flamingrey
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Should Football Teams Go for It on Fourth Down? | Super Bowl 46 New England Patriots vs. New York Giants | Sports Science | LiveScience
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/05/sports/football/05romer.html
http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~dromer/papers/JPE_April06.pdf
http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/17/a-new-study-on-fourth-downs-go-for-it/?_r=0
Advanced NFL Stats: The 4th Down Study - Part 1
Those all talk about it.
Theories on the concept. Not facts. Nor is it statistical evidence.