Offseason Discussion-2013 Edition

[Stokes1931]

Breaking!

Dodgers shopping Ethier to open a spot for michael bourn.

From Ken Rosenthal.

Isn't Bourne a CF? And don't they have one of the better CF's in the game already with Kemp?

This is surprising. Ethier is a good hitter, but maybe he has burned his bridges with the Dogs. I have seen nothing from my friends who Dodger fans.

This seems beyond stooopid to me, but then again, it is the Dodger way currently. There are still checks in the checkbook.

 

[filosofy29]

Isn't Bourne a CF? And don't they have one of the better CF's in the game already with Kemp?

This is surprising. Ethier is a good hitter, but maybe he has burned his bridges with the Dogs. I have seen nothing from my friends who Dodger fans.

This seems beyond stooopid to me, but then again, it is the Dodger way currently. There are still checks in the checkbook.

The only thing I've heard from my Doggy fan friends in regards to Ethier was that he and Mattingly had some words/discussions about Ethier being benched against LHP's down the stretch. It sounded like Ethier just wanted to play and that no harsh words or irreparable damage were exchanged/was done, but I'm not sure. Some Doggy fans may be tiring of him because of his seemingly lackadaisical (sp?) attitude, but that shouldn't be anything management would worry about enough to trade him.

My guess is if this did happen, that they'd ask Kemp to move to a corner position to take some of the wear and tear off of his body. He had quite a few injuries just this past season and just signed that long contract recently. Who knows if he'd be willing to give up CF without a grudge though.

I for one wouldn't mind Ethier getting traded. I remember how well he hit when he was being protected by Manny Ramirez. If they put him in the two spot and Kemp, Gonzalez and Ramirez are protecting him, I still think he can be a damn scary player.

 

[calsnowskier]

Not a bad signing. I must admit, I always thought Casilla was younger than 32 though. I would have preferred 2 years $11M or something similar, but I trust Sabey-Sabes and crew with BP arms (pitching in general).

I still wonder if BWeezy will come back or if that fence is unmendable (not sure if that's even a word ).

Still wouldn't mind adding somebody like Porcello (as long man/spot starter) and a RHH OF'er (and yes I know Torres hits LHP well or at least he did last year) like Boesch to comete with Kieschnick.

I am not a fan of this signing at all. One of our organizational strengths is in developing and finding cheap bully arms. Why sign a guy who IS good, but beginning to age to a long contract at about market value?

Hembree, Okert, Johnson, Bochey, Surkamp, Runzler, etc etc etc

But, in all things Giants, IBASWT, so...

GREAT SIGN!!!

:popsnoidea:

 

[gp956]

I am not a fan of this signing at all. One of our organizational strengths is in developing and finding cheap bully arms. Why sign a guy who IS good, but beginning to age to a long contract at about market value?

Hembree, Okert, Johnson, Bochey, Surkamp, Runzler, etc etc etc

But, in all things Giants, IBASWT, so...

GREAT SIGN!!!

:popsnoidea:

Casilla seems undervalued by a lot of Giants fans. The last three years he's been pitching at close to an elite level for bullpen arms. And a comment about your list: only Hembree has a chance to match the attributes the Giants seem to desire in high leverage bullpen arms, i.e. velocity and control.

 

[gp956]

Isn't Bourne a CF? And don't they have one of the better CF's in the game already with Kemp?

This is surprising. Ethier is a good hitter, but maybe he has burned his bridges with the Dogs. I have seen nothing from my friends who Dodger fans.

This seems beyond stooopid to me, but then again, it is the Dodger way currently. There are still checks in the checkbook.

Is having two starting OF who can play a great CF a bad thing now? New info: Dodgers are claiming they've received calls from other teams on Ethier, but they aren't actively shopping him.

 

[SFGRTB]

I am not a fan of this signing at all. One of our organizational strengths is in developing and finding cheap bully arms. Why sign a guy who IS good, but beginning to age to a long contract at about market value?

Hembree, Okert, Johnson, Bochey, Surkamp, Runzler, etc etc etc

But, in all things Giants, IBASWT, so...

GREAT SIGN!!!

:popsnoidea:

In a season where Penny, Loux, Hacker and Hensley prominently held the final 2 spots in the Pen, I would say that finding the cheap bully arm wasn't quite a strength this season. Plus, Casilla is one of the few guys in our pen who pitches at a high velocity.

 

[calsnowskier]

Breaking!

Dodgers shopping Ethier to open a spot for michael bourn.

From Ken Rosenthal.

Is the Guggenheim Group driving this org into the ground even worse than McCourt?

I read an article recently (probably from a link here) that looked at the TV deal that they "have" and found that the deal actually does NOT exist, and that there are a lot of snags in the process of getting it off the ground. Basically, when it comes, it will not be nearly as profitable as originally reported.

If their Drunken-Sailor-dom continues, they will be in some SERIOUS trouble. Not only are they handing out big annual contracts, they are handing out LONG big annual contracts.

This could get VERY ugly...

 

[calsnowskier]

In a season where Penny, Loux, Hacker and Hensley prominently held the final 2 spots in the Pen, I would say that finding the cheap bully arm wasn't quite a strength this season. Plus, Casilla is one of the few guys in our pen who pitches at a high velocity.

I dont agree.

We lost the anchor of the pen for the season in the first week of the season. Then we lost the primary long man for 2/3 of the season about a month later.

They were able to ad Kontos to the mix for (next to) free. While Penny, and Loux were painful to watch, they were really only used in gas-can-approved situations. Hensley, while not a barn-burner, did not do a bad job for guy #11 or 12 in the pen.

 

[Nasty_Magician]

Is having two starting OF who can play a great CF a bad thing now? New info: Dodgers are claiming they've received calls from other teams on Ethier, but they aren't actively shopping him.

Maybe not bad, but not ideal either. I remember when Mike Cameron and Carlos Beltran were sharing the field there were a lot of problems with communication and both ignoring each other when they would call each other off. Maybe that's an isolated case, but it's something to think about.

 

[gp956]

Maybe not bad, but not ideal either. I remember when Mike Cameron and Carlos Beltran were sharing the field there were a lot of problems with communication and both ignoring each other when they would call each other off. Maybe that's an isolated case, but it's something to think about.

I understand your caveat, but I also dismiss it.

 

[gp956]

Is the Guggenheim Group driving this org into the ground even worse than McCourt?

I read an article recently (probably from a link here) that looked at the TV deal that they "have" and found that the deal actually does NOT exist, and that there are a lot of snags in the process of getting it off the ground. Basically, when it comes, it will not be nearly as profitable as originally reported.

If their Drunken-Sailor-dom continues, they will be in some SERIOUS trouble. Not only are they handing out big annual contracts, they are handing out LONG big annual contracts.

This could get VERY ugly...

I wouldn't expect the Dodger's to run out of money. What was the Yankees' Yes Network priced at recently? Eight Billion? Ranger's 20 year RSN deal brings in an easy 100M a year.

 

[SFGRTB]

Here's the terms on the contract, $4.5 million in 2013 and 2014, $5 million in 2015 and a $1 million buyout option in 2016 coming to $15 million guaranteed.

He took a pay cut this year to get long term guaranteed money.

 

[gp956]

David Schoenfield: Why I didn't rank the Giants in my top 10

 

[gp956]

Schoenfeld is using regression to the mean to explain why the top performers in 2012 will do worse in 2013, but then failing to use it to explain why the bottom performances will continue. You see that and you know the author is simply "playing" at analysis.

 

[filosofy29]

David Schoenfield: Why I didn't rank the Giants in my top 10

lol, gotta love some of this. Thanks for the find gp.

1.) The Pythagorean THEOREM. Takes away the notion that sometimes teams don't play for the big inning when it makes more sense to just take the lead. For example, with a tie game, a runner on 2nd and nobody out, Scutaro prefers to try to take the ball to the RF side instead of trying to yank a double down the line. He grounds out to 2B, but gets the runner over to 3rd. For example 2, a team is up 10 - 0 and puts in their gas cans to get their innings in and the score ends up 10 - 6 even though the game was never really in doubt. Some managers manage the games, not the pyth. method. Don't get me wrong, I agree that the Pythagorean Theorem can be a decent hypothetical test.....

2.) It's hard to say one way or another whether they'll regress in 1 run games or not. I don't blame him for bringing this up, but I wouldn't classify it as a strong point for a reduction in 2013. Overall though, I don't gripe much with this one.

3.) I'll give him this one, that does seem like a random stat, but I do believe in the ability of "clutch". Once again, I don't gripe much with this either.

4.) Now THIS is a strong reason (and the first legit reason imhumbleo) as to why the Giants won't be as strong next season.

5/9.) Lol, this I LOVE! So Posey and Pagan are going to regress, but Timmay is going to stay close to his horrific 2012 season. I like to eat my cake, but have it too. Douchey argument is douchey.

6.) I agree that Hunter Pence is overrated.....but this is a bad argument. Pence was HORRID as a Giant and they still won the division and the WS. I have a hard time believing that Pence is going to do worse than what he did as a Giant last year. FAIL. It's almost as if he didn't watch Giants games last year or look at Pence's stats as a Giant.

7.) Another strong reason. I don't envision Scutaro putting up a full season worth of what he did last season. That said, if he consistently gets runners in scoring position and gives quality at bats, he's better than what the Giants trotted out there for most of last year up until Scutaro's arrival (except for a hot two months of Theriot).

8.) Most teams would kill for the Giants starting 5, yet since they don't have a legit 6th or 7th pitcher, they're in trouble. Understandable that they've pitched a ton over the last 3 years.....but this seems like you could poke this hole in a lot of teams. Not a huge gripe with this, but it doesn't seem like a legit reason to keep them out of the top 10. I don't think most of his top 10 had legit 6th or 7th starters.

10.) Fair enough, I think the Dbags may get a little better, but who knows. The Padres finished strong in 2011 too, a lot of good that did for them in 2012. I do agree that the Dodgers appear much more formidable.

I think we could probably eliminate some of these and give 5 good to decent reasons why the Giants aren't in the top 10, but he's grasping at straws to make his argument appear stronger with "10 reasons". Overall, it seems like a lot of unknowns.....hopefully he's not in an area with strong winds.....

 

[gp956]

#7. He's conveniently leaving off the fact that second base was a problem for the Giants most of the year. Scutaro doesn't have to hit .362 for the year to be an overall upgrade over what we saw in 2012. It's not analysis to simply point to a hot streak and say that won't continue.

2B played to an OPS+ of 92 last year, which includes Scutaro's hot streak. A full year of Scutaro is projectable to beat that.

 

[gp956]

#5 He says Posey won't hit .336 again? Again, that's not analysis, but even if he doesn't, given his age, you'd expect his power numbers to improve, so his overall production, as given by wOBA, is likely to increase.


#11 Pablo Sandoval? Doesn't have any more hammate bones to break.

 

[filosofy29]

#5 He say's Posey won't hit .336 again? Again, that's not analysis, but even if he doesn't, given his age, you'd expect his power numbers to improve, so his overall production, as given by wOBA, is likely to increase.


#11 Pablo Sandoval? Doesn't have any more hammate bones to break.

Perhaps Schoenfield is relying on Pablo missing time for appendix and tonsil removals?

 

[calsnowskier]

#5 He say's Posey won't hit .336 again? Again, that's not analysis, but even if he doesn't, given his age, you'd expect his power numbers to improve, so his overall production, as given by wOBA, is likely to increase.


#11 Pablo Sandoval? Doesn't have any more hammate bones to break.

And an improved Belt and Crawford. Belt was inconsistent last year, but REALLY showed signs of breaking out and beginning to understand the MLB game. Crawford, I think, has the potential to be more Scutaro than Scutaro ever was. He consistently puts up some of the BEST ABs on the team.

 

[filosofy29]

David Schoenfield: Why I didn't rank the Giants in my top 10

This kind of reminds me of this.