POLL} The Best Overall Hitter In The Past 30 Years ?......

[BallsOfFurry]

Not ahead of Cobb or Aaron for best hitter?

No, but I agree if he had those war years back, maybe.

 

[soxfan1468927]

True, but OPS for the most part captures the value of current players. I barely even take note of Rockies players' stats.

Yeah Colorado and San Diego are the extreme examples. You can use a less extreme one like Boston to Seattle. Xander Bogaerts has a higher OPS than Jean Segura, but because of the ballpark difference you would say that Segura is having the better offensive season. And the same thing with wOBA, which is why I think it's funny to bash wOBA while praising OPS. Especially when they show very similar results.

 

[BallsOfFurry]

I can't quote the long post because this program won't allow me to scroll down, so I'll answer you here.
I do indeed think Cobb's batting as a stand alone measure would equal Williams in facilitating runs IF they played in the same era. Cobb didn't have the production around him to move baserunners at the rate Williams could, yet he still had 2000 RBIs. Imagine him as a #2 hitting in a strong lineup in the tee it up 50s. He'd have scored 3000 runs.

 

[BallsOfFurry]

Yeah Colorado and San Diego are the extreme examples. You can use a less extreme one like Boston to Seattle. Xander Bogaerts has a higher OPS than Jean Segura, but because of the ballpark difference you would say that Segura is having the better offensive season. And the same thing with wOBA, which is why I think it's funny to bash wOBA while praising OPS. Especially when they show very similar results.

I do like OPS better than WOBA for current players, but I see your point. That brings us back to WAR, by that measure Trout is making some historical noise.

 

[soxfan1468927]

No, but I agree if he had those war years back, maybe.

You have to put a LOT of value into longevity if you would take Cobb and Aaron over Williams. And if Williams had those war years back, you could potentially argue he was better than Ruth let alone Cobb/Aaron. He lost his age 24-26 year seasons and still led the league in OPS 10 times compared to 3 for Aaron, plus he led the league in OPS the year before he left for the each war and the year he came back from each war.

 

[soxfan1468927]

I can't quote the long post because this program won't allow me to scroll down, so I'll answer you here.
I do indeed think Cobb's batting as a stand alone measure would equal Williams in facilitating runs IF they played in the same era. Cobb didn't have the production around him to move baserunners at the rate Williams could, yet he still had 2000 RBIs. Imagine him as a #2 hitting in a strong lineup in the tee it up 50s. He'd have scored 3000 runs.

1. I don't judge a player on runs and RBI so how many he would have had doesn't really matter to me.
2. The OPS for the Tigers outside of Cobb, compared to the OPS for the Red Sox outside of Williams is minuscule. Tigers were 1.1% above league average without Cobb, Red Sox were 1.3% above league average. Plus, Cobb played with Harry Heilmann for 15 years and Sam Crawford for 13. So Cobb had at least one HOFer in the lineup with him every season of his career.
3. Why not just look at their OPS compared to the league in which they played?

 

[BallsOfFurry]

1. I don't judge a player on runs and RBI so how many he would have had doesn't really matter to me.
2. The OPS for the Tigers outside of Cobb, compared to the OPS for the Red Sox outside of Williams is minuscule. Tigers were 1.1% above league average without Cobb, Red Sox were 1.3% above league average. Plus, Cobb played with Harry Heilmann for 15 years and Sam Crawford for 13. So Cobb had at least one HOFer in the lineup with him every season of his career.
3. Why not just look at their OPS compared to the league in which they played?

You're referring to OPS+, or close to it.
Even using the baseline of 100 like they claim they do, the result doesn't impress me as representative of a player's value as a hitter career wise as WAR.
I do give a lot of credit to career RBIs, but total bases is far better, it's a very pure observation of isolated production. Think of baseball as a board game where you simply advance by how many points you role with dice. That is precisely what total bases does. It's an exact measure of a player's contribution towards run production, which is the purpose of the game.

 

[DragonfromTO]

I've explained why both Aaron and Mays are lower in OPS, they both played the entire second dead ball period of the 60s and early 70s. They are #1 and #2 in OPS of all the players whose career ran throughout the 1060s. It kept other great like Yaz lower than they deserve.
This thread started by comparing contemporaries, OPS is great for that, but less so when comparing players from disparate eras. WAR gets around that by comparing apples to apples **Wins Above replacement** means value above the contemporary average player.

And how do they rank in wOBA for the 1960s? I guess I'm thinking that it seems like you're discarding one metric largely for reasons that also apply to another metric that you say you prefer.

 

[soxfan1468927]

You're referring to OPS+, or close to it.
Even using the baseline of 100 like they claim they do, the result doesn't impress me as representative of a player's value as a hitter career wise as WAR.
I do give a lot of credit to career RBIs, but total bases is far better, it's a very pure observation of isolated production.

Why would you use WAR as a career value for hitting when it takes into account all factors, including defense and baserunning?

And you can look at total bases and RBI, but Williams had a much higher rate of driving in runs and a much higher slugging percentage than both of them. So, like I said, the only way to say that Williams wasn't as good of a hitter as Cobb or Aaron is to value longevity that much.

And not sure why you would look at career RBI too closely. You can easily produce runs without driving any in, or scoring any.

 

[BallsOfFurry]

And how do they rank in wOBA for the 1960s?

You tell me, unless it's already gathered, I'm not going to research it.

 

[BallsOfFurry]

Why would you use WAR as a career value for hitting when it takes into account all factors, including defense and baserunning?

And you can look at total bases and RBI, but Williams had a much higher rate of driving in runs and a much higher slugging percentage than both of them. So, like I said, the only way to say that Williams wasn't as good of a hitter as Cobb or Aaron is to value longevity that much.

And not sure why you would look at career RBI too closely. You can easily produce runs without driving any in, or scoring any.

Because I look at career WAR and it's very close to what we humans have judged.
Total bases with some use of stolen bases would give you the purest representation of moving around the bases, which is after all the entire purpose of the game.

 

[DragonfromTO]

You tell me, unless it's already gathered, I'm not going to research it.

I guess it kind of seemed to me that you would/should probably already know the answer given the conclusion you'd reached and how you say you reached it. But I'll check when I get to a computer rather than my phone.

(I also edited my prior post after you read it, sorry about that)

 

[DragonfromTO]

Because I look at career WAR and it's very close to what we humans have judged.
Total bases with some use of stolen bases would give you the purest representation of moving around the bases, which is after all the entire purpose of the game.

Walks and HBP also move players around the bases though.

 

[soxfan1468927]

And how do they rank in wOBA for the 1960s? I guess I'm thinking that it seems like you're discarding one metric largely for reasons that also apply to another metric that you say you prefer.

I wouldn't be surprised if Frank Robinson eeks out Aaron in wOBA. Their career OPS is very close and considering Robinson has the edge in OBP, while Aaron has the edge in slugging, my guess would be wOBA switches them.

Edit: I checked, he does. Actually a good indicator of how close the stats are. Aaron has a 2 point advantage in OPS, Robinson has a 1 point advantage in wOBA. A swing of 3 points as Robinson has a 15 point advantage in OBP while Aaron has an 18 point advantage in slugging.

 

[soxfan1468927]

Because I look at career WAR and it's very close to what we humans have judged.
Total bases with some use of stolen bases would give you the purest representation of moving around the bases, which is after all the entire purpose of the game.

1. Yes and like I said, WAR also is a longevity stat.
2. Total bases ignores plenty of other factors that move players around the bags too though. Which is why you look at OPS, which Williams blows them away in. But you have to adjust for era, and Williams still blows them away.
3. Williams is the 2nd greatest hitter of all time, and like I said, it isn't particularly close.

 

[DragonfromTO]

I wouldn't be surprised if Frank Robinson eeks out Aaron in wOBA. Their career OPS is very close and considering Robinson has the edge in OBP, while Aaron has the edge in slugging, my guess would be wOBA switches them.

Sure, but Frank is not exactly chopped liver (and is arguably more underrated than Aaron) himself.

 

[soxfan1468927]

Sure, but Frank is not exactly chopped liver (and is arguably more underrated than Aaron) himself.

He came in at 23 on my "Top 25 Player All Time" list. And that includes pitchers.

 

[BallsOfFurry]

Sure, but Frank is not exactly chopped liver (and is arguably more underrated than Aaron) himself.

I averaged total bases of some top players, adjusting Ruth, Gehrig and Cobb up 5% for the shorter seasons when they played.

Total bases per season
Gehrig - 312
Aaron - 298
Mays - 276
Ruth - 274
Cobb - 256
Rose - 240
You may think the numbers are skewed by Aaron possibly playing more games, I'm not saying he did, I'll check. My point is Trout and freeman are not producing now, that should factor into the picture.
I'll go fetch Williams and Robinson's info.

 

[BallsOfFurry]

Williams total bases per season, adjusted up 5% - 270
Frank Robinson - 256, his OPS is virtually identical to Aaron's his is .926, Aaron's is .927.

 

[BallsOfFurry]

Williams total bases per season, adjusted up 5% - 270
Frank Robinson - 256, his OPS is virtually identical to Aaron's his is .926, Aaron's is .927.

Aaron averaged playing 143 games over a 23 year career, 7 of them 154 game seasons.
He was remarkably durable.