of them up as undrafted free agents.

 

[TKO]

I am talking period. Vereen was tweeked quite a bit and games suited up for does not mean quality playing time. Vereen picks up the block just fine and has much better pass catching skills than Woodhead. Vereen is the more versitile back which is why the Pats had no issues letting Woodhead go. You have to think about how the team is built. There are bascially (4) RBs and they have different playing styles, this was done on purpose, what Vereen brought to the table is far greater than what Woodhead brought.

Do you think durability is an issue? It is if you want to make an unbiased assessment of the two players.

 

[MrMoJoRisin63]

Do you think durability is an issue? It is if you want to make an unbiased assessment of the two players.

I don't consider durability a key factor. Players get hurt all the time, it's a part of the game. As I said Vereen' role in the Pats offense was a larger team need than that of Woodhead which is why BB had no issues saying goodbye to Danny.

 

[TKO]

I don't consider durability a key factor. Players get hurt all the time, it's a part of the game. As I said Vereen' role in the Pats offense was a larger team need than that of Woodhead which is why BB had no issues saying goodbye to Danny.

Vereen is signed through 2014 and that has more to do with it than anything else IMO.

 

[Drawmeomg]

Do you think durability is an issue? It is if you want to make an unbiased assessment of the two players.

I think it depends very strongly on the particulars of it. If you want to talk about Gronk's back issues, that's one thing. A freak arm break is another. People just aren't that different in terms of their arm breaking or not when something weird happens. I don't think Gronk has a durability problem at all - but he does have a problem getting to the ground, he makes those Gronk plays where he takes on 6 tacklers and gets 5 more yards, which is awesome to watch but is liable to cause injuries.

Same for Vollmer with the back injury (which is a real concern and has kept him out a lot) versus the broken leg (which is just a fluke - when you get rolled on that way, your leg is gonna break).

Durability and lingering issues matter, but freak injuries can and do happen to anyone.

Bottom line...do you think the rebuilding of the championship defense is complete after five years? It's not...but it should be. IMO..Their drafting appears to be so haphazard it doesn't even look like they have a plan. If they have a plan, five drafts should be more than enough to have it in place.

They played this past game without 5 of 11 opening day defensive starters - including two of their three best defenders, neither of whom has a history of injuries. I do think that not only do they have the personnel for a championship defense, they have the depth for it as well - but there's still a point at which the injuries are too much. You can't lose three of the four players most responsible for stopping the run and expect their run defense to be good. I think they'd be easily the best team in the NFL if they had Mayo and Wilfork right now.

 

[MrMoJoRisin63]

Vereen is signed through 2014 and that has more to do with it than anything else IMO.

You really think Woodhead is a more versatile back?

 

[JDM]

They've had a plethora of top 100 chips to be honest...maybe they should stop reaching for players with them starting next year. They make moves that the average fan thinks they made because they're smarter than everyone else but in reality, they're foolish mistakes. Tavon Wilson? Duron Harmon? They probably could have picked both of them up as undrafted free agents.

Because their strategy is what it is. Fact is, with less starting chips than most, the patriots have gotten the most value.

 

[JDM]

You really think Woodhead is a more versatile back?

It's not even close. Absolutely.

 

[TKO]

I think it depends very strongly on the particulars of it. If you want to talk about Gronk's back issues, that's one thing. A freak arm break is another. People just aren't that different in terms of their arm breaking or not when something weird happens. I don't think Gronk has a durability problem at all - but he does have a problem getting to the ground, he makes those Gronk plays where he takes on 6 tacklers and gets 5 more yards, which is awesome to watch but is liable to cause injuries.

Same for Vollmer with the back injury (which is a real concern and has kept him out a lot) versus the broken leg (which is just a fluke - when you get rolled on that way, your leg is gonna break).

Durability and lingering issues matter, but freak injuries can and do happen to anyone.



They played this past game without 5 of 11 opening day defensive starters - including two of their three best defenders, neither of whom has a history of injuries. I do think that not only do they have the personnel for a championship defense, they have the depth for it as well - but there's still a point at which the injuries are too much. You can't lose three of the four players most responsible for stopping the run and expect their run defense to be good. I think they'd be easily the best team in the NFL if they had Mayo and Wilfork right now.

Wilfork and Kelly will both turn 33 next year and there's no way of knowing how well Wilfork will play coming of a torn achilles. IMO...This team will go as far as Tom Brady can carry them this year and probably next year. It's too bad Belichick's mediocre defenses have wasted the prime years of a once-in-a-lifetime QB like Brady.

 

[MrMoJoRisin63]

It's not even close. Absolutely.

Your opinion never counts as it relates to evaluating talent, you are always way to biased.