Offseason Discussion-2013 Edition

[tzill]

Melky drawing interest:

Five Teams Interested In Melky Cabrera: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

I'd prioritize bringing him back above Affeldt.
1. Scoots
2. Oxy
3. Leche
4. Burgermeister
5. Weez

 

[calsnowskier]

OPS+ adjusts for that. You needn't be worried about Swish. He's solid.

Ops+ considers the psychological affect of a player moving from a bandbox team to a yellwstone team?

I guess that means that Oxy had a very high ops+ last year, and RoRo had an incredibly low ops+ his last season in Philly, right?

 

[tzill]

Ops+ considers the psychological affect of a player moving from a bandbox team to a yellwstone team?

I guess that means that Oxy had a very high ops+ last year, and RoRo had an incredibly low ops+ his last season in Philly, right?

Not sure what you mean by "last year." Pagan had a very nice 121 OPS+ this year. Moving to a "yellowstone team."

Re: Rowand, his 2006-2009 OPS+

2006 (PHI) 86
2007 (PHI) 124
2008 (SF) 94
2009 (SF) 92

He was about 12% better, on average, as a Phillie than as a Gigante. Not surprisingly, his tOPS+ for home/away splits in 2007 show him to get a 10% advantage at Citizens Bank and a 9% disadvantage that year away from home. Essentially, he had a career year his last campaign in Philly, so his drop in production can't be attributed soley (or even mostly, I'd argue) to the park -- if that were so, he'd have had a great year in '06. He clearly did not. In fact, you could have expected him to do about as well as he did in 08/09 given his career numbers up to that point (admittedly, that's a bit of curve fitting after the fact -- not an indictment of SabeySabes). Of course, by 2010 he was done as a productive ballplayer.

So, while OPS+ doesn't necessarily capture "psychological effects" per se, it does adjust production for park effects, which may include psychological factors. That is, it can capture a league-wide happiness at the prospect of hitting in Coors and a league-wide dread at hitting in Petco -- insofar as these things contribute to production.

 

[tzill]

Looks like Agent Ned is looking to dump Queefier:

Report -- Los Angeles Dodgers chasing free agent Torii Hunter - ESPN Los Angeles

Doyers not looking to dump the Queef; Torii would be a reserve and drawing a ton of interest from around the league:

Dodgers Notes: Ehtier, Hunter, Kershaw, Ryu: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

 

[iHATEdodgers]

Not very concerned. I seem to remember this #25 dude who was considered "unclutch" in the playoffs...until he wasn't. Also, hitting in GENERAL struggles in the playoffs, as rotations shorten and bullpens are used more often.

Moreover, you don't build your team for the playoffs, you build it to win the division. Swish would help do that.

We are already built for the playoffs based on our pitching alone. I want dudes who can get it done with the stick when we get there. Swisher has been to the playoffs 7 of the last 8 years and sucked bigtime to the tune of .169 in 154 ABs. That is not sucking in general, that is sucking in major.

I'm not sold.

 

[gp956]

Not sure what you mean by "last year." Pagan had a very nice 121 OPS+ this year. Moving to a "yellowstone team."

Re: Rowand, his 2006-2009 OPS+

2006 (PHI) 86
2007 (PHI) 124
2008 (SF) 94
2009 (SF) 92

He was about 12% better, on average, as a Phillie than as a Gigante. Not surprisingly, his tOPS+ for home/away splits in 2007 show him to get a 10% advantage at Citizens Bank and a 9% disadvantage that year away from home. Essentially, he had a career year his last campaign in Philly, so his drop in production can't be attributed soley (or even mostly, I'd argue) to the park -- if that were so, he'd have had a great year in '06. He clearly did not. In fact, you could have expected him to do about as well as he did in 08/09 given his career numbers up to that point (admittedly, that's a bit of curve fitting after the fact -- not an indictment of SabeySabes). Of course, by 2010 he was done as a productive ballplayer.

So, while OPS+ doesn't necessarily capture "psychological effects" per se, it does adjust production for park effects, which may include psychological factors. That is, it can capture a league-wide happiness at the prospect of hitting in Coors and a league-wide dread at hitting in Petco -- insofar as these things contribute to production.

Fucking tzill is on fucking fire today! Go, man, go!

 

[gp956]

Melky drawing interest:

Five Teams Interested In Melky Cabrera: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

I'd prioritize bringing him back above Affeldt.
1. Scoots
2. Oxy
3. Leche
4. Burgermeister
5. Weez

My Priority List:
1. Affeldt
2. Weezy
3. One of: Melk/Pagan/Hunter
4. Scoots

 

[gp956]

So what happens to a player who turns down the QO, but finds no takers in the FA market at the price he has set for himself? Can he still go back and accept the QO, or is that off the table?

 

[filosofy29]

So what happens to a player who turns down the QO, but finds no takers in the FA market at the price he has set for himself? Can he still go back and accept the QO, or is that off the table?

I could be wrong gp, but I believe the player has to reject the qo in order to become a fa.

Lol wow, I need some coffee. Just re-read what you wrote. No, I don't believe they can go back.

 

[tzill]

We are already built for the playoffs based on our pitching alone. I want dudes who can get it done with the stick when we get there. Swisher has been to the playoffs 7 of the last 8 years and sucked bigtime to the tune of .169 in 154 ABs. That is not sucking in general, that is sucking in major.

I'm not sold.

Still a SSS. Similar to Teh Barry until 2002.

We are not "already built for the playoffs" if Leche and Oxy leave and we don't bring anybody in. We don't get there, IMO.

 

[tzill]

My Priority List:
1. Affeldt
2. Weezy
3. One of: Melk/Pagan/Hunter
4. Scoots

Well, Herk is going to come back; he's been offered arb. Leche is likely to only get a one year "prove it" contract. Oxy is going to get 3/30-35. Assuming all that, how would you rank the five FAs? Something like this?

1. Aff
2. Weez
3. Leche
4. Oxy
5. Scoots

If that's close, why so low with Scoots? The alternatives are dreadful. Also, why so high for Weez? You expecting him to be healthy?

 

[tzill]

So what happens to a player who turns down the QO, but finds no takers in the FA market at the price he has set for himself? Can he still go back and accept the QO, or is that off the table?

No, the QO is time sensative; all 8 players had to accept by yesterday. None did. I would assume that a player could accept the QO and still work out a multiyear deal though.

 

[gp956]

Well, Herk is going to come back; he's been offered arb. Leche is likely to only get a one year "prove it" contract. Oxy is going to get 3/30-35. Assuming all that, how would you rank the five FAs? Something like this?

1. Aff
2. Weez
3. Leche
4. Oxy
5. Scoots

If that's close, why so low with Scoots? The alternatives are dreadful. Also, why so high for Weez? You expecting him to be healthy?

I do expect weez to be healthy by Jul/Aug. Not closer healthy, but bullpen depth healthy. And that's important for off-loading innings from Romo and the rest of the high-leverage crew.

My priority list is mixture of who I think will provide the largest value to the team (which itself is dependent on need) for a price somewhat commensurate with that value. As for Scoots, I want him back, but I think he's only "worth" about 4-5M for two years. Id expect him to ops+ around 95 - which is close to what Arias can provide.

As for LF, the way it's shaking out, I think Sabes can afford to wait out the market. Seems there's a few more guys than there are chairs.

Re: Melky/Pagan, yeah, in a vacuum, I'd rate Melky higher, but there's been too much talk of the clubhouse being down on the Melkman to simply dismiss the possible negative impact he could have on the team.

 

[gp956]

No, the QO is time sensative; all 8 players had to accept by yesterday. None did. I would assume that a player could accept the QO and still work out a multiyear deal though.

Then......assuming a FA is having a tough time getting what he thinks he deserves in the FA market, and decides to simply wait things out, when is giving up a draft pick voided?

 

[tzill]

I do expect weez to be healthy by Jul/Aug. Not closer healthy, but bullpen depth healthy. And that's important for off-loading innings from Romo and the rest of the high-leverage crew.

My priority list is mixture of who I think will provide the largest value to the team (which itself is dependent on need) for a price somewhat commensurate with that value. As for Scoots, I want him back, but I think he's only "worth" about 4-5M for two years. Id expect him to ops+ around - which is close to what Arias can provide.

As for LF, the way it's shaking out, I think Sabes can afford to wait out the market. Seems there's a few more guys than there are chairs.

Interesting...I agree on Weez; I think he'll be back on an acceptable, incentive laden deal. However, for me, his value won't approach Scoots, Leche, or Oxy as they'll presumably be here from day one and are regulars. Scoots is especially important b/c he's a "glue" guy who can mentor Fish, Kobe, Panda, Pick, and train Panik to take his job in 2014. As I said, the alternatives are dreadful. Do you think Arias can provide enough in the 2 hole to make Scoots expendable?

I mean, he IS the equivalent of HanRam, but still.....

 

[tzill]

Then......assuming a FA is having a tough time getting what he thinks he deserves in the FA market, and decides to simply wait things out, when is giving up a draft pick voided?

The pick is voided if/when the FA signs with any team other than his original club. So, the moment Swish is signed by any team but the Spanks, that team relinquishes either it's first or second round pick.

 

[gp956]

Interesting...I agree on Weez; I think he'll be back on an acceptable, incentive laden deal. However, for me, his value won't approach Scoots, Leche, or Oxy as they'll presumably be here from day one and are regulars. Scoots is especially important b/c he's a "glue" guy who can mentor Fish, Kobe, Panda, Pick, and train Panik to take his job in 2014. As I said, the alternatives are dreadful. Do you think Arias can provide enough in the 2 hole to make Scoots expendable?

I mean, he IS the equivalent of HanRam, but still.....

I'm dismissing that. They used to say the same thing about Rowand. And, yes, I think Arias can have similar production to scoots, but he's not really a two-hole hitter. I'd really like to see Belt in the two-hole for an extended stretch. Don't get me wrong, Scooter is a useful player, but he's not close to the type of player we saw from July 31st on. For the right price, something along the lines of a quasi starter/super-utility player, I'd love to have him back.

his value won't approach Scoots, Leche, or Oxy as they'll presumably be here from day one and are regulars.

You're ignoring the price component of my reasoning process. I'm betting someone over pays for Scoots and/or Oxy. Leche will be cheap, I'd like him back, but all indications are the Giants will pass.

 

[gp956]

The pick is voided if/when the FA signs with any team other than his original club. So, the moment Swish is signed by any team but the Spanks, that team relinquishes either it's first or second round pick.

You're not understanding my question. If the player does not sign with any team, surely the compensation has an expiration date.

 

[tzill]

I'm dismissing that. They used to say the same thing about Rowand. And, yes, I think Arias can have similar production to scoots, but he's not really a two-hole hitter. I'd really like to see Belt in the two-hole for an extended stretch. Don't get me wrong, Scooter is a useful player, but he's not close to the type of player we saw from July 31st on. For the right price, something along the lines of a quasi starter/super-utility player, I'd love to have him back.




You're ignoring the price component of my reasoning process. I'm betting someone over pays for Scoots and/or Oxy. Leche will be cheap, I'd like him back, but all indications are the Giants will pass.

Let's assume Scoots gets 2/12. He'd need to give us 1.5 WAR to justify his contract. His last three years WAR are 2.4, 2.6, 1.9. Are you thinking he's going to go Rowand after the contract?

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

You're not understanding my question. If the player does not sign with any team, surely the compensation has an expiration date.

As in if he didn't get a job until the actual season starts. I still think you would get draft pick compensation. Since they declined the QO, the team gets a pick no matter when they sign