Random FF Thoughts

[averagejoe]

Tony Scheffler retired.
2nd round rookie TE Troy Niklas (ARI) broke his hand. (There's goes Foot's super sleeper.)

 

[averagejoe]

Steelers,
Micro,
Duff,
Foot,

Just PM'd you about your 2-QB leagues. If you have access to your 2013 draft results, can you email them to me? For example, I know that you can view the draft results if it was in an ESPN league. I'll accept any kind of format? Even a picture of the draft results. Thanks.

 

[SteelersPride]

replied joe

 

[The Foot]

same

 

[averagejoe]

Testing. One. Two. Three. Is it slow on the board? Or does my computer need to be refreshed?

Was updating my rankings yesterday and comparing it to the Fantasy Pros consensus rankings. Noticed a few things:

Gio is now in the top 12 RB. (Maybe he was a month or so ago, or on the fringes, but he's currently the RB11. Gerhart has climbed to the RB19 spot. Ray Rice's suspension has dropped him to the RB28 spot. Terrance West has jumped to the RB41 spot (prior to this he was essentially unranked).

Brady is the QB11. Never seen him ranked so low. Ever. Flacco is barely hanging on as a backup ranked QB24.

The rookie WR continue to gain some bumps in their rankings and for most that I list here will probably be drafted, despite their surroundings/circumstances (which you probably already know I'm very pessimistic about), such as Watkins WR36 (unproven QB), Evans WR40 (ultra-conservative HC), Cooks WR45 (lots of mouths to feed), Benjamin WR52 (double-teamed?), Beckham WR57 (bipolar Coughlin), Matthews WR58 (I actually like him as a sleeper).

Cameron continues to hold steady as a TE5 despite a new regime coming in. And last season's hyped Cook (he was a top 12 selection in 2013) is a lowly TE20.

Strange rankings. Josh Gordon, Blackmon, and Jon Franklin probably will not play this season, yet all are ranked (150, 216, 241 respectively). On a related note, Mendenhall finally fell off of the list of 272 players.

 

[averagejoe]

Joe, could you run those same numbers for the upcoming season?

On pages 1 & 2 of this thread, I asked some trivia questions regarding the top QB, RB and WR from 2012. As we head into 2014, let's "run those same numbers" as Wil asked.

QUESTION 1
Of this group of elite QB, RB and WR below, who had the MOST weeks of double-digit fantasy points (standard scoring) and who had the LEAST?

QB - Stafford, Luck, Ryan, Newton, RG3, Romo, Brady, & Kaps
RB - AP, Charles, McCoy, Forte, and Lynch
WR - Megatron, Demaryius, Dez, A.J., and Marshall

QUESTION 2
Assuming that most leagues have their fantasy playoffs during weeks 12-14, of this same group, who do you think HELPED your team during those 3 weeks, and who do you think HURT your team?

I'll try to provide the correct answers on Sunday night (6/22).

 

[wilwhite]

One thing's for sure - basing your draft on the answers last year would have helped you at WR but sunk you at RB.

 

[Sam Sportboy]

On pages 1 & 2 of this thread, I asked some trivia questions regarding the top QB, RB and WR from 2012. As we head into 2014, let's "run those same numbers" as Wil asked.

QUESTION 1
Of this group of elite QB, RB and WR below, who had the MOST weeks of double-digit fantasy points (standard scoring) and who had the LEAST?

QB - Stafford, Luck, Ryan, Newton, RG3, Romo, Brady, & Kaps
RB - AP, Charles, McCoy, Forte, and Lynch
WR - Megatron, Demaryius, Dez, A.J., and Marshall

QUESTION 2
Assuming that most leagues have their fantasy playoffs during weeks 12-14, of this same group, who do you think HELPED your team during those 3 weeks, and who do you think HURT your team?

I'll try to provide the correct answers on Sunday night (6/22).

Pure guesses...............
1. Cam and Kaps
Lynch and AP
Dez and Marshall (wouldn't suprise me if it was DThomas instead of Dez)

2. Luck and Stafford
Forte and AP
DThomas and Marshall

 

[leftypower]

On pages 1 & 2 of this thread, I asked some trivia questions regarding the top QB, RB and WR from 2012. As we head into 2014, let's "run those same numbers" as Wil asked.

QUESTION 1
Of this group of elite QB, RB and WR below, who had the MOST weeks of double-digit fantasy points (standard scoring) and who had the LEAST?

QB - Stafford, Luck, Ryan, Newton, RG3, Romo, Brady, & Kaps
RB - AP, Charles, McCoy, Forte, and Lynch
WR - Megatron, Demaryius, Dez, A.J., and Marshall

QUESTION 2
Assuming that most leagues have their fantasy playoffs during weeks 12-14, of this same group, who do you think HELPED your team during those 3 weeks, and who do you think HURT your team?

I'll try to provide the correct answers on Sunday night (6/22).

Question 1
Green = most
Red = least

Question 2
Brady
Charles
A. J.

 

[The Foot]

QUESTION 1
Of this group of elite QB, RB and WR below, who had the MOST weeks of double-digit fantasy points (standard scoring) and who had the LEAST?

QB - Stafford, Luck, Ryan, Newton, RG3, Romo, Brady, & Kaps
RB - AP, Charles, McCoy, Forte, and Lynch
WR - Megatron, Demaryius, Dez, A.J., and Marshall

QUESTION 2
Assuming that most leagues have their fantasy playoffs during weeks 12-14, of this same group, who do you think HELPED your team during those 3 weeks, and who do you think HURT your team?

with out doing any research and just guessing I'll say:

question 1 - ROMO LYNCH DEZ

question 2 Brady, Lynch or Charles and Green helped.
Ryan , Ap, and Marshall hurt

 

[Sam Sportboy]

Didn't Charles have some bad games at the end?

Edit.................just checked.

 

[averagejoe]

Trivia answers.

QUESTION 1
Of this group of elite QB, RB and WR below, who had the MOST weeks of double-digit fantasy points (standard scoring) and who had the LEAST?

QB - Stafford, Luck, Ryan, Newton, RG3, Romo, Brady, & Kaps
RB - AP, Charles, McCoy, Forte, and Lynch
WR - Megatron, Demaryius, Dez, A.J., and Marshall

ANSWERS to 1
QB
Luck had the most with 15 out of 16 weeks scoring double-digit points.
Ryan, Newton, Stafford and Romo were next with 13.
Brady and Kaps each had 12 weeks.
RG3 had the least with 11.

RB
Charles and Forte had the most with 13.
McCoy was next with 12.
Lynch had 11. (Honorable mention goes to Lacy who also had 11.)
AP only had the least with 8 weeks of double-digit scoring.

WR
A.J. had the most with 11 weeks.
Megatron, Demaryius, Dez and Marshall all had 9 weeks.

QUESTION 2
Assuming that most leagues have their fantasy playoffs during weeks 14-16, of this same group, who do you think HELPED your team during those 3 weeks, and who do you think HURT your team?

ANSWERS to 2
QB
Luck had the best playoff scoring with 60 (32-15-13)
Kaepernick was next with 54 (12-20-22)
Brady had 52 (22-20-10)
Romo had 49 (13-16-18)
Newton had 38 (14-15-9)
Ryan had 37 (12-8-17)
Stafford had 19 (6-7-6)
RG3 was the worst with 10 (10-0-0)

RB
Charles had the best with 97 (27-51-19)
A distant 2nd was McCoy with 69 (33-9-27)
Honorable mention goes to Lacy with 57 (23-20-13).
Next was Forte with 39 (23-12-4).
Lynch had 37 (13-17-7).
AP was the worst with 5 (1-0-4).

WR
A.J. had the best with 43 (13-9-21)
Dez was next with 41 (7-21-13)
Both Marshall and Demaryius had 36 (12-15-9; 14-4-18 respectively)
Megatron was lowest with 18 (5-9-4).

 

[averagejoe]

All these "weekly" numbers got me wondering... I used to be in a golf league that discarded your best and worst games, and averaged the rest. So what if I did that with some of the players mentioned above - take out their best games and worst games and see how the rest of the weeks average out. Here's the results:

Peyton is still tops averaging 24.9 points per game.
Brees is next w/ 21.7
Newton is 3rd w/ 17.6
Luck = 17.1
Stafford = 16.8
Kaps - 15.8
Ryan & Romo each averaged 15.1
Brady = 14.4
RG3 = 12.4

Charles = 17.4
McCoy = 16.0
Forte = 15.3
Lynch = 13.7
Lacy = 12.5
AP = 11.6

Demaryius = 13.4
Megatron = 12.6
A.J. = 12.5
Marshall = 12.1
Dez = 12.0

 

[Sam Sportboy]

Well, I got Luck..................lol.

 

[averagejoe]

Joined my 6th ESPN league yesterday (which is my limit) and noticed a message that said 10 free leagues is the max on ESPN. Don't remember seeing that before?

 

[averagejoe]

Here are some random scientific DRAFT numbers.

Looked at one of my leagues from last season and calculated the final rosters. Here's the results:

• Remaining drafted players = 55%. So of all of the players drafted in August, only 55% remained on the rosters in December.
• Free Agents = 40%. Draft day underachievers and disappointments were typically replaced from the free agent pool.
• Trades = 5%. May seem low, but this was actually an increase from the previous season as this league doesn't trade much.

Of the teams with WINNING records, 67% of rosters were originally drafted players, only 28% had free agents, and 5% were trade acquisitions.

Of the teams with LOSING records, 46% of rosters were originally drafted players, only 49% had free agents, and 5% were trade acquisitions.

The league champ had 66% of his original draft picks, 25% were free agents, and 9% trade. (Incidentally, the draft grade that his originally-drafted team was assigned was a "C.")

 

[Barilko]

Awesome work Joe..

 

[averagejoe]

Courtesy of the Newark Star-Ledger via Rotoworld:

The average stat line of a first-round rookie wideout over the last decade is 41 catches, 565 yards, and four touchdowns.

(This year's first-rounders: Watkins, Evans, Cooks, Benjamin, Beckham.)

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Courtesy of the Newark Star-Ledger via Rotoworld:

The average stat line of a first-round rookie wideout over the last decade is 41 catches, 565 yards, and four touchdowns.

(This year's first-rounders: Watkins, Evans, Cooks, Benjamin, Beckham.)

I wonder how many good performances skew that average. For every AJ Green (65/1057/7) there is always a Jonathan Baldwin (21/254/1).

Let's take a quick look at rookie seasons for the top 2 WRs drafted in recent years:

2013 Tavon Austin: 40/418/4
2013 DeAndre Hopkins: 52/802/2
2012 Blackmon: 64/865/5
2012 Michael Floyd: 45/562/2
2011 AJ Green: 65/1057/7
2011 Julio Jones: 54/959/8
2010: Demaryius Thomas: 22/283/2
2010: Dez Bryant: 45/561/6
2009: DHB: 9/124/1
2009: Crabtree: 48/625/2

Watkins/Evans better have more AJ Green/Julio Jones type games if they are going to be useful in fantasy. Julio Jones was a game changer down the stretch, got off to a slow start his rookie year. But unless you are in a keeper/dynasty format, it is not looking good if you reach for a rookie WR.

Damn you Joe and all of your research/stats! I really wanted to believe that Watkins could deliver WR2 numbers this year, but it looks like he'd have to be really special to be able to do that. Most are borderline bye week fill-ins their rookie seasons.

 

[TREFF]

Courtesy of the Newark Star-Ledger via Rotoworld:

The average stat line of a first-round rookie wideout over the last decade is 41 catches, 565 yards, and four touchdowns.

(This year's first-rounders: Watkins, Evans, Cooks, Benjamin, Beckham.)

Of those 4, Cooks is the only one I would bet on to exceed those averages in year one.