Prince gone for Kinsler

[da55bums]

That is correct. The differences in the first two years contracts is $16MM (I think) total. That is the actual cost of the trade to the Rangers for the next two years. Don't buy into the notion that Prince is going to go downhill. He is only 29. He can stay at this level for 5-6 years easily.

Fielder 1.0 (230 lbs) = fell off the earth (no slight decline at all) at 32...just FYI, oddly enough after hitting 25 HR (Fielder 2.0 just hit 26)

Fielder 2.0 (275 lbs) will have a great year, in 2014, maybe 2015, then its all bets off after that

both played 1b/DH

 

[jdwills126]

Fielder 1.0 (230 lbs) = fell off the earth (no slight decline at all) at 32...just FYI, oddly enough after hitting 25 HR (Fielder 2.0 just hit 26)

Fielder 2.0 (275 lbs) will have a great year, in 2014, maybe 2015, then its all bets off after that

both played 1b/DH

Everyone is assuming Fielder is coming back after just a down year. This isn't an injury thing he needs to deal with. The guy had personal issues but on a bigger note he just seemed aloof in dealing with Detroit. If he has the same attitude in Texas he will have that fan base turn on him quickly. And I am not sue he would deal well with that.

 

[StanMarsh51]

Slight decline happens from age 30-33 but its not that much and luck factors can make that decline not even noticeable.

34 and on his when decline will start to be noteworthy. But that is an average. Some players last longer, some decline earlier.

One could say, because fielder is fat. He may age quicker if his weight was deteriorating his body. However

He has such a great track record of never missing games. So I don't see much reason to believe his weight is actually going to do that... You would think after about a decade of playing. If it was a factor. He would have had a DL stint by now...

Also, the decline curve for a 1st Basemen is a little more forgiving than just about any other position besides DH.

Well it's not just injuries....some players can lose their bat speed/skills instead.

Frank Thomas was a guy who was pretty durable in his 20s, and seemed to go from a .340 hitter to a .260 hitter overnight, and then the injuries piled on after (he'd have a great year here and there but those were few and far between).

Todd Helton's a guy who vent from averaging 35 HRs/season up to age 30 to never hitting more than 20 after that point.

There's also guys such as Berkman, Vlad, Richie Sexson, Glaus, Giambi, Hafner, Belle who all either started to break down or had skills declining quickly, if not both (not all were 1B)...and now we may be seeing it with Pujols, Howard, Teixeira.

Ortiz declined greatly from ages 32-34, then surprisingly returned to being an elite hitter, so he may be an exception.

If I was forced to bet, I don't think Fielder is having 5 more good seasons.

 

[da55bums]

Everyone is assuming Fielder is coming back after just a down year. This isn't an injury thing he needs to deal with. The guy had personal issues but on a bigger note he just seemed aloof in dealing with Detroit. If he has the same attitude in Texas he will have that fan base turn on him quickly. And I am not sue he would deal well with that.

100 percent agree....that is why I didn't like Fielder before the Tigers, with the TIgers and still after the Tigers...

it was a long time ago but I thought Cecil had a big problem at the end of his years with Detroit also...but who cares...Fielder 2.0 is a jerk.

(I actually like Kinsler, this will be odd....guess Enrique Ingesias will have to be my new whipping boy on offense...Jackkkkkson will always be my "special K"...)

 

[romeo212000]

Well it's not just injuries....some players can lose their bat speed/skills, and sometimes injuries on top of that.

Frank Thomas was a guy who was pretty durable in his 20s, and seemed to go from a .340 hitter to a .260 hitter overnight, and then the injuries piled on after (he'd have a great year here and there but those were few and far between).

Todd Helton's a guy who vent from averaging 35 HRs/season up to age 30 to never hitting more than 20 after that point.

There's also guys such as Berkman, Vlad, Richie Sexson, Glaus, Giambi, Hafner, Belle who all either started to break down or had skills declining quickly, if not both (not all were 1B)...and now we may be seeing it with Pujols, Howard, Teixeira.

Ortiz declined greatly from ages 32-34, then surprisingly returned to being an elite hitter.

If I was forced to bet, I don't think Fielder is having 5 more good seasons.

Bat speed doesn't decline at 29 years old.

 

[StanMarsh51]

Bat speed doesn't decline at 29 years old.

When did I say it does?

Saying 'xyz players tend not to age well in their 30s' doesn't mean I'm saying everything goes south at 29 years, 364 days.

The fact is, all those 'slugger' types, among others, did not age very well.

Add Juan Gonzalez to the mix of those sluggers who didn't age well.

 

[Lord Scalious]

Well it's not just injuries....some players can lose their bat speed/skills instead.

Frank Thomas was a guy who was pretty durable in his 20s, and seemed to go from a .340 hitter to a .260 hitter overnight, and then the injuries piled on after (he'd have a great year here and there but those were few and far between).

Todd Helton's a guy who vent from averaging 35 HRs/season up to age 30 to never hitting more than 20 after that point.

There's also guys such as Berkman, Vlad, Richie Sexson, Glaus, Giambi, Hafner, Belle who all either started to break down or had skills declining quickly, if not both (not all were 1B)...and now we may be seeing it with Pujols, Howard, Teixeira.

Ortiz declined greatly from ages 32-34, then surprisingly returned to being an elite hitter, so he may be an exception.

If I was forced to bet, I don't think Fielder is having 5 more good seasons.

Is there a correlation between bat speed and weight size as far as decline?

Until I see it. I'm going to assume normal decline. Which means they get 4 great years, with slight decline across them...1-2 good, quality, above average "but over-paid" years and 1-2 "why are we even paying you" year.

 

[romeo212000]

Is there a correlation between bat speed and weight size as far as decline?

Until I see it. I'm going to assume normal decline. Which means they get 4 great years, with slight decline across them...1-2 good, quality, above average "but over-paid" years and 1-2 "why are we even paying you" year.

That's my expectation, and by then Detroit will be paying a big chunk of that salary, and that's if Texas even still has him by then.

 

[StanMarsh51]

Is there a correlation between bat speed and weight size as far as decline?

Until I see it. I'm going to assume normal decline. Which means they get 4 great years, with slight decline across them...1-2 good, quality, above average "but over-paid" years and 1-2 "why are we even paying you" year.

Hardballtimes did a study on 'heavyset' players 2 years ago, with Fielder being the main topic of discussion.


How Will Prince Fielder Age? | FanGraphs Baseball

 

[jalopy]

Hardballtimes did a study on 'heavyset' players 2 years ago, with Fielder being the main topic of discussion.


How Will Prince Fielder Age? | FanGraphs Baseball

I guess I don't see where the decline is going to come from. From experience, I can tell you that my bat speed didn't slow down before 35 years old, although it was hardly at an elite level. Prince isn't going to be in the field and his baserunning is not going to suffer. Thome & Papi are good examples of players that remianed consistent (both suspected PED users)

 

[da55bums]

Hardballtimes did a study on 'heavyset' players 2 years ago, with Fielder being the main topic of discussion.


How Will Prince Fielder Age? | FanGraphs Baseball

wow, exactly what I have been saying on Fielder for two seasons.....thank you for posting..

 

[StanMarsh51]

I guess I don't see where the decline is going to come from. From experience, I can tell you that my bat speed didn't slow down before 35 years old, although it was hardly at an elite level. Prince isn't going to be in the field and his baserunning is not going to suffer. Thome & Papi are good examples of players that remianed consistent (both suspected PED users)

Well Ortiz is an anomaly, considering he went from hitting .304 with a 159 OPS+ from ages 28-31, then .257 AVG and 120 OPS+ from ages 32-34, then .311 and 161 OPS+ from ages 35-37. So he declined suddenly for a few years, then overnight became a great hitter again.

Regarding the high level question of 'where the decline is coming from,' I have no idea...it could be nagging injuries for all we know or some longer term injury...Shawn Green's one that comes to mind, averaging 38 HR/year from ages 25-29, then had a shoulder issue for the rest of his career, which didn't cause him to miss much time, but averaged 19 HR the rest of his career. So I may incorrectly be classifying some guys as losing skills when there may be an injury I'm unaware, but that's not my main point that sluggers (particularly with bigger body types) tend not to age well.

 

[redseat]

Yeah, Kinsler is not a "great" leadoff hitter by any stretch (.273 BA / .349 OBP career), but he strikes out half as much as Jackson. Austin would benefit from being in the 7 or 8 spot where he can be more aggressive. He has extra-base power, too.

Yeah I wasn't thinking Kinsler was the ideal candidate to lead-off but he is "better" at it then Jackson is currently so that's an upgrade.

Has Jackson said anything about his struggles leading off?

 

[Bulldog]

Good trade for both sides, I think. The Tigers can move Miggy back to first now, and they get a decent middle infielder to fill a position of need.

The Rangers get some needed power and a place for Profar to play every day.

The Tigers get what they wanted a ton of blubber and a boxcar of money off their roster. Texas can use the power bat of Fielder.

 

[Bulldog]

Same here although the Tigers need to find a 3B now as Miggy goes back to first.

Huuummm..............Now just maybe that's why the Angels traded for Freeze. Could Freeze actually whind up as the Tigers 3B and the Angels with a decent pitcher. Nah... the Angels front office just isn't that smart.

 

[da55bums]

Huuummm..............Now just maybe that's why the Angels traded for Freeze. Could Freeze actually whind up as the Tigers 3B and the Angels with a decent pitcher. Nah... the Angels front office just isn't that smart.

no to the Tigers needing 3b, castellanos

 

[dougplayer]

Peralta at 3rd. book it Dano

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

Peralta at 3rd. book it Dano

Peralta is done with Detroit. Rumor has it, someone has offered him a 4 year 52 million dollar contract already, but he is looking for as much as 75 million for 5 years. There isn't a chance in hell the Tigers give Peralta that kind of money.

 

[jalopy]

Peralta is done with Detroit. Rumor has it, someone has offered him a 4 year 52 million dollar contract already, but he is looking for as much as 75 million for 5 years. There isn't a chance in hell the Tigers give Peralta that kind of money.

I just knew you had it in you to be right about something.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

I just knew you had it in you to be right about something.

What do you mean? I was right when I posted that i've had more intelligent conversations with my 5 year old nephew than I do with you.

So I guess my last post is the 2nd time I've been right.