Orioles 2024 Season

[skinz2winz]

A much needed win today to send the team to break. Nice 1st round pick of Honeycutt today as well. I'm sure they will add more arms through the draft. Hoping for starter and BP help before the deadline.

 

[UVA_Guy81]

Maybe the truth is actually somewhere in the middle, i.e. "this team is probably above average, but is unlikely to go far in the postseason as things currently stand"? After all, while one could blame the strenuous June schedule and pitcher injuries (which is arguably correlated with the former) for the recent slump, the extent of drop-off is quite stark:

• Start of season through 6/20: 49-25 (0.662), 390 RS (5.27 / game), 265 RA (3.58 / game)
• 6/21 through tonight: 8-11 (0.421), 76 RS (4.00 / game), 114 RA (6.00 / game)

With that in mind, let's revisit the "in-season mini-rebuild" idea:

• Previously, my line of reasoning was that "tanking for the 3rd wild card" might make if the Yankees are running away with the AL East, as this would ensure avoiding them until the ALCS. However, this strategy might not work anymore, as it looks like the Guardians may stay ahead of the Yankees, while the Astros may overtake the Mariners. While the Orioles are still favored to win their regular-season tiebreaker against the Twins, Red Sox, Royals, and Mariners, it looks like the 3rd wild card / #6 seed would actually have the hardest path now (imagine ALWC at Astros, then ALDS at Yankees, then ALCS at Guardians).

If we consider recency bias, the "descending order by wOBA since June" default lineup using the current roster would look like the following:

Possible ideas based on this:

• Trade Mountcastle (if Mayo is considered a 1B/3B)
  
  
• Send down Cowser (due to his slump since June) and call up Norby as the backup 2B/LF/RF (since the CF position is still backed up by Hays and Mateo)
  
  
• Call up Holliday again when he's ready? (He also bats left, though, which means that he might not be a direct replacement for one of Urías / Mateo).

I say trade Santander if there's not going to be an effort to resign him. Already have a glut of outfielders waiting to get regular play and that'd clear up the logjam a little bit and get back a decent pitcher in return.

 

[Dead2009]

I don't see Holliday getting called up again until September when the rosters expand.

 

[ThomasTomasz]

This is wild. Hard to believe that we actually have a great development system now.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

[Another bullpen combustion]

Sigh... This is exactly what I meant yesterday by "wasting Webb and Kimbrel with a large lead could cost the next game."

(Read: Imagine deploying Smith yesterday and Webb today instead, and not having Kimbrel pitch on consecutive days when he had already blown one save the previous day.)

 

[dcrising]

offense was disjointed too.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Can't keep relying on being bailed out by the Yankees' opponents, but we'll take it...

 

[UVA_Guy81]

Something happened from since that west coast trip that has them all out of sorts. 4-10 since that 4-2 road trip to Seattle and Oakland. And that horrible blunder yesterday with Urias was inexcusable.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Something happened from since that west coast trip that has them all out of sorts. 4-10 since that 4-2 road trip to Seattle and Oakland. And that horrible blunder yesterday with Urias was inexcusable.

The bigger concern is that this is now an extended slump:

• July 2024 would be the first time since September 2022 where the Orioles would have a non-winning full calendar month during the regular season.
  
  
• Since 6/20, the Orioles have gone 12-18 (0.400), scoring 124 runs (4.13 / game) while giving up 170 (5.67 / game)... and they were actually "lucky" by a game or two from the standpoint of Pythagorean Expectation depending on which version of the formula you use. If we assume a 2005-like collapse by extrapolating this pace to the remaining games, the result would be a 84-78 record, which is probably not enough for the 3rd wildcard.

So, I would totally understand it if the Orioles management decide to just punt the season and prepare for 2025 instead, as much as I'd prefer not to see that happen. That being said, a more realistic baseline might be assuming 0.500-ball for the rest of the season, which would result in a 90-72 record and is probably enough for a wildcard. Perhaps hedging with a "both buy and sell" strategy (i.e. try to trade for pitchers with more than one year of team control while off-loading certain veterans in order to give more playing time to the position player prospects) might work?

 

[UVA_Guy81]

The bigger concern is that this is now an extended slump:

• July 2024 would be the first time since September 2022 where the Orioles would have a non-winning full calendar month during the regular season.
  
  
• Since 6/20, the Orioles have gone 12-18 (0.400), scoring 124 runs (4.13 / game) while giving up 170 (5.67 / game)... and they were actually "lucky" by a game or two from the standpoint of Pythagorean Expectation depending on which version of the formula you use. If we assume a 2005-like collapse by extrapolating this pace to the remaining games, the result would be a 84-78 record, which is probably not enough for the 3rd wildcard.

So, I would totally understand it if the Orioles management decide to just punt the season and prepare for 2025 instead, as much as I'd prefer not to see that happen. That being said, a more realistic baseline might be assuming 0.500-ball for the rest of the season, which would result in a 90-72 record and is probably enough for a wildcard. Perhaps hedging with a "both buy and sell" strategy (i.e. try to trade for pitchers with more than one year of team control while off-loading certain veterans in order to give more playing time to the position player prospects) might work?

I definitely don’t see them doing that. With the lead now and the Yankees having their own struggles, I feel like they’re going to go for it. As for any trades that happen, well your guess is as good as mine at this point. I wouldn’t be opposed to Mullins leaving as he just hasn’t been the same offensively since he got off the IL a year ago.
Pitching is the biggest concern as I don’t really trust anyone on the staff right now to get the job done other than Burnes (who I hope Rubenstein offers him a blank check when he gets the final portion of the deal to get the team completed).

 

[skinz2winz]

Not a fan of the Rogers trade. Kremer is a better pitcher. You gave up Stowers and Norby for a 2-9 starter.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Not a fan of the Rogers trade. Kremer is a better pitcher. You gave up Stowers and Norby for a 2-9 starter.

I would place this in the same category as the "Hays for Dominguez + Pache" trade, in the sense that it's merely a marginal upgrade at a reasonable cost (yet another "meh" trade, if you will):

• Stowers isn't even considered a ranked prospect anymore (but is blocked by Kjerstad et. al.), while Norby was actually downgraded on Fangraphs this year (he was listed as a 45 FV prospect / #7 in the Orioles system in 2023, but became 40 FV / #19 by 2024). If the idea is to "sell high" on the two of them while they still have value, the move would make some sense.
  
  
• Advanced stats suggest that Rogers might actually be marginally better than Kremer from the standpoint of expected ERA. And even if that's not the case, treating Rogers as a #5 starter means that Albert Suárez can return to the bullpen. Based on recent performance by Rogers and Suárez (particularly in July), that would probably still improve both the rotation and bullpen slightly (provided that the Orioles are willing to DFA Irvin when adding Rogers to the active roster-- although I could see them optioning Burch Smith instead).

 

[Dead2009]

Irvin did get DFAed btw, and Holliday is getting called back up as well.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Irvin did get DFAed btw, and Holliday is getting called back up as well.

Seems that these two moves were a side effect of all the last-minute trades. Let's attempt a recap of all the moves from the last 5 days:

• Out: Austin Hays OF, Kyle Stowers OF, Connor Norby 2B/OF; Jackson Baumeister SP (A+, 40+ FV per Fangraphs), Seth Johnson SP (AA, 40+ FV), Mac Horvath 3B/2B (A+, 40+ FV), Trey McGough RP (AAA, 35+ FV), Matthew Etzel OF (AA, unranked); Cash or PTBNL
  
  
• In: Zach Eflin SP, Trevor Rogers SP, Seranthony Dominguez RP, Gregory Soto RP, Eloy Jiménez DH/LF, Austin Slater OF, Cristian Pache OF; Livan Soto SS/2B (AAA)

Overall, it looks like the Orioles organization was trying for incremental pitching upgrades without giving up top prospects:

• Rotation: Eflin + Rogers replace Suárez + Povich (not the kind of upgrade that Orioles fans are hoping for, but still better than nothing).
  
  
• Bullpen: Dominguez replaces Baker, while Suárez replaces Irvin; the question is who else would be removed from the active roster for Gregory Soto (I guess they could option Burch Smith).
  
  
• Position players:
  • Jiménez will probably be the right-hitting half of the DH platoon or a PH, while one of Slater / Pache might be kept for the outfield defensive sub role.
    
    
  • Livan Soto is probably going to be stashed in AAA as middle infield depth; presumably, the Orioles accepted a salary dump somewhere in order to improve the return or decrease the cost in terms of prospects?
    
    
  • Assuming that Blake Hunt is being called up to temporarily replace James McCann (who will probably go on the 10-day IL?), the news that Terrin Vavra and Jackson Holliday are being called up means that 3 position players will need to be removed from the active roster in the meantime. My guess is that they probably cancel the call-up of Vavra, one of Slater / Pache is DFA'ed, and the last roster spot will need to be freed by either optioning Kjerstad or DFA'ing both Slater and Pache?

 

[skinz2winz]

Irvin did get DFAed btw, and Holliday is getting called back up as well.

Bring up Mayo also!

 

[ThomasTomasz]

I just feel like we improved the margins of our roster, and while we will make it to the post-season, I’m just not sure how this team stacks up pitching-wise.

Eflin and Rogers are not going to be the stopper you need at the #3 starter spot come playoff time. And maybe that player wasn’t available, but I’m not a fan of shipping out five prospects for these two just because of their control, and to get us to the post-season. The wild card is Rogers and if the Orioles see something they can fix, but even as all of the Marlins pitchers struggled this year but Weathers, the ENTIRE system of pitching flourished from 2022-2023 under Kim Ng, and Rogers struggled.

The bullpen just needs more than Seranthony Dominguez and Gregory Soto. But again…….we’re playing the control game here. Both are under contract through next year. Would have loved to add Tanner Scott to this, and quite frankly, I’d have given them another decent prospect to get him to come over in the deal for Rogers if that’s what it would have taken.

And dont get me started on Eloy Jimenez. If that was their goal the entire time……LOL. Why didn’t they just trade a DSL flier or two to the White Sox a couple days earlier for Tommy Pham, who is a better hitter this year and can actually play the field, and I wouldn’t have any problems putting him in LF with his experience.

 

[ThomasTomasz]

Bring up Mayo also!

Mayo can’t buy a ticket up here, and I don’t know why. I’d rather have him than Eloy at this point.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

I just feel like we improved the margins of our roster, and while we will make it to the post-season, I’m just not sure how this team stacks up pitching-wise. [...]

And dont get me started on Eloy Jimenez. If that was their goal the entire time……LOL. Why didn’t they just trade a DSL flier or two to the White Sox a couple days earlier for Tommy Pham, who is a better hitter this year and can actually play the field, and I wouldn’t have any problems putting him in LF with his experience.

Mayo can’t buy a ticket up here, and I don’t know why. I’d rather have him than Eloy at this point.

The impression I am getting is that the Orioles organization decided to thread the needle between the two extremes of "going all in this year" (i.e. they didn't want to passively overpay in terms of prospects due to everyone needing pitchers) and "intentionally punting the 2024 season for the future." Regarding Eloy Jiménez, I am confused by the move as well, and my guess is that the Orioles are probably testing him as a low-risk stop-gap solution for a right-hitting DH / bench bat:

• If they view Jiménez as a bounce-back candidate and are concerned about the possibility that Mayo's hitting could struggle at the major league level initially (like Holliday did), then this move could make sense. After all, Jiménez can still be easily replaced by Mayo at any time if this doesn't work out; there is no long-term financial risk involved since the 2025-26 club options ($16.5M / $18.5M) most likely will not be picked up.
  
  
• Another consideration is that the Orioles may be attempting a mild form of service time manipulation: Since they were pretty much "forced" to promote Jackson Holliday due to the injury of Jorge Mateo, there is a possibility that Holliday's rookie eligibility would be burned due to reaching 130 regular season at-bats in 2024 (he is currently at 34 ABs, which leaves 96 ABs for 54 games). I'd imagine that this may give the Orioles organization some incentive to strategically stash Mayo for 2025 in case Holliday won't be eligible to earn them a draft pick via winning the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2025?

 

[Dead2009]

Fitting that Jackson Hollidays first HR is a grand slam at home.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

• Another consideration is that the Orioles may be attempting a mild form of service time manipulation: Since they were pretty much "forced" to promote Jackson Holliday due to the injury of Jorge Mateo, there is a possibility that Holliday's rookie eligibility would be burned due to reaching 130 regular season at-bats in 2024 (he is currently at 34 ABs, which leaves 96 ABs for 54 games). I'd imagine that this may give the Orioles organization some incentive to strategically stash Mayo for 2025 in case Holliday won't be eligible to earn them a draft pick via winning the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2025?

Correction: Actually it looks like Jackson Holliday's rookie eligibility will likely be burned regardless, as the cutoff thresholds are apparently "130 ABs or 45 days on the active roster" (whichever occurs first).

The interesting part is that Liván Soto will apparently be called up to replace Westburg after the latter's hand injury. Presumably, that means Urías will become the interim 3B starter, while Soto will be the backup for all non-1B infield positions? (Since Soto is actually a shortstop at the AAA level, I'd imagine that this wouldn't sacrifice defense too much.)