OT: The Luck Derby

[Cincyfan78]

The problem is that Bradfords signing bonus is spread out over the years of the contract. I would bet that it makes it nearly impossible for the Rams to trade him because the rest of the bonus would accelerate into the current cap space. All of the bonus has already been paid out, but it doesn't all count against the cap for one year, but the life of the contract. I would be willing to wager that the Rams simply can't afford to trade Bradford.

They could draft Luck and keep Bradford with the new CBA...since Luck wouldn't be making nearly as much as the old #1 picks would go. Eventually, they would be able to trade him, but I would think they would have to wait until at least the end of next year when you are allowed to split the cap hit between 2012 and 2013, depending on just how long and how much money Bradford is counting against the cap.

 

[flamingrey]

The Colts are one of the worst teams I've ever seen. I think it's a reflection of their HC who is clearly in way, way, way over his head. Caldwell makes Marv look like Belichek

This.

Caldwell was exposed badly in that Superbowl they lost. I couldn't believe with over 1 minute left and 2 TO, they did not even attempt to go for a FG with maybe the best QB the NFL has ever seen.

Not to mention that season alone Peyton had to engineer I believe it was 7 come from behind wins in the 4th quarter.

 

[flamingrey]

The problem is that Bradfords signing bonus is spread out over the years of the contract. I would bet that it makes it nearly impossible for the Rams to trade him because the rest of the bonus would accelerate into the current cap space. All of the bonus has already been paid out, but it doesn't all count against the cap for one year, but the life of the contract. I would be willing to wager that the Rams simply can't afford to trade Bradford.

Where did you find the details of his contract. I couldn't find it anywhere.

The best I could do is over the first 2 seasons I believe he was to receive half the bonus and then over the 2nd 2 the other half. It was kind of confusing.

 

[Tubbs1518]

This is a moot conversation. The Rams aren't trading the #1 pick from last year who was really good, the rookie of the year, led them to the playoffs with a horrible team last year. He has no line, no weapons outside of Steven Jackson, no D. They will trade the #1 pick for a kings ransom as they should. That is the best intrest for that team. Even if they did keep Luck he wouldn't last long behind that line either. You have to give a guy some weapons and Bradford has 0.

 

[cincygrad]

This is a moot conversation. The Rams aren't trading the #1 pick from last year who was really good, the rookie of the year, led them to the playoffs with a horrible team last year. He has no line, no weapons outside of Steven Jackson, no D. They will trade the #1 pick for a kings ransom as they should. That is the best intrest for that team. Even if they did keep Luck he wouldn't last long behind that line either. You have to give a guy some weapons and Bradford has 0.

Bradford did not lead the Rams to the playoffs. He has beat one playoff team in his career (the 7-9 seahawks) and his durability issues have already been called into question (as they were in college).

 

[Tubbs1518]

Doesn't matter. Too much money guarenteed and still do to trade him. Plus would you rather have Luck or Bradford plus the 3 #1's that Luck will probably get. So Luck or Bradford plus #1 WR, LT, #1 CB?

 

[Tubbs1518]

And I see 3500 yards and more TD's than INT's as leading the team. Especially with the weapons he had around him.

 

[Cincyfan78]

rey, the bonus structure is almost* always spread out over the life of the contract, regardless of when it is paid out. That is why many teams sign guys to low contracts and big bonuses. The contract will count against the cap each year...where as they can pay a bonus nearly 4x's the amount of the contract and spread it out over the life of the contract, even though the player usually* gets the money up front in year 1 or in year 1 and 2.

Bradfords' contract has 50Mil guaranteed. When you figure that only 10mil is from the actual contract, the rest is tied to bonus money.

A look at Bradford's contract

 

[flamingrey]

Doesn't matter. Too much money guarenteed and still do to trade him. Plus would you rather have Luck or Bradford plus the 3 #1's that Luck will probably get. So Luck or Bradford plus #1 WR, LT, #1 CB?

I would keep a QB who has the potential to be a great over a receiver, LT, and CB who all may or may not pan out.

If Luck were to turn out to be a Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, etc., there is no value that you could have gotten that would've been fair.

So, while you may have gotten 3 firsts, looking back at it 10 years down the road, you'll have been the loser in the trade.

 

[Tubbs1518]

And if Luck turns out to be Ryan Leaf and Bradford goes on to a HOF career?

 

[cincygrad]

I would keep a QB who has the potential to be a great over a receiver, LT, and CB who all may or may not pan out.

If Luck were to turn out to be a Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, etc., there is no value that you could have gotten that would've been fair.

So, while you may have gotten 3 firsts, looking back at it 10 years down the road, you'll have been the loser in the trade.

I agree with this point. Look at the Rams past 10 first round draft picks..... No guarantee that additional picks are going to help them. I'd take the best qb prospect to come out in the past 15 years.

List of St. Louis Rams first-round draft picks - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Tubbs1518]

No thanks. Then you basically have to keep Bradfords money on the team because you can't afford to trade him. Bradford has been fine. It's the team around him that needs help.

 

[cincygrad]

They can trade Bradford - Nobody has given a number on how much they would have to absorb if they traded him, but I'm sure given the current caps they could make it happen. It's not like they have a ton of players that they "need" to keep. I'd take Luck and get a few picks for Bradford. If Palmer is worth a 1st and 2nd, then Bradford must be worth at least the same.

 

[Tubbs1518]

Bradford is owed about 19 mil in guarenteed money still from what I can gather. That is all owed up front if traded. Not gonna happen.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Have the Colts resigned Manning to a mega deal yet?

If they do, I doubt they even draft Luck with teh #1 overall pick, because they are going to want to surround their franchise QB with talent on teh field, not find him a backup.

St. Louis is not going to give up on Bradford so easily when he has played very well considering he has nothing in St. Louis to work with.

Jacksonville and Carolina would also pass on Luck at this point. I know Gabbert has not looked good, but I don't see any team drafting a QB in the 1st round to be their franchise QB the year before, start them all season, and then draft another QB #1 overall.

You can say Carolina did it with Claussen but wasn't Claussen like a 3rd round pick?

If Peyton Manning is healthy by the end of this season, I don';t see any of the following teams draft QB #1 overall...

Indianapolis
Jacksonville
St. Louis
Carolina

You can say, Manning is getting old and coming off major surgery, Gabbert sucks, Bradford hasn't done much since getting there, and obviously Carolina's problem is not QB, but no NFL team is going to admit to f'n up their first round pick the year before or so on a QB they have handed the keys over too. They are going to give him a chance to prove or disprove himself over 3 to 5 years.

 

[Cincyfan78]

The colts did re-sign manning.

However, there is an out clause. If Manning is unable to continue playing football....his contract converts to a 1 year deal (this year) and that's it. He put that in there to protect the Colts in case his neck doesn't heal.

 

[flamingrey]

rey, the bonus structure is almost* always spread out over the life of the contract, regardless of when it is paid out. That is why many teams sign guys to low contracts and big bonuses. The contract will count against the cap each year...where as they can pay a bonus nearly 4x's the amount of the contract and spread it out over the life of the contract, even though the player usually* gets the money up front in year 1 or in year 1 and 2.

Bradfords' contract has 50Mil guaranteed. When you figure that only 10mil is from the actual contract, the rest is tied to bonus money.

A look at Bradford's contract

I tried reading through that article and it seems he has way too many potential escalators in there. It seems that was there way of protecting themselves in case he busted.

But from the looks of it, he has about $22 million ($19 bonus plus base salary for remaining years) or so left in guaranteed money. But then another $27 million in non-guaranteed money which he will obviously get since neither the Rams nor a team that trades for him will cut him.

The kicker here though is he's still under contract for another 4 years. So approximate that at ~$50 million over 4 years, and his contract is at $12 million a year. Now say the Rams will agree to pay for half of his guaranteed. We'll estimate it at $10 million, and he's left with a contract just under $10million/year.

In either case ($10 or $12), I'd consider his contract still tradeable for the following reasons:

1) Many still see him as an up-and-coming QB, so any team could easily expect to keep him for the remaining 4 years of his contract. So there's little risk there that he busts before his contract is up.

2) $10-$12 million for an unproven QB is on the high end ($12 million), but it isn't so ridiculously high that you won't have at least a few bidders for it. As someone mentioned earlier, if someone can trade for Carson's $11 million salary at 31 years old, while it'll be a different group of bidders, someone will think his $10-$12 is worth taking a risk on.

*Edit: I rounded up more than I had originally thought so that $12 million is likely closer to $11 million. But that's just pinching pennies.

 

[Tubbs1518]

Carson restructured his deal.

 

[flamingrey]

Only for this year. The next 3 years he's owed $11.5+ million a year. Despite that, ESPN reported a couple days ago, the Cardinals, 49ers, Seahawks, and Dolphins at one point all still showed interest in Carson.

Bradford would have takers.

 

[Tubbs1518]

Ok, and with 3 blue chip prospect QB's coming out, teams will be waiting to see how the draft goes before they will make a trade. Then it will be really hard to work out a deal on draft day. After that they have to wait another year to get the picks they will get from Bradford. STL is not trading him.