Offseason Discussion-2013 Edition

[SFAnthem]

Perhaps Shinjo is available for another go around with the Giants?

Not a perma-ban but must wear day glo orange wristbands and leggings on opening day as punishment

 

[tzill]

Yes.

I think I would too. Would the Fish?

 

[Stokes1931]

I think you're on to something... We did do better with him in exile

 

[calsnowskier]

Just a quick thought. Stanton unhappy in Miami. Would you give up MadBum for him?

No.

We have 2 rings with a team built on pitching. When we were a hitting team, all we could muster was a NL ring. We are also dealing from a position if strength. We do not have to make the risky deal.

 

[calsnowskier]

You brought it on yourself, you Shinjo-loving preacher-man.

 

[gp956]

I think I would too. Would the Fish?

Don't know. Depends on what their strengths are in the minors, I think.

 

[tzill]

No.

We have 2 rings with a team built on pitching. When we were a hitting team, all we could muster was a NL ring. We are also dealing from a position if strength. We do not have to make the risky deal.

Clearly, we don't HAVE to make that deal, but where is the "risk?" They're comparable ages, both healthy. Stanton under team control til 2016, Bum under control til 2017.

I don't get the "risk," that is different from any other trade (i.e. guy traded away stays healthy, guy acquired gets hurt).

He's 22, has a career OPS+ of 140, and an all-star.

I'd do that deal, and I love MadBum.

 

[tzill]

Just heard an expert on KNBR say that he was pretty sure Oxy was going to re-sign with the Gs at "about $9MM a year for three years."

Jim Duquette. Former Mets GM.

He also thinks SabeySabes might be after Victorino.

 

[filosofy29]

Jim Duquette. Former Mets GM.

He also thinks SabeySabes might be after Victorino.

Well I hope Duquette is right about Pagan.

I'm not sure if it's because he really did look like he was washed up last season or if it's just because I think he's a huge douchebag.....but I'm not a huge fan of acquiring Victorino. Obviously, if the price is right, I'd be ok with it, but I really hope Pagan comes back.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Jim Duquette. Former Mets GM.

He also thinks SabeySabes might be after Victorino.

The Giants have a bad history of signing former Phillies centerfielders. And he has da suck in the post-season recently (and da suck in the regular season even more recently).

Just Say No.

 

[the_broom]

And to that I say:

Verlander Schmerlander.

I love this...the 2010 and 2012 Giants ring winning teams had a few things in common...

1. Buster Freakin' Posey
2. A guy that goes off in the playoffs (Ross, Scoots)
3. The ability to beat the "big name" pitching when it counted...i.e. Verlander, Cliff Lee, Halladay, Carpenter, Hamels, etc...

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

Jon Heyman reporting we have checked in with Michael Bourn

SIGN HIM SABES

 

[tzill]

Well I hope Duquette is right about Pagan.

I'm not sure if it's because he really did look like he was washed up last season or if it's just because I think he's a huge douchebag.....but I'm not a huge fan of acquiring Victorino. Obviously, if the price is right, I'd be ok with it, but I really hope Pagan comes back.

He's a career average player. He's 31, so still in his prime. I wouldn't give him more than a year or more than $8MM though. Some stats from the last three years (2010, 2011, 2012):

OPS+: 101, 130, 91
WAR: 2.8, 5.2, 2.4
dWAR: 0.4, 0.5, 0.4

2013 projection: 265/331/407 15 HR 30 SB.

1/8 I'd be in. He IS a dick though.

 

[tzill]

Jon Heyman reporting we have checked in with Michael Bourn

SIGN HIM SABES

He's going to be VERY EXPENSIVE and want LOTS OF YEARS.

Pass....

 

[gp956]

He's a career average player. He's 31, so still in his prime. I wouldn't give him more than a year or more than $8MM though. Some stats from the last three years (2010, 2011, 2012):

OPS+: 101, 130, 91
WAR: 2.8, 5.2, 2.4
dWAR: 0.4, 0.5, 0.4

2013 projection: 265/331/407 15 HR 30 SB.

1/8 I'd be in. He IS a dick though.

Let's park adjust that projection for AT&T:

.258/.329/.387 7HR

I'd rather go with Blanco, if it comes down to the two of them.

 

[tzill]

Let's park adjust that projection for AT&T:

.258/.329/.387 7HR

I'd rather go with Blanco, if it comes down to the two of them.

I think you've greatly overestimated the AT&T HR effect, and perhaps lost sight of the fact that 1/2 his games would be on the road.

Do you seriously seeing Blanco putting up superior numbers?

 

[gp956]

I was joking a bit with that projection .......but let's see.......

Last year, after his slow start, ZIPS projected Shane to hit .269/.336/.434 from June 26th on, but he actually hit .260/.318/.375. I think I nailed it. Projections based on stats tend to be a little slow to recognize a player hitting the wall.

Oh my...he was even worse after Aug 1: .245/.316/.351 and he only hit two homeruns as a Dodger. Did you notice how many PA he had last year? 666.

I definitely prefer Blanco to Shane now.

 

[tzill]

I was joking a bit with that projection .......but let's see.......

Last year, after his slow start, ZIPS projected Shane to hit .269/.336/.434 from June 26th on, but he actually hit .260/.318/.375. I think I nailed it. Projections based on stats tend to be a little slow to recognize a player hitting the wall.

Oh my...he was even worse after Aug 1: .245/.316/.351 and he only hit two homeruns as a Dodger. Did you notice how many PA he had last year? 666.

I definitely prefer Blanco to Shane now.

That IS mojo you just can't fuck with...

 

[calsnowskier]

Clearly, we don't HAVE to make that deal, but where is the "risk?" They're comparable ages, both healthy. Stanton under team control til 2016, Bum under control til 2017.

I don't get the "risk," that is different from any other trade (i.e. guy traded away stays healthy, guy acquired gets hurt).

He's 22, has a career OPS+ of 140, and an all-star.

I'd do that deal, and I love MadBum.

It is a huge risk. We have a winning formula with Bum paying a key part. dealing him, even for Stanton, would affect every part of the team. Chemistry, pitching, bullpen...

The team has had success by going pitching first. A trade like that would change that focus. Why mess with it?

 

[tzill]

It is a huge risk. We have a winning formula with Bum paying a key part. dealing him, even for Stanton, would affect every part of the team. Chemistry, pitching, bullpen...

The team has had success by going pitching first. A trade like that would change that focus. Why mess with it?

To take advantage of a situation. To get better. Giancarlo Stanton's OPS+ for his career (373 games) is 140. That's All-Star level production from a slightly above average corner OF who is 22! He's 40% better than league average and is five years from his prime! These guys come along about once a generation.

Bum's ERA+ is 112 over 84 starts. Almost exactly the same amount of time that Stanton has been starting, maybe a little more. That's solid, middle of the order production from a SP who is 22. That's pretty amazing, but he is only about 12% above the league average for his career. He is also 22 and five years from his prime.

Put another way, if Bum is one unit above average (let's call that "good") then Stanton is 3 units above average (I'd call that "elite").

Same age, same experience. Bum is signed whereas Stanton is coming up on his arb years.

We'd be stupid not to make that trade. But, I'm doubting the Fish would do it either.