Power 5 Conference Testicle Check

[travis2x]

If you think it's such a big advantage in the win/loss area that the 1 extra game can potentially bring, then you haven't done the math. It's seriously adding AT BEST 6 or 7 total wins to your conference on the year. AT BEST.



It's not that my mind is set, it's that I've spent way more time on this topic than most people would and none of you ever bring new arguments.

In full disclosure, I once ran computer rankings and had my own SoS formula. So I have put a good bit of effort and know a good bit about the advantages and disadvantage of different SoS formulas.

Which doesn't make a bit of difference because the people I'm arguing with aren't speaking from logic, they are speaking from what they want to believe. You want to believe the extra conference game is some kind of difference maker and it's not. Have you done the math to support your belief? Nope. But because it sounds good - you accept it, and now you are telling me I'm the one set in beliefs. I have done the math.



BCF Toys - 2016 SOS Ratings

That is the one I like to use. Most SoS rankings use averages. Average SoS formulas have a flaw in that it see's playing the #1 team in the country and the #100 team in the country as basically the same as playing the #40 team in the country and the #60 team in the country as being equal. When in reality, you take a top25 team and put them on the schedule vs #1 and the #100 they are much more likely to have a loss than if they played the #40 and #60 teams.

So this method above is based not on average, but on grading the expected number of losses an elite team(or good or average team is also available). It would easily recognize playing the #1/#100 as being much more difficult. Which is why you see a lot of opponents of Alabama, Ohio St, and other top teams up higher than most.

These are also not based on wins and losses. Instead, these are based on advanced stats called the FEI.

BCF Toys - 2016 FEI Ratings

In a nutshell, it measures the strength of teams in order to rate their difficulty in beating. Where as with win/loss records it says all 5-2 teams are equal, this method is able to look at the strength of teams, so it doesn't see 7-0 Alabama as being equal to 7-0 Western Michigan. Win% based SoS formulas however would see those 2 teams as equal.

So this is currently my go to SoS rankings.

Flaws? I'm not sure I would call it a flaw, but there are things that it doesn't take into account and could be improved. That #100 team is REALLY easy, and easier than the #40/#60. And playing teams that you should beat every week, but not by a lot and playing them week after week can take it's toll as well. If I were using that SoS, I would probably measure vs elite teams, vs good teams, vs average teams and vs below average teams and combine them into a final ranking to make up for that. And when I did my rankings, I kept track of bye weeks and how long teams had gone without one vs the other team etc. This doesn't do that.

I would say those things are pretty minor and the "flaws" really apply more to the bottom side of the list rather than the top.

I will look further into your formula when I get a chance and I respect you posting it.

A couple things you got wrong about me. I am not telling you my method is right. In fact, I said above that I don't believe there is one method as I like to look at them all as each tell different stories. I do believe the one game for a majority of the conference does make a bit of a difference. I don't believe it tells the entire story like I said above as well.

Regardless, I personally believe that you call the number of P5 opponents irrelevant and not a big deal because it doesn't support your logic. I don't think it's the end of the world either, but I also won't pretend it's irrelevant. I am not out to get anybody, I just call it the way I see it. Since this is coming from the same guy who told me as a fan he would rather play a cream puff than another SEC East opponent and that he didn't notice a difference with more conference games, I guess we just won't see eye to eye. That's fine. I will respect your formula and take a look at it when I get a chance though...

 

[Deep Creek]

The Big 12 has convinced me they have it all wrong. Playing a true round robin conference schedule accomplishes nothing. It is currently fashionable for conference teams to go 4-5 years without playing every other member of their conference. The Big 12 needs to go down to a 6 game conference schedule to get with the times. They also need to follow's Baylor's lead and have a 100% cupcake OOC schedule. Things would be much better for conference members. This way maybe the Kansas, ISU and Texas Tech fans can view some wins in their lifetimes. Otherwise their self esteem will begin to feel like mine does because of the team I root for.

 

[4down20]

The Big 12 has convinced me they have it all wrong. Playing a true round robin conference schedule accomplishes nothing. It is currently fashionable for conference teams to go 4-5 years without playing every other member of their conference. The Big 12 needs to go down to a 6 game conference schedule to get with the times. They also need to follow's Baylor's lead and have a 100% cupcake OOC schedule. Things would be much better for conference members. This way maybe the Kansas, ISU and Texas Tech fans can view some wins in their lifetimes. Otherwise their self esteem will begin to feel like mine does because of the team I root for.

I think it's the lack of a conference championship game that hurts them. If they don't expand, I bet they still do that game since they changed the rule. I know some people don't want it because rematch, but rematches happen anyway, and the important thing is it gives them a great game at the end of the year that would seriously give some of these teams a much needed boost in their SoS.

 

[Deep Creek]

I think it's the lack of a conference championship game that hurts them. If they don't expand, I bet they still do that game since they changed the rule. I know some people don't want it because rematch, but rematches happen anyway, and the important thing is it gives them a great game at the end of the year that would seriously give some of these teams a much needed boost in their SoS.

Could be and they've said they are moving forward with the CCG. I just hope they don't divide into two 5-team divisions to determine the CCG participants. That's nuts IMO...just take the best two teams. Rematches aren't really a big problem IMO...unless it is a rematch of a game the immediately preceeding week or two. That's kind of clunky.

 

[TheRobotDevil]

Alabama consistently plays very competitive schedules, last year it was ranked the most difficult, it is currently ranked as one of the more difficult this season, and we'll play 2 more top 25 teams in the next month. As a whole, the SEC plays highly competitive schedules, last years Sagarin ranked 4 SEC teams in the 2015 final top 10, #1 Alabama, #4 Auburn, #5 LSU, and #6 Arkansas, with 10 in the top 25. If you can find some other rankings that contradict that, please show them to us, but just basing your ranking on the total number of P5 opponents, with no consideration of how good those teams are, is stupid.

We are under no obligation to make our schedules even more difficult just to suit you and that Alaska bozo. If the selection committee thinks we're trying to Baylor our way into the playoff, then they can take that into consideration in their rankings.

As for your excuse that the Alabama USC game was the first one of the season, it was for us too. And now that we've beaten Tennessee and Texas A&M, now they're bad teams? And since Washington is running roughshod over the PAC12, maybe you should also question the strength of the PCA12 too.

The SEC and PAC12 both play highly competitive schedules, so maybe you should focus your attention more on the ACC, the Big10, and Big12 instead.

That depends on what formula you are utilizing to determine SOS. While they do include one top tier OOC opponent. Alabama does shy away from home and homes. And their higher quality OOC games are more times than not. Are their season opener and played at a neutral site. Which adds the variables of removing him,e field.And having an entire off season to prepare for said game.

Their SOS also receives a boost. Due to the conferences scheduling practices. Through the SEC's system of playing an 8 game conference schedule.Opposed to a 9 game conference schedule. And substituting a conference game with an additional FCS team. Notably prior to their rivalry games to end the season.The are in truth adding an extra bye week. But more significantly. Padding the rankings within the division. By replacing a divisional loss.With an easy victory. Which changes the dynamics of the conference and SOS as a whole.

When you factor in the variables this scheduling tactic poses. It renders the SOS and statistics moot. Don't get ma won I'm not saying it is not an intelligent tactic. By manipulating the schedule it does create an illusion. However I believe this will be resolved in the future. Through either super conferences,play off expansion or another method. That puts each conference on a level playing field eliminating these flaws.And crowning one true champion

 

[cclxxxvdicere]

That depends on what formula you are utilizing to determine SOS. While they do include one top tier OOC opponent. Alabama does shy away from home and homes. And their higher quality OOC games are more times than not. Are their season opener and played at a neutral site. Which adds the variables of removing him,e field.And having an entire off season to prepare for said game.

Their SOS also receives a boost. Due to the conferences scheduling practices. Through the SEC's system of playing an 8 game conference schedule.Opposed to a 9 game conference schedule. And substituting a conference game with an additional FCS team. Notably prior to their rivalry games to end the season.The are in truth adding an extra bye week. But more significantly. Padding the rankings within the division. By replacing a divisional loss.With an easy victory. Which changes the dynamics of the conference and SOS as a whole.

When you factor in the variables this scheduling tactic poses. It renders the SOS and statistics moot. Don't get ma won I'm not saying it is not an intelligent tactic. By manipulating the schedule it does create an illusion. However I believe this will be resolved in the future. Through either super conferences,play off expansion or another method. That puts each conference on a level playing field eliminating these flaws.And crowning one true champion

We won't make the playoff because of beating our non-conference opponents, it will be if we can win our conference, the non-conference games won't mean anything. All that crap about manipulating the schedule is just that, crap. No, it doesn't render SOS and statistics moot, you just don't like it. If you can find some other SOS formula more to your liking, bring it on, but otherwise it's just whining. If the committee wants to dictate 9 conference games, that's fine with me, but otherwise we will continue to do what we're doing. Thanks for your concern.

If you really have a problem with teams getting an extra bye week, why is it not a problem that most of the Big12 teams get two actual byes? Oklahoma and OSU get a second bye the week before the last game of the season, but Iowa State and Kansas, two of the worst teams in the conference, only get one bye in the whole season. You don't consider that manipulating the schedule? They don't currently play a conference championship game, so they can get into the playoff while playing one less game, against a top 25 opponent, than the rest of the conferences. But you're not complaining about that, are you?

 

[TheRobotDevil]

We won't make the playoff because of beating our non-conference opponents, it will be if we can win our conference, the non-conference games won't mean anything. All that crap about manipulating the schedule is just that, crap. No, it doesn't render SOS and statistics moot, you just don't like it. If you can find some other SOS formula more to your liking, bring it on, but otherwise it's just whining. If the committee wants to dictate 9 conference games, that's fine with me, but otherwise we will continue to do what we're doing. Thanks for your concern.

If you really have a problem with teams getting an extra bye week, why is it not a problem that most of the Big12 teams get two actual byes? Oklahoma and OSU get a second bye the week before the last game of the season, but Iowa State and Kansas, two of the worst teams in the conference, only get one bye in the whole season. You don't consider that manipulating the schedule? They don't currently play a conference championship game, so they can get into the playoff while playing one less game, against a top 25 opponent, than the rest of the conferences. But you're not complaining about that, are you?

While I do not agree with teams having an extra bye week. An actual bye week does not result in a win. While removing a loss from the schedule in the process.Which holds ramifications on both rankings and bowl eligibility. The two are completely different animals. To say it is not manipulating the schedule is denial. You can call it whining it is the easy out.But in the end its simple logic and math.At this point in time with the current system and all the variables. There is no pure formula to viably determine SOS .College football is heading in the right direction. And the play offs are a great start. Once the NCAA has established a level playing field. Which I believe they will through super conferences ,play off expansion and or each conference holding the same standards. They will achieve an optimum system and crown one true champion

 

[cclxxxvdicere]

While I do not agree with teams having an extra bye week. An actual bye week does not result in a win. While removing a loss from the schedule in the process.Which holds ramifications on both rankings and bowl eligibility. The two are completely different animals. To say it is not manipulating the schedule is denial. You can call it whining it is the easy out.But in the end its simple logic and math.At this point in time with the current system and all the variables. There is no pure formula to viably determine SOS .College football is heading in the right direction. And the play offs are a great start. Once the NCAA has established a level playing field. Which I believe they will through super conferences ,play off expansion and or each conference holding the same standards. They will achieve an optimum system and crown one true champion

They sell keyboards with commas, just sayin.

 

[TheRobotDevil]

They sell keyboards with commas, just sayin.

A comma?What do I look like a Stanford or Cal fan

 

[Rolltide94]

Once the NCAA has established a level playing field. Which I believe they will through super conferences ,play off expansion and or each conference holding the same standards. They will achieve an optimum system and crown one true champion

You're dreaming if you think the NCAA is the one driving this boat...they can hardly get out of their own way, let alone make decisions.

 

[rsw626]

Saw this and immediately thought of @AlaskaGuy

 

[Edisto_Tiger]

 

[stanford the manford]

A comma?What do I look like a Stanford or Cal fan

hey now

 

[stanford the manford]

They sell keyboards with commas, just sayin.

some of them even have 'g's

 

[AlaskaGuy]

The 9 game conference schedule vs the 8 game conference schedule isn't even debatable imo. I can name maybe half a dozen G5 programs that would have an honest shot at winning a P5 conference. G5 programs such as Boise St., Cincy, and BYU have been strong in the past two decades but those teams don't see the same competition week in and week out nor do those teams compete with the stronger P5 programs in regards to recruiting. Only a NASCAR lovin Waffle House homer would think otherwise. Usually when a G5 program gets a decent coach he's hired by a P5 program in need of a decent HC. That's because the P5 programs get the lions share of the money and yes money counts. That TV money via the conference allows for better facilities, coaching staffs, recruiting budget, etc....

So this is how the SEC works it. First off they voted 13 - 1 in favor of not playing their own conference members .. this is a 14 member conference mind you that plays a measly 8 game conference schedule. That extra OOC game allows for them to schedule one decent P5 OOC game and three sisters of the poor while allowing that conference to suffer less losses in conference vs a conference that plays a 9 game conference schedule. That also helps towards getting more SEC teams bowl eligible.

 

[TheRobotDevil]

hey now

You know Trojans aren't known for grammar

 

[AlaskaGuy]

The Big 12 has convinced me they have it all wrong. Playing a true round robin conference schedule accomplishes nothing. It is currently fashionable for conference teams to go 4-5 years without playing every other member of their conference. The Big 12 needs to go down to a 6 game conference schedule to get with the times. They also need to follow's Baylor's lead and have a 100% cupcake OOC schedule. Things would be much better for conference members. This way maybe the Kansas, ISU and Texas Tech fans can view some wins in their lifetimes. Otherwise their self esteem will begin to feel like mine does because of the team I root for.

4 - 5 years without playing each other? There's SEC teams that will only meet twice in a ten year period.

 

[Edisto_Tiger]

The 9 game conference schedule vs the 8 game conference schedule isn't even debatable imo. I can name maybe half a dozen G5 programs that would have an honest shot at winning a P5 conference. G5 programs such as Boise St., Cincy, and BYU have been strong in the past two decades but those teams don't see the same competition week in and week out nor do those teams compete with the stronger P5 programs in regards to recruiting. Only a NASCAR lovin Waffle House homer would think otherwise. Usually when a G5 program gets a decent coach he's hired by a P5 program in need of a decent HC. That's because the P5 programs get the lions share of the money and yes money counts. That TV money via the conference allows for better facilities, coaching staffs, recruiting budget, etc....

So this is how the SEC works it. First off they voted 13 - 1 in favor of not playing their own conference members .. this is a 14 member conference mind you that plays a measly 8 game conference schedule. That extra OOC game allows for them to schedule one decent P5 OOC game and three sisters of the poor while allowing that conference to suffer less losses in conference vs a conference that plays a 9 game conference schedule. That also helps towards getting more SEC teams bowl eligible.

Now that's just taking it too far.

 

[AlaskaGuy]

Now that's just taking it too far.

I like Greg Biffle and Kasey Kahne if that helps. Biffle is from Washington state (Vancouver) and Kahne is from my hometown (Enumclaw).

 

[jonvi]

Now that's just taking it too far.

We commin' beech