Orioles 2024 Season

[hattersgonnahate]

I do think there is merit to doing that, but you can’t rely on that strategy long-term. It’s basically a bullpen day every 4th/5th day, or on an early travel day.

To clarify, I was mostly thinking about "skipping the #5 starter whenever possible" and "covering starter innings using a combination of two pitchers" to avoid burning the bullpen. That being said, actual effectiveness of this strategy is uncertain since the both Irvin and Povich are lefties (if you want to use the "opener" strategy, it's better to have one righty and one lefty in the relay team)...

I wouldn’t have a problem selling Santander for a rental pitcher in an even swap, but I just don’t see other teams with the depth willing to make that happen.

On paper, the Mariners have a weakness at RF and DH in terms of both rest-of-season WAR projections (which are ranked #23 and #27) and actual production (<0.700 OPS for the top two listed players for those two positions). The issue is that none of their major league starters are close to hitting free agency, which means that a straight swap definitely won't work.

But what if the Orioles offer a package of "Santander plus a prospect that they're willing to spare"? For that matter, it looks like the Royals also have a weakness at RF and DH on paper (#24 / #29 in rest-of-season WAR projections)... would it make sense to ask about Wacha (who has a $16M player option for 2025 before reaching UFA status in 2026)?

 

[ThomasTomasz]

To clarify, I was mostly thinking about "skipping the #5 starter whenever possible" and "covering starter innings using a combination of two pitchers" to avoid burning the bullpen. That being said, actual effectiveness of this strategy is uncertain since the both Irvin and Povich are lefties (if you want to use the "opener" strategy, it's better to have one righty and one lefty in the relay team)...


On paper, the Mariners have a weakness at RF and DH in terms of both rest-of-season WAR projections (which are ranked #23 and #27) and actual production (<0.700 OPS for the top two listed players for those two positions). The issue is that none of their major league starters are close to hitting free agency, which means that a straight swap definitely won't work.

But what if the Orioles offer a package of "Santander plus a prospect that they're willing to spare"? For that matter, it looks like the Royals also have a weakness at RF and DH on paper (#24 / #29 in rest-of-season WAR projections)... would it make sense to ask about Wacha (who has a $16M player option for 2025 before reaching UFA status in 2026)?

Seattle is a popular team for starting pitchers, and they also have some more in their pipeline. It’s an interesting question, but with Woo seemingly hurt all of the time, and them wanting Hancock to get more seasoning, that’s going to be a tough ask. Who would you want to target, because just about all of them have extreme levels of control, and it would take more than Santander and, say, Norby, to get Gilbert/Kirby/Miller.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Seattle is a popular team for starting pitchers, and they also have some more in their pipeline. It’s an interesting question, but with Woo seemingly hurt all of the time, and them wanting Hancock to get more seasoning, that’s going to be a tough ask. Who would you want to target, because just about all of them have extreme levels of control, and it would take more than Santander and, say, Norby, to get Gilbert/Kirby/Miller.

That's what I thought as well, hence my other idea of asking the Royals about Wacha (who's their #4 starter on paper from the standpoint of IP and ERA) while offering Santander + a mid-level prospect.

But in case that doesn't work either, another idea that I have recently heard is the option of offering to take up a salary dump from a team that's selling and happens to have a serviceable starter with a bad contract. The idea is essentially "paying more money to reduce the cost in terms of prospects," which is something that the Orioles' new ownership should be able to do within reason; I don't have specific names yet for this approach, though.

 

[ThomasTomasz]

That's what I thought as well, hence my other idea of asking the Royals about Wacha (who's their #4 starter on paper from the standpoint of IP and ERA) while offering Santander + a mid-level prospect.

But in case that doesn't work either, another idea that I have recently heard is the option of offering to take up a salary dump from a team that's selling and happens to have a serviceable starter with a bad contract. The idea is essentially "paying more money to reduce the cost in terms of prospects," which is something that the Orioles' new ownership should be able to do within reason; I don't have specific names yet for this approach, though.

If Wacha only has a player option for next year, which he is sure to decline in favor of a 2-3 year contract, I think Santander straight up for Wacha is OK.

I’m just concerned that Wacha is basically Kyle Gibson again, and that, while he would be a good arm to get us through the season, is he really going to be effective taking the ball as the #3 starter in the playoffs? In a five game series, that #3 guy is pivotal. Wacha, like Gibson, does bring post-season experience, but he’s far from the #2 he used to be earlier in his career.

Still, I think we’ve seen enough with Elias to pretty much discount trading Santander at this point due to clubhouse chemistry.

 

[ThomasTomasz]

Usually you look not great in your first start back from the IL. Kremer had a very good game, and now is throwing his stinker.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Usually you look not great in your first start back from the IL. Kremer had a very good game, and now is throwing his stinker.

So that's what the 1948 Boston Braves meant by "Spahn and Sain and pray for rain"...

(In all seriousness: If even Kremer is this much of a question mark, the Orioles might as well try a relay team of Kremer plus one of Povich / Irvin, with each of them being penciled for 3 innings each.)

If Wacha only has a player option for next year, which he is sure to decline in favor of a 2-3 year contract, I think Santander straight up for Wacha is OK.

I’m just concerned that Wacha is basically Kyle Gibson again, and that, while he would be a good arm to get us through the season, is he really going to be effective taking the ball as the #3 starter in the playoffs? In a five game series, that #3 guy is pivotal. Wacha, like Gibson, does bring post-season experience, but he’s far from the #2 he used to be earlier in his career.

Still, I think we’ve seen enough with Elias to pretty much discount trading Santander at this point due to clubhouse chemistry.

On second thought, would other teams be interested in Stowers (he might still be an upgrade over the Royals' players at RF / DH) plus a mid-level prospect?

 

[ThomasTomasz]

So that's what the 1948 Boston Braves meant by "Spahn and Sain and pray for rain"...

(In all seriousness: If even Kremer is this much of a question mark, the Orioles might as well try a relay team of Kremer plus one of Povich / Irvin, with each of them being penciled for 3 innings each.)


On second thought, would other teams be interested in Stowers (he might still be an upgrade over the Royals' players at RF / DH) plus a mid-level prospect?

I think Kremer will be fine, he is usually good for 4-5 starts and then has a stinker. I’m just mad because in my primary large fantasy league, I did not start him last week and got a gem, and this week I started him and he imploded.

I think Stowers is basically going to be a throw in on a trade at this point. He’s a post-hype prospect, and we have shown our hand that we really haven’t given him a chance to start. I think he would be an above average regular for the bottom half of the league

 

[hattersgonnahate]

I think Kremer will be fine, he is usually good for 4-5 starts and then has a stinker. I’m just mad because in my primary large fantasy league, I did not start him last week and got a gem, and this week I started him and he imploded.

Obviously, everyone is going to have a bad day from time to time; I am just somewhat concerned about Kremer since his advanced stats have "regression candidate" written all over them (and that was exactly what happened to Irvin starting in June). That being said, Kremer still looks like the #4 starter of this pitching staff for now, while the limited sample size for Povich so far suggests that there may be some bad luck involved (notice that his expected ERA and batting average are lower than that of Irvin and even Kremer).

So here's the short-term workaround that I would advocate:

• Since there are two question marks in the rotation, it might make some sense to organize the starters in a 1-5-2-3-4 order after the All-Star break. (The idea is to space out the workload for the bullpen in case the #4/5 starter gets into trouble, plus that you're playing the long game by sacrificing one match-up in order to improve 2-3 others.)
  
  
• The #4 spot would be a relay team of Kremer and Povich; the idea is that the opposite handedness would make it impossible for the other team to optimize the lineup for either, while Kremer gets to gradually ramp back up the workload after returning from the IL. The #5 spot would unfortunately need to be treated as a punt game for now (read: pencil in Irvin + Akin with the intention of simply letting them eat innings) until more help arrives.

 

[ThomasTomasz]

Probably selling my tickets on Thursday and Saturday. This weather is brutal to sit through a game, and I’m backed up on things outside of work. I know i won’t be back in town in time for the game on Saturday- I really hate these 4:05 Saturday starts- but I’d love to go to the Cubs on Thursday.

 

[skinz2winz]

After this Cubs debacle, I see no way this team makes any kind of run. The pitching was poorly constructed yet again this year. Sure, you added Burned and did not plan on Bradish injury but man, the rotation stinks, the bullpen stinks and we couldn't buy any offense in 3 games?
On to next year I guess...

 

[ThomasTomasz]

After this Cubs debacle, I see no way this team makes any kind of run. The pitching was poorly constructed yet again this year. Sure, you added Burned and did not plan on Bradish injury but man, the rotation stinks, the bullpen stinks and we couldn't buy any offense in 3 games?
On to next year I guess...

You’re really out on the team after that? There is still more season to play, and all teams go through slumps. As we’ve seen for many years now, the playoffs are which team gets hot at the right time.

You still have Burnes and Grayson going 1-2. You just need a #3 starter (preferably one with playoff experience), and one, preferably two, bullpen arms. The crappy low leverage relievers like Vespi and Baker aren’t going to see playing time in a playoff series, because their roles are likely going to be taken by the #4 and #5 starters.

This team also is still extremely young, and was bound to wear down by the end of the first half. In June, they had one day off for the entire month. And their next time off was into July for a west coast road trip. The schedule makers did not do the team any favors.

The Orioles are not going to collapse, and are still going to fight for the division. It is a pivotal series against the Yankees coming up though.

 

[ThomasTomasz]

Also, going to say that we need to change the dynamic here a little bit because we have way too many left-handed hitters right now and that has exposed us with Shoto and Steele taking us to task. Bring up Mayo to platoon with Ryan O’Hearn, and I think it’s time one of Urias or Mateo got shipped out.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

After this Cubs debacle, I see no way this team makes any kind of run. The pitching was poorly constructed yet again this year. Sure, you added Burned and did not plan on Bradish injury but man, the rotation stinks, the bullpen stinks and we couldn't buy any offense in 3 games?
On to next year I guess...

You’re really out on the team after that? There is still more season to play, and all teams go through slumps. As we’ve seen for many years now, the playoffs are which team gets hot at the right time. [...] The Orioles are not going to collapse, and are still going to fight for the division. It is a pivotal series against the Yankees coming up though.

Maybe the truth is actually somewhere in the middle, i.e. "this team is probably above average, but is unlikely to go far in the postseason as things currently stand"? After all, while one could blame the strenuous June schedule and pitcher injuries (which is arguably correlated with the former) for the recent slump, the extent of drop-off is quite stark:

• Start of season through 6/20: 49-25 (0.662), 390 RS (5.27 / game), 265 RA (3.58 / game)
• 6/21 through tonight: 8-11 (0.421), 76 RS (4.00 / game), 114 RA (6.00 / game)

With that in mind, let's revisit the "in-season mini-rebuild" idea:

• Previously, my line of reasoning was that "tanking for the 3rd wild card" might make if the Yankees are running away with the AL East, as this would ensure avoiding them until the ALCS. However, this strategy might not work anymore, as it looks like the Guardians may stay ahead of the Yankees, while the Astros may overtake the Mariners. While the Orioles are still favored to win their regular-season tiebreaker against the Twins, Red Sox, Royals, and Mariners, it looks like the 3rd wild card / #6 seed would actually have the hardest path now (imagine ALWC at Astros, then ALDS at Yankees, then ALCS at Guardians).

Also, going to say that we need to change the dynamic here a little bit because we have way too many left-handed hitters right now and that has exposed us with Shoto and Steele taking us to task. Bring up Mayo to platoon with Ryan O’Hearn, and I think it’s time one of Urias or Mateo got shipped out.

If we consider recency bias, the "descending order by wOBA since June" default lineup using the current roster would look like the following:

RF Kjerstad
LF Hays
SS Henderson
DH Santander
1B O'Hearn
C Rutschman
2B Westburg
3B Urías
CF Mullins

Possible ideas based on this:

• Trade Mountcastle (if Mayo is considered a 1B/3B)
  
  
• Send down Cowser (due to his slump since June) and call up Norby as the backup 2B/LF/RF (since the CF position is still backed up by Hays and Mateo)
  
  
• Call up Holliday again when he's ready? (He also bats left, though, which means that he might not be a direct replacement for one of Urías / Mateo).

 

[skinz2winz]

You’re really out on the team after that? There is still more season to play, and all teams go through slumps. As we’ve seen for many years now, the playoffs are which team gets hot at the right time.

You still have Burnes and Grayson going 1-2. You just need a #3 starter (preferably one with playoff experience), and one, preferably two, bullpen arms. The crappy low leverage relievers like Vespi and Baker aren’t going to see playing time in a playoff series, because their roles are likely going to be taken by the #4 and #5 starters.

This team also is still extremely young, and was bound to wear down by the end of the first half. In June, they had one day off for the entire month. And their next time off was into July for a west coast road trip. The schedule makers did not do the team any favors.

The Orioles are not going to collapse, and are still going to fight for the division. It is a pivotal series against the Yankees coming up though.

Ok, you are making too much sense however, good teams find a way don't they? I guess mini slumps are better than prolonged ones. We do need a #3 starter and some BP help.

 

[skinz2winz]

Also, going to say that we need to change the dynamic here a little bit because we have way too many left-handed hitters right now and that has exposed us with Shoto and Steele taking us to task. Bring up Mayo to platoon with Ryan O’Hearn, and I think it’s time one of Urias or Mateo got shipped out.

I couldn't agree more. Decisions need to be made. Norby deserves another shot and Mayo as well. Cowser facing a bunch of lefty's isn't exactly fair either.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

If we consider recency bias, the "descending order by wOBA since June" default lineup using the current roster would look like the following:

RF Kjerstad
LF Hays
SS Henderson
DH Santander
1B O'Hearn
C Rutschman
2B Westburg
3B Urías
CF Mullins

Actually, it looks like I spoke too soon: Upon further review, several players on this list are actually showing extreme L/R splits. If we use whole-season-so-far stats vs. RHP and LHP (min. 20 PAs) instead, the reverse-wOBA lineups would look very different...

Vs. RHP

SS Henderson
LF Kjerstad
2B Westburg
DH O'Hearn
RF Santander
CF Cowser
1B Mountcastle
3B Urías
C Rutschman (yikes)

Vs. LHP

DH Rutschman (somehow he's currently leading the team in OBP vs. L this season so far)
LF Hays
SS Henderson
1B Mountcastle
RF Santander
2B Mateo
3B Westburg
CF Cowser
C McCann

Now, there are several caveats involved: Fangraphs doesn't seem to allow for a "double splits" lookup such as "June 1 through present AND vs. RHP" (presumably, Mullins got bumped out by Cowser based on whole-season stats due to the latter's hot start), and we don't know about Kjerstad / O'Hearn vs. L due to tiny sample sizes. But we can still make a few useful inferences here:

• Maybe Hyde's platoon decisions actually aren't terrible at first glance?
• Vs. RHP: Rutschman should probably bat lower, while Kjerstad should probably bat higher
• Vs. LHP: Hays should probably bat higher

 

[ThomasTomasz]

Hays actually is playing extremely well vs LHP after coming back from the injury. Who knows if that affected him at the start of the year, or if his timing was off, but owning him in a couple deep fantasy leagues, he’s been a must-start for me when he’s in the lineup.

Adley‘s performance vs RHP is…….troubling, to say the least.

I’m also advocating Mayo to come up in part to get a big difference-maker in the lineup. Urias and Mateo are fine players, but their roles are redundant at this point. A bigger bat to come off the bench, vs a defensive-minded starter/replacement is what we need. We don’t pull Westburg/Henderson/Mountcastle for defensive replacements anyway (it’s not needed) so you really don’t need both.

 

[ThomasTomasz]

Ok, you are making too much sense however, good teams find a way don't they? I guess mini slumps are better than prolonged ones. We do need a #3 starter and some BP help.

The only reason that I’m saying we need two bullpen arms is because you just can’t count on Couloumbe coming back on his timeline. Even if Bautista is way ahead, both of them are going to be doing their rehab at the complex and doing simulated games instead of live reps in AAA/AA. I don’t want to throw them into high leverage situations immediately upon their return with that kind of rehab.

 

[skinz2winz]

The only reason that I’m saying we need two bullpen arms is because you just can’t count on Couloumbe coming back on his timeline. Even if Bautista is way ahead, both of them are going to be doing their rehab at the complex and doing simulated games instead of live reps in AAA/AA. I don’t want to throw them into high leverage situations immediately upon their return with that kind of rehab.

Hopefully Elias doesn't go dumpster diving. It's time to start making decisions on young talent ie; Mayo, Norby. If you keep and promote, then Mateo and Urias have to go due to log jam. Decide if you keep or move Stowers as well.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

... And the first half of the 2024 season is mercifully over. It should be noted that the 2024 Orioles aren't doing too badly relative to the 2023 counterpart after 96 games:

• While the 2024 Orioles are one game worse in terms of overall W-L record (58-38 vs. 59-37), their expected record is three games better (56-40 vs. 53-43 per MLB.com). The discrepancy can be partly explained by luck in one-run games, which was merely average in 2024 (11-11, vs. 16-9 in 2023).
  
  
• The 2024 team has scored 474 runs so far while allowing 394 (4.94 RS / 4.10 RA per game), versus 473 RS and 426 RA in 2023 after 96 games (4.93 RS / 4.44 RA). Granted, the 2024 team does need to upgrade pitching in order to stay competitive, but one could argue that this year's team is better so far.
  
  
• The 2024 team is currently one game ahead of the Yankees and has a 6.5-game cushion over the Royals for the last wildcard spot. For the 2023 team after 96 games, the Orioles were one game ahead of the Rays and had a 5.5-game cushion over the Astros and Blue Jays (who were tied) for the last wildcard spot.
  
  
• Besides pitcher injuries, though, one aspect that's less favorable for the 2024 team is the second-half schedule: They will have 8 more away games than home games remaining, versus a difference of 4 in 2023.