Orioles 2024 Season

[Dead2009]

Adley and Gunnar though dont come up for another 3-4 years. We have time to lock those guys up.

 

[Dead2009]

And now Bradish is out for the year. Son of a bitch.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

And now Bradish is out for the year. Son of a bitch.

If catching the Yankees is unlikely due to the pitching staff being decimated, would it make sense to "strategically tank for the 3rd wild card"? The idea is to exploit the playoff structure:

• The AL Wild Card Series is #6 at #3 and #5 at #4; in the ALCS, the winner of the #4 vs. #5 game will play against #1, while the winner of #3 vs. #6 will play against #2.
  
  
• Assuming that the Yankees are the strongest AL team on paper, it would make sense to try to avoid them in the playoffs for as long as possible. But since the Yankees and the Orioles are projected end up with the two best records in the AL, that means the most likely scenario is being the first wild card / #4 seed, and the worst thing that could happen would be trading the farm in the attempt to win the division, only to fall just short and losing even more pitchers in the process (say, due to over-working some of them).
  
  
• Even if the division could be won, a Pyrrhic victory that involves several key pitcher injuries might not be worth it, especially if the ALCS match-up is the same. And the 2nd wild card is strictly worse than the 1st wild card since that means being on the road for the ALWC.
  
  
• In that regard, the 3rd wild card is almost preferable since the projected road to the ALCS would be "ALWC at Mariners" and then "ALDS at Guardians," both of which the Orioles should be favored on paper (at least from the standpoint of current run differential). In the meantime, there's a chance that the Royals / Twins could upset the Yankees in the ALDS (or at least soften them).

"But needing to win two favorable series still gives you a lower chance of making the ALCS than needing to win one unfavorable series!" You might say. That's fair, but winning the division is required for this to be true; the way I see it, the order of preference is #1 > #6 > #4 > #5. The idea here is simply that aiming for #6 is far easier: The Orioles currently have a 9-game cushion over the Red Sox (currently the first team out) and may be able to afford attempting an "in-season mini-rebuild," namely by trading the vets (i.e. some combination of Santander / Hays / Mullins / Mountcastle / O'Hearn) for pitching and playing the prospects (to give the latter additional experience that would be useful for the postseason).

 

[Dead2009]

The Twins cant upset themselves out of a wet paper bag.

 

[UVA_Guy81]

Hopefully they play better back at home than what happened over the weekend in Houston.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

The Twins cant upset themselves out of a wet paper bag.

Hopefully they play better back at home than what happened over the weekend in Houston.

Fair point on the Twins' historical lack of success against the Yankees, but the point behind the "tank for the 3rd wild card" strategy is simply to let the Yankees be another team's problem until the ALCS. Sure, it would help if the Yankees get upset early... but such an unlikely scenario is not something to be counted on. (That being said, the current run differential suggests that the Red Sox do have a chance of bumping out the Royals or Twins... and based on their most recent series with the Yankees, maybe even pull of an upset in the ALDS.)

Now, the most recent series against the Astros clearly indicates a need for better pitching (it seems that everyone is tired due to the packed June schedule). That's why I suggested a "mini-rebuild" as an alternative strategy even if the Orioles management still deems the AL East to be winnable; after all, the goal is to maximize the probability of winning the World Series as opposed to getting the best regular-season record (for a recent example, consider the Rangers in 2023). In that regard, the recent promotion of Kjerstad is arguably one step in the right direction, as this would allow the team to determine whether they can afford to "recreate one of Santander [who is hitting free agency after 2024 anyway] / Mountcastle / O'Hearn in the aggregate."

 

[Dead2009]

I honestly don't know why MLB decided they were giving us a month and a half stretch with only 2 days off and thought it was a good idea. Of course the team is gonna be tired, they're literally traveling without days off in between.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Overreactions of the day:

• Seems that both Irvin and Saurez have turned into pumpkins in June... Until the Orioles can get more help via a trade, should they seriously consider using relay teams to cover the #3-5 spots of the rotation as a stopgap measure (and in the event of a burnt bullpen, simply "punt the next game" as needed by resting the starting lineup and conserving pitch count at any cost)?
  
  
• If it weren't for the fact that Blake Hunt doesn't seem to be hitting in AAA either (and is currently on the MiLB injured list), one could almost make an argument for having him replace McCann as the backup catcher...

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Overreactions of the day [during the 6/25 game]

... and somehow the Orioles are now alone in first place in the AL East thanks to the timely cold streak by the Yankees. Furthermore, Kjerstad is making an immediate impact (with the caveat of small sample size so far), and the suggested "just try to win today and worry about tomorrow later" strategy actually worked tonight (if only barely). They seriously need to figure out how to upgrade pitching, though.

 

[dcrising]

I am not a fan of kimbrel's high wire act. good team win today. agreed on upgrading pitching,

 

[navamind]

Baltimore Orioles Top 45 Prospects

This is one of the best handful of farm systems in baseball, with the vast majority of the prospects who project to have everyday futures (or close to it) on the position player side, while the system’…

blogs.fangraphs.com

 

[navamind]

I am not a fan of kimbrel's high wire act. good team win today. agreed on upgrading pitching,

Kardiac Kimbrel was a rollercoaster in the 2018 playoffs. Never blew any games in that postseason, but most of the games he appeared in got rather nerve wracking and he occasionally got bailed out by some nice plays, such as this:

 

[dcrising]

Kardiac Kimbrel was a rollercoaster in the 2018 playoffs. Never blew any games in that postseason, but most of the games he appeared in got rather nerve wracking and he occasionally got bailed out by some nice plays, such as this:

Yeah. The only reason he is on the orioles is because of the mountain's Tommy John surgery

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Sigh... Irvin should either have been replaced when the score was still 3-1 (to stop the bleeding early), or left in to be his own mop-up reliever until his pitch count reaches ~100 (if the goal is save the bullpen by sacrificing this game). Given the benefit of hindsight, the latter option might have been better? Regardless, the numbers suggest that Irvin has been both unlucky and regressing in June (the 0.365 BABIP is unusually high, but this can be partly explained by the 44.6% hard hit percentage).

Presumably, Kremer will most likely take Irvin's rotation spot when the former comes back; the interesting question is who to send back down. (With Irvin being out of options, moving him to the bullpen and optioning Vespi or Baker seems like an obvious choice... until one realizes that Irvin's career stats as a reliever are somehow worse than when he's starting. Either way, this is why I raised the "relay team" idea for the back end of the rotation: Irvin may still be serviceable if limited to 3 innings, and having two guys "job share" for the #5 starter spot may still be tolerable without destroying the bullpen...)

 

[hattersgonnahate]

On a related side note, this series does suggest that being willing to "punt every 3rd / 4th game" can be a viable strategy for living with the unreliable pitching, at least for the short term. After all, the logic is not unlike that of gerrymandering: You're trying to improve the chances of winning a majority of the match-ups by re-allocating resources away from a small number of match-ups that you're willing to sacrifice.

(To clarify: If the score of the current game holds, the Orioles would have scored 21 runs while allowing 19 over the last 4 games, which should produce a 2-2 split on average. In that regard, being willing to "sacrifice the last game" by using the 4 higher-leverage relievers on consecutive days essentially stole a win, and this kind of discrepancy can really add up over time. In fact, I'd advocate for applying this strategy in the postseason since there are extra rest days...)

 

[ThomasTomasz]

Cade Povich isn’t it. Kremer and Suarez are able to handle 4/5 starter duties, but we desperately need that #3 starter who can slot into a playoff start. The frustrating thing is, that starter isn’t really available right now. Crochet will likely be on some sort of innings limit. The Mets look like buyers, so Severino isn’t going to be moved. I’m not a Fedde fan. The Marlins starters all look like they have warts they didn’t have last year.

The magic player might become available if the Rangers choose to sell and they make Scherzer available, but I’m not holding my breath there.

I’m most concerned about getting that #3 for this year only, and worry about next year in the off-season.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Cade Povich isn’t it. Kremer and Suarez are able to handle 4/5 starter duties, but we desperately need that #3 starter who can slot into a playoff start. The frustrating thing is, that starter isn’t really available right now. Crochet will likely be on some sort of innings limit. The Mets look like buyers, so Severino isn’t going to be moved. I’m not a Fedde fan. The Marlins starters all look like they have warts they didn’t have last year.

The magic player might become available if the Rangers choose to sell and they make Scherzer available, but I’m not holding my breath there.

I’m most concerned about getting that #3 for this year only, and worry about next year in the off-season.

Hence my two suggestions of "using a relay team to cover the #5 spot" and "punt every nth game" as a short-term workaround, since a loss by any margin counts the same in the standings. If the concern is that intentionally "punting" / "sacrificing" certain games would depress turnout, they could always limit such a strategy to road games. (This makes more sense for the goal of resting the better pitchers in the bullpen anyway, as you would only need to pitch 8 innings in a road loss; for an almost-example, consider today's game.)

As for trading for pitching, this is why I raised the idea of "giving up quality for quality" by swapping Santander for a starter as a means to avoid giving up top prospects for a rental (since the Orioles should be able to re-create most of the RF/DH production via Kjerstad).

 

[ThomasTomasz]

Hence my two suggestions of "using a relay team to cover the #5 spot" and "punt every nth game" as a short-term workaround, since a loss by any margin counts the same in the standings. If the concern is that intentionally "punting" / "sacrificing" certain games would depress turnout, they could always limit such a strategy to road games. (This makes more sense for the goal of resting the better pitchers in the bullpen anyway, as you would only need to pitch 8 innings in a road loss; for an almost-example, consider today's game.)

As for trading for pitching, this is why I raised the idea of "giving up quality for quality" by swapping Santander for a starter as a means to avoid giving up top prospects for a rental (since the Orioles should be able to re-create most of the RF/DH production via Kjerstad).

I do think there is merit to doing that, but you can’t rely on that strategy long-term. It’s basically a bullpen day every 4th/5th day, or on an early travel day. I don’t think that fans would stop coming to games because of it though. I do think that we’re going to be making a couple bullpen acquisitions anyway, so if they have to stretch the bullpen now, those additions will help rest the current arms until we get to the playoffs. You also can’t rely on Coulombe or Felix being ready by the playoffs either. One thing that is important to note that, even if they are healing ahead of schedule, they won’t be facing AA or AAA players in rehab, as their seasons are over, so it will be workouts and simulated games at the complex.

I wouldn’t have a problem selling Santander for a rental pitcher in an even swap, but I just don’t see other teams with the depth willing to make that happen. I think we also have enough data on Elias to show that, while this is still a very analytical organization, he also has put an emphasis on clubhouse leadership and chemistry, and I don’t see him making a huge veteran subtraction. I could be wrong, and I know I would very heavily consider a swap, I just dont know what team is going to be able to make that happen.

 

[ThomasTomasz]

Toronto does need offense though, but I’d hate to send Santander to Toronto and still have to face him. And there is no guarantee that Toronto doesn’t become a seller altogether.

 

[UVA_Guy81]

I still think we should take a shot at Cal Quantrill. Having a sub 4 ERA in Colorado is impressive within itself. Don't know what it'd take to pry him away. And as for relievers, take a shot at Tanner Banks from the White Sox, along with Cronin and Scott from the Marlins.