Playoff & Super Bowl Fun Facts

[Bemular]

So, I wanted to spend a few moments data mining to see what I could find beneath a couple commonly published statistics.

We have all heard the turnover rate for playoffs is ~50% per year – which is close enough.

Since the league began its six-team playoff format in 1990 the AFC has turned over an average of 2.81 teams per year (46.8%) and the NFC has turned over 3.05 teams per year (50.8%) for an overall combined percent of 48.8%.

Since 1966 the turnover rate for the AFL/AFC is 48.3% while the turnover rate for the NFL/NFC is 46.4% for an overall combined percent of 46.9%

The question I wanted to answer was; ”how many of those new entrants into the playoffs actually make it to the dance?” So I pulled the numbers and put together the table below.

Looking at the previous seasons for each of the 92 Super Bowl teams we can see 67.39% of the teams making it to the Super Bowl were in the playoffs the previous season, meaning only 33% of those 50% new entrants into the playoffs 50% actually make it all the way to the Super Bowl.

What I found interesting however, is the disparity between those that win and those that lose the Super Bowl.

76.1% of the teams that win the Super Bowl were in the playoffs the previous year. By contrast only 58.7% of the teams that lost the Super Bowl were in the playoffs the previous year.

Shown in the table below are the breakdowns as well as the breakdowns of the playoff levels achieved by each of the 92 SB teams. Now, there are additional covers to pull back on this analysis, but I thought this was interesting enough to publish.

Here is a trivia question: "How many times in the Super Bowl era have the same playoff teams from one year wound up in the playoffs the following year?"

Answer – Two!

The 1967 NFL playoffs had the same two teams from the 1966 NFL playoffs and the 1984 AFC playoffs had the same five teams as the 1983 AFC playoffs.



The second statistic I wanted to sift through was the following.

We have all heard the claims about teams that begin the season with certain win/loss records have "a certain percent" chance of making the playoffs or not making the playoffs, etc., etc..

Well I wanted to take that idea and peel the covers back to the Super Bowl level to find out where the cutoff is for making it all the way to the Super Bowl.

Here is what I found; the answer may surprise a few.

Since 1966, 92 teams have played in the Super Bowl. Of those 92 teams only three times did these teams have a losing record after just 5 games. The Patriots did it twice (1985 & 2001) and the Raiders did it once (1980).

Moving forward to 7 games, only twice have SB teams had a losing record after 7 games. (Patriots, 2001) & (Steelers, 1995)

Moving forward to 9 games – Only the 1979 Rams (arguably the worst team to ever make it to the Super Bowl) had a losing record.

Moving forward to 11 games – Yep, the 1979 Rams are all alone at 5-6

The worst late season record that still made the Super Bowl was, you guessed it, the 1979 Rams who, after 14 games, were 7-7.

(The next worst record to still make it to the SB was owned by the 2011 Giants who were 6-6 after 12 games)

Additionally, only one team in SB history, the 2001 Patriots, overcame a 2-games under .500 deficit (1-3) and still went on to appear in the Super Bowl.

No team has ever made it to the Super Bowl after having a record worse than 2-games under .500 at any point during the season.

Said another way, if the future can rely on history at its witness then any team with a 2-3 record right now is attempting to do what has been done only 3 times in 46 years.

 

[BloodType49]

if we can keep this pace up these stats bode well for us so far

 

[NinerSickness]

The worst late season record that still made the Super Bowl was, you guessed it, the 1979 Rams who, after 14 games, were 7-7.

Wait, I thought the VaGiants were 7-7 last year as well.

 

[Bemular]

if we can keep this pace up these stats bode well for us so far

Extremely well! And not so well for teams like GB, NO, TB, DET, CAR, WAS and others. Interestingly all 4 NFC West teams are in play.

 

[Bemular]

I thought the Giants were 7-7 last year.

Good catch, I did indeed swap the Rams & Giants on the 6-6 & 7-7

This:

The worst late season record that still made the Super Bowl was, you guessed it, the 1979 Rams who, after 14 games, were 7-7.

(The next worst record to still make it to the SB was owned by the 2011 Giants who were 6-6 after 12 games)

Should be this:

The worst late season record that still made the Super Bowl was owned by the Giants who, after 14 games, were 7-7.

(The next worst records to still make it to the SB were the 1979 Rams & the 2011 Giants who, after 12 games, were each at 6-6.