Random FF Thoughts

[TREFF]

then I guess we would need to start by defining fantasy relevant... But the point is with football becoming so pass heavy... and with TEs being separated between being a blocking and being a receiving focus... and with 5 New Rookie Starting TEs... believing at least one of them will be a TE1 is not far fetched at all... now guessing which one is another story... but I think it is a safe bet that at least one will be a TE1...

My bet would be on Laporta...

Realistic Expectations For Rookie Tight Ends In 2023 Fantasy Football | Underdog Network

With a great tight end class set for the draft what are the realistic expectations for them in year one?

underdognetwork.com

Pretty extensive analysis...end result..slight up tick of production per reception, virtually no change in snap rates or overall usage/production.


Of course there CAN be an outlier, it's just not a high percentage bet to place.

Is LaPorta can block, maintain a high snap percentage, sure, he can be that guy..maybe.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

How often are rookie TEs tabbed to be the starter in pre-season?

I agree with Milk, but not because of TEs. Because of WRs. Rookies WR have suddenly become startable in FF. I think there's less fear about starting a rookie TE, especially if he's not expected to block much.

LaPorta is my only TE in BATG. I'm not that scared because I know I can find a guy on the wire who's within shouting distance of all but the top few TEs if he doesn't work out. And if he does - and I think the Lions are perfect for it - well, yay.

my post was not well written or understood... the enough evidence in the first paragraph was not based entirely on TEs... so we actually agree on why...

 

[TREFF]

How often are rookie TEs tabbed to be the starter in pre-season?

I agree with Milk, but not because of TEs. Because of WRs. Rookies WR have suddenly become startable in FF. I think there's less fear about starting a rookie TE, especially if he's not expected to block much.

LaPorta is my only TE in BATG. I'm not that scared because I know I can find a guy on the wire who's within shouting distance of all but the top few TEs if he doesn't work out. And if he does - and I think the Lions are perfect for it - well, yay.

Well I'd repeat with the article I posted in response to Milk..the stats don't lie. We can force ourselves to feel better about through various rationalizations, gut feelings, or eyeball tests..but in the end the rookie TE who is productive is a rare outlier.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Realistic Expectations For Rookie Tight Ends In 2023 Fantasy Football | Underdog Network

With a great tight end class set for the draft what are the realistic expectations for them in year one?

underdognetwork.com

Pretty extensive analysis...end result..slight up tick of production per reception, virtually no change in snap rates or overall usage/production.


Of course there CAN be an outlier, it's just not a high percentage bet to place.

Is LaPorta can block, maintain a high snap percentage, sure, he can be that guy..maybe.

but again, this season is clearly different... these rookie TEs are all getting starting positions... we can't ignore that while hiding behind historical evidence... History is history... the present is present... pretending they are the same is not good strategy...

 

[TREFF]

So long as coaches value pass pro and run blocking at TE, or until rookies who can fly up the seam are also ready and able blockers, it won't change.

Sean Peyton, who let the no blocking Jimmy Graham set TE records, just stuck Dulcich at #2, and waived/traded freak athlete AlbertO...becuase they dont/cant/won't block


I'd make a friendly wager Mayer is the highest per game producer of the rookie TE class, becuase he blocks, and blocks very well. And I'm certainly not in a rush to take him in a redraft either

 

[TREFF]

but again, this season is clearly different... these rookie TEs are all getting starting positions... we can't ignore that while hiding behind historical evidence... History is history... the present is present... pretending they are the same is not good strategy...

Same story every year..every year, history just adds another chapter.

And these 'starting roles'?? Highly doubtful it plays out that way through the course of a game. Playing the first snap and earning a 'start' isn't the same as redefining history with a crazy high snap percentage

 

[Shanemansj13]

But even then, in my case, it’s a redraft and I have Mark Andrews. I would rather drop him and pickup a RB

 

[broncosmitty]

LaPorta is in a great situation, longterm.

But as of now, I don’t believe he is starting. Doesn’t mean he won’t get snaps. Or looks, especially with JaMo out for a month and a half.

But he had zero receptions in the preseason. And has yet to play a snap with Goff at QB. Neither has any newcomer in Detroit, since Goff didn’t play in the preseason, just saying.

 

[wilwhite]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha I just asked Bing "which rookie TE started the most games?"

Bing said:

According to the web search results, the tight end who started the most games as a rookie in the 2023 season was Dalton Kincaid of the Buffalo Bills. He started 15 games and caught 54 passes for 789 yards and 8 touchdowns. He was also named the Offensive Rookie of the Year and made the Pro Bowl.​

In case anybody wants to know.

 

[TREFF]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha I just asked Bing "which rookie TE started the most games?"

Bing said:

According to the web search results, the tight end who started the most games as a rookie in the 2023 season was Dalton Kincaid of the Buffalo Bills. He started 15 games and caught 54 passes for 789 yards and 8 touchdowns. He was also named the Offensive Rookie of the Year and made the Pro Bowl.​

In case anybody wants to know.

Wow..does Bing have a DeLorean?

 

[wilwhite]

So forgetting AI and poking around myself, Evan Engram was named the starter in preseason in his rookie year and was the #5 FF TE.

 

[wilwhite]

Wow..does Bing have a DeLorean?

I guess we'll find out, unless the Libyans get him first.

 

[TREFF]

So forgetting AI and poking around myself, Evan Engram was named the starter in preseason in his rookie year and was the #5 FF TE.

#4 by some scoring systems.

But he's the only one, in decades, who was in that kind of territory.

Gronk 500 and 10 and he was a punishing blocker, Kelce was robbed of his rookie year, and 800 and 5 the next 2, wasn't 'great' until year 4, and he's often cited as the gold standard for blocking TE's, Kittle, meh as a rookie, Hock, for these very same Lions we'reyalking about with LaPorta, was a serious disappointment as a rookie, but is now elite.

Quick 5 year history-
2018 5 taken in the first 3 rounds- Hurst, Andrews, Goedart, Geisiki all but Goedart(Ertz) started at least half their teams games, none did anything as a rookie.
2019 EIGHT TE's in rds 1-3, EIGHT!!- many handed 'starting' jobs, zero amounted to anything as rookies
2020 was a major downer, only Cole Kmet could be considered a 'starter' in any way shape or form, and he didn't do much.
2021- the 'great' Kyle Pitts year, only he and Friermouth of note as far as 'starters'..it could be argued that Friermouth was the better asset to have any given week. Pitts was 'relevant', but honestly, if you owned him, by week 8 werent you severely disappointed? You had to start him, becuase you likely used a 4th round pick on him, but he wasnt helping you win.
2022- another down year, once again a top rookie TE is cock blocked by Ertz. Only rookie production of note in the entire class were by backups getting a shot due to injuries who splashed in spurts- Likely and Okonkwu

And 2023, remains to be seen, but the class seems eerily reminiscent of 2018/2019 classes. Loads of talent, maybe someone breaks the mold, I dunno. But not a bet I'm willing to place.

 

[wilwhite]

#4 by some scoring systems.

But he's the only one, in decades, who was in that kind of territory.

Gronk 500 and 10 and he was a punishing blocker, Kelce was robbed of his rookie year, and 800 and 5 the next 2, wasn't 'great' until year 4, and he's often cited as the gold standard for blocking TE's, Kittle, meh as a rookie, Hock, for these very same Lions we'reyalking about with LaPorta, was a serious disappointment as a rookie, but is now elite.

Quick 5 year history-
2018 5 taken in the first 3 rounds- Hurst, Andrews, Goedart, Geisiki all but Goedart(Ertz) started at least half their teams games, none did anything as a rookie.
2019 EIGHT TE's in rds 1-3, EIGHT!!- many handed 'starting' jobs, zero amounted to anything as rookies
2020 was a major downer, only Cole Kmet could be considered a 'starter' in any way shape or form, and he didn't do much.
2021- the 'great' Kyle Pitts year, only he and Friermouth of note as far as 'starters'..it could be argued that Friermouth was the better asset to have any given week. Pitts was 'relevant', but honestly, if you owned him, by week 8 werent you severely disappointed? You had to start him, becuase you likely used a 4th round pick on him, but he wasnt helping you win.
2022- another down year, once again a top rookie TE is cock blocked by Ertz. Only rookie production of note in the entire class were by backups getting a shot due to injuries who splashed in spurts- Likely and Okonkwu

And 2023, remains to be seen, but the class seems eerily reminiscent of 2018/2019 classes. Loads of talent, maybe someone breaks the mold, I dunno. But not a bet I'm willing to place.

My question, though, is what became of TEs who were named starters before Week 1 of their rookie season?

I think those are rare, but it's not an easy thing to search.

 

[TREFF]

My question, though, is what became of TEs who were named starters before Week 1 of their rookie season?

I think those are rare, but it's not an easy thing to search.

Very true, I think you'd have to have intimate details of each teams situation, and one helluva memory...and even then, it's still a somewhat fluid situation. Is being named 'the starter', give you anything but the first snap of the first game of the year? Noah Fant was 'the starter' his 3 years in Denver, snap percentages, 69, 72, 84..considering most 'starters' are at least in the 75-80% or higher range, he was a starter in name only until at least midway through year 2.

Kyle Pitts, obviously named the starter from the second Goodel said his name, has yet to reach %75

 

[eaglesnut]

then I guess we would need to start by defining fantasy relevant... But the point is with football becoming so pass heavy... and with TEs being separated between being a blocking and being a receiving focus... and with 5 New Rookie Starting TEs... believing at least one of them will be a TE1 is not far fetched at all... now guessing which one is another story... but I think it is a safe bet that at least one will be a TE1...

My bet would be on Laporta...

Rookie TEs are little boys and the linemen around them on the field are men. They just can't do it. The younger they are the worse chance they have. How long did it take for Njoku to do anything? And if they're older then they beat up on younger kids in college like hayden hurst and aren't really that talented.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Kinda weird that most of the true studs at the position weren't the highly touted/early draft picks - those first round TEs seem to be just OK or bust vs becoming the next difference maker at the position.

(Just going off the top of my head, didn't actually research 1st rd TEs)

 

[TREFF]

Kinda weird that most of the true studs at the position weren't the highly touted/early draft picks - those first round TEs seem to be just OK or bust vs becoming the next difference maker at the position.

(Just going off the top of my head, didn't actually research 1st rd TEs)

Kelce a 3rd, fifth TE in 2013 (Eifert the only #1, Ertz, Escobar, and V. McDonald) J. Reed also a 3rd that year

Kittle a 5th rounder, in '17..OJ Howard, E. Engram, Njoku all #1's, Everett, Shaheen, J. Smith, M. Robert's and J. Butt all taken before Kittle

Waller was a WR when drafted

Andrews was #3, not even the first TE his own team took...Hurst in the first, Geisiki and Goedart also ahead of him

Hock would be the only active stud, who was also cream of the crop coming in..and it took him 3+ years and a trade to get there

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Fantrax needs to get their shit together, site keeps getting choppy or doesn't load altogether

 

[leftypower]

Fantrax needs to get their shit together, site keeps getting choppy or doesn't load altogether

Yep - this is not the time of yr you want that crap going on. ....