Orioles 2024 Season

[hattersgonnahate]

Oof... With another loss today, the Tigers now have the tiebreaker, which could potentially matter if they win out (which is a realistic possibility since the Tigers end the season with the Rays and then White Sox at home) while the Orioles go 2-4 over their last 6 games.

The Orioles should still be able to limp their way into the postseason short of losing out (and 3-3 or better will guarantee getting the 1st wild card). However, depending on what the standings look like after the 9/26 game, we might be talking about "gifting the Twins a win to keep the Tigers out of the 2nd wild card spot."

 

[hattersgonnahate]

The good news: With a win tonight combined with a Twins loss, the Orioles have mathematically clinched a wild card spot; the only question left is which one.

The bad news: Since the Twins lost while the Tigers won, the Tigers now have a 2-game lead over the Twins and are thus likely to be the 2nd wild card, even if the Orioles can afford to tank the Twins series in an attempt to avoid that match-up.


Which means that it's probably time to discuss the rotation for the AL Wild Card Series:

• For the Orioles, it looks like Eflin on 10/1, then Burnes on 10/2 (these two can be swapped if necessary, but that would prevent Burnes from getting an extra day of rest). If there's a Game 3, it's probably Suárez on 10/3 (while Kremer has been better in the 2nd half of this season, he won't be available due to being needed on 9/29); the interesting question is whether the Orioles would consider "planning ahead" by swapping Povich and Suárez beforehand for the 9/27-28 games (essential moving the extra day of rest from the regular season to just before the ALWCS).
  
  
• The interesting question is what would the Tigers do? Since Skubal pitched today, they could theoretically go with a spot starter / bullpen game in one of the remaining 5 games in order to save him for Game 1 of the ALWCS. On paper, the projected Tigers rotation after Skubal is Montero - Olson - Mize - Hurter per Fangraphs, but this could change since their recent "relay team" strategy creates more flexibility.

 

[Dead2009]

Since they shut G-Rod down for the season, I guess we gotta ride with Burnes and Eflin the entire playoffs. It's time for Kremer to step his game up and be the pitcher that he was last year.

 

[Hornsstampede2.0]

I think the team is built better for the post-season than last year.

Having a top line guy in Burnes, and a reliable #2 Eflin is a lot better than having so much bullpen depth to win 100 games last year

The losses this year were grinding injury driven losses that forced awful 3, 4, 5 pitchers....even the #2 was questionable

I don't think we will see Cade Povich, Albert Suarez, Cole Irvin, and Dean Kremer getting nonstop playoff starts.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Since they shut G-Rod down for the season, I guess we gotta ride with Burnes and Eflin the entire playoffs. It's time for Kremer to step his game up and be the pitcher that he was last year.

I don't think we will see Cade Povich, Albert Suarez, Cole Irvin, and Dean Kremer getting nonstop playoff starts.

Two thoughts:

1. If the Orioles actually manage to take this series against the Yankees, one could argue that failing to give up on Kimbrel / Rogers, etc. early enough (read: "you could lose only money and/or prospects, or that PLUS games") might have mattered on the margin in terms of conceding the division. Hopefully, this becomes a blessing in disguise by avoiding rust prior to the ALDS (provided that the Orioles win the wild card round, of course).
   
   
2. Regarding the perceived weakness of the playoff rotation, this is exactly why I wouldn't mind the strategy of "sacrificing one match-up to improve the others" by adjusting the rotation order (since the goal is to maximize the chance of winning the series as opposed to every single game-- "it's like gerrymandering"). Also, one possible idea is to use either Kremer or Suárez (RHP) plus Akin (LHP) as an intentional relay team for the #3 or #4 spot (to reduce the "times through order" penalty at the cost of only one reliever).

 

[Dead2009]

I think the team is built better for the post-season than last year.

Having a top line guy in Burnes, and a reliable #2 Eflin is a lot better than having so much bullpen depth to win 100 games last year

The losses this year were grinding injury driven losses that forced awful 3, 4, 5 pitchers....even the #2 was questionable

I don't think we will see Cade Povich, Albert Suarez, Cole Irvin, and Dean Kremer getting nonstop playoff starts.

Irvin's on the Twins.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

... And the three AL Central contenders all won tonight, with the Tigers indeed going with a bullpen game where Montero pitched only 2.2 innings. This increases the chance that they would be able to afford saving Skubal for the ALWCS (although if the Royals can keep up, they would still hold the tiebreaker against the Tigers for the 2nd wild card).

 

[hattersgonnahate]

It's probably time to discuss the rotation for the AL Wild Card Series:

• For the Orioles, it looks like Eflin on 10/1, then Burnes on 10/2 (these two can be swapped if necessary, but that would prevent Burnes from getting an extra day of rest). If there's a Game 3, it's probably Suárez on 10/3 (while Kremer has been better in the 2nd half of this season, he won't be available due to being needed on 9/29); the interesting question is whether the Orioles would consider "planning ahead" by swapping Povich and Suárez beforehand for the 9/27-28 games (essential moving the extra day of rest from the regular season to just before the ALWCS).

On second thought, there is actually another way for the Orioles to adjust the rotation for the postseason: By resting the starters during the series against the Twins.

• Assuming that one of Povich / Baker will be dropped from the ALWCS roster anyway due to the 13-pitcher limit, it might make sense to consider facing the Twins with Povich - Rogers - McDermott. This can be done by optioning the 14th pitcher a little early (e.g. after the 9/27 game) and using that roster spot as a revolving door to allow Rogers and McDermott to make spot starts on behalf of Suárez (9/28) and Kremer (9/29), thus allowing the latter two to be saved for the ALWCS. In fact, this would allow the rotation for the ALWCS to be set up in any order that makes sense for match-up reasons.

Granted, this does run the risk of possibly allowing themselves to be swept by the Twins... but that's okay as long as the Orioles manage to secure the 1st wild card (which only requires a win on their own or a loss by the Tigers). Meanwhile, the "worst case scenario" of gifting 3 wins to the Twins has a realistic chance of helping them take over the 2nd wild card spot for a potentially easier ALWCS match-up:

• Let's suppose that both the Orioles and the Twins win tonight. Under such a scenario, the Orioles would be locked into the 1st wild card spot, while the Twins would be 2 games behind the Royals and Tigers with 3 games remaining. Since the Twins hold the tiebreaker against the other two AL Central teams, all it takes is a 1-2 record or worse by both the Royals and Tigers for the Twins to steal the 2nd wild card if they're gifted 3 wins by the Orioles. Assuming that each game is a coin flip, the strategy of "tanking the last series" would have a ~25% chance of success in this scenario (certainly much better odds than trying to steal the AL East, as needing to win out while the Yankees lose out over the last 3 games is equivalent to winning 6 coin flips, or a ~1.56% chance).

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Urgh, spoke too soon... Perhaps Hyde should have left in Burnes for another inning since his pitch count was only at 69? (I can understand the move if the intention was to rest Burnes a little before the ALWCS, but the same goal could also be accomplished by using spot starters during the Twins series, followed by a relay team of one of Kremer / Suárez + Akin for Game 1.) Anyway, the likely loss of both the Orioles and Twins tonight pretty much removed any incentive to "intentionally tank" the Twins series for the purpose of match-up reasons: The Orioles now need another win to hold the 1st wild card, while the Twins would still need 6 coin flips in their favor to catch up with the other AL Central teams.

However, the strategy of using spot starters on 9/28-29 to save Kremer / Suárez for the ALWCS is still worth considering; the question is whether the Orioles can afford to do so and still secure at least one win agains the Twins? If they're not sure, the Orioles might be stuck with Eflin on 5-day rest / Burnes on 5-day rest / Suárez on 4-day rest for the ALWCS, which is not ideal especially if the wild card round opponent is the Tigers...