Offseason Discussion-2013 Edition

[SF11704]

Ok ... let's chat about a another interesting topic for next year. Timmay's last contract year. It will cost us 22M. What they hell do we actually do with him next year? There is no way I see us extending any contract of this magnitude for a any type of reliever. This is a top of the line SP contract. Timmay was a 2 time CY winner but he has struggled quite a bit the past two seasons. Maybe the wear and tear has taken its toll. I just can't believe it's all do to mechanics. But, he's still a very valuable commodity. Do we use this remaining year trying to bring him back to a full SP status or do we look to move him for some other pieces? If he has another 10-15 year I'm not sure what he fetches in the FA market but that may be the way the story plays itself out. There are teams out there that will gamble but in this case it's a rather high price.

 

[Heathbar012]

Jason Bay's contract with New York Mets terminated early - ESPN New York

Sabean will be the first person that his agent calls.

 

[sfsportsfan]

would you guys bring in Bay?

if he settled for 1 year/<1 mill, with incentives, i'd do it in a heartbeat.

 

[SF11704]

would you guys bring in Bay?

if he settled for 1 year/<1 mill, with incentives, i'd do it in a heartbeat.

My gut tells me yes ... but I live in NY and he has been a disaster ever since he signed here. I never really understood what happened. He just looked like another player. Just didn't seem to bring the talent that everyone thought he had. Maybe a change of scenery would help.

 

[Heathbar012]

would you guys bring in Bay?

if he settled for 1 year/<1 mill, with incentives, i'd do it in a heartbeat.

For that. Sure. He is 33, hasn't had a healthy season for three years. The closest he came to a full year in New York was 123 games and he only mustered a .703 OPS an 0.2 WAR. I think the BR dWAR is a poor reflection of his ability in the field, but we can be certain that anything in that department would be a downgrade over Blanco. He would essentially be an improvement over Nady as a fifth outfielder, but Sabes would still be looking for a starting LF. Even with his awful numbers and assumed huge buy-out (fingers-crossed that number gets released), I think someone will offer him more. I wouldn't go above $2 mil without incentives and $4 with them. One year sounds good to me.

 

[calsnowskier]

Is this new? Because a team used to be able to offer arbitration to it's own FA, i.e. those players with greater than six years of ML services time.

Yes.

In the new labor agreement, they replaced the arbitration process with the QO option.

Arb is now only available to players under team control, before their FA years.

 

[Heathbar012]

If anything, hopefully Bay and Upton being on the market somehow brings down Pagan's value. Wishful thinking, I know...

 

[gp956]

Yes.

In the new labor agreement, they replaced the arbitration process with the QO option.

Arb is now only available to players under team control, before their FA years.

 

[Heathbar012]

As far as realizing the most realistic values for Pagan, we will be waiting for the Bourn and Hamilton shoes to drop, no? Anyone else? No one here would go above 3/30, right?

 

[gp956]

As far as realizing the most realistic values for Pagan, we will be waiting for the Bourn and Hamilton shoes to drop, no? Anyone else? No one here would go above 3/30, right?

2/20 with a mutual option year, for me.

 

[Heathbar012]

2/20 with a mutual option year, for me.

How much for the option year?

 

[gp956]

Another one bites the dust: Pads' Yasmani Grandal busted for testosterone use.

 

[gp956]

How much for the option year?

I'd only exercise it if every other option was exhausted, so 10M-12M with a ~4M buyout.

 

[sfsportsfan]

heres what I've been doing instead of homework today:


Giants roughly 78-79 mill between:

Lincecum, Cain, Zito, Pablo, Vogey, Javy, MadBum

MLB traderumors projects arbitration to go like this

Posey -5.9m
Blanco-1.3m
Arias-800k
ManBur-600k
Romo-3.6m
Mijares-1.6m
Wilson-8.5m
Casilla-5.4m
Hensley-1.3m
Pence-13.8m

=42.2m


Total that puts the payroll at 120m

Now, lets play GM. Breakdown what you can see realistically happening.

I’d imagine we don’t tender Weezy a contract, and resign him for less, lets just throw out 2m with incentives, bringing that payroll down to around 114m. I also do not bring back ManBur. The rest I bring back at those prices.
So my starting point is 113m, so heres what I do:
Offer Pagan 4/48m
Offer Scutaro 2/18m
Offer Affeldt 3/24, little less than 1m what League got.

Next:

Offer Jason Bay 1yr/1mill with incentives

Resign Ryan Theriot 1yr/1.25mill

Pagan-CF
Scutaro-2B
Pablo-3B
Posey-C
Pence-RF
Belt-1B
Bay/Blanco-LF
Crawford-SS

Bench:
Arias-INF
Hector Sanchez C
Brett Pill 1B/OF
Bay/Blanco OF
Theriot 2B

Pitching:
Cain, Bum, Timmy, Vogey,Zeet

Affeldt, Casilla, Javy, Mijares, Hensley, Romo, Wilson


Total: 144m

Also work on a mega deal for Posey, or at least lay the ground work for future talks.

 

[calsnowskier]

heres what I've been doing instead of homework today:


Giants roughly 78-79 mill between:

Lincecum, Cain, Zito, Pablo, Vogey, Javy, MadBum

MLB traderumors projects arbitration to go like this

Posey -5.9m
Blanco-1.3m
Arias-800k
ManBur-600k
Romo-3.6m
Mijares-1.6m
Wilson-8.5m
Casilla-5.4m
Hensley-1.3m
Pence-13.8m

=42.2m


Total that puts the payroll at 120m

Now, lets play GM. Breakdown what you can see realistically happening.

I’d imagine we don’t tender Weezy a contract, and resign him for less, lets just throw out 2m with incentives, bringing that payroll down to around 114m. I also do not bring back ManBur. The rest I bring back at those prices.
So my starting point is 113m, so heres what I do:
Offer Pagan 4/48m
Offer Scutaro 2/18m
Offer Affeldt 3/24, little less than 1m what League got.

Next:

Offer Jason Bay 1yr/1mill with incentives

Resign Ryan Theriot 1yr/1.25mill

Pagan-CF
Scutaro-2B
Pablo-3B
Posey-C
Pence-RF
Belt-1B
Bay/Blanco-LF
Crawford-SS

Bench:
Arias-INF
Hector Sanchez C
Brett Pill 1B/OF
Bay/Blanco OF
Theriot 2B

Pitching:
Cain, Bum, Timmy, Vogey,Zeet

Affeldt, Casilla, Javy, Mijares, Hensley, Romo, Wilson


Total: 144m

Also work on a mega deal for Posey, or at least lay the ground work for future talks.

No
No
No

4 years for Pagan at 12 M per? Yikes. I am somewhat OK w/ 2/24, but still not thrilled. The Giants are not interested in him for 4 years. We will not (cross fingers) need a CF by '14. Pagan is not a good corner OF (not be D, but by O).

Moped is 37. I would accept a 1/7 or maybe 2/11, but NOT a 2/18. That is just WAY too much.

A 7th inning guy for 8M per? Seriously? Not only is one of Sabes' strengths dumpster diving for bullies, but we also have strong bully prospects down on the farm. I MAY be willing to do 2/13 or so, but no way do I go 3 years, or 8M per. If he is able to get that elsewhere, good luck to him, he was a good Giant.

 

[Stokes1931]

No
No
No

4 years for Pagan at 12 M per? Yikes. I am somewhat OK w/ 2/24, but still not thrilled. The Giants are not interested in him for 4 years. We will not (cross fingers) need a CF by '14. Pagan is not a good corner OF (not be D, but by O).

Moped is 37. I would accept a 1/7 or maybe 2/11, but NOT a 2/18. That is just WAY too much.

A 7th inning guy for 8M per? Seriously? Not only is one of Sabes' strengths dumpster diving for bullies, but we also have strong bully prospects down on the farm. I MAY be willing to do 2/13 or so, but no way do I go 3 years, or 8M per. If he is able to get that elsewhere, good luck to him, he was a good Giant.

I'm with Cal on each point here, and for the reasons mentioned.

 

[filosofy29]

The absolute most $ I'd give any of the FA's would be these:

Scutaro: 2 yrs $14m
Affeldt: 3 yrs $15m
Pagan: 2 yrs $25.5m

If those couldn't get it done, them I'd say thanks and good luck.

 

[calsnowskier]

The absolute most $ I'd give any of the FA's would be these:

Scutaro: 2 yrs $14m
Affeldt: 3 yrs $15m
Pagan: 2 yrs $25.5m

If those couldn't get it done, them I'd say thanks and good luck.

Moped - too much in both years and $$ for a 37 yo, but if it happens, it is close enough for me to give the BT the botd.

Affeldt/Pagan - Upper side, but I am OK with these.

 

[tzill]

For that. Sure. He is 33, hasn't had a healthy season for three years. The closest he came to a full year in New York was 123 games and he only mustered a .703 OPS an 0.2 WAR. I think the BR dWAR is a poor reflection of his ability in the field, but we can be certain that anything in that department would be a downgrade over Blanco. He would essentially be an improvement over Nady as a fifth outfielder, but Sabes would still be looking for a starting LF. Even with his awful numbers and assumed huge buy-out (fingers-crossed that number gets released), I think someone will offer him more. I wouldn't go above $2 mil without incentives and $4 with them. One year sounds good to me.

I read this morning that the Mets were going to pay him all $21MM left on his contract, but were deferring some payments.

 

[tzill]

As far as realizing the most realistic values for Pagan, we will be waiting for the Bourn and Hamilton shoes to drop, no? Anyone else? No one here would go above 3/30, right?

I'd go 3/30, but no more than 3 years. Brown will be up in 2014 and if we have Oxy that will be a nice transition plan.