Our Big 10 preview thread 2016

[PnkPanther]

Ndsu will stomp iowa

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Iowa

Preview segment: The Iowa Hawkeyes

Last season: In 2015, the Iowa football team was just like Buffalo, Iowa's own WWE star Seth Rollins: A talented group that had major success (Iowa almost won the Big 10 title) while annoying the living hell out of everyone (Iowa went 12-0 with a soft schedule). In fact, had it not been for Michigan State, the f---ing Iowa Hawkeyes would have been in the playoff!
Then in the Rose Bowl, Christian McCaffrey lit Iowa up, and that was the end of that. However, much like Rollins recently did, the Hawkeyes have a chance to regain their former glory... and piss off a lot of CFB experts in the process.

Good news: It helps that C.J. Beathard is back at QB, along with his big WR Matt VandeBerg. Good line play is worth it's weight in gold in the Big 10, and Iowa has both the O-line AND the D-line working perfectly.

Bad news: VandeBerg may be the only WR Iowa can rely on, as there's a lack of depth at that position. The big thing Iowa needs to find, though, is a better pass-rush.

Key games:
9/10 vs. Iowa State (This rivalry has annually been a trend-setter for Iowa's football fortunes.)
10/1 vs. Northwestern (The scheduling gods strike again for Iowa: Northwestern may be a tough out, but the game's in Iowa City. Ditto for Wisconsin and Nebraska.)
10/8 @ Minnesota (Trouble is, Iowa better not underestimate this road trip to Minnesota; the Gophers want to ruin their season.)
11/12 vs. Michigan (Hey! This game's in Iowa City, too! ...Uh oh, it's Jim Harbaugh and a national title-seeking Michigan team.)
11/25 vs. Nebraska (A little fun fact: Road teams have won 4 straight in this rivalry series.)

Bottom line: Iowa's 2016 prospects can be summed up by this statement made by it's athletic director: "Hmmm...We have a good team... Home games against Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Nebraska... WOOO HOOOO! Fans, call up the travel agents! We're going back to Indianapolis this December!"

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Penn State

Preview segment: The Penn State Nittany Lions

Last season: A 7-6 record that included a 4 game losing streak to end things (including their bowl game with Georgia). And honestly, it affected me badly.
My dark side: "Oh, why? Because of Mr. Hackenberg going down? 'Cause his O-line was crap?"
Me: "I... just felt so betrayed. That unit was garbage."
Dark side: "I know, I know."

2016 X-factor: Penn State's new QB- James Franklin wants to keep the QB race open in fall camp, but in my opinion Tracy McSorley is the man. Tracy did his best to rally the Lions in last year's bowl game, and he did well in the spring game. Boom! That's it! QB race over!

Good news: Helping out McSorley will be RB Saquon Barkley, who ran for over 1,000 yards in his freshmen year. Linebacker and secondary will be strong points on defense...

Bad news: ...but the D-line lost quite a few players to the NFL. And yes, the O-line returns a few people, but it allowed 39 sacks last season. Fix it, Penn State! Quick!

Key games:
9/10 @ Pittsburgh (Actually, Penn State's season could hinge on what they do in September. First, Penn's O-line will be tested in an awesome-looking in-state match.)
9/17 vs. Temple (A straight-up revenge game for the Nittany Lions. Losing 27-10 to Temple put a giant damper on the whole 2015 season for Penn State.)
9/24 @ Michigan (If the Nittany Lions can beat BOTH Temple and Pitt, it would bode well for their Big 10 opener as they travel to Ann Arbor.)
10/22 vs. Ohio State (By this time, Ohio State should be rolling with their new players. Expect another gritty battle between these 2.)
11/5 vs. Iowa (I can totally see Iowa looking ahead to Michigan here and getting upset.)
11/26 vs. Michigan State (James Franklin is probably like "Yes! No more Connor Cook at Michigan State! Now we can FINALLY take back that 'Land Grant' trophy!")

Bottom line: If Penn State survives a rough September, the rest of their schedule is quite favorable. Improvement on offense (especially on that O-line) and finding replacements on that D-line could mean the difference between a 7-win season and challenging for the Big 10 East title.

 

[rfjeff9]

 

[Smart]

Ummm, no they're not. Not even close. Urban Meyer has only lost 1 regular season conference game since becoming the Buckeyes head coach and that came last year. Not even Saban did that his 1st 4 years at Bama. Wisconsin isn't a threat. It's Ohio State and everyone else.

In those four regular seasons that you cite to, we played OSU twice. In one, they beat us 21-14 in OT in a game where we outgained them by more than 50%. In the other, they beat us 31-24 in a game where we had the ball with a chance to tie with under 2 minutes left.

I'm not sure in what world we "aren't a threat." Outside of one game where our coach (who left the next week) got blitzkrieg-ed, we have pretty much played them even but lost in heartbreak every game. I think OSU should be the B1G favorite, but if they think we "aren't a threat" they probably won't come out of Camp Randall with a win.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Michigan State

Preview segment: The Michigan State Spartans

Last season: Okay... After a couple of hectic days here, it looks like things have quieted down on this thread. Now we can all take a deep breath and focus on the 2016 season.
For Michigan State, that's probably the best thing they can do right now; after scoring five 10-win seasons over the past 6 years and their 11th Big 10 title in 2015, the Spartans are in rebuilding mode.

2016 X-factor: The Alabama effect- Last time we saw the Spartans, they and Connor Cook were getting their brains scrambled by Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide. Will that game affect Michigan State going forward, especially now that Connor Cook is no longer here? We'll see; it should be interesting to watch.

Good news: Strangely, there's no QB controversy in East Lansing, as Tyler O' Connor will be MSU's starting QB (no doubt because of his leadership in that big win at Ohio State). LJ Scott could be the next big star RB for the Spartans, and the defense looks good (as usual) with a strong linebacker group and a improved secondary.

Bad news: The lines for MSU are a little more unsettled; defensive end could be a weak spot on the D-line, and the O-line must fill in big gaps after 3 of their guys left for the NFL.

Key games:
9/17 @ Notre Dame (Well, I guess we'll find out how good Michigan State's new passing game will be here in South Bend.)
9/24 vs. Wisconsin (But right afterwards, MSU must host the Badgers. And don't be fooled; Wisconsin will still be a tough out in 2016.)
10/8 vs. BYU (It's not just playing BYU that's worrying me. It's the fact that afterwards, Michigan State must host a tough Northwestern team. Will the Spartans have Wildcats on the brain here?)
10/29 vs. Michigan (...There. That's all you need for this one.)
11/19 vs. Ohio State (If you think about it, Ohio State's in the same boat as the Spartans: They're replacing a LOT of starters, but they'll still be a tough team to play.)

Bottom line: To me, Michigan State is the ultimate wild-card team of 2016. They have to replace Connor Cook and a few more stalwarts on offense, but I just can't take them out of the Big 10 race. I guess it'll be up to Mr. Dantonio to keep the happy times rolling in East Lansing.

 

[Across The Field]

In those four regular seasons that you cite to, we played OSU twice. In one, they beat us 21-14 in OT in a game where we outgained them by more than 50%. In the other, they beat us 31-24 in a game where we had the ball with a chance to tie with under 2 minutes left.

I'm not sure in what world we "aren't a threat." Outside of one game where our coach (who left the next week) got blitzkrieg-ed, we have pretty much played them even but lost in heartbreak every game. I think OSU should be the B1G favorite, but if they think we "aren't a threat" they probably won't come out of Camp Randall with a win.

Those were also his first two years. 2012 OSU was by far the worst under him, with 2013 his second worst. Then you faced 2014 OSU and got brutally murdered. Not that I think this year's game at Camp Randall is a gimme or a guaranteed win, but OSU should be heavily favored.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Indiana

Preview segment: The Indiana Hoosiers

Last season: Confession time, folks. Last summer, I was briefly obsessed with the Cartoon Network show "Teen Titans Go!" and all of it's weird adventures. Now in 2016, "Teen Titans" has worn out it's welcome with me, but for the young kids watching it now it's good enough for them.
What does this have to do with Indiana football? Because it's fans were just fine with a 6-7 record in 2015, mainly because Indiana made it's first bowl since 2007.

Good news: Despite losing Nate Sudfeld, the offense may just pick up right where they left off. It has a deep group of wide-receivers, an All-American on the O-line, and a QB (Richard Lagow) that can spread the field. The defense returns some talent...

Bad news: ...but Indiana still has a LONG way to do on that side of the ball. I mean, they gave up 37.6 points per game last season, and for that to improve the D-line HAS to get better.

Key games:
10/1 vs. Michigan State (If all goes well, Indiana should be 3-0 entering their Big 10 opener. The Hoosiers haven't beaten the Spartans since 2006.)
10/8 @ Ohio State (So many "What If's" from last year's game... "What if Indiana held off Ezekiel Elliot?" "What if Indiana completed that last play in the end zone?" ...But this year in Columbus, Indiana may be better off just surviving against the Buckeyes.)
10/29 vs. Maryland (This game will help shape Indiana's postseason chances... for better or worse.)
11/12 vs. Penn State (See above game)
11/26 vs. Purdue (The "Old Oaken Bucket" will be on the line for the 119th time here.)

Bottom line: With the defense still rather porous and Sudfeld gone from Bloomington, Indiana will be stuck just fighting for a bowl game in the Big 10 East. But for Indiana football fans, making a bowl game will be just fine by their standards.

 

[ericd7633]

Those were also his first two years. 2012 OSU was by far the worst under him, with 2013 his second worst. Then you faced 2014 OSU and got brutally murdered. Not that I think this year's game at Camp Randall is a gimme or a guaranteed win, but OSU should be heavily favored.

Ohio State is currently only a 3 point favorite at Wisconsin.

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Update for tomorrow

Nebraska fans, wake up! Tomorrow I'll be taking a look at your prospects for 2016!

 

[Across The Field]

Ohio State is currently only a 3 point favorite at Wisconsin.

Currently, yes. By game time, I would expect it to grow.

 

[ericd7633]

Currently, yes. By game time, I would expect it to grow.

I'd be shocked if it got to anything over 7. Ohio State only opened as a 14 point favorite against a bad Michigan team in 2013 on the road.

 

[Across The Field]

I'd be shocked if it got to anything over 7. Ohio State only opened as a 14 point favorite against a bad Michigan team in 2013 on the road.

At worst, OSU will be 4-1 going into that game. Depending on how well Oklahoma's defense reloads, that game could be very interesting. They'll also be coming off of two cupcakes and a bye week.

Wisconsin will very likely be 2-3 and beat up pretty bad, even with the bye week, after back-to-back road games vs michigan and MSU.

I'd guess by gametime it'll be at least 7, and if OSU beats OU, I think it'll be 10.

 

[ericd7633]

At worst, OSU will be 4-1 going into that game. Depending on how well Oklahoma's defense reloads, that game could be very interesting. They'll also be coming off of two cupcakes and a bye week.

Wisconsin will very likely be 2-3 and beat up pretty bad, even with the bye week, after back-to-back road games vs michigan and MSU.

I'd guess by gametime it'll be at least 7, and if OSU beats OU, I think it'll be 10.

Even a 2-3 Wisconsin record I still think it'll be under 7 and probably at about 4.5. Clemson's only favored by 7.5 against Auburn. And I think Wisconsin is better than them. Vegas generally doesn't care about record. Depends on how Wisconsin looks in those games. And Wisconsin never gets blown off the field(exception 2014 B1GCG)

Even so would you consider being a 7 point favorite a heavy favorite?

 

[Across The Field]

Even a 2-3 Wisconsin record I still think it'll be under 7 and probably at about 4.5. Clemson's only favored by 7.5 against Auburn. And I think Wisconsin is better than them. Vegas generally doesn't care about record. Depends on how Wisconsin looks in those games. And Wisconsin never gets blown off the field(exception 2014 B1GCG)

Even so would you consider being a 7 point favorite a heavy favorite?

I think for it being an in-conference game, in Wisconsin, yeah that's a pretty heavy favorite. Like I said, if we beat OU, I think it'll be 10.

 

[ericd7633]

I think for it being an in-conference game, in Wisconsin, yeah that's a pretty heavy favorite. Like I said, if we beat OU, I think it'll be 10.

Ahh that's where we disagree. I don't think a spread at 7 is considered a heavy favorite. If it got up to about 11/12 I would consider that a pretty significant favorite, in this scenario.

 

[rmilia1]

I'd be surprised if MSU beats Wisconsin even in EL. Only way I could see it is in a 10-7 or 14-13 type game. If Bucky scores more than twice they'll beat Sparty.

 

[Skerpokes]

Probably been stated before but Nebraska was only a handful of plays away from being 11-1 in the regular season last year and one could only hope they'll improve under the 2nd year of Riley. Best receiving corps in the B1G with a 4 year starter at QB who hopefully improves on the turnover margin. Also, an improved rushing attack over last year should hopefully help Armstrong at QB.

There's some unknowns defense, especially on the D-Line. Nebraska ranked 121st in passing yards allowed last year. If they can improve that by only 50% this year, then you should see some major improvement. And I see at least 10 if not 11 winnable games on the schedule this year with the only sure loss being OSU. Assuming we don't shit the bed like last year and take care teams like Illinois and Purdue, the toss-up games would be Whisky, Iowa, and Oregon.

Best case: 11-1
Worst Case: 8-4

 

[rmilia1]

Probably been stated before but Nebraska was only a handful of plays away from being 11-1 in the regular season last year and one could only hope they'll improve under the 2nd year of Riley. Best receiving corps in the B1G with a 4 year starter at QB who hopefully improves on the turnover margin. Also, an improved rushing attack over last year should hopefully help Armstrong at QB.

There's some unknowns defense, especially on the D-Line. Nebraska ranked 121st in passing yards allowed last year. If they can improve that by only 50% this year, then you should see some major improvement. And I see at least 10 if not 11 winnable games on the schedule this year with the only sure loss being OSU. Assuming we don't shit the bed like last year and take care teams like Illinois and Purdue, the toss-up games would be Whisky, Iowa, and Oregon.

Best case: 11-1
Worst Case: 8-4

This year Nebraska reminds me a lot if 2009 Iowa. In 08 Iowa lost all their games by less than 1 score. The next year they went 11-2 and won the Orange Bowl. I could see the Husker getting to double digit wins

 

[Dolgevillefootballfan]

Nebraska

Preview segment: The Nebraska Cornhuskers

Last season: Look, Nebraska football. I knew that entering 2015 things would be a little nuts due to you guys getting a new coach, but JESUS F---ING CHRIST! Did 2015 really have to be THAT painful?
I don't care if you somehow won a bowl game over UCLA and that you had a lot of close finishes; you were losing to teams like Illinois and f---ing Purdue! This program has had only 2 losing seasons since 1962 before this year, so hopefully the Huskers will right the ship.

Good news:

Probably been stated before but Nebraska was only a handful of plays away from being 11-1 in the regular season last year and one could only hope they'll improve under the 2nd year of Riley. Best receiving corps in the B1G with a 4 year starter at QB who hopefully improves on the turnover margin. Also, an improved rushing attack over last year should hopefully help Armstrong at QB.

Bad news: Nebraska's pass defense was miserable (121st last year), so fixing that with a better D-line will be key to their success. The O-line is a worry too, as it will be leaning on 3 newcomers. Turnovers were also a problem last year.

Key games:
9/17 vs. Oregon (According to the preseason CFB magazines, a big hang-up on the Huskers is a hard schedule. However, I think Nebraska has a chance in this one if they can stop Royce Freemen.)
9/24 @ Northwestern (More on this game when I preview Northwestern later today.)
10/29 @ Wisconsin (Oh, the schedule's not THAT bad, you big wimps. Sure Nebraska must go to Madison, but by this time Wisconsin should be good and spent.)
11/5 @ Ohio State (Oh! NOW I know why the magazines were freaking out. If Nebraska is to stand a chance here, they must get to J.T Barrett.)
11/25 @ Iowa (With luck, Nebraska's passing game will be ready to take out an Iowa team that'll be thinking Big 10 title come "Black Friday".)

Bottom line: Nebraska is another hard team to forecast; they have more talent than you think, and the schedule's not as hard as everyone's making it out to be. But going to places like Iowa and Ohio State will NOT be easy.
For Mike Riley's sake, let's all hope that the Huskers will be SOMEWHERE in the race for the Big 10 title.