Offseason Discussion-2013 Edition

[filosofy29]

Re-sign: Scutaro 2 ys 2nd yr club option, Pence (arbitration),Melky to a 3 yr club option on 2nd and 3rd year, basically show us you can do it clean.I think both Pagan and Affeldt get contract worth more than they are and we let them go.Hensley,Mota,F Sanchez,Theriot,Penny and Nady all gone.Runzler and the return of B Wilson fill out the BP with Little Bochy and Hembree in reserve.Nick Noonan and Keischnick earn bench spots and we continue with pitching and defense and hopeful timely hitting.
I am not predicting any contract #s
My Lineup would be:
Blanco CF
Scutaro 2B
Cabrera LF
Posey C
Sandoval 3B
Pence RF
Belt 1B
Crawford SS
Pitcher Spot
Rotation:
Cain R
Bumgarner L
Lincecum R
Zito L
Vogelsong R
Bullpen:
Runzler L
Mijares L
Lopez L
Kontos R
Casilla R
Romo R
Wilson R
Bench:
Noonan UTIL
Pill 1B
Keischnick OF
Arias UTIL
H. Sanchez C
Peguero OF

I do not care for any of the high profile FAs and with 2/3 of payroll going to the rotation we cant afford them anyway.

Gary Brown will be the CF eventually...I can see the Giants going with Blanco while Brown starts in AAA.If Blanco struggles through the 1st couple months then maybe Brown get a June call up ala Buster Posey.They need a vet starting pitcher on a minor league deal for injury insurance.No large FA signings and using rookies instead of old vets means payroll doesnt increase by much.

I agree with most of this, pretty much all of it actually.....except for Melky. I don't have any strong feelings one way or the other about him, but I think the Giants think that ship has sailed. I think it's paramount that the Giants re-sign Pagan. Have him play CF for the next two years and then move over to LF when/if Gary Brown is ready. I wouldn't blame Pagan one bit for chasing the money (especially since he has a ring now), but I think his best fit is right here in China Basin. The fans love him, the Giants can pay a pretty good yearly and he's made for this ballpark.

Been reading up on the free agent options out there. Thought I'd ask for all of your opinions:

1. Would you pass on Pagan and non-tender Pence and go after Hamilton?

2. As mentioned above, any interest in bringing back Ross to play left field?

3. Who would you prefer, Torii Hunter or Ross?

4. Who would you prefer: Bourn, Pagan, or B.J. Upton?

1.) No. Too many risks and Hamilton is a head case. I think he's even admitted as much that SF would not be a great place for him to play. It's cold here and he's injury prone and the temptations here would be plentiful.
2.) Wouldn't mind if he came cheap, but he just had an amazing year. I think he belongs in Boston and I think he'll go back there.....so no I guess, lol.
3.) In a vaccuum Ross. In reality, Hunter. I think Hunter has a select list of teams he wants to play for (I think I read that somewhere) though, and I don't recall the Giants being on that list.
4.) Pagan. We already know what he brings in the locker room and I believe he'll be cheaper than Bourn. The only way I'd take Upton is if there were some incentive for the other Upton to want to play with his brother. Otherwise, I'm not a huge fan of his game (although admittedly, I haven't seen him much).

 

[gp956]

Been reading up on the free agent options out there. Thought I'd ask for all of your opinions:

1. Would you pass on Pagan and non-tender Pence and go after Hamilton?

Go after Hamilton? Probably not.

Pass on Pagan? Pagan is replaceable. I wouldn't pass, but I wouldn't want to do anything more than two years plus an option year.

Non-Tender Pence? No. Avoid arb, sign him to a one year contract.

2. As mentioned above, any interest in bringing back Ross to play left field?

No.

Who would you prefer, Torii Hunter or Ross?

Torii Hunter, by a lot.

Who would you prefer: Bourn, Pagan, or B.J. Upton?

Depends on price, I'd say B.J. Upton seems like a good fit:

 

[Stokes1931]

Go after Hamilton? Probably not.

Pass on Pagan? Pagan is replaceable. I wouldn't pass, but I wouldn't want to do anything more than two years plus an option year.

Non-Tender Pence? No. Avoid arb, sign him to a one year contract.




No.



Torii Hunter, by a lot.



Depends on price, I'd say B.J. Upton seems like a good fit:

That's cool! Can you do the same thing with Hunter? Or Ross? I suspect that Ross would have a lot of F7's at the Phone Booth that sailed over the Monster in Beantown. And it isn't just distance, it is the wind. (No Titomac references to this, please.)

 

[gp956]

That's cool! Can you do the same thing with Hunter? Or Ross? I suspect that Ross would have a lot of F7's at the Phone Booth that sailed over the Monster in Beantown. And it isn't just distance, it is the wind. (No Titomac references to this, please.)

Sure. If you want to do it yourself, go over to hittrackeronline.com

Hunter:

Ross:

 

[gp956]

+8. To add to the Ross discussion, that ship has sailed. Put him back in The Phone Booth and prepare to be frustrated. Plus, they'd be buying him back at the peak of his value, and Hunter is a Sabean-type pick-up. I'd prefer Melky, but would understand Torii. Cody? Not so much.

Why not go for both? Most likely would not have to offer more than two years to either.

 

[msgkings322]

Jim Bowden weighs in

Some good stuff to read before the Insider firewall. Including calling Pagan the 'Rowand of 2012' because of how he's going to get overpaid.

Putting a price on Josh Hamilton, Zack Greinke, Michael Bourn and the other top free agents - ESPN

 

[Heathbar012]

Why not go for both? Most likely would not have to offer more than two years to either.

Fine by me. I simply err on the cheaper side when discussing savvy veterans. They might have to save a little bit of dough for those famous deadline pick-ups.

I like your take on B.J. Upton. He will be a free agent in 2013, so the prospect cost should be minimal. Think there is any chance the Rays non-tender him this off-season?

 

[Stokes1931]

Sure. If you want to do it yourself, go over to hittrackeronline.com

Hunter:

Ross:

Thanks, GP. CRoss did better than I suspected. I'd still prefer Hunter, as a team leader, and who is still a defensive plus. I just don't think the magic would happen twice with Ross. He had a wonderful year in Boston, and with all their turmoil, they would be morons for letting him go. CRoss would be cheaper, no doubt, but maybe a cheaper deal with incentives for Hunter? Or a really good chance to play in another WS would attract him for less money. No way Hunter makes what the Angels have been paying him.

 

[gp956]

Fine by me. I simply err on the cheaper side when discussing savvy veterans. They might have to save a little bit of dough for those famous deadline pick-ups.

I like your take on B.J. Upton. He will be a free agent in 2013, so the prospect cost should be minimal. Think there is any chance the Rays non-tender him this off-season?

He's a FA now. The Rays made a Qualifying Offer to him, so, if the Giants sign him, it'll cost a first round draft choice.

 

[gp956]

Thanks, GP. CRoss did better than I suspected. I'd still prefer Hunter, as a team leader, and who is still a defensive plus. I just don't think the magic would happen twice with Ross. He had a wonderful year in Boston, and with all their turmoil, they would be morons for letting him go. CRoss would be cheaper, no doubt, but maybe a cheaper deal with incentives for Hunter? Or a really good chance to play in another WS would attract him for less money. No way Hunter makes what the Angels have been paying him.

...and Ross really wants a two or three year deal. Hunter seems like a really good fit for the Giants.

 

[SFGRTB]

Anyone want to bring the Chris Perez+Shin-Soo Choo back up? We don't have many real good trade pieces left, but seems like the Indians are done with both of them.

One thing to take in to account with Hunter, he was hitting in front of Albert Pujols all year and behind Trout most of it. Pujols OPS before the ASB (.795), after (.935). Hunter before (.761) and after (.866).

 

[calsnowskier]

Anyone want to bring the Chris Perez+Shin-Soo Choo back up? We don't have many real good trade pieces left, but seems like the Indians are done with both of them.

One thing to take in to account with Hunter, he was hitting in front of Albert Pujols all year and behind Trout most of it. Pujols OPS before the ASB (.795), after (.935). Hunter before (.761) and after (.866).

I assume he was their #2 hitter? Well, if we resign Moped, he will not be needed for that high-value slot. He would probably hit 7 for us (Posey/Panda, Panda/Posey, Herk, Belt). If he ends up leading off, he would be hitting ahead of Moped, so his OBP would be more important than his OPS.

Having sad this, it was stated here that he is willing to retire, but will accept a deal with only a small number of teams and the Giants were not one of those teams. I think we are wasting pages and pages of prime-internet real estate with this topic.

 

[SFGRTB]

I assume he was their #2 hitter? Well, if we resign Moped, he will not be needed for that high-value slot. He would probably hit 7 for us (Posey/Panda, Panda/Posey, Herk, Belt). If he ends up leading off, he would be hitting ahead of Moped, so his OBP would be more important than his OPS.

Having sad this, it was stated here that he is willing to retire, but will accept a deal with only a small number of teams and the Giants were not one of those teams. I think we are wasting pages and pages of prime-internet real estate with this topic.

LAD, LAA, NYY, TEX. But that statement was made in July, he recently said he'd sign anywhere. Though he may have just said that so he doesn't diminish his value. He may just be looking for a championship.

IF he did sign (would this mean Pagan is out?), I'd assume he'd play LF, Pagan in CF. He'd slide into the 6th/7th spot to create favorable matchups. Hunter would be a very solid option IMO, upgrade over Blanco. But how much of an upgrade, especially if it's at the cost of Pagan?

And yes, he was the #2 hitter.

 

[Heathbar012]

...and Ross really wants a two or three year deal. Hunter seems like a really good fit for the Giants.

I thought he was arbitration eligible. Does a qualifying offer negate that opportunity or does it just give them a starting point?

 

[MarcoPolo]

...and Ross really wants a two or three year deal. Hunter seems like a really good fit for the Giants.

I thought he was arbitration eligible. Does a qualifying offer negate that opportunity or does it just give them a starting point?

Who are you talking about?
Tommy Hunter is arb eligible (and still "captive" by the Orioles)
Hunter Pence is arb eligible (his last pre-FA year).
Torii Hunter is a FA.
Ross is a FA.

The rules about draft picks have changed - it's no longer about offering arbitration to FAs, it's about offering them a "qualifying offer" (this year, a estimated to be a $13.3M contract). If a "qualifying offer" is made, and the FA is signed by somebody else, the signing team loses their first round pick (unless it's a top-10 pick, then it's their 2nd pick) and the losing team gets a pick in the first supplemental round.

 

[gp956]

I thought he was arbitration eligible. Does a qualifying offer negate that opportunity or does it just give them a starting point?

BJ Upton was arbitration eligible, but he's also a free agent. He's got more than six years of service time. So he's free to sign with any team. I don't know enough about the process to know what impact a qualifying offer would have on the arbitration process.

For instance, does a player have to file for free agency before a QO can be made? Can a player who elects free agency still accept arbitration from their original team?

 

[Heathbar012]

Who are you talking about?
Tommy Hunter is arb eligible (and still "captive" by the Orioles)
Hunter Pence is arb eligible (his last pre-FA year).
Torii Hunter is a FA.
Ross is a FA.

The rules about draft picks have changed - it's no longer about offering arbitration to FAs, it's about offering them a "qualifying offer" (this year, a estimated to be a $13.3M contract). If a "qualifying offer" is made, and the FA is signed by somebody else, the signing team loses their first round pick (unless it's a top-10 pick, then it's their 2nd pick) and the losing team gets a pick in the first supplemental round.

B.J. Upton. Sorry. The conversation turned. I'm confused because BR has Upton as arb.-eligible and a FA in 2013, but gp says he has six years of service time and is a FA now. What does a qualifying offer do besides ensure an extra draft pick for a team that won't be signing that prospect long-term either?

 

[Heathbar012]

BJ Upton was arbitration eligible, but he's also a free agent. He's got more than six years of service time. So he's free to sign with any team. I don't know enough about the process to know what impact a qualifying offer would have on the arbitration process.

For instance, does a player have to file for free agency before a QO can be made? Can a player who elects free agency still accept arbitration from their original team?

Without any research or experience, I'm going to say yes and yes.

 

[tzill]

B.J. Upton. Sorry. The conversation turned. I'm confused because BR has Upton as arb.-eligible and a FA in 2013, but gp says he has six years of service time and is a FA now. What does a qualifying offer do besides ensure an extra draft pick for a team that won't be signing that prospect long-term either?

It does two things: One, it gives the FA the opportunity to make the average of the top 125 players for one year without any negotiation. Two, it gives the offering team some compensation for a highly valued FA.

Just to clarify, there is no arb for FAs. There is only the QO. To be able to make a QO, the FA must have been with his team all year long, and not have an option for 2013. If he's eligible for arb, he's not a FA -- he's under team control unless the team declines arb and then at that point he would become a FA. Teams have until 5 days after the end of the WS to make a QO to an impending FA on their roster. This is also the "exclusive negotiating period" wherein the impending FA can only negotiate with his original club.

Giants eligible for the QO this year were Leche, Burgermeister, Oxy, Riot, and Franchez. Moped was not eligible because he wasn't with the team all year. Huff wasn't eligible because he had a $10MM option. Herk, KCya, Romo, MVP, Shark, Kobe, Mijares, and Weez are all under team control and also not eligible for the QO.

Summary:

Under contract: Zeets, Freak, Horse, LOOGY, Panda, Tron, Bum, Greek, Pick, Fish, Chez3
Arb Eligible: Herk, KCya, Romo, MVP, Shark, Kobe, Mijares, Hensley, ManBur, Petit, Weez*
FA: Huff, Leche, Moped, Affeldt, Oxy, Riot, Mota, Penny, Weez*

Weez is a special case. He will not be offered arb, as that would cost the Giants a minimum of $6.8MM (cannot offer less than 80% of 2012 salary) and I don't see them committing to that kind of contract. So, they'll decline arb and he'll become a FA. At that point, he can sign with any team and I'd expect the Giants to bring him back on a two year deal with heavy incentives based on appearances. If he's the old Weez, he makes $8MM or so, if he's done, get gets $2MM this year and a small buyout for next year. That's my guess anyway. I don't see a hot market for him as there are a lot of reliever FAs and he's coming off his second TJ and a complete year of inactivity.

 

[gp956]

It does two things: One, it gives the FA the opportunity to make the average of the top 125 players for one year without any negotiation. Two, it gives the offering team some compensation for a highly valued FA.

Just to clarify, there is no arb for FAs. There is only the QO. To be able to make a QO, the FA must have been with his team all year long, and not have an option for 2013. If he's eligible for arb, he's not a FA -- he's under team control unless the team declines arb and then at that point he would become a FA. Teams have until 5 days after the end of the WS to make a QO to an impending FA on their roster. This is also the "exclusive negotiating period" wherein the impending FA can only negotiate with his original club.

Giants eligible for the QO this year were Leche, Burgermeister, Oxy, Riot, and Franchez. Moped was not eligible because he wasn't with the team all year. Huff wasn't eligible because he had a $10MM option. Herk, KCya, Romo, MVP, Shark, Kobe, Mijares, and Weez are all under team control and also not eligible for the QO.

Summary:

Under contract: Zeets, Freak, Horse, LOOGY, Panda, Tron, Bum, Greek, Pick, Fish, Chez3
Arb Eligible: Herk, KCya, Romo, MVP, Shark, Kobe, Mijares, Hensley, ManBur, Petit, Weez*
FA: Huff, Leche, Moped, Affeldt, Oxy, Riot, Mota, Penny, Weez*

Weez is a special case. He will not be offered arb, as that would cost the Giants a minimum of $6.8MM (cannot offer less than 80% of 2012 salary) and I don't see them committing to that kind of contract. So, they'll decline arb and he'll become a FA. At that point, he can sign with any team and I'd expect the Giants to bring him back on a two year deal with heavy incentives based on appearances. If he's the old Weez, he makes $8MM or so, if he's done, get gets $2MM this year and a small buyout for next year. That's my guess anyway. I don't see a hot market for him as there are a lot of reliever FAs and he's coming off his second TJ and a complete year of inactivity.

Is this new? Because a team used to be able to offer arbitration to it's own FA, i.e. those players with greater than six years of ML services time.