Orioles 2024 Season

[Dead2009]

Adley and Gunnar though dont come up for another 3-4 years. We have time to lock those guys up.

 

[Dead2009]

And now Bradish is out for the year. Son of a bitch.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

And now Bradish is out for the year. Son of a bitch.

If catching the Yankees is unlikely due to the pitching staff being decimated, would it make sense to "strategically tank for the 3rd wild card"? The idea is to exploit the playoff structure:

• The AL Wild Card Series is #6 at #3 and #5 at #4; in the ALCS, the winner of the #4 vs. #5 game will play against #1, while the winner of #3 vs. #6 will play against #2.
  
  
• Assuming that the Yankees are the strongest AL team on paper, it would make sense to try to avoid them in the playoffs for as long as possible. But since the Yankees and the Orioles are projected end up with the two best records in the AL, that means the most likely scenario is being the first wild card / #4 seed, and the worst thing that could happen would be trading the farm in the attempt to win the division, only to fall just short and losing even more pitchers in the process (say, due to over-working some of them).
  
  
• Even if the division could be won, a Pyrrhic victory that involves several key pitcher injuries might not be worth it, especially if the ALCS match-up is the same. And the 2nd wild card is strictly worse than the 1st wild card since that means being on the road for the ALWC.
  
  
• In that regard, the 3rd wild card is almost preferable since the projected road to the ALCS would be "ALWC at Mariners" and then "ALDS at Guardians," both of which the Orioles should be favored on paper (at least from the standpoint of current run differential). In the meantime, there's a chance that the Royals / Twins could upset the Yankees in the ALDS (or at least soften them).

"But needing to win two favorable series still gives you a lower chance of making the ALCS than needing to win one unfavorable series!" You might say. That's fair, but winning the division is required for this to be true; the way I see it, the order of preference is #1 > #6 > #4 > #5. The idea here is simply that aiming for #6 is far easier: The Orioles currently have a 9-game cushion over the Red Sox (currently the first team out) and may be able to afford attempting an "in-season mini-rebuild," namely by trading the vets (i.e. some combination of Santander / Hays / Mullins / Mountcastle / O'Hearn) for pitching and playing the prospects (to give the latter additional experience that would be useful for the postseason).

 

[Dead2009]

The Twins cant upset themselves out of a wet paper bag.

 

[UVA_Guy81]

Hopefully they play better back at home than what happened over the weekend in Houston.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

The Twins cant upset themselves out of a wet paper bag.

Hopefully they play better back at home than what happened over the weekend in Houston.

Fair point on the Twins' historical lack of success against the Yankees, but the point behind the "tank for the 3rd wild card" strategy is simply to let the Yankees be another team's problem until the ALCS. Sure, it would help if the Yankees get upset early... but such an unlikely scenario is not something to be counted on. (That being said, the current run differential suggests that the Red Sox do have a chance of bumping out the Royals or Twins... and based on their most recent series with the Yankees, maybe even pull of an upset in the ALDS.)

Now, the most recent series against the Astros clearly indicates a need for better pitching (it seems that everyone is tired due to the packed June schedule). That's why I suggested a "mini-rebuild" as an alternative strategy even if the Orioles management still deems the AL East to be winnable; after all, the goal is to maximize the probability of winning the World Series as opposed to getting the best regular-season record (for a recent example, consider the Rangers in 2023). In that regard, the recent promotion of Kjerstad is arguably one step in the right direction, as this would allow the team to determine whether they can afford to "recreate one of Santander [who is hitting free agency after 2024 anyway] / Mountcastle / O'Hearn in the aggregate."

 

[Dead2009]

I honestly don't know why MLB decided they were giving us a month and a half stretch with only 2 days off and thought it was a good idea. Of course the team is gonna be tired, they're literally traveling without days off in between.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Overreactions of the day:

• Seems that both Irvin and Saurez have turned into pumpkins in June... Until the Orioles can get more help via a trade, should they seriously consider using relay teams to cover the #3-5 spots of the rotation as a stopgap measure (and in the event of a burnt bullpen, simply "punt the next game" as needed by resting the starting lineup and conserving pitch count at any cost)?
  
  
• If it weren't for the fact that Blake Hunt doesn't seem to be hitting in AAA either (and is currently on the MiLB injured list), one could almost make an argument for having him replace McCann as the backup catcher...