Thoughts after Week 6...

[eaglesnut]

Generally thinking this by conference

NFC Conference favorites:

Eagles
49ers

Viable NFC contender:

Lions

NFC pretender:

Seahawks
Cowboys
Rams
[Insert NFC South division winner here]

Will Be Happy Just to play in January:

Packers
Commanders
Falcons/Saints/Bucs division loser

No Man's Land:

Vikings

Ought to be tanking at this point

Giants
Bears
Panthers
Cardinals

AFC Favorites:

Chiefs
Bills

Viable AFC Contenders:

Dolphins
Bengals
Ravens

AFC Pretenders:

Jaguars
Browns
Steelers
Chargers

Will Be Happy Just to Play in January

Jets
Texans

No Man's Land:

Colts
Titans
Raiders

Ought to be Tanking at this Point:

Broncos
Patriots

Rams might be better than you think.

Nailed the rest of the NFC.

 

[eaglesnut]

Generally thinking this by conference

NFC Conference favorites:

Eagles
49ers

Viable NFC contender:

Lions

NFC pretender:

Seahawks
Cowboys
Rams
[Insert NFC South division winner here]

Will Be Happy Just to play in January:

Packers
Commanders
Falcons/Saints/Bucs division loser

No Man's Land:

Vikings

Ought to be tanking at this point

Giants
Bears
Panthers
Cardinals

AFC Favorites:

Chiefs
Bills

Viable AFC Contenders:

Dolphins
Bengals
Ravens

AFC Pretenders:

Jaguars
Browns
Steelers
Chargers

Will Be Happy Just to Play in January

Jets
Texans

No Man's Land:

Colts
Titans
Raiders

Ought to be Tanking at this Point:

Broncos
Patriots

Don't count the Jags out yet. One of the best coaches in the league down there. Doug gets his teams going in the right direction by the end of the year.

May as well throw the Chargers into No Man's Land. What a mess.

 

[PDay8810]

thoughts?
11 or 12 games yet to be played

today
niners & chiefs

 

[Anointed One]

JETS: Gritty, tough team... I love how they've responded w/out Rodgers... Z. Wilson is benefiting with the JETS getting some wins...

STEELERS: Very disappointing team so far... Their offense looks awful...

TEXANS: Look out... Their offense AND defense are building up steam... Could be a darkhorse to win the division or grab a WC spot... Favorable schedule ahead of them...

CHARGERS: K. Mack is back... On pace for 23.5 sacks for the year... ... Doesn't matter anyways because the Chargers won't take advantage of that or their QB play due to the poor leadership w/in the org...

WASH: What is that team's identity?

LIONS: Very happy for this team... I'm definitely pulling for them each and every week... Love their coach and the players that have assembled... Looks like this team is well balanced all the way around... Definitely a team that could go the distance, imo...

SAINTS: Great example of D. Carr being overrated... Very good QB's can elevate an offense... I have yet to see Carr really do any of that... This is why I was perfectly fine with the Hawks rolling with Geno Smith instead of signing D. Carr... Almost the same exact QB and Geno knows our offense...

SEAHAWKS: Witherspoon is rated as the #3 CB in the league according to PFF... Adams finally played a full game and played well... Should be fun watching Spoon/Adams on the field at the same time... Seahawks are a darkhorse for sure... Hopefully their defense continues to improve because our offense seems to struggle a bit at times...

 

[eaglesnut]

SEAHAWKS: Witherspoon is rated as the #3 CB in the league according to PFF... Adams finally played a full game and played well... Should be fun watching Spoon/Adams on the field at the same time... Seahawks are a darkhorse for sure... Hopefully their defense continues to improve because our offense seems to struggle a bit at times...

Not with Geno. Lol

 

[Maximus Rex]

Generally thinking this by conference

NFC Conference favorites:

Eagles - Yep.
49ers -Yep.

Viable NFC contender:

Lions - Yep.

NFC pretender:

Seahawks - Could win a playoff game.
Cowboys - Could make the NFC Championship, real volatile right now.
Rams - Same as Cowboys, but to a lesser extent of having a chance at NFC Championship game.
[Insert NFC South division winner here] No argument there.

Will Be Happy Just to play in January:

Packers J. Love reverting to the first few weeks of the season could win them a playoff game
Commanders - Rivera is gonna get fired, not going anywhere.
Falcons/Saints/Bucs division loser - Yep, none of these are going anywhere from what we've seen so far.

No Man's Land:

Vikings - Could make the playoffs if they revert to remembering how to win close game, but not likely.

Ought to be tanking at this point - Yep on all these.

Giants
Bears
Panthers
Cardinals

AFC Favorites:

Chiefs - Yep.
Bills - Yep, cut down on the turnovers

Viable AFC Contenders:

Dolphins - Yep, if you put up offense like this, always a chance
Bengals - Think they'll pick up steam and be with the favorites before long
Ravens - Need to learn to protect the ball; how they lost to the Steelers is beyond me.

AFC Pretenders:

Jaguars - Not quite as good as hyped this year.
Browns - Good defense, inconsistent offense
Steelers - Crawl to somewhere around .500, barely. Blah. Not going anywhere.
Chargers - It seems for the last 10 years, the Chargers will just charger, despite looking real good on paper.

Will Be Happy Just to Play in January

Jets - Good D, otherwise blah, won't get them anywhere in January, D ain't that good to pull them into the playoffs.
Texans - Surprisingly good, give it another year, and they'll be making a solid run.

No Man's Land: Yep, blah on all.

Colts
Titans
Raiders

Ought to be Tanking at this Point: Yep, blah on all.

Broncos
Patriots

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

Looking at the Lions second half schedule, they have a legit chance to be in the mix for the #1 seed in the NFC. 5 games in division and the division sucks. Only the Bears is a possible "bad weather" game. At Ravens this week and then only at Cowboys and Chargers real question marks but I think they could possibly beat them both. I said 12 wins earlier but that could be 13 or 14 easily. That would be huge for this cursed franchise. Goff a dark horse MVP candidate as well. Whoulda thunk that back when the Rams made the move for Stafford. Most thought Goff was being shipped off to a Siberian gulag to disappear forever.

 

[belcherboy]

That dead cap hit says otherwise.

It's either bite the bullet now, or be on the hook for a fully guaranteed contract later.

Will Broncos move on from Russell Wilson after 2023?

When the Broncos traded for quarterback Russell Wilson in March 2022, he didn't get a new contract.

www.nbcsports.com

 

[Tainthappening]

Looking at the Lions second half schedule, they have a legit chance to be in the mix for the #1 seed in the NFC. 5 games in division and the division sucks. Only the Bears is a possible "bad weather" game. At Ravens this week and then only at Cowboys and Chargers real question marks but I think they could possibly beat them both. I said 12 wins earlier but that could be 13 or 14 easily. That would be huge for this cursed franchise. Goff a dark horse MVP candidate as well. Whoulda thunk that back when the Rams made the move for Stafford. Most thought Goff was being shipped off to a Siberian gulag to disappear forever.

Agree... NFCN has AFCW and NFCS this year and Lions already beat Chiefs which is probably most difficult of the 8 games.

Barring injuries... probably only a couple of games they will not be favored to win.

 

[fastforward]

Looking at the Lions second half schedule, they have a legit chance to be in the mix for the #1 seed in the NFC. 5 games in division and the division sucks. Only the Bears is a possible "bad weather" game. At Ravens this week and then only at Cowboys and Chargers real question marks but I think they could possibly beat them both. I said 12 wins earlier but that could be 13 or 14 easily. That would be huge for this cursed franchise. Goff a dark horse MVP candidate as well. Whoulda thunk that back when the Rams made the move for Stafford. Most thought Goff was being shipped off to a Siberian gulag to disappear forever.

There were plenty of us who thought that Goff was a good QB who had some issues. However, the HC wanted Stafford in and Goff gone. There was no way to fit both under the cap, even temporarily, so the Rams either had to trade Goff away before acquiring Stafford or overpay the Lions in a QB swap. Fans understood the short term gain that Stafford provided and the potential longer term loss if/when Goff improved. I really didn't like the trade but having a QB and HC at loggerheads wasn't a better option. People also tend to forget that Goff's 1st season in Detroit was pretty awful.

 

[fastforward]

It's either bite the bullet now, or be on the hook for a fully guaranteed contract later.

Will Broncos move on from Russell Wilson after 2023?

When the Broncos traded for quarterback Russell Wilson in March 2022, he didn't get a new contract.

www.nbcsports.com

The Broncos paying Wilson $39M to go away is extremely unlikely. (The team would get zero value for that and paying him an additional $37M for 2 full seasons looks like a better option). Another team paying Wilson the full $76M he is due over the next 2 seasons is also unlikely. The most likely option is that the Broncos agree to pay a $20M or so chunk of the $39M Wilson is due in 2024 so that another team can acquire him at around $56M. Unfortunately that would be the worst possible cap outcome for the Broncos.

There are almost certainly offsets in Wilson's contract to prevent him from fully double-dipping if the Broncos were to cut him. I don't know what the offsets are, and I doubt Florio does either.

 

[fightinfunbags]

If we are making a determination on October 18th, the Eagles aren’t a Super Bowl team. But the Super Bowl isn’t played in October. The Eagles are dealing with the transition that comes from being good. They lost both coordinators to other franchises to become head coach. They’ve gotten early returns from Desai at DC. He’s been incredible at halftime making adjustments despite dealing with injuries at Lb and in the secondary. The take away rate is the only defensive metric where I think they have lacked. The offensive side of the ball…Guh. It’s been a struggle as they try and establish their identity. The OC, Hurts, and the rest of the offense aren’t on the same page. The numbers have been solid but that’s misleading because of the early season Eagles schedule being light. But if you watch them every week you can see frustration. They’ve been poor closing drives in the red zone. They’ve been poor in game planning their weapons.

All the pieces are in place for them to be great. And I have faith in this group under Siriani to get the ship righted. In Siriani’s first year, they opened 2-5 and they were able to fix it and rally the troops finishing 9-8 and making the playoffs. Hurts is a gym rat. He’s the first to arrive and the last to leave every day. I’m not betting against that guy’s work ethic. At the same time, at this moment, this team needs a lot of work to actually become a legit contender.

 

[Cincyfan78]

For the Bengals - Burrow may not be 100% all year, but the difference between his ability to move around in weeks 1-4 and weeks 5-6 are night and day. It's not even close. Those 1st few weeks, he just sat there and took the hits because he couldn't operate around blitzes where teams were sending 6-7 guys. The last 2 weeks, he's been able to do things that are more normal. With the bye this week, and having several weeks now of full no-restriction practices...I think we'll see Burrow be himself more the rest of the year than he was in weeks 1-4, but ultimately as the offense does go with/without his ability it is the run game, IMO, that is going to hold this team back offensively.

Mixon is one of the worst rated RB's in the NFL in the advanced metrics - and if teams are able to go with light boxes, and stack the secondary (and they can, and they are) and not worry about the running game, it is going to hamstring the offense. I don't know if Chase Brown is the answer, or not, but he certainly cannot be worse than Mixon.

Of the 54 RBs that have carried the ball at least 25 times this season, Joe Mixon ranks...40th in Yards After Contact, 42nd in Breakout Run Percentage, 44th in Elusive Rating. Last year he was one of the worst against "light" boxes on defense (7 defenders or less). If you can't get short yardage situations executed, and you can't take advantage of 6-7 man boxes to force the defense in...this offense is going to be tasked with grinding out every single drive for TD's, and lack explosive plays...that will completely screw with consistency in scoring and being able to sustain drives. IMO, this is becoming the big issue on offense now that Burrow's calf is at least to a point where he looks normal again.

 

[fightinfunbags]

For the Bengals - Burrow may not be 100% all year, but the difference between his ability to move around in weeks 1-4 and weeks 5-6 are night and day. It's not even close. Those 1st few weeks, he just sat there and took the hits because he couldn't operate around blitzes where teams were sending 6-7 guys. The last 2 weeks, he's been able to do things that are more normal. With the bye this week, and having several weeks now of full no-restriction practices...I think we'll see Burrow be himself more the rest of the year than he was in weeks 1-4, but ultimately as the offense does go with/without his ability it is the run game, IMO, that is going to hold this team back offensively.

Mixon is one of the worst rated RB's in the NFL in the advanced metrics - and if teams are able to go with light boxes, and stack the secondary (and they can, and they are) and not worry about the running game, it is going to hamstring the offense. I don't know if Chase Brown is the answer, or not, but he certainly cannot be worse than Mixon.

Of the 54 RBs that have carried the ball at least 25 times this season, Joe Mixon ranks...40th in Yards After Contact, 42nd in Breakout Run Percentage, 44th in Elusive Rating. Last year he was one of the worst against "light" boxes on defense (7 defenders or less). If you can't get short yardage situations executed, and you can't take advantage of 6-7 man boxes to force the defense in...this offense is going to be tasked with grinding out every single drive for TD's, and lack explosive plays...that will completely screw with consistency in scoring and being able to sustain drives. IMO, this is becoming the big issue on offense now that Burrow's calf is at least to a point where he looks normal again.

I have Mixon in fantasy. If you hear anything about him getting replaced or work load reduced this week during bye, would appreciate that inside scoop.