Projecting: Leonys Martin

[jta4437]

Batting Average: .266
OBP %: .321
SLG %: .421
HR: 11
R: 74
2B: 24
3B: 5
RBI: 57
SB: 39
WAR: 3.2

 

[terpsfball09]

I'm not gonna guess specifics, but I just don't think he's gonna have a great year. I think Profar will do much better, offensively

 

[fordman84]

Batting Average: .266
OBP %: .321
SLG %: .421
HR: 11
R: 74
2B: 24
3B: 5
RBI: 57
SB: 39
WAR: 3.2

I think the HR's are a bit high, I see him as a single digit HR guy but maybe with a few more doubles. Depending on where he hits, his runs could be higher. But I think he will end up later in the order, after the big bats of Prince and Beltre. If he bats 2nd, then he should score 100 runs.

 

[jta4437]

I think the HR's are a bit high, I see him as a single digit HR guy but maybe with a few more doubles. Depending on where he hits, his runs could be higher. But I think he will end up later in the order, after the big bats of Prince and Beltre. If he bats 2nd, then he should score 100 runs.

He had 8 last year, so I don't see 11 as a big jump considering he'll probably play more and hopefully improve with an extra year's experience

 

[romeo212000]

I'm not gonna guess specifics, but I just don't think he's gonna have a great year. I think Profar will do much better, offensively

Thanks for your contribution to this thread.

 

[terpsfball09]

Titled "Projecting: Leonys Martin" and giving my thoughts on how he'll do seems like a fine contribution.... just because I don't wanna go through the time of putting numbers down doesn't change my overall opinion on how I think he'll do

 

[jta4437]

Titled "Projecting: Leonys Martin" and giving my thoughts on how he'll do seems like a fine contribution.... just because I don't wanna go through the time of putting numbers down doesn't change my overall opinion on how I think he'll do

That was kind of the purpose of the thread... but whatever

 

[Bmurph]

Leonys Martin CF

BA .269
OBP% .319
SLG% .399
HR 10
Runs 73
2B 25
3B 8
RBI 60
SB 40
WAR 3.6

 

[Windingmywatch]

That was kind of the purpose of the thread... but whatever

jta ... am sorta with Terps on this. I am always amazed with the specificity of some posters here on projections. I can't do that. I have no idea.

I don't discount that you could be spot on with everyone of your projections ... but what I would love to hear is how you came up with each of them. I haven't looked at Zips projections and don't think they get to the detail you have invested in.

All I know is that I can't do it ...

 

[jta4437]

jta ... am sorta with Terps on this. I am always amazed with the specificity of some posters here on projections. I can't do that. I have no idea.

I don't discount that you could be spot on with everyone of your projections ... but what I would love to hear is how you came up with each of them. I haven't looked at Zips projections and don't think they get to the detail you have invested in.

All I know is that I can't do it ...

Then seriously, don't post, I stated that pretty specifically in the Profar Post

Didn't think I had to keep posting that, use your common sense

 

[jta4437]

Disclaimer: If you find such exercises pointless, then don't post, its not that hard people

I find that the most asinine thing ever, you don't see the purpose of a thread and then post in said thread b/c you don't see the point

If you're not going to play along then post elsewhere, once again its not that hard

/Rant Over

 

[RevSader]

Disclaimer: If you find such exercises pointless, then don't post, its not that hard people

I find that the most asinine thing ever, you don't see the purpose of a thread and then post in said thread b/c you don't see the point

If you're not going to play along then post elsewhere, once again its not that hard

/Rant Over

I can find them pointless but still participate for lack of a better way to spend mine time. I like baseball too much to not want to do these things even if I know they don't really matter.

 

[jta4437]

I can find them pointless but still participate for lack of a better way to spend mine time. I like baseball too much to not want to do these things even if I know they don't really matter.

My point exactly, it takes a certain level of boredom to resort to this to pass the time

But I'll be sure to include the disclaimer going forward

 

[Windingmywatch]

Disclaimer: If you find such exercises pointless, then don't post, its not that hard people

I find that the most asinine thing ever, you don't see the purpose of a thread and then post in said thread b/c you don't see the point

If you're not going to play along then post elsewhere, once again its not that hard

/Rant Over

I wouldn't have commented if you hadn't pinged Terps first ... I posted in response to that post ... not your original one. Your critique was what I was responding to.

But to my point ... explain or justify how you project the numbers you posted. That would give us something to comment on ... by offering our thoughts on a particular metric .... in agreement or countering with our projections.

Otherwise ... the projections posted resemble the numbers tossed out by some lady from Laguna Park on Price is Right.

 

[terpsfball09]

I'm not saying its irrelevant, cuz I think its interesting to talk about. I just think its inevitable that specifics of projections will be criticized in some way even though they are just projections. I like looking at other peoples, but as far as mine I just think its fine saying that I don't think he'll have a great year. Although I will say that I think Prince and Choo will make everyone better. Their successful approaches at the plate are contagious. But out of our 9 hitters, I think Leonys will be in the bottom two (I guess that's where we expected him anyway right?)

 

[jta4437]

I wouldn't have commented if you hadn't pinged Terps first ... I posted in response to that post ... not your original one. Your critique was what I was responding to.

But to my point ... explain or justify how you project the numbers you posted. That would give us something to comment on ... by offering our thoughts on a particular metric .... in agreement or countering with our projections.

Otherwise ... the projections posted resemble the numbers tossed out by some lady from Laguna Park on Price is Right.

Then DON'T fucking post, listen we usually get along but when you pull this shit, its annoying, if you don't agree with the premise of the post then don't go to the post

I based my numbers on last years numbers and what I expect to see this year, hence PROJECTION in the title, sorry I don't have some sort of formula that I used

 

[jta4437]

I'm not saying its irrelevant, cuz I think its interesting to talk about. I just think its inevitable that specifics of projections will be criticized in some way even though they are just projections. I like looking at other peoples, but as far as mine I just think its fine saying that I don't think he'll have a great year. Although I will say that I think Prince and Choo will make everyone better. Their successful approaches at the plate are contagious. But out of our 9 hitters, I think Leonys will be in the bottom two (I guess that's where we expected him anyway right?)

Its really not ok, b/c its not part of the premise and you're just adding bullshit to the mix,

Case in point, see current thread

If you want to make generalized statements, go to the offseason thread

 

[Windingmywatch]

Then DON'T fucking post, listen we usually get along but when you pull this shit, its annoying, if you don't agree with the premise of the post then don't go to the post

I based my numbers on last years numbers and what I expect to see this year, hence PROJECTION in the title, sorry I don't have some sort of formula that I used

I thought there would need to be some science behind being able to use the term "projection". Otherwise just title these threads something like ... "Pull it out of your butt: Leonys Martin".

 

[jta4437]

I thought there would need to be some science behind being able to use the term "projection". Otherwise just title these threads something like ... "Pull it out of your butt: Leonys Martin".

Then ONCE AGAIN, don't fucking post, its not that hard, you're a smart guy, I'm not exactly pulling a Jameis Winston here in my coherency

I don't feel like I'm "pulling it out of my butt"

 

[terpsfball09]

Its really not ok, b/c its not part of the premise and you're just adding bullshit to the mix,

Case in point, see current thread

If you want to make generalized statements, go to the offseason thread

So when you say in the title "Projecting Leonys" and I say I think he won't have that great of a year and then give you a couple of reasons as to why I don't, that's not projecting Leonys? Okay I get it now. I'll leave all of my projections of players in the offseason thread where it makes much more sense then in the "project x player" threads.

 

[terpsfball09]

Not everything has to be an argument dude. Nothing wrong with my first post, or the second one for that matter where I even said I thought the thread was interesting.

Sometimes I feel like you argue just to argue.

 

[jta4437]

Not everything has to be an argument dude. Nothing wrong with my first post, or the second one for that matter where I even said I thought the thread was interesting.

Sometimes I feel like you argue just to argue.

Point 3: Fuck Off

I started the thread I even stated in the original Profar post what I wanted to see, and the you still went against my wishes

If anything you started this argument with your inability to follow directions, congratulations!

Fordman, you can lock this up now, people are too stupid to bother with at this point and its only going to get ugly from here on out

 

[terpsfball09]

What!! haha well that was a reasonable reaction! this just got incredibly awkward

 

[Windingmywatch]

Man we still got 39 days until P+C report ...

 

[jta4437]

And who are the ones trying to incite a reaction now? You're BOTH just trolling for responses now, congrats trolls

 

[Bmurph]

Seems like an exercise in an educated guess to pass the time of nothing really going on in baseball right now. If anyone cares I don't pull numbers out of my ass, though I have no real formulas. I take the player's career stats, vs prior year stats and service time to formulate a basic guess as to what a player might do this year ( IE a player progressing with more service time and AB's or declining based on age and other factors). I don't expect to have any projections be 100% accurate for any metric nor do i care if anyone else thinks my projections are accurate. It is just for fun as are other conversations such as hypothetical trades or FA pick-ups and our other guesses as to what could happen with the Rangers

 

[terpsfball09]

And who are the ones trying to incite a reaction now? You're BOTH just trolling for responses now, congrats trolls

you just told me to fuck off.... and I'm trying to incite a reaction hahaha whatever man

 

[RevSader]

Seems like an exercise in an educated guess to pass the time of nothing really going on in baseball right now. If anyone cares I don't pull numbers out of my ass, though I have no real formulas. I take the player's career stats, vs prior year stats and service time to formulate a basic guess as to what a player might do this year ( IE a player progressing with more service time and AB's or declining based on age and other factors). I don't expect to have any projections be 100% accurate for any metric nor do i care if anyone else thinks my projections are accurate. It is just for fun as are other conversations such as hypothetical trades or FA pick-ups and our other guesses as to what could happen with the Rangers

I wish I knew all the metrics that steamer, ZIPS , and Oliver used to make their projections. Seems like there would be good money in being able to do it and be fairly accurate.

 

[jta4437]

Seems like an exercise in an educated guess to pass the time of nothing really going on in baseball right now. If anyone cares I don't pull numbers out of my ass, though I have no real formulas. I take the player's career stats, vs prior year stats and service time to formulate a basic guess as to what a player might do this year ( IE a player progressing with more service time and AB's or declining based on age and other factors). I don't expect to have any projections be 100% accurate for any metric nor do i care if anyone else thinks my projections are accurate. It is just for fun as are other conversations such as hypothetical trades or FA pick-ups and our other guesses as to what could happen with the Rangers

 

[jta4437]

you just told me to fuck off.... and I'm trying to incite a reaction hahaha whatever man

You are trolling this thread now, go away or contribute

 

[terpsfball09]

Seems like an exercise in an educated guess to pass the time of nothing really going on in baseball right now. If anyone cares I don't pull numbers out of my ass, though I have no real formulas. I take the player's career stats, vs prior year stats and service time to formulate a basic guess as to what a player might do this year ( IE a player progressing with more service time and AB's or declining based on age and other factors). I don't expect to have any projections be 100% accurate for any metric nor do i care if anyone else thinks my projections are accurate. It is just for fun as are other conversations such as hypothetical trades or FA pick-ups and our other guesses as to what could happen with the Rangers

Never said it wasn't fun. In fact, I said it was interesting. I just think looking at other people's specific projections is more valuable then me listing my own, because like you I can't just say "oh he'll hit for this and hit this many home runs." I think its a fine thread and one of these for everyone is perfectly interesting enough to pass the time. When I'm one of the few people that actually posts in the thread and I give my general projection of how Leonys is gonna finish that should suffice. If it doesn't, for fuck's sake ignore it its not that hard I tried hahaha

 

[terpsfball09]

You are trolling this thread now, go away or contribute

I tried to contribute. I posted what I think he'll do. I can't post specific numbers because they'll be way off to the point to where it will be counterproductive. I just said I think he'll have an off year based on what I've heard from this winter. I don't think that's not contributing. On the contrary, when 4 or 5 people are the only ones posting in a thread I actually can say that's acceptable. If you didn't think it was, then ignore it and respond to someone's specific numbers.

 

[jta4437]

I wish I knew all the metrics that steamer, ZIPS , and Oliver used to make their projections. Seems like there would be good money in being able to do it and be fairly accurate.

Exactly, all I can do is read what they put out and do my best to agree or disagree to a point

That's all this ends up being in the end

I see Martin making a little better contact this year with a little more plate discipline

I see a slight improvement over his numbers from last year, and without over thinking it thats what I see, and I think my numbers reflect that

I'm not going to go through and plan out ABs and PAs and figure it that way, I've wasted that time before only to have guys like the ones in this thread come in and do the EXACT SAME THING, so piss on that

It takes me 5-10 minutes to think about and type this info out now

 

[jta4437]

I tried to contribute. I posted what I think he'll do. I can't post specific numbers because they'll be way off to the point to where it will be counterproductive. I just said I think he'll have an off year based on what I've heard from this winter. I don't think that's not contributing. On the contrary, when 4 or 5 people are the only ones posting in a thread I actually can say that's acceptable. If you didn't think it was, then ignore it and respond to someone's specific numbers.

I'll be sure to include specific instructions for the slow people in the future

Your contribution really added nothing to the actual discussion and actually was the start of it getting way off topic, take that as you will

 

[Bmurph]

I wish I knew all the metrics that steamer, ZIPS , and Oliver used to make their projections. Seems like there would be good money in being able to do it and be fairly accurate.

If i was any good at this i would expect to get paid for it, however i just find it fun to look back on at year end and see if i by chance I was anywhere close on any metrics. Kinda like projecting team wins

 

[terpsfball09]

I'll be sure to include specific instructions for the slow people in the future

Your contribution really added nothing to the actual discussion and actually was the start of it getting way off topic, take that as you will

I was trying to contribute. You took it the wrong way. That's not my fault bro. I'm actually not slow btw, I'm a lawyer so I'm sorta known for being able to think intuitively and logically, which both the LSAT AND the BAR can display. But NOW I'm getting off topic.

I think Leonys will struggle this year. Boom. That's my projection. Don't like it, sorry about it. Its perfectly reasonable. Now, if you wanna say "that's counter productive because you didn't provide a reason" THAT'S LOGICAL. But saying "I didn't ask for general projections, I asked for a series of predicted stats so fuck off you're counter productive" is absolutely not a logical way to respond, which is why I laughed. I thought it was funny how upset you were getting.

Now, you want my reasons as to why I think he will struggle? That's a talking point. I think he has done horrible in the winter, he didn't really have a good year last year (yes I know it was his first) and I just never really thought he was gonna be THAT great of a player to begin with. I think he'll be in the bottom two on the team. Its impossible to say for certain future stats. We can only predict using last year's stats, winter stats, this year's acquisitions, and normal growth for a player in his second full year in the show. There ya go.

 

[RevSader]

If i was any good at this i would expect to get paid for it, however i just find it fun to look back on at year end and see if i by chance I was anywhere close on any metrics. Kinda like projecting team wins

One of my favorite things about LSB is that every spring people make projections. Brad saves official entries in a spread sheet and he runs the numbers after the season to see who was the closest and and furthest in their projections. Loads of people take part as well.

 

[jta4437]

I was trying to contribute. You took it the wrong way. That's not my fault bro. I'm actually not slow btw, I'm a lawyer so I'm sorta known for being able to think intuitively and logically, which both the LSAT AND the BAR can display. But NOW I'm getting off topic.

I think Leonys will struggle this year. Boom. That's my projection. Don't like it, sorry about it. Its perfectly reasonable. Now, if you wanna say "that's counter productive because you didn't provide a reason" THAT'S LOGICAL. But saying "I didn't ask for general projections, I asked for a series of predicted stats so fuck off you're counter productive" is absolutely not a logical way to respond, which is why I laughed. I thought it was funny how upset you were getting.

Now, you want my reasons as to why I think he will struggle? That's a talking point. I think he has done horrible in the winter, he didn't really have a good year last year (yes I know it was his first) and I just never really thought he was gonna be THAT great of a player to begin with. I think he'll be in the bottom two on the team. Its impossible to say for certain future stats. We can only predict using last year's stats, winter stats, this year's acquisitions, and normal growth for a player in his second full year in the show. There ya go.

Just go away, I could care less about you back story, thanks for sharing though

 

[Bmurph]

One of my favorite things about LSB is that every spring people make projections. Brad saves official entries in a spread sheet and he runs the numbers after the season to see who was the closest and and furthest in their projections. Loads of people take part as well.

Thats what makes it fun and I hope I way understate all our favorite Rangers stats.

 

[terpsfball09]

Just go away, I could care less about you back story, thanks for sharing though

Just responding to your comment about being slow and totally roasting you on it. No big deal. I'll go now

 

[jta4437]

Just responding to your comment about being slow and totally roasting you on it. No big deal. I'll go now

How did you roast me on anything???? You're a lawyer and you can't follow simple and implicit directions, congrats!!

 

[RevSader]

Disclaimer: This is hardly scientific, but I like to believe I know a little thing or two about baseball. I think it's fun to throw out an educated guess on what players may or may not do in upcoming seasons, so here will be my best guess about Leonys based on what I know about his abilities/potential.

Games: 156
PA:575
Batting Average: .260
OBP %: .330
SLG %: .400
wRC+: 95
HR: 10
R: 75
2B: 30
3B: 5
RBI: 55
SB: 45
WAR: This depends on his defense improving even more this season. I think he can do that and I also expect him to continue stealing bases. 3.5 fWAR

 

[terpsfball09]

Batting Average: .266
OBP %: .321
SLG %: .421
HR: 11
R: 74
2B: 24
3B: 5
RBI: 57
SB: 39
WAR: 3.2

HA ya great instruction right there. I'm reading it loud and clear. Alright, gone for good now. Just had to say something to that

 

[jta4437]

Disclaimer: This is hardly scientific, but I like to believe I know a little thing or two about baseball. I think it's fun to throw out an educated guess on what players may or may not do in upcoming seasons, so here will be my best guess about Leonys based on what I know about his abilities/potential.

Games: 156
PA:575
Batting Average: .260
OBP %: .330
SLG %: .400
wRC+: 95
HR: 10
R: 75
2B: 30
3B: 5
RBI: 55
SB: 45
WAR: This depends on his defense improving even more this season. I think he can do that and I also expect him to continue stealing bases. 3.5 fWAR

So you're seeing quite a bit of improvement on his plate discipline from last year

 

[jta4437]

HA ya great instruction right there. I'm reading it loud and clear. Alright, gone for good now. Just had to say something to that

It was included in the previous post about Profar, I decided to not repeat myself as I didn't think it was necessary, you and Winding have proven that to be a faulty assumption

And even if I wasn't clear enough for you with these first 2, I'll be extra super clear in the future

 

[RevSader]

So you're seeing quite a bit of improvement on his plate discipline from last year

I really hope so. I think the more comfortable he gets here it should improve. If he can be a .750 OPS guy it would really make losing Gentry not hurt so bad.

 

[jta4437]

I really hope so. I think the more comfortable he gets here it should improve. If he can be a .750 OPS guy it would really make losing Gentry not hurt so bad.

I projected a little improvement but it was hard to be too generous based on what i saw last year, sorry I don't have a fancy formula for that

 

[scotsman1948]

you just told me to fuck off.... and I'm trying to incite a reaction hahaha whatever man

RULE #1 for this board: never disagree with jta or romeo.

 

[ESPN Refugee]

We need spring training to start ASAP.

 

[fordman84]

No one get their undies in a wad, but I'm going to clean this up shortly. There is a place for these projection threads, and they keep us moving forward towards ST.

I'll try not to remove anything on topic, but need to clean this up.

 

[DT LUNA]

RULE #1 for this board: never disagree with jta or romeo.

I've never had a problem with either b/c they are very baseball savvy and I try hard to know as many facts as possible before posting or I keep quite. They will challenge you if you leave yourself open but we should all do the same if we can make a good case.

 

[scotsman1948]

I've never had a problem with either b/c they are very baseball savvy and I try hard to know as many facts as possible before posting or I keep quite. They will challenge you if you leave yourself open but we should all do the same if we can make a good case.

Granted, but if someone doesn't agree with your PROJECTIONS don't body slam them

 

[jta4437]

Granted, but if someone doesn't agree with your PROJECTIONS don't body slam them

I haven't slammed a single projection except the one that was just a "projection" of "Not very good compared to Profar"

what the hell does that even mean?

But thanks fordman for the cleanup... when you get it done

 

[TheRangerDude]

Not everything has to be an argument dude. Nothing wrong with my first post, or the second one for that matter where I even said I thought the thread was interesting.

Sometimes I feel like you argue just to argue.

Haha… I'm sort of on a break from this board because of this but I had to jump in a post here. You feel that way because its true. Dude attempts to dictate these boards and its a public forum (his avatar is fitting). He knows his baseball but his people skills and/or diplomacy are vertically nonexistent.

 

[TheRangerDude]

Also, I might note, that I think it is fun to try to make projections but I have a scientific education which disables me from being able to just throw some numbers out there that I would label a projection based on limited data. However I can post what I hope he does. Honestly, I hope he shocks us all and I think he has the ability to and put up these sort of numbers.

BA: .290
OBP: .350
HR: 17
RBI: 75
2B:31
3B:3

I'm not even going to try WAR or anything because even with my scientific background I really still have no idea how it works or even if it measures what it intends too. I do agree that players you generally expect to be near the top in this category are though.