Official Mariners arm-chair GM offseason thread

[seahawksfan234]

Mariners are apparently interested in Carlos Santana.

He's probably looking at a contract around 3 years $35-$40m or so.

I could live with it. He's not optimal, but he has averaged 28 HRs, 34 2Bs, with a .259/365/.477 triple slash line the past two seasons. He takes a lot of pitches and has improved his defense at 1B and has the ability to play OF and C while being a switch hitter.

It's an improvement over Alonso/Valencia and by the time his contract is up, Evan White could be knocking on the door.

 

[seahawksfan234]

I'm a big fan of trying to get Abreu, but we really don't have much to give up.

 

[NWinAZ]

I'm a big fan of trying to get Abreu, but we really don't have much to give up.

Neidert and Vogelbach for Abreu and Garcia

 

[NWinAZ]

The big moves keep coming:

 

[Msfann]

The big moves keep coming:

Yikes this guy looks bad.

 

[wazzu31]

Neidert and Vogelbach for Abreu and Garcia

You think that'd be enough?

 

[NWinAZ]

You think that'd be enough?

Probably not. Not sure how well Neidert is thought of around the league. Send Gamel as well. I like both guys a lot on Sox.

 

[NWinAZ]

Many teams will be looking to sign Japanese two-way player Shohei Otani, but the Seattle Mariners may have Ken Griffey, Jr. help recruit him.
According to Ken Rosenthal on the MLB Network, the Seattle Mariners will push hard to sign Japanese superstar Shohei Otani when the two-way player is posted. They hope to take a contingent of people to Japan to woo Otani. According to Rosenthal, they would like Hall of Famer Ken Griffey, Jr. to be part of that group and Griffey is reportedly on board.

The Mariners have a good history with Japanese players, including the greatest import of them all, Ichiro Suzuki, who played 12 seasons with the team and had 2533 of his 3080 career hits. Ichiro was a phenomenon right from the start. He won the AL Rookie of the Year and AL MVP Awards and helped the 2001 Mariners tie a major league record with 116 wins.

Ichiro joined a Mariners team that already had highly-regarded closer Kasahiro Sasaki, who had pitched many years in Japan. They were teammates with the Mariners through Sasaki’s final season with the team in 2003 and the presence of Sasaki helped ease Ichiro’s adjustment to the states.

More recently, the Mariners had starting pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma as a mainstay in the rotation from 2012 until last year, when he struggled with injuries and only made six starts. In six seasons with the Mariners, Iwakuma was 63-39 with a 3.42 ERA.

So the background is there for Otani. Seattle has been a good location for Japanese players. According to this article by Shannon Drayer, the team has a very good support system in place, including trainers and interpreters who are highly regarded for their work. Also, the Mariners’ reputation in Japan is very good.

A major roadblock to Otani coming to the states has been removed. It’s being reported that Otani’s team, the Nippon Ham Fighters, has been grandfathered in under the old agreement, which expired on October 31. This agreement will allow the team to make $20 million rather than the $150,000 they would have received under the new system.

That’s nice for the Ham Fighters but not so much for Otani. Because he is under 25 years old, he can only receive as much money as the MLB team he signs with has in their international signing pool. The team with the most in their pool is the Texas Rangers, who can spend $3.535 million on a signing bonus. Without this restriction, Otani would likely be a $20 million per year player.

Once Otani is signed, he will be under team control for six years, just like a high school or college draft pick. He will make the league minimum next year and won’t be eligible for arbitration until 2020. His team could sign him to an extension, but they’ll have to do so without appearing as if there were any underhanded shenanigans going on. MLB could enact severe penalties if they believe a team has a secret deal in place.

As mentioned above, the Texas Rangers ($3.535 million) have the most in their signing pool, with the New York Yankees ($3.25 million) and Minnesota Twins ($3.245 million) close behind. The Mariners are one of seven teams who can give Otani $1.5 million or more.

Realistically, though, Otani is already foregoing many millions of dollars by coming to the U.S. now instead of a couple years down the road so a few million here or there is not likely to make a difference. Otani will make his decision based on where he would most like to play and what team would be best for him. The Mariners could be that team.

At ESPN, Dan Szymborski used ZiPS to project Otani’s statistics based on what he’s done in the his career in Japan. He has Otani projected for an ERA in the 3.40 range for around 140 innings per year. ZiPS also projects Otani to be a .260/.330/.480 hitter in around 300 at-bats per year. If he does come over and is allowed to hit and pitch, he would be a very interesting player to watch, not only in real baseball but also in the fantasy baseball world.

NEXT: Mariners Mount Rushmore
As much as the Seattle Mariners would love to sign Otani, it won’t be easy. Big name franchises like the Yankees and Red Sox are interested and have a better track record of winning. The Mariners haven’t made the playoffs since 2001, which was Ichiro’s rookie year. But they’ll make their pitch, hopefully with the help of the legendary Ken Griffey, Jr., and perhaps they can sign baseball’s next superstar.

 

[wazzu31]

Probably not. Not sure how well Neidert is thought of around the league. Send Gamel as well. I like both guys a lot on Sox.

I guess I'm not totally sure on the value of Gamel, but the Sox swindled the Cubs and Yankees so just seems they'd want more. This offseason is pivotal because one of the three OF is expendable, and I truly am not sure which one they should part with. Heredia, to me, seems to have the most upside. I like Gamel, and Haniger is injury prone and susceptible to really bad bonehead plays, but also has more upside IMO than Gamel.

 

[wazzu31]

Mariners are apparently interested in Carlos Santana.

He's probably looking at a contract around 3 years $35-$40m or so.

I could live with it. He's not optimal, but he has averaged 28 HRs, 34 2Bs, with a .259/365/.477 triple slash line the past two seasons. He takes a lot of pitches and has improved his defense at 1B and has the ability to play OF and C while being a switch hitter.

It's an improvement over Alonso/Valencia and by the time his contract is up, Evan White could be knocking on the door.

Him being a switch hitter makes him more attractable than Duda, Bruce or any of the lefty hitters. They need a full time 1B so they can carry another pitcher...but all of this could change if they get Otani, he can't be a DH as long as Cruz is here so 1B is the only other option that won't kill his arm if he really is going to play the field.

 

[EVille3]

Him being a switch hitter makes him more attractable than Duda, Bruce or any of the lefty hitters. They need a full time 1B so they can carry another pitcher...but all of this could change if they get Otani, he can't be a DH as long as Cruz is here so 1B is the only other option that won't kill his arm if he really is going to play the field.

I thought I read that Otani pitches with one arm and plays the field with the other. Not 100% on that.

 

[SeattleCoug]

I guess I'm not totally sure on the value of Gamel, but the Sox swindled the Cubs and Yankees so just seems they'd want more. This offseason is pivotal because one of the three OF is expendable, and I truly am not sure which one they should part with. Heredia, to me, seems to have the most upside. I like Gamel, and Haniger is injury prone and susceptible to really bad bonehead plays, but also has more upside IMO than Gamel.

Im not really a huge Gamel guy. If you wanna platoon him and Heredia at one spot I can live with that. I don't think either are everyday guys but Heredia is the much better defender and can also play decent in CF.

 

[wazzu31]

Im not really a huge Gamel guy. If you wanna platoon him and Heredia at one spot I can live with that. I don't think either are everyday guys but Heredia is the much better defender and can also play decent in CF.

That's a spot that I don't mind if they platoon. Gamel is very hard to figure out, but I really don't think there is a question Heredia has the most upside especially defensively. But if Jerry is going to wheel and deal one of them is expendable in a deal. I guess my question is I wonder how much the rest of the league views Gamel since almost certaintly one of them would be involved in a deal to improve with the lack of prospects they have and Cano, Cruz and Felix really can't be dealt.

 

[NWinAZ]

Lookout Landing’s 2018 Mariners Offseason Plan, Part III: Filling in the Edges

 

[NWinAZ]

Lookout Landing’s 2018 Mariners Offseason Plan, Part II: Position Players

 

[NWinAZ]

Lookout Landing’s 2018 Mariners Offseason Plan, Part I: Starting Pitching

 

[seahawksfan234]

Yikes this guy looks bad.

Sounds like he'll fit right in.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Lookout Landing’s 2018 Mariners Offseason Plan, Part III: Filling in the Edges

Lookout Landing’s 2018 Mariners Offseason Plan, Part II: Position Players

Lookout Landing’s 2018 Mariners Offseason Plan, Part I: Starting Pitching

Skimmed through all of those and actually came in here to post them, then saw you did. Very thorough analysis, good job by them.

For anyone who hasn't read them, I'd recommend.

 

[cezero]

Ryon Healey

Pagan will be an all star for the A's

 

[Cloud]

Ryon Healey

Pagan will be an all star for the A's

Came here to post the same thing. Healy will withered here bc this organization lacks the ability to develop young talent. While pagan thrives.