Orioles 2024 Season

[UVA_Guy81]

~20% per ESPN's model as of today (54.1% x 57.3% x 66.0%). In all seriousness, this past week certainly could have been worse, as a 3-4 record is what you "should" expect when scoring 28 runs while giving up 32. In fact, it looks like this team is still on pace for a 1st or 2nd wildcard spot even though winning the division is starting to appear unlikely (short of somehow sweeping the Yankees during the 9/24-26 series): Extrapolating the 23-25 (0.479) record since July to the remaining 30 games would mean going 14-16, for a final record of 90-72.


Other thoughts:

• Assuming that Eflin returns on 9/1, do you free up a roster spot by sending down Burch Smith (given his recent regression) while simply making Irvin the long reliever again?
  
  
• It looks like hitting was also part of the problem in August in addition to pitching: The Orioles were ranked 6th in OPS in July but 17th in August as of yesterday, versus 24th in ERA in July and 23rd in August so far. In particular, Jiménez, O'Hearn, and Holliday (among others) seem to be experiencing a slump recently...

That's what I'd do. Either him or Gregory Soto since he just seems to be sitting on the bench collecting a paycheck by doing very little.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

That's what I'd do. Either [make Irvin the long reliever] or Gregory Soto since he just seems to be sitting on the bench collecting a paycheck by doing very little.

Actually, we might have spoken too soon: Corbin Burnes's recent performance is really concerning even if this can be partly explained by extremely bad luck (0.377 BABIP in August as of yesterday). Could he be hiding an injury? At some point, one may have to consider the previously unthinkable option of having Burnes skip a start when Eflin returns, as even Irvin (or Rogers?) might be an improvement over Burnes right now based on the latter's August stats...

(On the bright side, at least the Yankees already lost tonight.)

 

[Dead2009]

What boggles my mind is how he only gave up 1 earned run but also gave up 2 home runs. Like how in the hell does that even work?

 

[hattersgonnahate]

What boggles my mind is how [Burnes] only gave up 1 earned run but also gave up 2 home runs. Like how in the hell does that even work?

The Wikipedia page on "Earned Run" has a detailed explanation. In summary, the distinction is based on comparing reality to the hypothetical scenario where a fielding error didn't occur and would have resulted in an out instead. For example, only one of the 6 runs given up by Burnes during the 8/28 game was considered "earned" based on the following reasoning:

• In the bottom of the 3rd inning, E. Hernández "should" have grounded out, but didn't due to Urías's fielding error. Had E. Hernández not reached first base, the two subsequent singles wouldn't have scored a run (1 unearned). Also, Lux would have been the third out, and thus the plate appearance and 3-run homer by T. Hernández wouldn't have happened (3 unearned).
  
  
• In the bottom of the 5th, Lux "should" have grounded out but didn't due to the error by Henderson. Since that would have been the 3rd out, Ohtani otherwise wouldn't have scored (1 unearned). Hence the total of 1+3+1=5 unearned runs for Burnes.
  
  
• A similar exercise may be done for Buehler: O'Hearn "should" have grounded out in the top of the 2nd had Muncy not made an error, and thus Urías's double would have scored only one run (Mullins only). Likewise, Holliday would have been the third out, thus preventing McCann's plate appearance and subsequent RBI single. That makes it a total of 2 unearned runs for Buehler.

Obviously, the unearned runs still count; the distinction here is that the two fielding errors ended up costing Burnes 5 extra runs on the aggregate due to factors beyond his pitching. Given the butterfly effect of those fielding errors, I can understand why some people are semi-seriously suggesting moving Henderson back to 3B, to allow Holliday to return to his "natural position" of SS... After all, If one only looks at basic fielding stats, Henderson does seem more error-prone at SS this year. Advanced stats are inconclusive, though:

• For Holliday, the jury is still out on 2B vs. SS, as his negative UZR/150 at 2B so far may be partly attributable to "learning a new position," while the 4 OAA (Statcast outs above average) figure is 2nd best among Orioles infielders this year (after Westburg at 3B). Besides, if his infield defense is actually below average, moving Holliday back to SS at the major league level would theoretically make things worse (since SS is "supposed" to be harder than 2B).
  
  
• Henderson actually had a higher UZR/150 at SS in 2022-23 (plus on the aggregate, even with the 2024 regression). However, his OAA figures looked slightly better at 3B. Thus, one could argue either way whether Henderson would be more valuable at SS vs. 3B.
  
  
• Even if putting Henderson at 3B and Holliday at SS would improve both positions, someone else has to play 2B. Unfortunately, Westburg is clearly worse at 2B vs. 3B based on 2023-24 figures for both UZR/150 and OAA. (For Urías, combining the 2022 and 2023 stats would suggest that he was better at 2B vs. 3B in terms of both UZR/150 and OAA, but he hasn't played 2B as much this year.)

 

[Dead2009]

Next 2 series are the Rockies and White Sox and why do I get the feeling it'll be a losing stretch of games

 

[Dead2009]

We couldnt even dominate a dude who was 1 and fucking 10. ONE AND FUCKING TEN. This season is a wash. Thank god it's football season. At least that way when i get let down I wont have 182 games of misery.

 

[chillerdab]

The last pitccher threw one fastball and 13 straight sliders.

Thirteen STRAIGHT SLIDERS.

And struck out two Orioles.

Cowser cant hit the breaking ball and Holliday cant either.

The injuries are one thing, but the absolutely shitty coaching is even worse.

What the fuck is Drew French doing?

Who are the hitting coaches?
What a let down.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

We couldnt even dominate a dude who was 1 and fucking 10. ONE AND FUCKING TEN.

To be fair, Ryan Feltner's 1-10 W-L record was arguably misleading partly because the Rockies are a bad team this year: His 9 quality starts resulted in 6 no-decisions and 3 losses. Otherwise, the advanced stats suggest that Feltner is better than Kremer and Irvin this year (4.57 expected ERA, versus 4.82 for Kremer and 5.75 for Irvin).

Anyway, given the benefit of hindsight, perhaps they should have deployed Irvin for the purpose of eating multiple innings instead of burning the bullpen (only to lose anyway). Sure, that does mean pitching on only 3 days of rest after his last start... but (a) Irvin only threw 60 pitches on 8/27, (b) burning the bullpen means cutting into the win probability for the next game, and (c) assuming that Kremer would be unavailable for at least one start, having an off day on 9/5 means that Irvin can still take over Kremer's rotation spot temporarily.

(Also, here's a modest proposal of the day while we're at it: Since Kimbrel's salary is a sunk cost, they might as well make him the mop-up reliever... by forcing him to finish lost games regardless of how many pitches that takes. After all, even Baker / Selby might be better at this point, but they probably wouldn't make the change unless Kimbrel pitches his arm off first.)

 

[chillerdab]

All of what you wrote makes sense.

What doesnt make sense: kimbrel let jones, a .218 #7 hitter on a bad team and the .218 hitter #8 hit a single and a double to take the lead in the bottom of the 8th.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

What doesnt make sense: kimbrel let jones, a .218 #7 hitter on a bad team and the .218 hitter #8 hit a single and a double to take the lead in the bottom of the 8th.

Sadly, this actually makes a lot of sense in retrospect:

• Both Nolan Jones and Jordan Beck are hitting slightly better in August relative to their whole-season stats, and in the case of Jones there's also the "lefty hitter vs. RHP" aspect.
  
  
• Meanwhile, Kimbrel has already been in a slump since July, and his August stats (even excluding yesterday's game) are even worse (8.78 FIP, ouch). Unfortunately, he might be simply done as an MLB pitcher-- as the saying goes, "Father Time is undefeated."

Hence the "modest proposal" about squeezing the last bit of value out of Kimbrel's contract by making him pitch his arm off in order to save the rest of the bullpen. (In all seriousness: What happened has happened, and all this team can do now is to try to minimize the damage. For today's game, I guess they could still use Irvin for multiple innings if needed, as he would otherwise have started the game if Eflin weren't returning, plus that penciling in Irvin for the 9/6 game would still be normal rest.)

 

[chillerdab]

Jones has shitty full season stats as does Beck. Thats why they’re the #7&8 hitters on the Rockies.

Outperforming shitty stats is a low bar.

Kimbrel certainly does seem done as a viable MLB pitcher, certainly as a closer thats for sure.

Though Elias’s philosophy has always been to draft hitters and buy pitchers, it is still hard to believe that they have literally NOBODY down on the farm that is better than this collection of philly rejects and waiver wire pickups.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Kimbrel certainly does seem done as a viable MLB pitcher, certainly as a closer thats for sure.

Crazy idea of the day: I can't imagine myself saying this three weeks ago, but why not go with the hot hand and let Gregory Soto close a few games as a part of a committee, given the recent drop-off of Seranthony Dominguez (ouch, 7.09 FIP in August)?

 

[Dead2009]

Holy shit the bats are actually heating up against the bad teams.

 

[chillerdab]

Nice to see, but also the sox are on pace to be the worst team in mlb history.

They are historically bad.

Oh well. You play the teams on the schedule…

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Holy shit the bats are actually heating up against the bad teams.

Nice to see, but also the sox are on pace to be the worst team in mlb history.

They are historically bad.

Oh well. You play the teams on the schedule…

As the saying goes: "Ravens 13, Bears 3" (which actually hasn't happened before in a real NFL game with this exact match-up). I guess my only quibble is that Burnes only lasted 5 innings, but at least this start was good enough for the circumstances. Also, it's nice to see Irvin get a three-inning save; apparently, the last time that he got a save was with the Phillies in 2019 (but that was a more conventional 2-inning save where he entered the game with a two-run lead).

You have to wonder if using Irvin today means that the Orioles are hoping that Kremer would recover in time for his next start, though... If that doesn't happen, I guess the choices are between (a) starting Eflin on 9/6 on normal rest, (b) starting Irvin on short rest (3 days might be okay since he threw only 43 pitches today), (c) a bullpen game, or (d) a spot start by Brandon Young or Trevor Rogers?

 

[UVA_Guy81]

Just wonder how many runs they could've scored if they didn't leave 16 men on base (2 per inning). But just hope that they don't go into another funk for three or four games. Was also surprised that they didn't try to throw Kimbrel out there with a massive lead to try to get some confidence back. By the way, those t-shirt hoodies they gave away yesterday do look good and better looking than some of the other stuff they've given away (like that soccer jersey for example).
Hopefully we can sweep the series and then continue winning 2 of 3 for the next few weeks to get into the playoffs and/or win the division and get one of the byes.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

And it's a terrible day at the office for Nastrini (who simply couldn't throw strikes) and really the entire White Sox team... As much as it's nice to get almost free wins, you have to feel bad about their fans at some point (if this is what they have been experiencing all season).

 

[Dead2009]

White Sox threw 72 pitches in only an inning and a half

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Quibble of the day: Seems that Kimbrel might actually be done for real, considering that he had to be bailed out by the defense to preserve a shutout against even the White Sox.

 

[Dead2009]

Im surprised they didnt give him the save considering Irvin got one the other day.