Prince gone for Kinsler

[da55bums]

I get the fact Detroit wants to save some money. I also understand wanting to move Miggy & they like Castellanos, but trading Fielder for Kinsler was a mistake. Kinsler is a solid player, but Fielder changes any teams lineup in a big way.

The Tigers were just as good of a team before Fielder got there. Milwalkee was better with him, but he will not age gracefully, just like his dad.

 

[StanMarsh51]

I get the fact Detroit wants to save some money. I also understand wanting to move Miggy & they like Castellanos, but trading Fielder for Kinsler was a mistake. Kinsler is a solid player, but Fielder changes any teams lineup in a big way.

I think the main question is how much longer could Prince have helped the Tigers. He'll be 30 next may, and although we can never assume anything, sluggers tend not to age well into their 30s (and he's not in particularly good shape on top of that).

For all we know, he might have 2-3 good healthy years left, then could lose his bat speed or start to break down, which we've seen quite a bit from similar types of players.....and then Detroit would be on the hook for paying him $25M the last 4-5 years of that deal.

 

[DaBoltsNIsles]

I think the main question is how much longer could Prince have helped the Tigers. He'll be 30 next may, and although we can never assume anything, sluggers tend not to age well into their 30s (and he's not in particularly good shape on top of that).

For all we know, he might have 2-3 good healthy years left, then could lose his bat speed or start to break down, which we've seen quite a bit from similar types of players.....and then Detroit would be on the hook for paying him $25M the last 4-5 years of that deal.

Like I said I understand from a financial standpoint, but player for player Fielder is a much better player than Kinsler.

 

[jalopy]

Like I said I understand from a financial standpoint, but player for player Fielder is a much better player than Kinsler.

WAR says different. Prince is a better hitter, but a liability in every other way.

 

[DaBoltsNIsles]

WAR says different. Prince is a better hitter, but a liability in every other way.

I don't care about war. I care about how a guy affects the game. Prince plays 1B. He's not going to be spectacular in the field. Pitchers fear him. They don't fear Kinsler one bit. He makes every hitter before him & behind him better because they're going to get better pitches to hit. Fielder was a big reason why Miggy was pitched to. Kinsler won't come close to having the same affect in Detroit. The Rangers lineup just got a lot better.

 

[Cobiemonster]

I think you have it backwards. The Tigers are intent on spending MORE money, just more efficiently. They had 3 1B/DH's and one needed to go. Getting Kinsler fills a need and allows the money to be spent elsewhere (LF, RP) without sacrificing the talent level. It gives them some flexibility with extending Max. If I didn't beleive that Fielder would rebound to his best years, I would think the Rangers got fleeced in the short term as well as the long.

Tigers trying to use the Red Sox philosophy, trade the big contracts, spend big again but just do it on two or three different positions/needs - I think that's smart for the Tigers

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

I think you have it backwards. The Tigers are intent on spending MORE money, just more efficiently. They had 3 1B/DH's and one needed to go. Getting Kinsler fills a need and allows the money to be spent elsewhere (LF, RP) without sacrificing the talent level. It gives them some flexibility with extending Max. If I didn't beleive that Fielder would rebound to his best years, I would think the Rangers got fleeced in the short term as well as the long.

Agree 100% with Jalopy -- It is addition by subtraction for Detroit. While they lose Fielder's bat in the lineup to protect Cabrera -- they fill a big need at 2nd base and free up money to spent elsewhere (LF and Bullpen). It also gives them more options with their own players -- they can possibly re-sign Scherzer now or they can still try and deal him this offseason. They have Cabrera's contract up in 2 years. They have Fister and Porcello to decide what they want to do with.

I think this is a really tremendous move by Dombrowski and I think it is just the first of many by the Tigers this offseason. By trading Fielder and picking up a player like Kinsler -- Detroit has many different options now. They could go after one of the FA OF's -- they could have another blockbuster trade if they deal Scherzer. Porcello is another guy people have talked about being traded. It could be a wild offseason for the Tigers.

 

[Darkstone42]

Tigers Exchange Albatross For Good Player, Get Even Better | FanGraphs Baseball

Kinsler is almost as valuable as Fielder right now, and projects to age better. Sure, you can say Fielder impacts the lineup in a bigger way, but Kinsler is a good get-on-base guy, and this frees up money for a play at a guy like Granderson, Choo, Nathan, or some combination, as Dave Cameron points out in the article I linked above. Choo and Kinsler together are definitely more valuable to the Tigers than Fielder. Granderson, Nathan, and Kinsler together are also definitely more valuable to the Tigers than Fielder. Add in the bonus of not having to make Miggy play third, and you've got a darn good deal from the Tigers' perspective.

 

[da55bums]

already reports Tigers are talking with Choo....if they pull off this plus a new bullpen...holy crap, the Tigers should win or its just not in the cards (depending how Miggy comes back with the groin)

Pitchers feared Fielder? yes once the Tigers were way ahead or way behind and he could use the HR derby swing...and definately not in high pressure games.

Fielder could be on the Royals and I would boo that guy...unbelieved by TIgers fans...I didn't like Fielder before he came to the Tigers and not going to like him with the Rangers......rich kid, MLB dad, silver spoon, advantages all the way up to the day he kicked his Dad out of the stadium and from his games...yeah that was a shocker...

Miggy may not be a leader but at least he has and continues to work his butt off.

 

[romeo212000]

We don't pay a dime until '16. By that time, Prince will likely be a high end DH in the mold of a Thome if you are lucky. The $30MM is kind of a phantom number and not at all an accurate reflection of the true compensation.

Wtf are you talking about? $30 million is $30 million. Who cares when they pay it? Fielder will probably come close to giving the rangers equal value while they're paying his full salary and by the time he starts to decline, Detroit starts paying a big chunk of it.

 

[pixburgher66]

If the Tigers get Choo...holy crap. Between him and Kinsler getting on base followed up by an RBI machine like Miggy? Look out.

 

[jalopy]

Wtf are you talking about? $30 million is $30 million. Who cares when they pay it? Fielder will probably come close to giving the rangers equal value while they're paying his full salary and by the time he starts to decline, Detroit starts paying a big chunk of it.

Relax! Because the Tigers don't pay the money upfront, the value is actually less than the face amount in today's dollars.
Let's say I agreed to buy your Pinto for $30K but didn't have to pay you for five years. You would probably be inclined to take less money now if it were paid in full because inflation will decrease the value of the dollar over time.
This isn't a new concept and it is the reason why the S30MM number is inflated. How much depends on your economic forecast and opportunity cost.y

 

[romeo212000]

Relax! Because the Tigers don't pay the money upfront, the value is actually less than the face amount in today's dollars.
Let's say I agreed to buy your Pinto for $30K but didn't have to pay you for five years. You would probably be inclined to take less money now if it were paid in full because inflation will decrease the value of the dollar over time.
This isn't a new concept and it is the reason why the S30MM number is inflated. How much depends on your economic forecast and opportunity cost.y

Following your same logic and the trends of inflation, prince's contract won't be as expensive in 2020 because elite players will become that much more expensive.

 

[jalopy]

Following your same logic and the trends of inflation, prince's contract won't be as expensive in 2020 because elite players will become that much more expensive.

That is correct and one of the reasons contracts usually escalate in value over time. Economics in baseball are tough to predict because of escalating revenue from media rights. The point is that the Rangers don't have the $30MM in hand to spend on someone like Cano, for example. The Tigers, on the other hand, will receive the cost savings of the difference of Prince's and Ian's contracts that they can apply immediately.

 

[romeo212000]

That is correct and one of the reasons contracts usually escalate in value over time. Economics in baseball are tough to predict because of escalating revenue from media rights. The point is that the Rangers don't have the $30MM in hand to spend on someone like Cano, for example. The Tigers, on the other hand, will receive the cost savings of the difference of Prince's and Ian's contracts that they can apply immediately.

Except that you have to subtract Ian's salary from the rangers, payroll. So they didn't actually increase their payroll $24 million, and trust me they still have money to spend.

 

[da55bums]

Romeo...

Fielder has a terrible contract because his production is going to actually go down and make the money higher than the value (but it will be a big upgrade over Moreland, so its still a win)....Profar produces more than Kinsler and the Rangers will be fine.

statistically because of who they replace, the Rangers still upgrade, overpay for Fielder but Profar is under team control so it offsets.

 

[StanMarsh51]

Wtf are you talking about? $30 million is $30 million. Who cares when they pay it? Fielder will probably come close to giving the rangers equal value while they're paying his full salary and by the time he starts to decline, Detroit starts paying a big chunk of it.

How do we know when he'll start to decline however? Guys with similar attributes to him tend not to age well in their 30s. For all we know, he could have 2 more good + healthy years, and then either a decline comes (ie - loss of bat speed) and/or injuries?

 

[Ronnie]

Let's make this simple. Kinsler vs Fielder? For Detroit it does not matter who 'the best' is.....

Detroit made $76mil on this trade. If they spend it all right now...they could sign free agents Joe Nathan and Jhonny Peralta and have money left over.

So here are the choices for Detroit fans:
Choice #1. Fielder only

Choice #2*. Kinsler + Nathan + Peralta and no Fielder

*(whatever cash Detroit was going to spend this offseason is still available)

 

[jalopy]

Except that you have to subtract Ian's salary from the rangers, payroll. So they didn't actually increase their payroll $24 million, and trust me they still have money to spend.

That is correct. The differences in the first two years contracts is $16MM (I think) total. That is the actual cost of the trade to the Rangers for the next two years. Don't buy into the notion that Prince is going to go downhill. He is only 29. He can stay at this level for 5-6 years easily.

 

[Lord Scalious]

How do we know when he'll start to decline however? Guys with similar attributes to him tend not to age well in their 30s. For all we know, he could have 2 more good + healthy years, and then either a decline comes (ie - loss of bat speed) and/or injuries?

Slight decline happens from age 30-33 but its not that much and luck factors can make that decline not even noticeable.

34 and on his when decline will start to be noteworthy. But that is an average. Some players last longer, some decline earlier.

One could say, because fielder is fat. He may age quicker if his weight was deteriorating his body. However

He has such a great track record of never missing games. So I don't see much reason to believe his weight is actually going to do that... You would think after about a decade of playing. If it was a factor. He would have had a DL stint by now...

Also, the decline curve for a 1st Basemen is a little more forgiving than just about any other position besides DH.