Random FF Thoughts

[TREFF]

If we're speculating on RB, to me the guy to watch is Devon Achane in Miami.
He has 31-year old Mostert, and 27-year old Jeff Wilson ahead of him, not to mention a host of do-nothings as depth.

He's also about a buck o five soaking wet, with a very limited skill set outside of 'he can run REALLY fast'

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I'm more concerned with the whisper of him not actually having an ACL. If true, imagine what he could do if he had one?. But, if it ain't there, he's not gonna tear it again, right?

I'm def hoping you are right about Spears, Titans need as many weapons as they can get. Local buzz is that the new OC that was promoted from within is supposedly bringing a new element to the passing game. Would be fun if that was an explosive change of pace RB that can line up in the slot.

 

[eaglesnut]

I try to steer away from "injury prone" tags on players, as it isn't statistically accurate or predictable, but tearing the same ACL 2x in college feels like an injury waiting to happen in the NFL. Maybe science and medicine have fixed that, but seems scary. Without looking up any data, I feel like we've seen an increase in non-contact injuries over the last 5-10yrs too, but that could just be memory bias.

FRANK GORE

 

[averagejoe]

He's also about a buck o five soaking wet, with a very limited skill set outside of 'he can run REALLY fast'

Well, Miami moved up to get him, that tells me they have a need for him. Whether he can live up to that... we'll see.

For a guy like me who does not watch colllege ball, or care about combine stats... i do watch when teams move up to get guys in the draft. That may be more telling than any film or stats.

 

[TREFF]

Well, Miami moved up to get him, that tells me they have a need for him. Whether he can live up to that... we'll see.

For a guy like me who does not watch colllege ball, or care about combine stats... i do watch when teams move up to get guys in the draft. That may be more telling than any film or stats.

Well it means they believe, beyond that, I dunno.

Denver moved up to take Paxton Lynch
S.F moved up to take Joe Williams
Yer Bears and Trubs...

 

[TREFF]

I'm def hoping you are right about Spears, Titans need as many weapons as they can get. Local buzz is that the new OC that was promoted from within is supposedly bringing a new element to the passing game. Would be fun if that was an explosive change of pace RB that can line up in the slot.

For me, the knee(s) is the only question mark. Dude just oozes 'the next Kamara'...but the knee is a big potential issue

 

[averagejoe]

Denver moved up to take Paxton Lynch
S.F moved up to take Joe Williams
Yer Bears and Trubs...

So they did get a chance to start, right?
Kinda sounds like youre confirming the liklihood of MIA giving him a shot.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

So they did get a chance to start, right?
Kinda sounds like youre confirming the liklihood of MIA giving him a shot.

a couple things... I am one that always believes where they were drafted is the biggest indicator on whether they will play and for how long...

but RBs are such a weird animal in our current football... only the rare ones really get picked early... third round is not early,,, so even though they drafted up for him, third round is not a THEY MUST START player... nor is it a WHEN WE DO START HE WILL HAVE A LONG LEASH player...

With that said, the dolphins, who were recently bought by FOOT, love the speed... they use Tyreek hill as more than just a receiver...

Archane's speed will play, even if he is too small... they will use him until he falls apart... and since he was only a third rounder, and because he is never going to be a 3 down back, their long-term need for him is not high.. I really do expect him to be used a lot... maybe take some of the gimmicks away from Hill, to protect him more!!!

 

[Bandit]

I try to steer away from "injury prone" tags on players, as it isn't statistically accurate or predictable, but tearing the same ACL 2x in college feels like an injury waiting to happen in the NFL. Maybe science and medicine have fixed that, but seems scary. Without looking up any data, I feel like we've seen an increase in non-contact injuries over the last 5-10yrs too, but that could just be memory bias.

Every time I see something like this it just makes me think of Frank Gore. Granted he is clearly the ultimate exception to this rule, but he tore his ACL twice at Miami in college and there was that same talk when he came to the NFL and he ended up being possibly the most durable running back in NFL history setting the record for games at running back.

 

[TREFF]

Every time I see something like this it just makes me think of Frank Gore. Granted he is clearly the ultimate exception to this rule, but he tore his ACL twice at Miami in college and there was that same talk when he came to the NFL and he ended up being possibly the most durable running back in NFL history setting the record for games at running back.

Wasn't his second one like 3 different ligaments in his knee? Like everything just shredded??

 

[averagejoe]

But a guy like Frank Gore is the "exception" and not the "rule."

 

[MilkSpiller22]

But a guy like Frank Gore is the "exception" and not the "rule."

or there really is no rule.. players fail more than succeed... most fail... of course there will be players from any statistical player pool that will succeed... problem is that we create the narratives...

and as fantasy owners, we will create any reason to our decisions... so the real question is do we put the players in the right basket??


this is a baseball example for me.... chris Sale's first season as a redsox pitcher, i had him as a big fade... the whole lefty in fenway, the velocity was decining, the whatever... that i ignored all the reasons to take him... and there were obvious ones... and of course i was wrong, and he had a CY type season

 

[wilwhite]

or there really is no rule.. players fail more than succeed... most fail... of course there will be players from any statistical player pool that will succeed... problem is that we create the narratives...

and as fantasy owners, we will create any reason to our decisions... so the real question is do we put the players in the right basket??

This is true, but you should be able to compare "injury-risk" rookies to the rest and see if there's a difference in the success rate.

 

[Clayton]

He's also about a buck o five soaking wet, with a very limited skill set outside of 'he can run REALLY fast'

Its a bit problematic in that Achane's skillset is 'he can run REALLY fast' and 'he tries to run through defenders'

I could see him having a really solid rookie year but I could see him having a short shelf life

 

[MilkSpiller22]

This is true, but you should be able to compare "injury-risk" rookies to the rest and see if there's a difference in the success rate.

we all do what we want as fantasy owners... and absolutely, injury prone seems to be a good way to sort... but generally we define injury prone as a player who RECENTLY had a major injury... do we know everyone's medical records?? it is such an inexact science... but if it works for you however you sort, you will do it, and think it is accurate... thats what is so crazy about fantasy, we all think we are smart, when in fact we know very little...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Its a bit problematic in that Achane's skillset is 'he can run REALLY fast' and 'he tries to run through defenders'

I could see him having a really solid rookie year but I could see him having a short shelf life

lol... i just had a post about injury prone players... and i am going to post what i am posting now...

Archane is all about speed.... so he is will only last as long as his speed does... he could be one injury away from being out of football(more so than any other)

 

[wilwhite]

when in fact we know very little...

This is true in spades, especially for setting your starters. We have no idea how the OC is tweaking his approach for the next game, or how a guy is feeling, or (usually) if he's in the doghouse, or how the guy behind him is doing in practice.

Basically we have like 60% of the relevant information available to us, and a perfect analysis of that 60% guarantees nothing.

 

[averagejoe]

Archane is all about speed.... so he is will only last as long as his speed does...

As opposed to all the slow RB who still are on NFL rosters.

 

[averagejoe]

Basically we have like 60% of the relevant information available to us, and a perfect analysis of that 60% guarantees nothing.

Been preaching something similar since the old CBS days.... even the best "experts" can only boast about hitting on less than 60% of their rankings.

 

[TREFF]

As opposed to all the slow RB who still are on NFL rosters.

Gus?