Offseason Discussion-2013 Edition

[tzill]

heres what I've been doing instead of homework today:


Giants roughly 78-79 mill between:

Lincecum, Cain, Zito, Pablo, Vogey, Javy, MadBum

MLB traderumors projects arbitration to go like this

Posey -5.9m
Blanco-1.3m
Arias-800k
ManBur-600k
Romo-3.6m
Mijares-1.6m
Wilson-8.5m
Casilla-5.4m
Hensley-1.3m
Pence-13.8m

=42.2m


Total that puts the payroll at 120m

Now, lets play GM. Breakdown what you can see realistically happening.

I’d imagine we don’t tender Weezy a contract, and resign him for less, lets just throw out 2m with incentives, bringing that payroll down to around 114m. I also do not bring back ManBur. The rest I bring back at those prices.
So my starting point is 113m, so heres what I do:
Offer Pagan 4/48m
Offer Scutaro 2/18m
Offer Affeldt 3/24, little less than 1m what League got.

Next:

Offer Jason Bay 1yr/1mill with incentives

Resign Ryan Theriot 1yr/1.25mill

Pagan-CF
Scutaro-2B
Pablo-3B
Posey-C
Pence-RF
Belt-1B
Bay/Blanco-LF
Crawford-SS

Bench:
Arias-INF
Hector Sanchez C
Brett Pill 1B/OF
Bay/Blanco OF
Theriot 2B

Pitching:
Cain, Bum, Timmy, Vogey,Zeet

Affeldt, Casilla, Javy, Mijares, Hensley, Romo, Wilson


Total: 144m

Also work on a mega deal for Posey, or at least lay the ground work for future talks.

Nice work, bro. I differ on a couple of points:

1. No more than 3/30 for Oxy. If he can get more from another team, G-d bless him and start talking to Torii Hunter's peeps.
2. Scoots won't get 2/18....maybe 2/12 so I think you're a little high on that one.
3. No way in hell I offer an 8th inning reliever 3/24. 2/13 max for Affeldt.
4. Didn't Jason Bey say he didn't want to play here? I suspect he'll go to the AL where he can DH a lot. The A'ss might be a fit.
5. Riot will be interesting. He may want to move on to a squad where he can start.

 

[gp956]

Moped is 37. I would accept a 1/7 or maybe 2/11, but NOT a 2/18. That is just WAY too much.

Agree. There's a good chance he's the utility guy next year, with Arias as the everyday second baseman.

A 7th inning guy for 8M per? Seriously? Not only is one of Sabes' strengths dumpster diving for bullies, but we also have strong bully prospects down on the farm. I MAY be willing to do 2/13 or so, but no way do I go 3 years, or 8M per. If he is able to get that elsewhere, good luck to him, he was a good Giant.

Even that sounds high.

 

[calsnowskier]

Agree. There's a good chance he's the utility guy next year, with Arias as the everyday second baseman.



Even that sounds high.

Oh, I agree. I was just trying to frame my absolute ceiling on him

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

What do you guys think about Jason Bay or Grady Sizemore. Don't shoot me just two OF ideas who could be cheap, maybe 4th OF' (Bay).

 

[calsnowskier]

What do you guys think about Jason Bay or Grady Sizemore. Don't shoot me just two OF ideas who could be cheap, maybe 4th OF' (Bay).

Both are worth fliers, but neither should be invested in.

Bay has been horrid since going to NY. I have not followed him at all, so I do not know the cause, but he had amazing talent in Pit and Bos, so he may be worth a look.

Sizemore is made of glass. I sense he would probably cost more than Bay, but his ceiling is higher as well. IF he can play 120, he could be a real difference maker. What is his health situation right now? He hasn't played since '11, so that is obviously THE issue with him.

 

[SFGRTB]

Both are worth fliers, but neither should be invested in.

Bay has been horrid since going to NY. I have not followed him at all, so I do not know the cause, but he had amazing talent in Pit and Bos, so he may be worth a look.

Sizemore is made of glass. I sense he would probably cost more than Bay, but his ceiling is higher as well. IF he can play 120, he could be a real difference maker. What is his health situation right now? He hasn't played since '11, so that is obviously THE issue with him.

Last time Sizemore played a full season, 2008. 30 years old now. Pass, he may become the next Juan Uribe somewhere, probably back in Cleveland in 2 years.

 

[filosofy29]

Per KNBR this morning, Brian Sabean "guaranteed" that Hunter Pence would be back.

 

[tzill]

Per KNBR this morning, Brian Sabean "guaranteed" that Hunter Pence would be back.

Yeah, I'd file that in the "dog bites man" category. What was he going to do, decline arb after giving up ToJo, Rosin, and Nate for him??? Of course Pence will be back. The bigger question is: is there going to be a multiyear deal?

 

[tzill]

In other unsurprising news, ManBur accepted AAA assignment and Clay Hensley declined assignment which makes him a FA.

 

[sfsportsfan]

completely forgot about Brown, somehow.

I'd go 3/36 on Pagan then. i still think hes going to get 12, and theres really no replacement that will be cheaper in the free agency.

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

I say let Pagan walk. I know he will be signing a big time deal and while I love what he did for us, would rather just go in a younger direction.

 

[msgkings322]

Jason Wojciechowski weighs in on the offseasons looming for the whole NL West

MLB -- Winter Forecast for teams in National League West - ESPN

 

[gp956]

Jason Wojciechowski weighs in on the offseasons looming for the whole NL West

MLB -- Winter Forecast for teams in National League West - ESPN

Terrible article.

 

[tzill]

Terrible article.

Agreed. Dull.

And fairly uninformed.

 

[tzill]

SabeySabes "confident" he's going to resign Scoots, Burgermeister, and Oxy:

Rosenthal On Hamilton, Hart, Pagan, Indians: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

 

[tzill]

Nakajima if no Scoots?

Rosenthal On Rays, Dempster, Dickey, Nakajima: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

 

[filosofy29]

SabeySabes "confident" he's going to resign Scoots, Burgermeister, and Oxy:

Rosenthal On Hamilton, Hart, Pagan, Indians: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

Nakajima if no Scoots?

Rosenthal On Rays, Dempster, Dickey, Nakajima: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

These all seem like out of left field commentary from people not in the "know". I think Scutaro comes back, but I think Pagan and Affeldt get blown away by offers on the FA market. Have you heard anything backing up Sabean feeling "confident" that all 3 FA's will be back?

As for Nakajima, I have never seen him play and have no ideas/thoughts on him. Once again though, sounds like a writer taking a stab in the dark.

 

[tzill]

Affeldt to get three years from SabeySabes

[MEDIA=twitter]266991716307984384[/MEDIA]

 

[SFAnthem]

Affeldt to get three years from SabeySabes

[MEDIA=twitter]266991716307984384[/MEDIA]

Is it out of the realm of possibility for the G's to sign their 3 FA's and make a move for a Shin Soo Choo?

Gary Brown + ??

 

[tzill]

Is it out of the realm of possibility for the G's to sign their 3 FA's and make a move for a Shin Soo Choo?

Gary Brown + ??

Not out of the realm, but less likely than bringing back Leche and keeping Brown. I don't see them dealing Brown, Panik, Crick, or Heston.