Series Thread: 8/5-8/11: @ TOR, @TB

[hattersgonnahate]

Jackson Holliday is now good at baseball. What a shot

This does raise the interesting question of whether Mayo was rushed to the major league level out of desperation after Westburg's injury (as opposed to just starting Urías at 3B in the meantime), by analogy of Holliday not being ready in April versus now.

(For the record, I did suggest the possibility of "trading the vets and playing the prospects" previously myself as well... But part of my line of reasoning back then was that mid-June would be a lower-leverage situation than August--in other words, there may be slightly less pressure to perform immediate--plus that getting a larger sample size from the prospects would help with planning for the trade deadline. That being said, you obviously cannot plan for random injuries to key players, and how the team is being managed right now may actually be the least bad option given the current circumstances.)

 

[ThomasTomasz]

Based on the tiny sample size so far, it looks like the Orioles front office are hitting 0.667 on its trade deadline deals:

• Hits: Eflin, Dominguez, Jiménez, Slater
• Misses: Rogers (at least until the 2nd inning of today's game), Soto

This could be worse, but when both misses are pitchers it's probably a wash while Rodriguez and Webb are unavailable.

Regarding Rogers, if the postseason started today, I might prefer penciling in Suárez as the #3 starter or using a two-person relay team for the #3/4 spots. As for Soto: Interestingly, the Fangraphs depth chart currently treats Kimbrel / Cano / Dominguez / Pérez as a closer committee, while listing Akin, Baker, and Soto as middle relievers, and Burch Smith as the long reliever. Assuming no other moves, the last two should probably be swapped to reflect actual usage and recent performance.

Eloy has pleasantly surprised. If he can avoid a freak injury, that’s a bat who can warm up to buoy a team in the middle of the order.

The command from Rogers looked good tonight. It has to be good with the fastball only topping at 92 Now. He’s not going to be a playoff starter in my opinion.

 

[UVA_Guy81]

Based on the tiny sample size so far, it looks like the Orioles front office are hitting 0.667 on its trade deadline deals:

• Hits: Eflin, Dominguez, Jiménez, Slater
• Misses: Rogers (at least until the 2nd inning of today's game), Soto

This could be worse, but when both misses are pitchers it's probably a wash while Rodriguez and Webb are unavailable.

Regarding Rogers, if the postseason started today, I might prefer penciling in Suárez as the #3 starter or using a two-person relay team for the #3/4 spots. As for Soto: Interestingly, the Fangraphs depth chart currently treats Kimbrel / Cano / Dominguez / Pérez as a closer committee, while listing Akin, Baker, and Soto as middle relievers, and Burch Smith as the long reliever. Assuming no other moves, the last two should probably be swapped to reflect actual usage and recent performance.

I would consider Pache a miss as well.
If Grayson is able to get back by the playoffs if we make it, I’d probably put Rogers 4th ahead of Kremer. If Grayson is done for the year, I’d put Rogers third behind Efflin and Suarez 4th.

 

[UVA_Guy81]

This does raise the interesting question of whether Mayo was rushed to the major league level out of desperation after Westburg's injury (as opposed to just starting Urías at 3B in the meantime), by analogy of Holliday not being ready in April versus now.

(For the record, I did suggest the possibility of "trading the vets and playing the prospects" previously myself as well... But part of my line of reasoning back then was that mid-June would be a lower-leverage situation than August--in other words, there may be slightly less pressure to perform immediate--plus that getting a larger sample size from the prospects would help with planning for the trade deadline. That being said, you obviously cannot plan for random injuries to key players, and how the team is being managed right now may actually be the least bad option given the current circumstances.)

I think that’s exactly it. I would seriously doubt he's up on the roster if Westburg is healthy. Maybe a September call up would’ve been his first appearance otherwise. And wish he had played third base more while in Norfolk because he’s looking like a guy that hasn’t played there a lot. Hopefully he’ll be able to work out the kinks like Jackson did this stint so far and what Grayson did after he was sent down last year.

 

[ThomasTomasz]

I would consider Pache a miss as well.
If Grayson is able to get back by the playoffs if we make it, I’d probably put Rogers 4th ahead of Kremer. If Grayson is done for the year, I’d put Rogers third behind Efflin and Suarez 4th.

Pache was more of a throw in I think, and when they had the option to upgrade with Austin Slater, they did it. He’s had some solid seasons before, and I’m surprised the Reds gave him up after just getting him.

If Rogers is pitching like he’s been pitching this year, I’m not so sure I’d be considering him to start beyond a game in the playoffs, and that might be a push. I think I’d have Eflin, Suarez and Kremer over him. But the one thing we could do is to try to flip a lineup on a game in Baltimore to go up against the wall. That’s where I’d be strategic with him.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Valiant losing effort in tonight's game... just imagine what might have happened had Vladimir Guerrero Jr. been given the Barry Bonds treatment (all else being equal, that might have saved a run or two). On the bright side, at least the AL East is still tied since the Yankees also lost.


On a related side note: While it's too early to look this far ahead, it looks like the division will likely come down to the the 9/24-26 series @ NYY, as the regular-season tiebreaker is only a team-specific half-game lead in practice:

• If the Orioles are 2 games behind prior to 9/24: The Orioles would need to sweep the Yankees for a one-game cushion, or win 2 out of 3 and try to gain a game over the last three days. (Any scenario worse than 2 GB entering that series should be treated as "playing for a wildcard spot" in practice since that would require sweeping the Yankees and/or gaining at least 2 games over the last three days.)
  
  
• 1 GB: Sweeping the Yankees would provide a two-game cushion, while winning 2 out of 3 would simply require keeping pace over the last three days. (They Orioles would still be mathematically alive by losing the @ NYY series 1-2, but making up 2 games over the last three days is unlikely.)
  
  
• Tied: Sweeping the Yankees would clinch the division mathematically, while winning 2 out of 3 @ NYY would allow the Orioles to drop an extra game relative to the Yankees over the last three days. Lose two, and the situation would be reversed.
  
  
• 1 game ahead: Winning 2 out of 3 @ NYY would provide a two-game cushion, while winning 1 would require keeping pace for the last 3 days.
  
  
• 2 GA: Winning 2 out of 3 @ NYY would clinch mathematically, while winning only 1 would still provide a one-game cushion. (Any scenario better than 3 GA would require being swept by the Yankees or a similar collapse to lose the division.)

Of course, the Yankees also know this since it's simple math; the question is whether Hyde et. al. would consider managing those three games like the playoffs and plan ahead accordingly, as it looks like they are a de-facto play-in series for the ALDS in a practical sense (not unlike the 7-vs-8 game in the NBA playoffs, but in a best-of-3 format and with one fewer round overall). It should be noted that since the 9/24-26 series is at NYY, the most likely result is losing 1-2, and thus the Orioles practically need to enter that series one game ahead for a better than 50% chance at winning the division.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Time for another comparison with 2023 to keep things in perspective?

• 2023 after 116 games: 71-45 (2 games ahead of the Rays), 569 runs scored (4.91 / game), 507 runs allowed (4.37 / game), run differential = +62 (versus +145 for the Rays), Expected record per MLB.com = 64-52 ("lucky" by 7 games)
  
  
• 2024 after 116 games 68-48 (tied with the Yankees), 591 runs scored (5.09 / game), 502 runs allowed (4.33 / game), run differential = +89 (versus +113 for the Yankees), Expected record per MLB.com = 67-49 ("lucky" by 1 game)

"Does that mean the better record from 2023 is mostly attributable to Félix Bautista / a better bullpen in general?" Let's see (note that Fangraphs only updates the aggregate numbers daily, and I thus removed today and the last game from the 2023 sample for a "fair" comparison):

• 2023 after 115 games: 4.36 ERA and 4.41 FIP for starters, 3.71 ERA and 3.50 FIP for relievers
• 2024 after 115 games: 3.80 ERA and 3.97 FIP for starters, 4.03 ERA and 3.81 FIP for relievers

(So the actual data does match the perception: The 2024 team "should" be better on paper overall, but is being held back by the slew of pitcher injuries.)

 

[ThomasTomasz]

Was in and out of watching/listening to the game tonight, but really great start from Eflin, as well as another good performance from Eloy Jimenez. I know it’s only a matter of time before he hurts himself some weird way, but I guess we can enjoy it while it lasts.

 

[ThomasTomasz]

 

[ThomasTomasz]

That is a way to get an early lead for Burnes

 

[ThomasTomasz]

Jackson Holliday with another bomb

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Well, that was a more stressful game than what the win probability graph might suggest. Given the result of the PHI-ARI game, the Orioles would somehow end up with the best record in the MLB for now. Seems that this team is still staying competitive despite being inconsistent thanks to the fact that there is no single dominant team this year?

(Also, one more thought on the analysis regarding the 9/24-26 series @ NYY: For comparison, the closest equivalent in 2023 had lower stakes since the Orioles were 2 games ahead of the Rays entering the 9/14-17 series "for the division," there were 13 games remaining after that, plus that it was a 4-game series... which made it possible to salvage a 2-2 split after losing the first two.)

 

[ThomasTomasz]

Well, that was a more stressful game than what the win probability graph might suggest. Given the result of the PHI-ARI game, the Orioles would somehow end up with the best record in the MLB for now. Seems that this team is still staying competitive despite being inconsistent thanks to the fact that there is no single dominant team this year?

(Also, one more thought on the analysis regarding the 9/24-26 series @ NYY: For comparison, the closest equivalent in 2023 had lower stakes since the Orioles were 2 games ahead of the Rays entering the 9/14-17 series "for the division," there were 13 games remaining after that, plus that it was a 4-game series... which made it possible to salvage a 2-2 split after losing the first two.)

Very stressful game, but I thought well-managed with the bullpen.

I wonder if, as you’ve said before, we’re planning to possibly ‘punt’ the game today with Suarez starting, and a lot of the ‘high leverage’ arms used up. Gotta think Cano and Dominguez are not available, and Perez might not be either.

Mountcastle also had a very good game at the plate yesterday.

 

[ThomasTomasz]

I’m also quite OK with giving Brandon Young a shot if we need him over the rest of the year. He does not have the ‘shine’ that Povich or McDermott have had through the minor leagues, but he’s been very consistent and I think he has good stuff. He’s actually pitched better in Norfolk this year than he did in Bowie.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Oof... If Mayo is really not ready yet, the Orioles might as well send him back down and call up Liván Soto in the meantime. After all, Urías is now the de-facto starter at 3B again anyway, while Soto would arguably be a better defensive sub if you're going to have an automatic out. (Besides, this would conveniently act as a mild form of service time manipulation... in the sense that Mayo's Rookie eligibility could be saved for 2025.)

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Not sure about Hyde's bullpen decisions here:

• I actually won't blame him for taking out Suárez with two outs since it's one of those "damned if you do and damned if you don't" situations: Suárez was already at 94 pitches, and this team can't afford to lose another pitcher to injuries. However, I disagree with the choice of Pérez here as the first reliever, as Pérez has already pitched yesterday (and issued two walks in the process). Why not use Akin instead, considering that he's better than Pérez vs. both lefties and righties this year and can go for multiple innings if needed?
  
  
• Putting in Kimbrel in a tied game is already questionable, but at least he should be taken out after the second walk (as Kimbrel is known for not being able to hold runners on base). Unfortunately, that would be the difference of the game... maybe Kimbrel and Akin should swap roles since salary is a sunk cost?

 

[UVA_Guy81]

Oof... If Mayo is really not ready yet, the Orioles might as well send him back down and call up Liván Soto in the meantime. After all, Urías is now the de-facto starter at 3B again anyway, while Soto would arguably be a better defensive sub if you're going to have an automatic out. (Besides, this would conveniently act as a mild form of service time manipulation... in the sense that Mayo's Rookie eligibility could be saved for 2025.)

Definitely think that Mayo needs the Holliday (and Rodriguez from last year) treatment of getting sent down to work on some things and hope that they can get better in the future. At least he'd know where he needs improvement and hopefully they'd have him play 3rd down there at Norfolk to have him get used to it more.

Not sure about Hyde's bullpen decisions here:

• I actually won't blame him for taking out Suárez with two outs since it's one of those "damned if you do and damned if you don't" situations: Suárez was already at 94 pitches, and this team can't afford to lose another pitcher to injuries. However, I disagree with the choice of Pérez here as the first reliever, as Pérez has already pitched yesterday (and issued two walks in the process). Why not use Akin instead, considering that he's better than Pérez vs. both lefties and righties this year and can go for multiple innings if needed?
  
  
• Putting in Kimbrel in a tied game is already questionable, but at least he should be taken out after the second walk (as Kimbrel is known for not being able to hold runners on base). Unfortunately, that would be the difference of the game... maybe Kimbrel and Akin should swap roles since salary is a sunk cost?

I was surprised that we went with Perez two days in a row unless Hyde was hoping that he'd be able to get that out to help him mentally. There had to be someone in the bullpen that was more rested that could've gotten that final out for Suarez (who has done solid in both starts since Grayson went down). I would've been fine with Aiken or even Baker in that situation to get one out.