Random FF Thoughts

[wilwhite]

As to the focus on mid-rounds idea - I think what we're all after is the FJAXes, the guys who have an incorrectly low ADP.

I'm developing a theory here, but maybe one way to go about it is to identify Unsubstantiated Hype, and take the other guy.

The Unsubstantiated Hype last year (easy to see in hindsght) was that Spiller would get a lot more touches, be just as productive in a lead role as he was in a change-of-pace role, and hold up physically in that role. So FJAX would have been a good grab. (I was right on Spiller but completely blind to FJAX, which was stupid.) This obviously won't work all the time (since sometimes the Unsubstantiated Hype had something to it after all, or the next guy is also worthless) but it might be a better bet than others.

Oter unsubstantiated hype from last year was that Lamar Miller would be a bell cow, Montee would get a lot of work, and Daryl Richardson would be the lead back in St. Louis.

Looking around now, I see unsubstantiated hype around these top-20-ADP RBs:

• Le'Veon Bell (crummy YPC as the lead back and they brought over Blount)
• Gio (I like him, but expectations that they'll use him differently than last year is all speculation; they kept LawFirm)
• Stacy (I think his success last year was mostly circumstantial)
• Jennings (this is the same guy who was a turd in Jacksonville when they needed him)
• Gerhart (backup YPC is a poor indicator of success as a starter, especially when you go to another team)
• Sankey (hasn't played in the NFL - the perceived value here is based a lot on opportunity; and he was drafted late enough that there's no special pressure to play him if someone else is doing well)

So some guys I would look to be next year's FJAXes would be (in no particular order) Blount, DWilson (Coughlin is allergic to rookies), Todman or Denard - probably Todman because Denard isn't a true RB, Greene, and Tre Mason. I wouldn't bite on LawFirm because even if Gio is held to last year's numbers there isn't enough for LawFirm to thrive.

Looks like all those guys could be had in the late rounds (except Wilson may rise). The guy everybody in the universe seems to be missing here (including me until a few minutes ago) is Greene. (He went in the 11th round of the Coma league.) Greene will probably have GL duty anyway, and McCluster is not an every-down back. If Sankey has any trouble adjusting to the NFL, Greene will be a solid RB2 for very cheap.

Then there's the Unsubstantiated Negative Hype, that's pushing guys down... but that's another post.

 

[TKOSpikes]

I like it! Definitely the road I was looking to travel.

 

[TK21775]

Looks like it could be a few weeks to get use to playing together, not that it seemed like too many Dolphins were projected to get picked high

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Rice out for the first 2 weeks only, not bad for beating your wife (was only fiancee then, but that still doesn't make it right!).

Blackmon gets ANOTHER pot charge. Yikes.

Not sure I've told the Jags thanks yet, but wow am I glad the Rams didn't draft this guy.

 

[TK21775]

Rice out for the first 2 weeks only, not bad for beating your wife (was only fiancee then, but that still doesn't make it right!).

Blackmon gets ANOTHER pot charge. Yikes.

Not sure I've told the Jags thanks yet, but wow am I glad the Rams didn't draft this guy.

Was really hoping the Bucs drafted him and now I'm very glad they didn't as well

 

[TK21775]

Trent Richardson reported as playing with a separated AC joint and chipped collarbone last season

 

[Bandit]

Trent Richardson reported as playing with a separated AC joint and chipped collarbone last season

I would say that too if I averaged 3.0 yards a carry last year.

 

[TK21775]

I would say that too if I averaged 3.0 yards a carry last year.

Said off-season surgery and the coach says he's a lot more comfortable running and with the playbook; I'd say the same things as well though after last season's performance

 

[averagejoe]

Trent Richardson reported as playing with a separated AC joint and chipped collarbone last season

I was willing to take on chance on him thinking that he just a down year. But if he had joint and collarbone chip problems, to go along with his cracked ribs in his rookie season, he maybe too much of an injury risk to draft.

 

[TK21775]

Looks like Trent Richardson has a little less competition, Ballard torn Achilles tendon today, carted off practice

 

[Barilko]

Looks like Trent Richardson has a little less competition, Ballard torn Achilles tendon today, carted off practice

and you know Bradshaw will also limp off soon

 

[averagejoe]

Bar & TKO... my son just got home from a trip to NY and ON. He brought me home some souvenirs. One was a Blackhawks shirt from the NHL store in NY. The other was 930g can of Tim Horton's ground coffee! Awesome.

 

[Barilko]

Bar & TKO... my son just got home from a trip to NY and ON. He brought me home some souvenirs. One was a Blackhawks shirt from the NHL store in NY. The other was 930g can of Tim Horton's ground coffee! Awesome.

Very nice Joe to bad he didnt bring some Quebec Maple Syrup

nice win a little revenge for 71

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Looking around now, I see unsubstantiated hype around these top-20-ADP RBs:
Le'Veon Bell (crummy YPC as the lead back and they brought over Blount)
Gio (I like him, but expectations that they'll use him differently than last year is all speculation; they kept LawFirm)
Stacy (I think his success last year was mostly circumstantial)
Jennings (this is the same guy who was a turd in Jacksonville when they needed him)
Gerhart (backup YPC is a poor indicator of success as a starter, especially when you go to another team)
Sankey (hasn't played in the NFL - the perceived value here is based a lot on opportunity; and he was drafted late enough that there's no special pressure to play him if someone else is doing well)

so some hype is warranted and pans out (Bell/Gio), and some hype gets players drafted that we end up dropping or benching immediately (Gerhart/Sankey)

 

[Barilko]

so some hype is warranted and pans out (Bell/Gio), and some hype gets players drafted that we end up dropping or benching immediately (Gerhart/Sankey)

Hey Monkey how are folks in St Lou
pretty tough loosing Qb again...anyone excited for the Blues

 

[TKOSpikes]

Matt Ryan has ONE game at the Georgia Dome between now and Week 12!! Home to the Bears in week 6. "Hosting" the Lions in England. Not until Week 12 when Cleveland visits do the Falcons see their home field again. I don't hsve Matty Ice's split stats, but I know they aren't what he would like.

 

[averagejoe]

Heard this on the radio the other day:

Only 2 players have 27 receiving TD going back to the 2012 season. Jimmy Graham & Brandon Marshall.

 

[Chef99]

Hey, you think Josh McCown is breathing a sigh of relief now that he's going to be out for several weeks?

 

[averagejoe]

Hey, you think Josh McCown is breathing a sigh of relief now that he's going to be out for several weeks?

There's a lot of things that I haven't gotten right in FF. But I saw this one a mile away. That's why Josh didn't crack my top 24 in the rankings game. (Of course, he's is ranked 14th currently. Patience, young jedi. Patience.)

 

[TREFF]

Heard this on the radio the other day:

Only 2 players have 27 receiving TD going back to the 2012 season. Jimmy Graham & Brandon Marshall.

Going back to 2012, I've never owned either if them