Orioles 2024 Season

[hattersgonnahate]

Oof... With another loss today, the Tigers now have the tiebreaker, which could potentially matter if they win out (which is a realistic possibility since the Tigers end the season with the Rays and then White Sox at home) while the Orioles go 2-4 over their last 6 games.

The Orioles should still be able to limp their way into the postseason short of losing out (and 3-3 or better will guarantee getting the 1st wild card). However, depending on what the standings look like after the 9/26 game, we might be talking about "gifting the Twins a win to keep the Tigers out of the 2nd wild card spot."

 

[hattersgonnahate]

The good news: With a win tonight combined with a Twins loss, the Orioles have mathematically clinched a wild card spot; the only question left is which one.

The bad news: Since the Twins lost while the Tigers won, the Tigers now have a 2-game lead over the Twins and are thus likely to be the 2nd wild card, even if the Orioles can afford to tank the Twins series in an attempt to avoid that match-up.


Which means that it's probably time to discuss the rotation for the AL Wild Card Series:

• For the Orioles, it looks like Eflin on 10/1, then Burnes on 10/2 (these two can be swapped if necessary, but that would prevent Burnes from getting an extra day of rest). If there's a Game 3, it's probably Suárez on 10/3 (while Kremer has been better in the 2nd half of this season, he won't be available due to being needed on 9/29); the interesting question is whether the Orioles would consider "planning ahead" by swapping Povich and Suárez beforehand for the 9/27-28 games (essential moving the extra day of rest from the regular season to just before the ALWCS).
  
  
• The interesting question is what would the Tigers do? Since Skubal pitched today, they could theoretically go with a spot starter / bullpen game in one of the remaining 5 games in order to save him for Game 1 of the ALWCS. On paper, the projected Tigers rotation after Skubal is Montero - Olson - Mize - Hurter per Fangraphs, but this could change since their recent "relay team" strategy creates more flexibility.

 

[Dead2009]

Since they shut G-Rod down for the season, I guess we gotta ride with Burnes and Eflin the entire playoffs. It's time for Kremer to step his game up and be the pitcher that he was last year.

 

[Hornsstampede2.0]

I think the team is built better for the post-season than last year.

Having a top line guy in Burnes, and a reliable #2 Eflin is a lot better than having so much bullpen depth to win 100 games last year

The losses this year were grinding injury driven losses that forced awful 3, 4, 5 pitchers....even the #2 was questionable

I don't think we will see Cade Povich, Albert Suarez, Cole Irvin, and Dean Kremer getting nonstop playoff starts.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Since they shut G-Rod down for the season, I guess we gotta ride with Burnes and Eflin the entire playoffs. It's time for Kremer to step his game up and be the pitcher that he was last year.

I don't think we will see Cade Povich, Albert Suarez, Cole Irvin, and Dean Kremer getting nonstop playoff starts.

Two thoughts:

1. If the Orioles actually manage to take this series against the Yankees, one could argue that failing to give up on Kimbrel / Rogers, etc. early enough (read: "you could lose only money and/or prospects, or that PLUS games") might have mattered on the margin in terms of conceding the division. Hopefully, this becomes a blessing in disguise by avoiding rust prior to the ALDS (provided that the Orioles win the wild card round, of course).
   
   
2. Regarding the perceived weakness of the playoff rotation, this is exactly why I wouldn't mind the strategy of "sacrificing one match-up to improve the others" by adjusting the rotation order (since the goal is to maximize the chance of winning the series as opposed to every single game-- "it's like gerrymandering"). Also, one possible idea is to use either Kremer or Suárez (RHP) plus Akin (LHP) as an intentional relay team for the #3 or #4 spot (to reduce the "times through order" penalty at the cost of only one reliever).

 

[Dead2009]

I think the team is built better for the post-season than last year.

Having a top line guy in Burnes, and a reliable #2 Eflin is a lot better than having so much bullpen depth to win 100 games last year

The losses this year were grinding injury driven losses that forced awful 3, 4, 5 pitchers....even the #2 was questionable

I don't think we will see Cade Povich, Albert Suarez, Cole Irvin, and Dean Kremer getting nonstop playoff starts.

Irvin's on the Twins.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

... And the three AL Central contenders all won tonight, with the Tigers indeed going with a bullpen game where Montero pitched only 2.2 innings. This increases the chance that they would be able to afford saving Skubal for the ALWCS (although if the Royals can keep up, they would still hold the tiebreaker against the Tigers for the 2nd wild card).

 

[hattersgonnahate]

It's probably time to discuss the rotation for the AL Wild Card Series:

• For the Orioles, it looks like Eflin on 10/1, then Burnes on 10/2 (these two can be swapped if necessary, but that would prevent Burnes from getting an extra day of rest). If there's a Game 3, it's probably Suárez on 10/3 (while Kremer has been better in the 2nd half of this season, he won't be available due to being needed on 9/29); the interesting question is whether the Orioles would consider "planning ahead" by swapping Povich and Suárez beforehand for the 9/27-28 games (essential moving the extra day of rest from the regular season to just before the ALWCS).

On second thought, there is actually another way for the Orioles to adjust the rotation for the postseason: By resting the starters during the series against the Twins.

• Assuming that one of Povich / Baker will be dropped from the ALWCS roster anyway due to the 13-pitcher limit, it might make sense to consider facing the Twins with Povich - Rogers - McDermott. This can be done by optioning the 14th pitcher a little early (e.g. after the 9/27 game) and using that roster spot as a revolving door to allow Rogers and McDermott to make spot starts on behalf of Suárez (9/28) and Kremer (9/29), thus allowing the latter two to be saved for the ALWCS. In fact, this would allow the rotation for the ALWCS to be set up in any order that makes sense for match-up reasons.

Granted, this does run the risk of possibly allowing themselves to be swept by the Twins... but that's okay as long as the Orioles manage to secure the 1st wild card (which only requires a win on their own or a loss by the Tigers). Meanwhile, the "worst case scenario" of gifting 3 wins to the Twins has a realistic chance of helping them take over the 2nd wild card spot for a potentially easier ALWCS match-up:

• Let's suppose that both the Orioles and the Twins win tonight. Under such a scenario, the Orioles would be locked into the 1st wild card spot, while the Twins would be 2 games behind the Royals and Tigers with 3 games remaining. Since the Twins hold the tiebreaker against the other two AL Central teams, all it takes is a 1-2 record or worse by both the Royals and Tigers for the Twins to steal the 2nd wild card if they're gifted 3 wins by the Orioles. Assuming that each game is a coin flip, the strategy of "tanking the last series" would have a ~25% chance of success in this scenario (certainly much better odds than trying to steal the AL East, as needing to win out while the Yankees lose out over the last 3 games is equivalent to winning 6 coin flips, or a ~1.56% chance).

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Urgh, spoke too soon... Perhaps Hyde should have left in Burnes for another inning since his pitch count was only at 69? (I can understand the move if the intention was to rest Burnes a little before the ALWCS, but the same goal could also be accomplished by using spot starters during the Twins series, followed by a relay team of one of Kremer / Suárez + Akin for Game 1.) Anyway, the likely loss of both the Orioles and Twins tonight pretty much removed any incentive to "intentionally tank" the Twins series for the purpose of match-up reasons: The Orioles now need another win to hold the 1st wild card, while the Twins would still need 6 coin flips in their favor to catch up with the other AL Central teams.

However, the strategy of using spot starters on 9/28-29 to save Kremer / Suárez for the ALWCS is still worth considering; the question is whether the Orioles can afford to do so and still secure at least one win agains the Twins? If they're not sure, the Orioles might be stuck with Eflin on 5-day rest / Burnes on 5-day rest / Suárez on 4-day rest for the ALWCS, which is not ideal especially if the wild card round opponent is the Tigers...

 

[UVA_Guy81]

Since they shut G-Rod down for the season, I guess we gotta ride with Burnes and Eflin the entire playoffs. It's time for Kremer to step his game up and be the pitcher that he was last year.

I think we'll see who starts the game today to see who they view as the #3. I'm leaning towards Suarez for today and then Kremer gets the game 3 start (if necessary). Suarez would be a #4 if we make the Divisional Series and Povich turns into the long reliever.

Not sure if I would rather see the Tigers since we came so close to beating them a few times to try to get revenge or the Royals who seem to be running out of gas (but afraid they'll turn it on again in the playoffs).

 

[hattersgonnahate]

I think we'll see who starts the game today to see who they view as the #3. I'm leaning towards Suarez for today and then Kremer gets the game 3 start (if necessary). Suarez would be a #4 if we make the Divisional Series and Povich turns into the long reliever.

Not sure if I would rather see the Tigers since we came so close to beating them a few times to try to get revenge or the Royals who seem to be running out of gas (but afraid they'll turn it on again in the playoffs).

Looks like Suárez is indeed the projected starter for today, which means that the ALWCS rotation will probably be Burnes - Eflin - Kremer (the truncated start for Burnes on 9/26 suggests that he's probably being penciled in for Game 1). My guess is that Suárez will most likely have a reduced pitch limit for today's game (say 70-80, to allow him to be deployed in Game 3 if needed), with some combination of Selby / Soto (plus Coulomb / Webb / Dominguez if necessary) to cover the remaining innings.

As for the ALWCS match-up: If it's the Tigers, the interesting question is whether the Orioles should face them with a more straightforward rotation order (which is most likely the current plan), or consider the "3-1-2" strategy (i.e. take the risk of having Kremer face Skubal in order to save Burnes and Eflin against "weaker" starters). The issue basically boils down to "Skubal has been very difficult to beat this year" (and thus one could make an argument for trying to maximize the probability of winnings Games 2-3 if the win probability of Game 1 is less than 50% even with Burnes starting)-- but at the same time, the "offset by one" playoff rotation strategy is especially risky for a 3-game series (vs. 5 or 7) because there would be no room for error if you lose Game 1.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Looks like Suárez is indeed the projected starter for today, which means that the ALWCS rotation will probably be Burnes - Eflin - Kremer (the truncated start for Burnes on 9/26 suggests that he's probably being penciled in for Game 1). My guess is that Suárez will most likely have a reduced pitch limit for today's game (say 70-80, to allow him to be deployed in Game 3 if needed), with some combination of Selby / Soto (plus Coulomb / Webb / Dominguez if necessary) to cover the remaining innings.

As for the ALWCS match-up: If it's the Tigers [...]

And I spoke too soon again on the Tigers... Let's see what the Royals might do for their ALWCS rotation.

• Ragans's last start was on 9/24 (6 IP, 89 pitches)
• Wacha's last start was on 9/26 (5 IP, 83 pitches)
• Singer's last start was on 9/27 (6 IP, 98 pitches)
• Lugo and Lorenzen both pitched during the 9/28 bullpen game (2 IP each, 36/32 pitches)
• Marsh has just pitched today and will likely not start a game during the ALWCS

So my guess is that it's probably going to be Ragans for Game 1, followed by Wacha and Singer in either order (with Lugo and Lorenzen pitching out of the bullpen)? Either way, this should be an easier match-up on paper.

 

[UVA_Guy81]

And I spoke too soon again on the Tigers... Let's see what the Royals might do for their ALWCS rotation.

• Ragans's last start was on 9/24 (6 IP, 89 pitches)
• Wacha's last start was on 9/26 (5 IP, 83 pitches)
• Singer's last start was on 9/27 (6 IP, 98 pitches)
• Lugo and Lorenzen both pitched during the 9/28 bullpen game (2 IP each, 36/32 pitches)
• Marsh has just pitched today and will likely not start a game during the ALWCS

So my guess is that it's probably going to be Ragans for Game 1, followed by Wacha and Singer in either order (with Lugo and Lorenzen pitching out of the bullpen)? Either way, this should be an easier match-up on paper.

And for us, it looks like it'll be Burnes, Efflin and Kremer. I'm guessing Suarez will get left off the roster for this round or will be sent to the bullpen and someone else gets left off the roster.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

And for us, it looks like it'll be Burnes, Eflin and Kremer. I'm guessing Suarez will get left off the roster for this round or will be sent to the bullpen and someone else gets left off the roster.

MLB.com is currently showing the following probable pitchers:

• Game 1: Burnes vs. Ragans
• Game 2: TBD vs. Lugo
• Game 3: TBD vs. Wacha

For the Royals, moving up Lugo makes sense from the standpoint of whole-season stats, as 3 days of rest is sufficient after throwing only 36 innings last time. The interesting part is the wait-and-see approach for the Orioles; perhaps they're keeping their options open since Eflin and Kremer will be well-rested and could start in either order?

(Anyway, Fangraphs is currently showing a 54.8% probability to advance to the ALDS, while the game-by-game probabilities on ESPN would yield a ~60.4% chance; PlayOffStatus.com is the most optimistic at 62%, while Baseball-Reference.com's model treats this series as a coin flip at 50.2%. The consensus is thus "slight favorite" as one would intuitively expect.)

 

[chillerdab]

Maybe Kremer wont pitch on Rosh Hashanah, which is Thursday night?

 

[skinz2winz]

Back in the playoffs a year later. Would you have left Jackson out of the starting lineup for the opener?

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Overreactions of the day:

• "The left field wall might have mattered on the margin here..." (The flyout by Westburg would have been a home run in 28/30 ballparks, while the flyout by Perez was listed as 19/30. Assuming that both of those would have been home runs without the wall reconfiguration, the score would have been tied at 2-2.)
  
  
• "And this is why you would consider an 'offset by one' rotation order in the postseason... did we just waste a start by Burnes?"
  
  
• "Why are we waiting until this late into the game to pinch-hit?" (Or alternatively: "Should have started someone else at DH," since Rutschman hasn't been able to hit much against LHP this year)
  
  
• "Is it time to start considering risky small ball tactics such as the hit-and-run and even squeeze bunts (since the Orioles have trouble getting hits with runners in scoring position)?"

 

[hattersgonnahate]

"Why are we waiting until this late into the game to pinch-hit?" (Or alternatively: "Should have started someone else at DH," since Rutschman hasn't been able to hit much against LHP this year)

Correction: Actually, I read the stats backwards. (I was looking at the "vs R as L" line, but the situation here is actually "vs L as R," where having Rutschman DH for his bat could make sense. Still, there's the downside where pinch-hitting for McCann with Rutschman as the DH would result in forfeiting the DH, which could potentially matter on the margin.)

Anyway, I guess my main frustration here can be summarized as "oh no, are we going to lose to another Kansas City team again?"

 

[chillerdab]

I think the hitting coaches need to be fired, or at least reexamine the way they are telling Orioles hitters to approach at bats.

Too much swinging and not enough working counts.

Adley regressed bigtime in the second half.
So did Gunnar.

In fact, who had a good second half?
Urias?

Not working counts especially with RISP is criminal.

 

[skinz2winz]

If we lose the series to the Royals, can we show Hyde the door after the season?