Orioles 2024 Season

[skinz2winz]

Rogers = Loss

 

[UVA_Guy81]

Rogers = Loss

Also doesn’t help when the offense can’t score runs.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Rogers = Loss

Also doesn’t help when the offense can’t score runs.

Trying very hard to put a positive spin on this:

• On the bright side, this could qualify as a "scheduled punt game" since David Peterson has the lowest ERA among the current Mets rotation, and this game would provide yet another data point that Rogers needs to be considered a project to fix for 2025 (as opposed to being a "ready option" for the remainder of the 2024 season).
  
  
• The fact that Povich's spot start pushed back everyone else by a day meant that Burnes would get to pitch against the Astros, while Rogers's start that's originally scheduled for the 8/29 (@ LAD) would be pushed back to 8/30 (@ COL) and could theoretically be skipped because of the 8/26 off day.

 

[skinz2winz]

Trying very hard to put a positive spin on this:

• On the bright side, this could qualify as a "scheduled punt game" since David Peterson has the lowest ERA among the current Mets rotation, and this game would provide yet another data point that Rogers needs to be considered a project to fix for 2025 (as opposed to being a "ready option" for the remainder of the 2024 season).
  
  
• The fact that Povich's spot start pushed back everyone else by a day meant that Burnes would get to pitch against the Astros, while Rogers's start that's originally scheduled for the 8/29 (@ LAD) would be pushed back to 8/30 (@ COL) and could theoretically be skipped because of the 8/26 off day.

Rogers doesn't help the team now and considering what you gave up to get him, this trade was a failure. Who cares about 2025, our window of opportunity is now and Elias knows that. Poor job of getting this team help now. I know, injuries are not predictable but that shouldn't prevent him from doing his job vs dumpster diving.

 

[Dead2009]

Also doesn’t help when the offense can’t score runs.

We also shouldnt have to constantly be playing catch up every time he pitches, either.

 

[Dead2009]

x.com

x.com

God fucking damn it

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Aug. 20 Roster Moves: Akin to paternity list, Eflin to 15-day IL, Povich and Tate recalled

God fucking damn it

Rogers doesn't help the team now and considering what you gave up to get him, this trade was a failure. Who cares about 2025, our window of opportunity is now and Elias knows that. Poor job of getting this team help now. I know, injuries are not predictable but that shouldn't prevent him from doing his job vs dumpster diving.

Make that "was," because this team now has a whole rotation on the IL... as the saying goes, "pitchers are now the new running backs." While I do agree with the sentiment that the front office could have been more active during off-season free agency (which means that the blame can be partly placed on the former ownership), I can totally understand why Elias didn't want to "go all-in" by trading the entire farm, especially given the benefit of hindsight.

If the concern is about "not wasting the one-year rental of Burnes," the issue is that giving up Ortiz and Hall for him is already a sunk cost: You can either lose only Burnes, or lose Holliday / Kjerstad / Mayo / Basallo, etc. as well (whatever other teams were reportedly asking in return for their top pitchers) and end up not winning the world series this year anyway. To play devil's advocate, perhaps a better hypothetical question is whether Elias should have considered the unthinkable option of flipping Burnes to another team at the trade deadline. After all, "intentionally punting the 2024 season" at the trade deadline in order to prepare for 2025 would be one way to reduce the sunk cost of departing free agents if you really wanted to do that... and the resulting rotation would be practically the same as what this team currently has remaining (with Rodriguez and Eflin also sidelined).

 

[Dead2009]

If Burnes goes down before the playoffs, we're done.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

If Burnes goes down before the playoffs, we're done.

Maybe it's time for another comparison with 2023:

Time frame (2024)	Record / Win %	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Run differential	Expected record	"Luck"
As of 6/19 (after 73 games)	48-25, 0.658 (1.5 GB)	373 (5.11 / game)	259 (3.55 / game)	+113 (Yankees: +125)	48-25	0 games
Games #74-126 (53 games)	25-28, 0.472	260 (4.91 / game)	285 (5.38 / game)	-24 (Yankees: -9)	24-29	+1 game
As of 8/19 (after 126 games)	73-53, 0.579 (0.5 GB)	633 (5.03 / game)	544 (4.32 / game)	+89 (Yankees: +116)	72-54	+1 game

Time frame (2023)	Record / Win %	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Run differential	Expected record	"Luck"
As of 6/21 (after 73 games)	45-28, 0.616 (1.5 GB)	360 (4.93 / game)	325 (4.45 / game)	+35 (Rays: +146)	40-33	+5 games
Games #74-126 (53 games)	33-20, 0.622	262 (4.94 / game)	214 (4.03 / game)	+48 (Rays: +24)	31-22	+2 games
As of 8/23 (after 126 games)	78-48, 0.619 (2.0 GA)	622 (4.94 / game)	539 (4.28 / game)	+83 (Rays: +170)	71-55	+7 games

Back in June, pretty much everyone was in agreement that "this is our year": The 2024 team was clearly better than the 2023 version. But it seemed that losing Bradish might have been the turning point, and the numbers match the perception that the 2024 team got worse due to the sheer number of injuries (while the 2023 team improved in terms of pitching over a similar time frame). This is why I said that "I'm keeping my expectations low" for the remainder of the season...

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Maybe it's time for another comparison with 2023 [...]

Correction: There was a copy-and-paste error in the "2023" table (after 73 games, the 2023 Orioles were 5 games behind the Rays). But notice that the 2023 Rays lost 7 games relative to the Orioles over Games #74-126 (they went 26-27 in that stretch despite achieving a +24 run differential), while the 2024 Orioles somehow gained a game over the Yankees over a similar time frame despite a worse run differential.

I guess that's why some people are saying "Parity is coming to the MLB for the same reason as that of the NFL: Injuries galore!" And by corollary: If pitching injuries are so common / unavoidable (?) these days, the strategy of "diversification" by going for quantity over quality is totally understandable...

 

[Dead2009]

BTW Cole Irvin is back, YAY

 

[hattersgonnahate]

BTW Cole Irvin is back, YAY

Overreaction of the day: Should have DFA'ed Kimbrel to open up a roster spot for Irvin's spot start (given the depleted bullpen)? Dillon Tate might actually be a better choice at this point...

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Overreaction of the day: Should have DFA'ed Kimbrel to open up a roster spot for Irvin's spot start (given the depleted bullpen)? Dillon Tate might actually be a better choice at this point...

Sigh... Looks like the entire bullpen regressed recently due to overuse (since Hyde didn't want to use Kimbrel and Soto in higher-leverage situations)? In retrospect, maybe they should have treated today as a punt game and simply put in Soto instead, as the result would probably be the same (while Dominguez is now definitely unavailable for Thursday).

Again, as I have mentioned earlier: Time to keep the bullpen fresh by re-activating the Nofolk shuttle (by cycling through pitchers with options as often as needed)? Possible candidates for using this strategy may include: Smith and Selby on the current major league roster, plus Baker / Tate / Vespi (if his 5-option limit for the season hasn't been reached yet) / Zimmermann (if you have to) from AAA.

 

[Dead2009]

Theyre being overused because A. the starters arent pitching past the 5th inning or B. it's a blowout and they have to come in. We need a stretch of games where the starters are going 7 strong innings OR get the rare complete game. That hasnt happened in a long while.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Theyre being overused because A. the starters arent pitching past the 5th inning or B. it's a blowout and they have to come in. We need a stretch of games where the starters are going 7 strong innings OR get the rare complete game. That hasnt happened in a long while.

... and it probably won't happen any time soon, which is why we are seeing a vicious cycle. This is exactly why I keep raising the concept of "scheduled punt games" as a lesser evil: When this team's pitching is not good enough to be competitive in every single game (partly due to the sheer number of injuries), you have to be willing to "lose the battle to win the war," specifically by managing certain games with the mindset of "saving the rest of the bullpen to live to fight another day."

For an example, consider the Mets series that has just happened, where the Orioles only picked up one game despite outscoring their opponents 15-13:

• 8/19: Suppose that the Orioles decided to intentionally concede Game 1 after Rogers gave up 3 runs in the first four innings, specifically by leaving in Keegan Akin in the 9th inning, or using Craig Kimbrel / Gregory Soto for the remainder of the game. They probably still would have lost, but that means saving Seranthony Dominguez for a more winnable game later (remember, he has just given up a home run on 8/18 and probably needs a day off).
  
  
• 8/20: In the 8th inning of Game 2, Dillon Tate could have been deployed in lieu of Burch Smith, considering the recent regression of Smith's performance (presumably from being used on three consecutive days). Unless Tate also gives up 4 runs or worse, Yennier Cano probably wouldn't be needed here at all, while Kimbrel / Soto could be used again for the 9th inning depending on the score. The result is most likely a tighter win.
  
  
• 8/21: Making the changes suggested above means entering Game 3 with Smith, Cano, AND Dominguez sufficiently rested. They might have a chance to win in extra innings, and whoever among them isn't used in this game would be available against the Astros the next day.

 

[Dead2009]

I just want to believe this rotation can get back to where it was in the beginning of the year. Outside of Tyler Wells the rotation was dominant for the most part, yes even Irvin. What they need to do is move Rogers to the bullpen and give Irvin that spot back if he can get back to his spring form and not the one where he was giving up 4 runs in the bullpen each game. Not to mention the rosters expand in a few weeks so maybe they can call someone else up and get us to a 6 man rotation OR call up one of the starters from AAA and put them in the pen to eat up some innings.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Time to keep the bullpen fresh by re-activating the "Nofolk shuttle" (by cycling through pitchers with options as often as needed)? Possible candidates for using this strategy may include: Smith and Selby on the current major league roster, plus Baker / Tate / Vespi (if his 5-option limit for the season hasn't been reached yet) / Zimmermann (if you have to) from AAA.

I just want to believe this rotation can get back to where it was in the beginning of the year. Outside of Tyler Wells the rotation was dominant for the most part, yes even Irvin. What they need to do is move Rogers to the bullpen and give Irvin that spot back if he can get back to his spring form and not the one where he was giving up 4 runs in the bullpen each game. Not to mention the rosters expand in a few weeks so maybe they can call someone else up and get us to a 6 man rotation OR call up one of the starters from AAA and put them in the pen to eat up some innings.

Looks like both your prediction and mine were partially correct based on the 8/22 roster moves:

• 3B/1B Emmanuel Rivera replaces INF Liván Soto (okay, this is random... I guess Rivera is being treated as a stop-gap fill-in for Coby Mayo?)
  
  
• RP Nick Vespi and RP Matt Bowman replace SP Trevor Rogers and RP Colin Selby (Bruce Zimmermann DFA'ed to add Bowman to the 40-man roster)

This suggests that the current rotation will be Burnes / Povich / Suárez / Kremer / Irvin for the time being (which is coincidentally 1-3-2-4-5 from an advanced stats standpoint), while Vespi and Bowman were presumably part of the Norfolk shuttle for restocking the bullpen. The fact that Zimmermann was DFA'ed does mean that there will be no #6 starter based on a Triple-A call-up besides the possibility of Rogers, though, as Povich is already up while McDermott is still on the minor league IL. Let's see what happens when Eflin and/or Rodriguez returns (I'd expect the Orioles to send down one of the interchangeable relievers and move Irvin back to the bullpen).

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Yikes... If even Burnes is turning into a pumpkin, even limping into the postseason may be a question mark.

To play devil's advocate, perhaps a better hypothetical question is whether Elias should have considered the unthinkable option of flipping Burnes to another team at the trade deadline.

Obviously there's no chance that they would have done this, but the crazy part is that selling high on Burnes might actually have made sense in retrospect:

• 1st half: 118 2/3 IP in 19 starts (6.25 IP / start), 2.43 ERA
  
  
• 2nd half: 40 2/3 IP in 7 starts (5.80 IP / start), 5.75 ERA (small sample, but still concerning when this includes two consecutive explosions).

If this is another case where fatigue due to overuse is the main explanation (remember, the All-Star "break" wasn't a break for Burnes), it might actually make sense to bring Rogers back up for a spot start at some point... again as a "punt game" to rest the remainder of the rotation (to avoid burning the bullpen, you'd leave in every pitcher for as long as possible regardless of the score, and use only long relievers in the game that's intended to be sacrificed).

 

[Dead2009]

So apparently the Dodgers are up next....odds of us getting our asses kicked and swept?

 

[hattersgonnahate]

So apparently the Dodgers are up next....odds of us getting our asses kicked and swept?

~20% per ESPN's model as of today (54.1% x 57.3% x 66.0%). In all seriousness, this past week certainly could have been worse, as a 3-4 record is what you "should" expect when scoring 28 runs while giving up 32. In fact, it looks like this team is still on pace for a 1st or 2nd wildcard spot even though winning the division is starting to appear unlikely (short of somehow sweeping the Yankees during the 9/24-26 series): Extrapolating the 23-25 (0.479) record since July to the remaining 30 games would mean going 14-16, for a final record of 90-72.


Other thoughts:

• Assuming that Eflin returns on 9/1, do you free up a roster spot by sending down Burch Smith (given his recent regression) while simply making Irvin the long reliever again?
  
  
• It looks like hitting was also part of the problem in August in addition to pitching: The Orioles were ranked 6th in OPS in July but 17th in August as of yesterday, versus 24th in ERA in July and 23rd in August so far. In particular, Jiménez, O'Hearn, and Holliday (among others) seem to be experiencing a slump recently...