QB options for next year

[flyerhawk]

Probably so. I think the public perception of their draft position will be impacted maybe more so than what actual NFL teams rate them. If an NFL team thinks Penix is a 2nd round talent right now but then moves him into the top half of round 1 because of strong play in these next 1 or 2 games, then I think they have a problem with their ranking system.

Not sure I agree with you here.

This CFP playoff is a huge game on the biggest stage in college football. The entire country is watching. Performing well in that sort of game can vault someone up the draft board.

Stroud's performance against Georgia last year almost certainly moved him up to ultimately get taken #2. Most college games offer limited value at evaluating a player because of the wildly disparate talent levels across teams and even across positions. Which is why bowl games and all star games like the Senior Bowl get a lot of attention from scouts.

 

[JMR]

Not sure I agree with you here.

This CFP playoff is a huge game on the biggest stage in college football. The entire country is watching. Performing well in that sort of game can vault someone up the draft board.

Stroud's performance against Georgia last year almost certainly moved him up to ultimately get taken #2. Most college games offer limited value at evaluating a player because of the wildly disparate talent levels across teams and even across positions. Which is why bowl games and all star games like the Senior Bowl get a lot of attention from scouts.

I am not saying it won't help their draft stock. I just don't think they would go from now being a 2nd rounder to like the top 15. I just doubt NFL teams fluctuate players that much based on 1 game. But maybe I'm wrong. I would love to see an actual NFL team's board right now and compare it to after the playoffs are over or even after the combine to see how much things really move and when. Michael Penix has played 2 full seasons at UW up to this point. I have to think most NFL teams have the data on what he can do as player at the college level. Stroud certainly helped himself in the playoffs last year, but I don't think he moved up to 1.2 from the 2nd round. He was already very highly regarded.

 

[Tahuyaman]

I'll take the under, but I guess it depends on what you mean by interested.

I think 10 teams would try to get him if the Broncos release him.

 

[Tahuyaman]

I would not be upset if Seattle fretted Penix.

 

[MrS]

I am not saying it won't help their draft stock. I just don't think they would go from now being a 2nd rounder to like the top 15. I just doubt NFL teams fluctuate players that much based on 1 game. But maybe I'm wrong. I would love to see an actual NFL team's board right now and compare it to after the playoffs are over or even after the combine to see how much things really move and when. Michael Penix has played 2 full seasons at UW up to this point. I have to think most NFL teams have the data on what he can do as player at the college level. Stroud certainly helped himself in the playoffs last year, but I don't think he moved up to 1.2 from the 2nd round. He was already very highly regarded.

remember joey harrington? dude lit up the rosebowl and ended up going #3 overall.

 

[JMR]

remember joey harrington? dude lit up the rosebowl and ended up going #3 overall.

Yes, I remember him. But where was he on actual NFL draft boards before the Rose Bowl? We don't know and probably will never know. My point is I just don't think players massively jump based on a bowl game performance on boards controlled by people who will actually make draft picks. Joey Harrington going #3 overall (which wasn't much of a surprise) doesn't prove or disprove what I am saying.

 

[MrS]

Yes, I remember him. But where was he on actual NFL draft boards before the Rose Bowl? We don't know and probably will never know. My point is I just don't think players massively jump based on a bowl game performance on boards controlled by people who will actually make draft picks. Joey Harrington going #3 overall (which wasn't much of a surprise) doesn't prove or disprove what I am saying.

if he didnt light up the rosebowl, theres zero chance he goes #3 overall. he had a noodle arm, he wasnt particularly athletic, but teams do dumb things when it comes to QBs especially if they do well on big stages.

if the huskies beat texas and penix throws 4 TDs and they score 40+ points, his stock is going to climb. if they somehow win the national championship, his stock is going to go through the roof.

 

[JMR]

if he didnt light up the rosebowl, theres zero chance he goes #3 overall. he had a noodle arm, he wasnt particularly athletic, but teams do dumb things when it comes to QBs especially if they do well on big stages.

This is pure speculation though. Like I said, my point is about where he was on draft boards before the Rose Bowl vs after, and we will never know that. I am NOT saying amazing bowl performance doesn't matter. My point is that I don't believe NFL teams move someone from the 2nd round to the top 10 (or in Harrington's case 1.3 or Stroud's 1.2) based on 1 good game. Harrington was absolutely a top prospect prior to the Rose Bowl. He didn't jump up a round and a half from 1 game. But if teams actually do that, then maybe that explains why there are so many 1st round QB busts.

if the huskies beat texas and penix throws 4 TDs and they score 40+ points, his stock is going to climb.

I agree and never said otherwise.

if they somehow win the national championship, his stock is going to go through the roof.

What does "through the roof" mean? Do you think NFL teams view him as a 2nd round talent right now or closer to top 15 overall?

 

[flyerhawk]

I am not saying it won't help their draft stock. I just don't think they would go from now being a 2nd rounder to like the top 15. I just doubt NFL teams fluctuate players that much based on 1 game. But maybe I'm wrong. I would love to see an actual NFL team's board right now and compare it to after the playoffs are over or even after the combine to see how much things really move and when. Michael Penix has played 2 full seasons at UW up to this point. I have to think most NFL teams have the data on what he can do as player at the college level. Stroud certainly helped himself in the playoffs last year, but I don't think he moved up to 1.2 from the 2nd round. He was already very highly regarded.

Of course it won't help that much. And, to be honest, I think Penix is more of a known entity. If we assume he's an early 2nd right now, a great playoff could get him moved up to the late teens potentially.

McCarthy is more of a wildcard because he hasn't been asked to do that much this year. But he probably will against Bama. He could also choose to stay at UM for another season.

 

[JMR]

Of course it won't help that much. And, to be honest, I think Penix is more of a known entity. If we assume he's an early 2nd right now, a great playoff could get him moved up to the late teens potentially.

Yeah, that's more or less how I see it. My comment on this started because if Penix is a top 15 pick right now on someone's mock, that doesn't match up with where Kiper has him ranked as the 5th best QB prospect (which probably means no earlier than the 2nd round if he's accurate). The vast difference in those 2 opinions of the player jumped out to me. I still argue that the perception of outsiders (e.g. sports journalists who publish mock drafts) will be more impacted by a strong playoff performance than the actual NFL team boards, and I realize that is is a total speculative opinion unless we can get our hands on genuine NFL draft boards and compare what they look like right now to what they look like in 2 weeks.

As far as Penix specifically, I disagree with Kiper's ranking. I think Penix is probably QB3 and may already be a mid to late first round pick. I think an NFL team will make a huge mistake to take Jayden Daniels over him.

 

[Anointed One]

Bowl games can either help or hurt a player prior to the draft... I remember Ridder was a guy in 2022 who was projected to be 1st/2nd round pick during the season... He did have a few ?'s heading into the Alabama game... After his poor showing in the Alabama game "Goodyear Bowl", he did drop a bit and went in the 3rd round...

 

[MrS]

This is pure speculation though. Like I said, my point is about where he was on draft boards before the Rose Bowl vs after, and we will never know that. I am NOT saying amazing bowl performance doesn't matter. My point is that I don't believe NFL teams move someone from the 2nd round to the top 10 (or in Harrington's case 1.3 or Stroud's 1.2) based on 1 good game. Harrington was absolutely a top prospect prior to the Rose Bowl. He didn't jump up a round and a half from 1 game. But if teams actually do that, then maybe that explains why there are so many 1st round QB busts.

im basing it on my own memories of the time. the rose bowl absolutely propelled him bigly.

I agree and never said otherwise.



What does "through the roof" mean? Do you think NFL teams view him as a 2nd round talent right now or closer to top 15 overall?

based on mocks and "expert" rankings, penix is probably seen as a mid 2nd round talent. he has a terrible injury history, he is on the older side, he isnt athletic (probably due to his injuries) and his accuracy can be erratic at times.

he can dispel most of that with a huge game on monday, and if he does minnesota is probably his ceiling but he might go as high as the raiders

 

[JMR]

Bowl games can either help or hurt a player prior to the draft...

We are in agreement on that. One thing that seems to be ringing more true this year than ever is the upper crust prospects think it can hurt a lot more than help. Most of that is about risk of injury I suppose, buy holy cow it seems every bowl game I turn on has tons of regular starters sitting out. In the Georgia/FSU game, the announcer just said 5 starters from FSU's front 7 have opted out.

I remember Ridder was a guy in 2022 who was projected to be 1st/2nd round pick during the season... He did have a few ?'s heading into the Alabama game... After his poor showing in the Alabama game "Goodyear Bowl", he did drop a bit and went in the 3rd round...

Mock draft projection vs actual NFL draft. How do we know NFL teams didn't already have him as a 3rd round pick before facing Alabama? He ended up going 74th overall, 2nd QB off the board in a pretty ho-hum QB class. I really doubt he was penalized much by being the QB of a team totally overmatched in the CFP. Most mocks end up being pretty inaccurate overall. Max Duggan played his ass off last year to include a huge upset win over Michigan in the CFP and still was a 7th rounder and final QB drafted.

 

[flyerhawk]

Yeah, that's more or less how I see it. My comment on this started because if Penix is a top 15 pick right now on someone's mock, that doesn't match up with where Kiper has him ranked as the 5th best QB prospect (which probably means no earlier than the 2nd round if he's accurate). The vast difference in those 2 opinions of the player jumped out to me. I still argue that the perception of outsiders (e.g. sports journalists who publish mock drafts) will be more impacted by a strong playoff performance than the actual NFL team boards, and I realize that is is a total speculative opinion unless we can get our hands on genuine NFL draft boards and compare what they look like right now to what they look like in 2 weeks.

As far as Penix specifically, I disagree with Kiper's ranking. I think Penix is probably QB3 and may already be a mid to late first round pick. I think an NFL team will make a huge mistake to take Jayden Daniels over him.

I would be pretty surprised to see Penix taken 3rd. Too many question marks.

 

[JMR]

im basing it on my own memories of the time. the rose bowl absolutely propelled him bigly.

It was actually the Fiesta Bowl, but he did have a good game. In fact, he had a good season overall. Heisman finalist. Pac10 offensive player of the year. First team All-American.

based on mocks and "expert" rankings, penix is probably seen as a mid 2nd round talent. he has a terrible injury history, he is on the older side, he isnt athletic (probably due to his injuries) and his accuracy can be erratic at times.


he can dispel most of that with a huge game on monday, and if he does minnesota is probably his ceiling but he might go as high as the raiders

If NFL teams are truly skiddish about his age and injury history, does he really have a chance to play himself from the middle of the 2nd round to the middle of the 1st with how he plays on Monday? He can't get younger, less injured, or even more athletic by anything he does on Monday. If he is drafted in the middle of round 1, I think that's already where NFL teams see him. He's played a lot of football the past 2 seasons, not many unknowns to answer.

 

[JMR]

I would be pretty surprised to see Penix taken 3rd. Too many question marks.

So then that really puts a limit on how much he can improve his stock on Monday, no?

 

[flyerhawk]

So then that really puts a limit on how much he can improve his stock on Monday, no?

Maybe. There are a lot of things we don't know yet.

How many teams will want to draft a QB early? If it's 3 then, Penix isn't likely to be a 1st rounder and could even fall to the 3rd.

Also, will McCarthy going to declare? He may or may not be rated above Penix on most team boards.

Looks like Sanders is going stick around in Colorado for another year so that's one other player not to worry about.

But ultimately it will come down to how many teams are going to go for a QB. NE, WTFs, Bears, and Falcons all seem pretty likely to. Then you have have teams like the Hawks, Bucs, Saints, and Steelers who could all make a move for a QB early.

 

[JMR]

Maybe. There are a lot of things we don't know yet.

How many teams will want to draft a QB early? If it's 3 then, Penix isn't likely to be a 1st rounder and could even fall to the 3rd.

Also, will McCarthy going to declare? He may or may not be rated above Penix on most team boards.

Looks like Sanders is going stick around in Colorado for another year so that's one other player not to worry about.

But ultimately it will come down to how many teams are going to go for a QB. NE, WTFs, Bears, and Falcons all seem pretty likely to. Then you have have teams like the Hawks, Bucs, Saints, and Steelers who could all make a move for a QB early.

Yeah, fair. Not tons of draft classes have 4 QBs go in the 1st round, but it does happen from time to time. Lots of variables, as you say.

Genuinely curious: what are the question marks you have with Penix? I know he has an injury history, but he's been out there every game for both years at UW. He isn't the athlete that Caleb Williams is, but he can move around the pocket pretty well and hoof it for a 1st down when needed, a la Aaron Rodgers. No questions at all about arm strength or overall arm talent.

 

[JMR]

I think 10 teams would try to get him if the Broncos release him.

Yeah, I am still taking the under. There are definitely about that many teams that could use a QB upgrade, but there won't be that many pursuing RW for a variety of reasons. A few teams who need a QB won't even consider him due to age, money, and falling stock from the last 2 seasons in Denver. A few others may kick the tires for due diligence and then bow out once the bidding starts. Some QB-needy teams also have very high draft position and will elect to go that route for their next QB. In the end, probably only a couple serious suitors.

Just for grins, what are your 10 teams?

 

[Tahuyaman]

Yeah, I am still taking the under. There are definitely about that many teams that could use a QB upgrade, but there won't be that many pursuing RW for a variety of reasons. A few teams who need a QB won't even consider him due to age, money, and falling stock from the last 2 seasons in Denver. A few others may kick the tires for due diligence and then bow out once the bidding starts. Some QB-needy teams also have very high draft position and will elect to go that route for their next QB. In the end, probably only a couple serious suitors.

Just for grins, what are your 10 teams?

Some won’t because they can’t because of salary cap issues.

It’s rare to have a rookie QB come in and be able to be a solid starter. You need to get the right guy and immediately get him in the right system and don’t give them too much room early. He also needs to be surrounded with excellent players.

Atlanta, NY Giants, NE, Tennessee, New Orleans, Raiders, Minnesota, Chicago, Carolina, Pittsburg.

They could all use him. Some of those teams have a young guy who’s not working out and may benefit sitting behind Wilson for a few seasons.