OT - I'm bored, Part Pangos & Bell!

[Darkstone42]

Bye Russ, if you were going anywhere, I'm happy it's there....and not the Cubs. That deal though, is rough. The last two years will probably be poor.

That Cards deal pisses me off. Cards won it. By a good amount.

I don't know about that. Miller should be a pretty good starter moving forward, and starting pitching is extremely valuable in the trade market. Since the Braves aren't sure they're bringing back Santana, and since they can't afford Heyward beyond this year, it was a good move for them to make.

 

[Cobiemonster]

I don't know about that. Miller should be a pretty good starter moving forward, and starting pitching is extremely valuable in the trade market. Since the Braves aren't sure they're bringing back Santana, and since they can't afford Heyward beyond this year, it was a good move for them to make.

Their pitching is a little better, but their offense is not very good now and it wasn't good to begin with - even if they pitch well, if they can't hit and give Freddie Freeman and Justin Upton the protection they need, it will be more of the same

 

[pixburgher66]

I don't know about that. Miller should be a pretty good starter moving forward, and starting pitching is extremely valuable in the trade market. Since the Braves aren't sure they're bringing back Santana, and since they can't afford Heyward beyond this year, it was a good move for them to make.

I agree that they needed to move Heyward (they need to move the Uptons too, but they're NEVER moving BJ), but Miller (at least to the Cards) wasn't exceptionally valuable. At least through the eyes of this Pirates fan. I suppose a simpler statement is that this deal benefits the Cards too much for my liking.

 

[Darkstone42]

I agree that they needed to move Heyward (they need to move the Uptons too, but they're NEVER moving BJ), but Miller (at least to the Cards) wasn't exceptionally valuable. At least through the eyes of this Pirates fan. I suppose a simpler statement is that this deal benefits the Cards too much for my liking.

Miller, I think, was their third best starter. In a stacked rotation, really.

Miller throws a mid-90s fastball he can control. Strikes a lot of guys out, but a flyball pitcher, who actually profiles a lot better in Atlanta than he did in St. Louis. I think he had some nagging injuries last year, though, so if he returns to 2013 form (big K's, fewer BB's), he'll be at least a solid #2 in Atlanta. At worst, an innings-eating #3.

 

[jstewismybastardson]

Maybe at some point I could see them doing that. They would be crazy not to utilize Martin's superior defense behind the plate while his age still allows him to perform at a high level.

Martin is excellent at pitch framing and controlling the opponents running game. Great get for the Jays.

Jeff Blair ‏@SNJeffBlair 1h1 hour ago

Forget time in the infield: Jays have told Martin he will catch, not play 3B or any place else, even in spot duty.

I had seen a week ago one of the jays beat writers say that they were looking at him ... but in left field

5 years though ??? very LEAF-y deal (although applicable here ... I dont mean its ganja use induced)

 

[evolver115]

Jeff Blair ‏@SNJeffBlair 1h1 hour ago

Forget time in the infield: Jays have told Martin he will catch, not play 3B or any place else, even in spot duty.

I had seen a week ago one of the jays beat writers say that they were looking at him ... but in left field

5 years though ??? very LEAF-y deal (although applicable here ... I dont mean its ganja use induced)

It's an overpay, for sure. Martin isn't going to be living up to that contract in year four and five I would guess. The next three years, provided Rus stays healthy, the Jays will have one of the best backstops in baseball.

And that is better than any claim the leafs can stake

 

[dare2be]

With Russ gone, Pirate pitching just tanked, and so did their chances of being relevant anymore.

 

[Cobiemonster]

With Russ gone, Pirate pitching just tanked, and so did their chances of being relevant anymore.

I hope they enjoy the 18-loss A.J. Burnett

 

[Canuck eh?]

It's an overpay, for sure. Martin isn't going to be living up to that contract in year four and five I would guess. The next three years, provided Rus stays healthy, the Jays will have one of the best backstops in baseball.

And that is better than any claim the leafs can stake

Nice. You might want to consider posting on this thread.

http://www.sportshoopla.com/forums/...48-canucks-roving-maple-leafs-chronicles.html

 

[Cobiemonster]

 

[pixburgher66]

With Russ gone, Pirate pitching just tanked, and so did their chances of being relevant anymore.

That's pretty hyperbolic. Still have the best player in the league, one of the great young SP in the game, one of the best defensive teams, etc. They have a few holes to fill, and I loved and still love Russ, but he wasn't the be all end all on this team. The offense will be carried by the OF and anything else is gravy really. The rotation is what I'm worried about...but they have two great catchers on the roster now. Cervelli and Stewart are some of the best framers in the league, and both can call a game. It's the bats on those two that I question. Russ wasn't going to replicate his offensive numbers again...that I'm pretty confident of. I just hope the Pirates go out and get another SP arm and a 1B bat. Call me impatient, but I'm not comfortable w/ Pedro-Ike-Gaby in any combination. I'm just not a fan of a platoon anymore. It hasn't worked. Get an everyday guy. I'd be elated with another SP arm, 1B, and depth guys.

 

[pixburgher66]

I hope they enjoy the 18-loss A.J. Burnett

I wasn't really *thrilled* with that pick up, but W-L is an awful stat to use to describe a SP. His year last year wasn't that far off his years with the Pirates considering the circumstances. Being hurt didn't help, having a passive defense didn't help, PNC is pitcher friendly, etc. His K% is where his value is. He's likely going to be their #3 guy. Doesn't need to be a stud, just needs to eat innings and keep games close.

 

[Cobiemonster]

I wasn't really *thrilled* with that pick up, but W-L is an awful stat to use to describe a SP. His year last year wasn't that far off his years with the Pirates considering the circumstances. Being hurt didn't help, having a passive defense didn't help, PNC is pitcher friendly, etc. His K% is where his value is. He's likely going to be their #3 guy. Doesn't need to be a stud, just needs to eat innings and keep games close.

He was bad for the Phillies, trust me on that - Kyle Kendrick was a bad pitcher and even he didn't lose that many games - yes W-L is not the best stat to judge, but he did not give the team a chance to win enough

It was a complete overpayment by the Phillies

 

[Darkstone42]

With Russ gone, Pirate pitching just tanked, and so did their chances of being relevant anymore.

Statistically, a really good argument can be made that Cervelli is the best pitch framer in baseball. He's been top-10 consistently, and last year he was effectively tied for first. And framing numbers stabilize very quickly, so it's probably not even a small-sample effect. He's without a doubt elite. Stewart is probably about second tier. Martin falls somewhere between the two as a receiver. The only downgrade in run prevention is in the control of the running game.

We need more arms, but the arms we have will perform comparably to last year based entirely on the catcher situation.

He was bad for the Phillies, trust me on that - Kyle Kendrick was a bad pitcher and even he didn't lose that many games - yes W-L is not the best stat to judge, but he did not give the team a chance to win enough

It was a complete overpayment by the Phillies

Saying W-L is "not the best stat to judge" is an absurd understatement. It is, in fact, literally useless. It tells you nothing. Not one thing.

ERA tells you a little, but ERA depends a lot on defense, and the Phillies were bad defensively. The Pirates are somewhere between above average and great defensively. That will make a large difference.

There are a few things which do a good job of telling a pretty comprehensive story on pitching and what to expect moving forward: K%, BB%, HR%, and GB%. It's not perfect, but in general, guys who strike a lot of guys out, don't walk many, keep the ball in the park, and keep the ball on the ground have consistent, sustained success. There aren't a lot of guys who do all four, but most to all of them appear consistently in Cy Young conversations. You can be good as a good K/BB guy, and elite HR% guy, or an elite GB% guy. AJ happens to be very good in K%, a little below average in BB%, very good to elite in GB%, and about average (park adjusted) in HR%, which makes him a good 3-4 in most rotations.

Coming back to a more pitcher-friendly ballpark, with a far better defense which much more aggressively employs analytics to maximize outs generated and minimize baserunners allowed, with one of the best pitching coaches in the game, and a better offense to support him, AJ is likely to see significant improvement in his numbers, and, obviously in his W-L record, for whatever little that part is worth.

 

[dare2be]

That's pretty hyperbolic.Cervelli and Stewart are some of the best framers in the league, and both can call a game.

Statistically, a really good argument can be made that Cervelli is the best pitch framer in baseball. The only downgrade in run prevention is in the control of the running game.

Pitch framing is one thing, calling a game is another, which I don't believe either Cervelli or Stewart will fill that role as well as Martin did. Even if Martin were to drop off offensively from years past, he had been clutch in key situations and was one of if not the emotional leader on the team. He not only played an important role in the success of the rotation and the BP, but also in rallying the bats plenty of times.

Cervelli is unproven as a starter, especially given his durability even as a backup. Plus, I think the effect of the running game dropoff on run prevention is being understated.

 

[Darkstone42]

Pitch framing is one thing, calling a game is another, which I don't believe either Cervelli or Stewart will fill that role as well as Martin did. Even if Martin were to drop off offensively from years past, he had been clutch in key situations and was one of if not the emotional leader on the team. He not only played an important role in the success of the rotation and the BP, but also in rallying the bats plenty of times.

Cervelli is unproven as a starter, especially given his durability even as a backup. Plus, I think the effect of the running game dropoff on run prevention is being understated.

Nah, the running game is controlled a lot more by pitchers than catchers. Pirate pitchers have been good lately at holding runners in check.

But Brandon McCarthy seems to think Cervelli called a darned good game, and the Yankee pitching staff overachieved whether he was behind the dish or McCann, so there's a good shot game calling won't be that big of a downgrade, either.

 

[pixburgher66]

Pitch framing is one thing, calling a game is another, which I don't believe either Cervelli or Stewart will fill that role as well as Martin did. Even if Martin were to drop off offensively from years past, he had been clutch in key situations and was one of if not the emotional leader on the team. He not only played an important role in the success of the rotation and the BP, but also in rallying the bats plenty of times.

Cervelli is unproven as a starter, especially given his durability even as a backup. Plus, I think the effect of the running game dropoff on run prevention is being understated.

Don't think that I think Russ isn't a loss, he is. And it certainly will have an affect (effect? Why can't I do that???) on the team. I'm a fan of WAR, and that shows you there will be a difference, even though I think Russ of 2015 won't reach the Russ of 2014 in WAR, it's simply the fact that the Pirates won't have 2014 WAR back there. However, it's simply hyperbolic to think not having him somehow makes the team irrelevant. Andrew McCutchen is reaching that part of his career where people yawn when he does great things because it's simply expected now, sort of like Sid actually, and that's not fair. He's been simply incredible for three seasons now. I really think Marte has a superstar kind of year this season. He's been very close to that, just needs some consistency and more of the plate discipline he displayed in the second half this year. RF is sort of up in the air. Polanco is the real deal, just needs more polish, and Snider showed a glimpse of capability this year. At the very least he's a great bench bat. I sincerely don't expect JHay to have another year like last year. It'd be great, but...I want to be realistic. I'm not at all worried about offense, the Pirates were actually pretty good in that capacity last year, and haven't lost THAT much. Until the dust settles and we see what SP they get and how they handle 1B, I'm not comfortable thinking playoffs again, but they'll certainly be relevant in the NL Central.

Nah, the running game is controlled a lot more by pitchers than catchers. Pirate pitchers have been good lately at holding runners in check.

But Brandon McCarthy seems to think Cervelli called a darned good game, and the Yankee pitching staff overachieved whether he was behind the dish or McCann, so there's a good shot game calling won't be that big of a downgrade, either.

Yeahhhhh...simply having AJ Burnett back won't help those numbers. One of the worst at holding runners.

 

[dare2be]

I'm not worried about the offense either, but I do expect a drop off in the pitching production across the board...a snowball effect that will come from pitch selection in key situations and less runners picked off and more steal attempts...all a direct relation of Russ' absence.

This is all assuming that Cervelli can even stay healthy.

 

[pixburgher66]

I'm not worried about the offense either, but I do expect a drop off in the pitching production across the board...a snowball effect that will come from pitch selection in key situations and less runners picked off and more steal attempts...all a direct relation of Russ' absence.

This is all assuming that Cervelli can even stay healthy.

This I can understand. My issue was really with the relevance thing. I wish they could've kept Russ, and people may think I'm buying what the team is selling, but I honestly don't think there was anyway it happened. The only way the Pirates could've re-signed him was if they had done it last off-season, and I don't think Russ was looking to sign a mediocre deal at his age. My impression is that he fully intended to test the FA waters after his contract ended, and plain and simple the Pirates never could or should have given a deal like the Jays did. Reports are that the Pirates offered a 4-year deal, and even that surprised me. The Cubs didn't go beyond four, so the kicker was that fifth year...and I wouldn't have been too happy if they had done that. Mistakes with money that small markets make have a ripple Effect much greater than for large market teams. Heck, the Jays are a pretty good example of that really. They took on small money mistakes and risky players (Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera, etc) and still spend big bucks. Man that grinds my gears.

 

[pixburgher66]

Ahh yes, another example of why the rest of America is beginning to see what was already so clear to the rest of the NL Central fans. Cardinal Way, because no one else calls new teammates.