Orioles 2024 Season

[hattersgonnahate]

I'm surprised they didn't give [Kimbrel] the save considering Irvin got one the other day.

Irvin got a save because there's a special condition for holding a lead of any size by finishing the last 3+ innings of a game, which rarely happens in practice (for a famous example, there's Madison Bumgarner's 5-inning relief appearance in Game 7 of the 2014 World Series).

In contrast, Kimbrel was not eligible for a save since he entered the game in a non-save situation, for which pitching for only one inning isn't enough. (A 9-run lead is too large, as the largest lead that can qualify for a conventional save situation is 5 with the bases loaded-- as the potential tying run would be on deck in this hypothetical scenario.)

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Oof, 6-1 White Sox... Unfortunate, but the reality is that you can't expect a sweep even against the worst MLB team in decades due to random variance (even the Yankees lost to them by a score of 12-2 once, while the Guardians are 5-5 versus the White Sox this season so far).

Anyway, maybe they should put in Kimbrel again for mop-up purposes? (EDIT: I guess Soto also works?)

 

[UVA_Guy81]

Really wish we could hit with guys on base. Too many guys want to be the hero. Just wish these guys would go back to the basics and realize that it's okay if you walk or get singles. It always seems like a strikeout or a pop up with guys left on base every inning because they're trying to do too much. We don't need everyone to be the hero and try to get on SportsCenter with a homerun.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Really wish we could hit with guys on base. Too many guys want to be the hero. Just wish these guys would go back to the basics and realize that it's okay if you walk or get singles. It always seems like a strikeout or a pop up with guys left on base every inning because they're trying to do too much. We don't need everyone to be the hero and try to get on SportsCenter with a homerun.

Seems that Mullins heard you (with the technicality that both of his hits tonight so far are home runs)?

(In all seriousness, Mullins is actually the 4th best hitter on the team since August from the standpoint of OPS. Interestingly enough, the reverse-OPS ranking also suggests that Adley Rutschman should probably be rested more often and bat 9th like James McCann... or maybe 8th, based on similar reasoning as certain NL teams before the adoption of the universal DH.)

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Since catching up with the Yankees for the division is starting to appear unlikely, there is one interesting scenario that has a realistic chance of happening after the 9/24-26 series @ NYY:

1. Suppose that the Yankees have already clinched the AL East by then (or have a magic number of no greater than 2), AND
2. The Orioles have a sufficiently-large lead over the Royals (preferably at 3+), AND
3. The Twins have a similar record as the Royals (say, no more than 1-2 games away);

Then the Orioles may have a perverse incentive to tank one or more games against the Twins to help them overtake the Royals, if the Orioles feel that the Twins would be an "easier" match-up in the ALWC (based on historical performance and this season's run differential).

Obviously, there's a real risk that this could backfire, such as dropping to a lower wild card spot... hence the necessity of the second clause, to ensure that the Orioles would not lose the 1st wild card spot by gifting the Twins a few wins. Besides, the question could easily be moot by then since the Royals have a real chance of overtaking the Orioles as well, thus making the series against the Twins necessary for defending the 1st wild card spot (I doubt that they would want to consider tanking for the 3rd wild card from the 2nd wild card spot, since playing the Astros on the road is arguably even worse).

 

[chillerdab]

Another option, which seems even less likely but would definitely solve most of these problems, is if the Orioles could break out of their collective hitting slumps and start fucking mashing.

 

[Dead2009]

The Orioles have put me into a deep sports depression. At least the Ravens are here to get me excited again and then crash at the end.

 

[chillerdab]

Likewise. They look bad. At lesst you have the Ravens. The Commanders are bad, and the Caps have been on the way down since 2019.

 

[Dead2009]

I also have the Sharks but they're in rebuild mode. My NL team is the Diamondbacks and they've been on fire since the All Star Break.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Another option, which seems even less likely but would definitely solve most of these problems, is if the Orioles could break out of their collective hitting slumps and start fucking mashing.

The Orioles have put me into a deep sports depression. At least the Ravens are here to get me excited again and then crash at the end.

The way I see the situation is that the 2024 Orioles are not unlike the 2021 Ravens, in the sense that an otherwise promising season was derailed by the sheer number of injuries (and therefore, one shouldn't expect the situation to improve until next year). With the benefit of hindsight, maybe they should have attempted an in-season mini-rebuild after all?

 

[Dead2009]

The way I see the situation is that the 2024 Orioles are not unlike the 2021 Ravens, in the sense that an otherwise promising season was derailed by the sheer number of injuries (and therefore, one shouldn't expect the situation to improve until next year). With the benefit of hindsight, maybe they should have attempted an in-season mini-rebuild after all?

The 2023 Ravens are like the 2023 Orioles though. #1 seed in their respective league. Home field advantage. No championship to show for

 

[UVA_Guy81]

Feel like I need to lay off watching this team for a bit. Every time I watch them, I get completely frustrated, knowing that they could be so much better. I think Friday night was the tipping point with how good Efflin pitched and the offense was ice cold.
I'll watch football on Saturday's and Sunday's but the teams I like aren't going anywhere this year (WKU and UVA for college football, Rams and Dolphins for NFL). I guess that'll give me time to watch some shows that I haven't ever gotten around to watching.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

So it looks like my hypothetical scenario about choosing the matchup in the wild card round may be already moot, with the Royals quickly catching up... However, there is still the question of whether the Orioles should try to adjust the rotation in order to have the three best starters pitching during the 9/24-26 series @ NYY:

• The last time that everyone in the current rotation has pitched is as follows: Suárez 9/10, Kremer 9/11, Eflin 9/13, Burnes 9/14, Povich 9/15. If the current rotation order is continued strictly, it would be Suárez - Kremer - Eflin - Burnes - Povich - Suárez for the next six games, then Kremer - Eflin - Burnes for the NYY series.
  
  
• If we look at whole-season ERA, one could argue for swapping Kremer and Suárez for the SFG series on 9/17-20, which would result in Kremer pitching against DET on 9/24, while the projected starters @ NYY would be Suárez - Eflin - Burnes.
  
  
• If we take into account the 2nd-half drop-off of Burnes, the three best starters of the current rotation by ERA or FIP would be Eflin, Kremer, and Suárez. Making that work would require using a spot starter once, say on 9/22.

(Obviously, this question could be made moot as well if Grayson Rodriguez can return soon... or if the Orioles are more than 2 games behind the Yankees by 9/24, which would practically mean being locked to a wild card anyway and thus removes the need to treat 9/24-26 @ NYY like a playoff series.)

 

[UVA_Guy81]

So it looks like my hypothetical scenario about choosing the matchup in the wild card round may be already moot, with the Royals quickly catching up... However, there is still the question of whether the Orioles should try to adjust the rotation in order to have the three best starters pitching during the 9/24-26 series @ NYY:

• The last time that everyone in the current rotation has pitched is as follows: Suárez 9/10, Kremer 9/11, Eflin 9/13, Burnes 9/14, Povich 9/15. If the current rotation order is continued strictly, it would be Suárez - Kremer - Eflin - Burnes - Povich - Suárez for the next six games, then Kremer - Eflin - Burnes for the NYY series.
  
  
• If we look at whole-season ERA, one could argue for swapping Kremer and Suárez for the SFG series on 9/17-20, which would result in Kremer pitching against DET on 9/24, while the projected starters @ NYY would be Suárez - Eflin - Burnes.
  
  
• If we take into account the 2nd-half drop-off of Burnes, the three best starters of the current rotation by ERA or FIP would be Eflin, Kremer, and Suárez. Making that work would require using a spot starter once, say on 9/22.

(Obviously, this question could be made moot as well if Grayson Rodriguez can return soon... or if the Orioles are more than 2 games behind the Yankees by 9/24, which would practically mean being locked to a wild card anyway and thus removes the need to treat 9/24-26 @ NYY like a playoff series.)

I'm wondering if Grayson will even return in these final two weeks since he hasn't even had a rehab start yet. Next person returning I feel like would be Columbe, which I'm assuming would being taking Smith's place.

And good luck to Cole Irvin in Minnesota (unless he's pitching against us when we're there). Always seemed like a good guy.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Overreaction of the week: Time to stop watching Baltimore pro sports until March 27, 2025?

 

[UVA_Guy81]

Overreaction of the week: Time to stop watching Baltimore pro sports until March 27, 2025?

At least when Kimbrel’s pitching.

 

[UVA_Guy81]

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Roster moves for 9/18: Recalled RHP Bryan Baker from Triple-A Norfolk; Designated RHP Craig Kimbrel for assignment

I'm sure that many people will say "way overdue," but that might not matter on the margin, considering the extent of the current slump: The Orioles' 2-8 record for the last 10 games is dead last in the MLB, and in fact this is slightly overperforming since scoring 21 runs while giving up 51 has a Pythagorean Expectation of 0.165 (if an exponent of 1.83 is used). It's clear that the problem is practically everyone.

Presumably, morale is low due to the sheer number of injuries, which starts a vicious cycle since losing leads to more losing... I would not be surprised if the team is just giving up / waiting for the season to be over at this point. While I personally would never bet on sports, if I were to do that I'd be tempted to put a few dollars on the Orioles missing the postseason as an emotional hedge.

(No, seriously: All it takes is losing out or going 1-9 over the final 10 games. In fact, even continuing the 2-8 pace might be enough: Just imagine the Royals going 5-4 over their remaining 9 games, the Twins going 7-3 with a sweep of the Orioles, and the Tigers going 6-3 with another sweep of the Orioles. That would result in a 86-76 record for the Orioles, 87-75 for the Royals and Twins, and 86-76 for the Tigers with the tiebreaker.)

 

[UVA_Guy81]

I'm sure that many people will say "way overdue," but that might not matter on the margin, considering the extent of the current slump: The Orioles' 2-8 record for the last 10 games is dead last in the MLB, and in fact this is slightly overperforming since scoring 21 runs while giving up 51 has a Pythagorean Expectation of 0.165 (if an exponent of 1.83 is used). It's clear that the problem is practically everyone.

Presumably, morale is low due to the sheer number of injuries, which starts a vicious cycle since losing leads to more losing... I would not be surprised if the team is just giving up / waiting for the season to be over at this point. While I personally would never bet on sports, if I were to do that I'd be tempted to put a few dollars on the Orioles missing the postseason as an emotional hedge.

(No, seriously: All it takes is losing out or going 1-9 over the final 10 games. In fact, even continuing the 2-8 pace might be enough: Just imagine the Royals going 5-4 over their remaining 9 games, the Twins going 7-3 with a sweep of the Orioles, and the Tigers going 6-3 with another sweep of the Orioles. That would result in a 86-76 record for the Orioles, 87-75 for the Royals and Twins, and 86-76 for the Tigers with the tiebreaker.)

There’s been worse choke jobs so them pulling one with the way they’re playing right now wouldn’t surprise me in the least. The optimist in me really hopes that they’ll somehow back into the wild card and figure things out then.
The main difference in last year is it just looked like they were gassed the last few weeks of the season. They tried but they were spent and that’s a lot of the reason I believe Texas took them out without too much effort.
You’re right about the morale at the moment. They just look defeated and lifeless. They’re all frustrated and want to be the hero with these violent swings that are resulting in a lot of strikeouts, grounders or pop ups instead of the home runs they’re looking for.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

With the Orioles losing today, it's probably safe to say that the division is a lost cause even if they can somehow sweep the Yankees in the upcoming series. However, the scenario of being able to choose their ALWC opponent may be back on the table thanks to the Royals' recent slump:

1. The Yankees are likely to clinch the AL East after the 9/26 game (thus reducing the Orioles' goal to merely defending the wild card spot): Check, as the Yankees' magic number for clinching the division has now decreased to 4 even before their own game against the A's later tonight.
   
   
2. The Orioles are likely to end up with the 1st wild card no matter what (and thus can afford to gift the Twins up to 3 wins to help them take over the 2nd wild card spot from the Royals): Check, thanks to the Royals' recent slump.
   
   
3. The Twins are close enough to the Royals in the wild card standings for the "strategic tanking" strategy to possibly matter on the margin: Check. In fact, since the Tigers now have a realistic chance of overtaking the Twins and/or Royals, there is now another possible reason for the Orioles to consider this tactic, if they deem the Tigers to be a "harder" match-up than the Twins as well. (In that regard, the fact that the Twins hold the tiebreaker against the Royals and the Tigers definitely helps.)

(It should also be noted that even if the actual results of the 9/27-29 games involving the Orioles ultimately do not affect playoff seeding, there may still be other legitimate reasons for resting the starters, such as setting up the pitching staff for the ALWC.)