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Random FF Thoughts

Chef99

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Sorry, missed this somehow while I was sitting in the dentist’s chair.

I don’t know if that stat was alltime or this century or this decade. Only know it showed the YPC difference between a first rounder and your average guy was very minimal.

I do know we now are at 53 RBs in the first this century. And for every Josh Jacobs that eventually leads the league in rushing, there is a Trung Candidate or Jahvid Best.

Here’s that list of names. 1st-round running backs - Fantasy Index

A quarterback is more valuable than any other position in sports. I don’t think Tom Brady being the worlds greatest winner as a sixth rounder changes the value of getting one in the draft. We’ve never seen QB valued higher than it was this draft.
Remember Ryan Mathews?

Cadillac Williams?

David Wilson?
 

broncosmitty

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Remember Ryan Mathews?

Cadillac Williams?

David Wilson?
Oh yeah.

And TJ Duckett, Kevin Jones and Donald Brown.

Shortest shelf life for sure.

Just looking at the recent years of 1st rounders, it’s only Sony Michel and CEH they’ve won more than one playoff game with the team that drafted them.
 

TREFF

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Sorry, missed this somehow while I was sitting in the dentist’s chair.

I don’t know if that stat was alltime or this century or this decade. Only know it showed the YPC difference between a first rounder and your average guy was very minimal.

I do know we now are at 53 RBs in the first this century. And for every Josh Jacobs that eventually leads the league in rushing, there is a Trung Candidate or Jahvid Best.

Here’s that list of names. 1st-round running backs - Fantasy Index

A quarterback is more valuable than any other position in sports. I don’t think Tom Brady being the worlds greatest winner as a sixth rounder changes the value of getting one in the draft. We’ve never seen QB valued higher than it was this draft.
Well sure for every AP, Jacobs, Zeke, Barkley Cmac, there a bust or two maybe even 3. But for every Kamara, every Pacheco, every Carson, every TD, every Preist Holmes, there are a hundred names that no one will ever remember.

It's not necessarily that a first rounder will be better than a later choice, it's that the odds of finding a a great one, or even a very good one, drastically decrease every round. And that's where the Brady comparison comes in. He was a one in a million find late in the draft, not proof that waiting is a good plan, the classic, exception that proves the rule. Those later round gems at RB who have better careers than the #1's, aren't proof that the #1 isn't worth the pick, they're exceptions. the hundred other RB's drafted later, signing as UDFA ...they're the proof

And once you've determined just how much that percentage drops, round by round, then you take a look at the team you wanna build, do you need a strong run game?, is your QB not a Mahommes or Allen, or a Manning or a Brees? And if you determine that yes, you need a strong run game to support a middling QB, and you want that %75 hit rate, not a 50% hit rate, or lower and lower the later you wait.. than a #1 pick makes sense.
 

TREFF

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Remember Ryan Mathews?

Cadillac Williams?

David Wilson?

Oh yeah.

And TJ Duckett, Kevin Jones and Donald Brown.

Shortest shelf life for sure.

Just looking at the recent years of 1st rounders, it’s only Sony Michel and CEH they’ve won more than one playoff game with the team that drafted them.
Haha, and thats what I mean..everyone remembers those dudes....and everyone remembers those Preist Holmes and TD's, but...name any of the hundreds and hundreds of RB's where teams waited and they never amounted to sqwat
 

SteelersPride

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Well sure for every AP, Jacobs, Zeke, Barkley Cmac, there a bust or two maybe even 3. But for every Kamara, every Pacheco, every Carson, every TD, every Preist Holmes, there are a hundred names that no one will ever remember.

It's not necessarily that a first rounder will be better than a later choice, it's that the odds of finding a a great one, or even a very good one, drastically decrease every round. And that's where the Brady comparison comes in. He was a one in a million find late in the draft, not proof that waiting is a good plan, the classic, exception that proves the rule. Those later round gems at RB who have better careers than the #1's, aren't proof that the #1 isn't worth the pick, they're exceptions. the hundred other RB's drafted later, signing as UDFA ...they're the proof

And once you've determined just how much that percentage drops, round by round, then you take a look at the team you wanna build, do you need a strong run game?, is your QB not a Mahommes or Allen, or a Manning or a Brees? And if you determine that yes, you need a strong run game to support a middling QB, and you want that %75 hit rate, not a 50% hit rate, or lower and lower the later you wait.. than a #1 pick makes sense.
Really really good post. Really made me think about running back drafting.
 

MilkSpiller22

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Well sure for every AP, Jacobs, Zeke, Barkley Cmac, there a bust or two maybe even 3. But for every Kamara, every Pacheco, every Carson, every TD, every Preist Holmes, there are a hundred names that no one will ever remember.

It's not necessarily that a first rounder will be better than a later choice, it's that the odds of finding a a great one, or even a very good one, drastically decrease every round. And that's where the Brady comparison comes in. He was a one in a million find late in the draft, not proof that waiting is a good plan, the classic, exception that proves the rule. Those later round gems at RB who have better careers than the #1's, aren't proof that the #1 isn't worth the pick, they're exceptions. the hundred other RB's drafted later, signing as UDFA ...they're the proof

And once you've determined just how much that percentage drops, round by round, then you take a look at the team you wanna build, do you need a strong run game?, is your QB not a Mahommes or Allen, or a Manning or a Brees? And if you determine that yes, you need a strong run game to support a middling QB, and you want that %75 hit rate, not a 50% hit rate, or lower and lower the later you wait.. than a #1 pick makes sense.


that's why on draft day, I don't understand why bad teams, don't just load on offensive line until they figure out the rest of their offense... this whole balanced team BS is why teams fail for so long IMO...
 

broncosmitty

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Well sure for every AP, Jacobs, Zeke, Barkley Cmac, there a bust or two maybe even 3. But for every Kamara, every Pacheco, every Carson, every TD, every Preist Holmes, there are a hundred names that no one will ever remember.

It's not necessarily that a first rounder will be better than a later choice, it's that the odds of finding a a great one, or even a very good one, drastically decrease every round. And that's where the Brady comparison comes in. He was a one in a million find late in the draft, not proof that waiting is a good plan, the classic, exception that proves the rule. Those later round gems at RB who have better careers than the #1's, aren't proof that the #1 isn't worth the pick, they're exceptions. the hundred other RB's drafted later, signing as UDFA ...they're the proof

And once you've determined just how much that percentage drops, round by round, then you take a look at the team you wanna build, do you need a strong run game?, is your QB not a Mahommes or Allen, or a Manning or a Brees? And if you determine that yes, you need a strong run game to support a middling QB, and you want that %75 hit rate, not a 50% hit rate, or lower and lower the later you wait.. than a #1 pick makes sense.
Even the five guys you named as the opposite of busts didn’t help the team that drafted them win a title. Zeke is the only one who won more than one game in the playoffs with the team who drafted him.

Emmitt Smith is a true unicorn when it comes to first round RB, who panned out and won with the team who took him. Tony Dorsett being another.
 

broncosmitty

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that's why on draft day, I don't understand why bad teams, don't just load on offensive line until they figure out the rest of their offense... this whole balanced team BS is why teams fail for so long IMO...
Several guys at six who Detroit could’ve plugged in at RG and created the best line the league. (Skoronski and Johnson being the two I would’ve loved to see)

And wouldn’t be worried about them keeping them for a second contract.
 

MilkSpiller22

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Several guys at six who Detroit could’ve plugged in at RG and created the best line the league. (Skoronski and Johnson being the two I would’ve loved to see)

And wouldn’t be worried about them keeping them for a second contract.

there had to be more to the Gibbs pick... they were getting rid of Swift no matter what... but why?? but once they were committed to getting rid of Swift, it is not like Gibbs was a bad pick... so again, there had to be more to it... maybe Swift stole someone's bike... I know if he stole my bike I would want to trade him...
 

TREFF

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Even the five guys you named as the opposite of busts didn’t help the team that drafted them win a title. Zeke is the only one who won more than one game in the playoffs with the team who drafted him.

Emmitt Smith is a true unicorn when it comes to first round RB, who panned out and won with the team who took him. Tony Dorsett being another.
Well I don't consider winning a super bowl the only measure of success. The penultimate measure I suppose, but not the only...especially when my entire outlook, at least here on the Hoop, is viewed through the fantasy lense. Maybe the RB isn't the missing link to a SB title. There's not much evidence to suggest that it is. Outside of the QB, no one player ever is. Tyreek Hill didn't turn the Dolphins into Champs, and the Cheifs won without him, as an example. But a RB might be the difference between a horrid season, where ticket sales lag, free agents can't wait to leave, the prime time TV schedule flexes you to Sunday afternoon for the next 2 seasons, etc.,...and respectability, which generates revenue, keeps people talking, makes your franchise relevant to the rest of the league.
Would anyone give a second thought to the Titans being a legit NFL team, if Derrick Henry wasn't there? Granted, he was a 2nd rounder, however, a definitive example of a RB being the difference on a team. They've been legit playoff contenders for 6 years, and there's no reason other than Henry. Last year was the first year they had a losing record since they drafted him. He even revived the QB's career. To me, that's a RB success story, and evidence that the position is still very relevant, SB title or no
 

broncosmitty

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there had to be more to the Gibbs pick... they were getting rid of Swift no matter what... but why?? but once they were committed to getting rid of Swift, it is not like Gibbs was a bad pick... so again, there had to be more to it... maybe Swift stole someone's bike... I know if he stole my bike I would want to trade him...
I know Duce Staley didn’t like him. (He bounces outside by nature) But Duce Staley must not have liked coaching in Detroit anyway, since he took a demotion to go to Carolina.

Swift was also second on the team in receptions. For the second season in a row.

Last season was prolly the most productive season from a Lions backfield since Barry retired. And they moved on from both guys. At the cost of a high draft choice and a lot of money. Also moving on, mid season from their non bust 1st round TE raised questions.

They could easily regress in rushing yards, TDs, YPC etc this year. I’d assumed they’d upgraded talent wise by signing Monty. But I definitely didn’t assume he’d match Williams numbers from last year. They got a similar upgrade in talent from Swift to Gibbs most likely. If Gibbs doesn’t average less per carry I’d be shocked.
 

broncosmitty

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Well I don't consider winning a super bowl the only measure of success. The penultimate measure I suppose, but not the only...especially when my entire outlook, at least here on the Hoop, is viewed through the fantasy lense. Maybe the RB isn't the missing link to a SB title. There's not much evidence to suggest that it is. Outside of the QB, no one player ever is. Tyreek Hill didn't turn the Dolphins into Champs, and the Cheifs won without him, as an example. But a RB might be the difference between a horrid season, where ticket sales lag, free agents can't wait to leave, the prime time TV schedule flexes you to Sunday afternoon for the next 2 seasons, etc.,...and respectability, which generates revenue, keeps people talking, makes your franchise relevant to the rest of the league.
Would anyone give a second thought to the Titans being a legit NFL team, if Derrick Henry wasn't there? Granted, he was a 2nd rounder, however, a definitive example of a RB being the difference on a team. They've been legit playoff contenders for 6 years, and there's no reason other than Henry. Last year was the first year they had a losing record since they drafted him. He even revived the QB's career. To me, that's a RB success story, and evidence that the position is still very relevant, SB title or no
Henry was the 5th guy they drafted in 2016.

The first one was a guy to block for him.
 

MilkSpiller22

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I know Duce Staley didn’t like him. (He bounces outside by nature) But Duce Staley must not have liked coaching in Detroit anyway, since he took a demotion to go to Carolina.

Swift was also second on the team in receptions. For the second season in a row.

Last season was prolly the most productive season from a Lions backfield since Barry retired. And they moved on from both guys. At the cost of a high draft choice and a lot of money. Also moving on, mid season from their non bust 1st round TE raised questions.

They could easily regress in rushing yards, TDs, YPC etc this year. I’d assumed they’d upgraded talent wise by signing Monty. But I definitely didn’t assume he’d match Williams numbers from last year. They got a similar upgrade in talent from Swift to Gibbs most likely. If Gibbs doesn’t average less per carry I’d be shocked.


I actually agree with you 100%... the reason why their offense was so good last season was because of their offensive line anyways... it allowed for their running game to play as well as it did, and gave Goff his best season of his career... chances are that the whole offense regresses, because they didn't do much to improve the offensive line, and they all got one year older.. never a good thing in football... and with that gambling thing, they lost lots of receiver depth...

I do see Gibbs catching more balls than Swift did and he is faster, so I am sure that the lions will build plays around his speed... but even with that, they lost so much offense, that it is hard to believe that they can be better...

the good news is that they play in a bad division, in an even worse conference... so they can easily win that division... but even if they make the playoffs, they look like a first round loser...





I
 

broncosmitty

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I actually agree with you 100%... the reason why their offense was so good last season was because of their offensive line anyways... it allowed for their running game to play as well as it did, and gave Goff his best season of his career... chances are that the whole offense regresses, because they didn't do much to improve the offensive line, and they all got one year older.. never a good thing in football... and with that gambling thing, they lost lots of receiver depth...

I do see Gibbs catching more balls than Swift did and he is faster, so I am sure that the lions will build plays around his speed... but even with that, they lost so much offense, that it is hard to believe that they can be better...

the good news is that they play in a bad division, in an even worse conference... so they can easily win that division... but even if they make the playoffs, they look like a first round loser...





I
They did add some depth to the line when they brought Glasgow back. But they didn’t improve it.

Gibbs should get his share of targets. Especially with no JaMo early. Be interesting to see how much of his snaps are out wide.

That good news of the bad division comes with an other side to the coin. They went 5-1 in that division and didn’t make the playoffs last year. Lol. The offense can regress and they make the playoffs so long as the defense is just mediocre. That’s how bad it was. But I’m not banking on Goff going months without a pick again either.

All this real football talk is coming from
my assumption Montgomery leads the team in carries. And maybe touches. He’s going to catch more balls than the guy he replaced too.
 

Stakesarehigh

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I know Duce Staley didn’t like him. (He bounces outside by nature) But Duce Staley must not have liked coaching in Detroit anyway, since he took a demotion to go to Carolina.

Swift was also second on the team in receptions. For the second season in a row.

Last season was prolly the most productive season from a Lions backfield since Barry retired. And they moved on from both guys. At the cost of a high draft choice and a lot of money. Also moving on, mid season from their non bust 1st round TE raised questions.

They could easily regress in rushing yards, TDs, YPC etc this year. I’d assumed they’d upgraded talent wise by signing Monty. But I definitely didn’t assume he’d match Williams numbers from last year. They got a similar upgrade in talent from Swift to Gibbs most likely. If Gibbs doesn’t average less per carry I’d be shocked.

Not running it back with the same group made no sense

And Williams was a big part of their identity
 

SmokingMonkey

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I know Duce Staley didn’t like him. (He bounces outside by nature) But Duce Staley must not have liked coaching in Detroit anyway, since he took a demotion to go to Carolina.

Not relevant to the RB discussion, but DET let Duce out of his contract so he could work for Panthers near their hometown and help take care of a sick parent.

Total class from all sides to facilitate that for Staley
 

eaglesnut

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Not relevant to the RB discussion, but DET let Duce out of his contract so he could work for Panthers near their hometown and help take care of a sick parent.

Total class from all sides to facilitate that for Staley
Duce went to South Carolina and is from there.
 

TREFF

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Henry was the 5th guy they drafted in 2016.

The first one was a guy to block for him.
Well I'll give ya that one all day long..the lines, imho, are the places to start...even over QB..nobody is doing doodoo on offense if the line sucks, and you aren't stopping anyone defensively if the line sucks
 

Chef99

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Can anyone explain why the Bills seem to dislike Dawson Knox so much?

Is it that he doesn't fit into the offensive scheme, or maybe Josh Allen just doesn't like him?
 

MilkSpiller22

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Can anyone explain why the Bills seem to dislike Dawson Knox so much?

Is it that he doesn't fit into the offensive scheme, or maybe Josh Allen just doesn't like him?

Im not convinced the Kinkaid pick was about him at all... I think they want to go the 2 TE set, to open up the run game for themselves... and all I have heard about dalton is that he is more like a receiver anyway...
 
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