Official Mariners arm-chair GM offseason thread 2018-2019

[ulmax]

Cal Raliegh would be the offence catcher
/1B/DH

Of interest in draft overall

Top lvl pitching

Of/1b

Short stops..as maney as possible

Again as with last year the catchers
You draft
Well be important ....they always are

 

[ulmax]

I don't make 3b a priority cuz..ss and 2b
Move to 3b a lot

So if you get a lot of short stops
.
You will automatic

End up with a 3b

 

[seahawksfan234]

A-Rod more than lived up to his first contract and realistically I think Cano will live up to his because of the way he plays. Machado should be able to live up to his because he is like Cano but Machado was just vocal about his lack of effort. Harper is the exact opposite where he will miss time because he is the opposite of those two in terms of effort.

I agree. I genuinely believe that Cano still plays well in at 2B and probably has another few years before he's a liability there. I think he will age well and even in the final year of his contract will probably still be hitting .270. Shame that he got busted for PEDs, he has a very strong chance of putting up the best career offensive numbers from a 2B in MLB history and be in the discussion as one of the greatest of All-Time to play the position.

I don't see Harper or Machado as poor investments due to their youth if the team can carry those contracts. At 26 years old, you're buying their 26-36 year seasons.

Harper is kind of interesting and IMO more of a gamble for the reasons you mentioned. Additionally I see him as more of an upside guy. He can give you a year like 2015 or a year like 2016.

 

[seahawksfan234]

How the Mariners are using data, biomechanics and technique...

This article was pretty interesting. I know some of you are a bit meh on the whole analytics approach, but it seems as if the Mariners have a plan to address his defensive shortcomings. For those of you who don't have a subscription to the Athletic; a summary of the article is that the Mariners have identified the issues he had in Chicago and have him on a plan to address them.

He's not going to suddenly become a gold glover, but if these adjustments work it could go a long way in helping him become a more well-rounder player.

 

[Duders]

 

[wazzu31]

I agree. I genuinely believe that Cano still plays well in at 2B and probably has another few years before he's a liability there. I think he will age well and even in the final year of his contract will probably still be hitting .270. Shame that he got busted for PEDs, he has a very strong chance of putting up the best career offensive numbers from a 2B in MLB history and be in the discussion as one of the greatest of All-Time to play the position.

I don't see Harper or Machado as poor investments due to their youth if the team can carry those contracts. At 26 years old, you're buying their 26-36 year seasons.

Harper is kind of interesting and IMO more of a gamble for the reasons you mentioned. Additionally I see him as more of an upside guy. He can give you a year like 2015 or a year like 2016.

I think Cano’s contract was worth it regardless. Just like if I were an owner I’d give Machado the deal and not remotely touch a 10 year deal with Harper. Harper is the type of player you want with his recklessness in the field but he has been injury prone because of it. Machado uses zero effort in his game outside of hitting, much like Cano and neither of them have the body type of Pujols where you know he will be essentially useless. Pujols is Edgar in the latter part of his career with his body. I can’t see Machado or even Cano getting to that point until their contracts run out. Harper is just a liability because A. He isn’t going to be there for 150 plus games B. The shift has made him essentially Kyle Seager but with a personality that makes him entertaining and worth admission. This is all IMO though.

 

[wazzu31]

How the Mariners are using data, biomechanics and technique...

This article was pretty interesting. I know some of you are a bit meh on the whole analytics approach, but it seems as if the Mariners have a plan to address his defensive shortcomings. For those of you who don't have a subscription to the Athletic; a summary of the article is that the Mariners have identified the issues he had in Chicago and have him on a plan to address them.

He's not going to suddenly become a gold glover, but if these adjustments work it could go a long way in helping him become a more well-rounder player.

Analytics is fine and is essentially just more data on top of old school. But in zero way has a team built off analystics ever won which is the goal. It needs to be a blend of supreme talent then fill in the rest of the team with those types. The Oakland A’s have a massive myth behind them as though the team is built off of analytics. Every single season they have made the playoffs is because they ended having guys with top talent then filled the rest of the roster. There is now the myth of the Rays pitching staff from last year but they had the best pitcher in the AL in Snell and Archer who would be the ace of the M’s.

As well as the shift being used realistically isn’t new, just used more because unlike left handed hitters of old the new crop can’t go the other way. The shift is one example of why Edgar is a HOFer, Griffey bunted and got cheap hits off of it and Edgar made the other teams pay and made them play Griffey straight up. Guys like Seager, Harper, Rizzo and Gallow just refuse to take the cheap hit. So the numbers are on the side of shifting. Bunt for 20 easy hits and have the guys behind them drive them in 5 out of those 20 times and the numbers change and say it isn’t worth it. Much like the opener will end up a gimmick if enough of them go Fernando Rodney and change the numbers to where the real starter comes in and ends up facing the heart of the order 3 times instead of the two which is the entire point of the opener. The shift and opener is the read option of baseball, so it’s up to the hitters to either become NFL defenses or continue being college defenses.

 

[seahawksfan234]

I think Cano’s contract was worth it regardless. Just like if I were an owner I’d give Machado the deal and not remotely touch a 10 year deal with Harper. Harper is the type of player you want with his recklessness in the field but he has been injury prone because of it. Machado uses zero effort in his game outside of hitting, much like Cano and neither of them have the body type of Pujols where you know he will be essentially useless. Pujols is Edgar in the latter part of his career with his body. I can’t see Machado or even Cano getting to that point until their contracts run out. Harper is just a liability because A. He isn’t going to be there for 150 plus games B. The shift has made him essentially Kyle Seager but with a personality that makes him entertaining and worth admission. This is all IMO though.

Good points, especially regarding Machado versus Harper. I think Harper has a higher ceiling and prior to you bringing those up, I probably would've preferred Harper although you're probably right. My bigger concern about a guy like Machado is if a big contract makes him lazy and unwilling to put in the work with conditioning, although there's nothing really to support that. I remember people justifying Miguel Cabrera being traded to the Tigers due to similar concerns and that clearly never impacted his game. Even guys like Hanley Ramirez still aged pretty well.

Can't disagree with you on any of that though tbh.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Analytics is fine and is essentially just more data on top of old school. But in zero way has a team built off analystics ever won which is the goal. It needs to be a blend of supreme talent then fill in the rest of the team with those types. The Oakland A’s have a massive myth behind them as though the team is built off of analytics. Every single season they have made the playoffs is because they ended having guys with top talent then filled the rest of the roster. There is now the myth of the Rays pitching staff from last year but they had the best pitcher in the AL in Snell and Archer who would be the ace of the M’s.

As well as the shift being used realistically isn’t new, just used more because unlike left handed hitters of old the new crop can’t go the other way. The shift is one example of why Edgar is a HOFer, Griffey bunted and got cheap hits off of it and Edgar made the other teams pay and made them play Griffey straight up. Guys like Seager, Harper, Rizzo and Gallow just refuse to take the cheap hit. So the numbers are on the side of shifting. Bunt for 20 easy hits and have the guys behind them drive them in 5 out of those 20 times and the numbers change and say it isn’t worth it. Much like the opener will end up a gimmick if enough of them go Fernando Rodney and change the numbers to where the real starter comes in and ends up facing the heart of the order 3 times instead of the two which is the entire point of the opener. The shift and opener is the read option of baseball, so it’s up to the hitters to either become NFL defenses or continue being college defenses.

I think with the Athletics they used analytics and "money ball" to find undervalued players who ended up being what you'd consider top talent. I see the value in it being in blending it with other ways of talent evaluation.

@PolarVortex brought up a good point regarding the shift that eventually there will be a new crop of guys who come up with the ability to hit against the shift. As it filters down to the lower levels, talent evaluators will likely begin to put a bigger emphasis on an ability to hit across the field.

 

[seahawksfan234]

In his first spring training start, Felix Hernandez gave us a preview of what to expect in 2019:

1.1 IP, 4 H, 3 ER.

 

[wazzu31]

I think with the Athletics they used analytics and "money ball" to find undervalued players who ended up being what you'd consider top talent. I see the value in it being in blending it with other ways of talent evaluation.

@PolarVortex brought up a good point regarding the shift that eventually there will be a new crop of guys who come up with the ability to hit against the shift. As it filters down to the lower levels, talent evaluators will likely begin to put a bigger emphasis on an ability to hit across the field.

I’m not questioning the A’s doing a good job with analytics with rounding out there roster, but I firmly disagree with using Moneyball as the basis of an organization and why I personally think the moneyball/A’s thing is an overblown myth. Some parts true but they’ve never made the WS with it nor have they even made the playoffs when they didn’t have multiple all stars.

 

[wazzu31]

Good points, especially regarding Machado versus Harper. I think Harper has a higher ceiling and prior to you bringing those up, I probably would've preferred Harper although you're probably right. My bigger concern about a guy like Machado is if a big contract makes him lazy and unwilling to put in the work with conditioning, although there's nothing really to support that. I remember people justifying Miguel Cabrera being traded to the Tigers due to similar concerns and that clearly never impacted his game. Even guys like Hanley Ramirez still aged pretty well.

Can't disagree with you on any of that though tbh.

Both are tough to call, I just know if I’m an owner I’d want Harper because he should generate more money and as an owner there is zero chance I’d want Machado as the face of my organization. But if I were a GM I’d want Machado as he can play SS and 3B and really is a minimal risk through the duration of the contract.

 

[mcnabb7542]

In his first spring training start, Felix Hernandez gave us a preview of what to expect in 2019:

1.1 IP, 4 H, 3 ER.

I turn the game on yesterday and it amazes me the amount of head shaking I was doing watching this guy work...

Granted the franchise did run his arm into the ground, but my god how many more years are we gonna be stuck watching this guy go to the mound....

 

[Duders]

Wonder what the "King's Court" will look like this season during the times when Felix takes the hill. The dude is just embarrassing - how sad for a guy who peaked a few years ago.

 

[mcnabb7542]

Wonder what the "King's Court" will look like this season during the times when Felix takes the hill. The dude is just embarrassing - how sad for a guy who peaked a few years ago.

They will still show and take their shirt and hot dog deal, Im sure the front office will keep trying to get butts in the seats

 

[seattlefan75]

I turn the game on yesterday and it amazes me the amount of head shaking I was doing watching this guy work...

Granted the franchise did run his arm into the ground, but my god how many more years are we gonna be stuck watching this guy go to the mound....

I think this is his last year and I would imagine if he has a terrible year he will probably retire. Free agency is really competitive as we can all see so unless he is willing to take a dirt crap contract to play for another team after making so much I dont see him pitching anymore

 

[seattlefan75]

I will defend felix and say that we owe it to him to give him a slot in the back end of the rotation because this is a throw away season anyway. He has given us monster seasons and we couldnt do anything to surround him and get him to the playoffs. He literally could have just left the team via free agency and still get a monster contract with another team but decided to stay. He could have gone to the yankees, red sox or dodgers they would have easily paid him what he was looking for but as a mariner fan when he retires he should be on the mount rushmore of mariner players in history

 

[seahawksfan234]

I turn the game on yesterday and it amazes me the amount of head shaking I was doing watching this guy work...

Granted the franchise did run his arm into the ground, but my god how many more years are we gonna be stuck watching this guy go to the mound....

Didn't see it live, just saw the box score.

Luckily this should be the last year of suffering we endure. With our luck, he'll sign somewhere else and pull a C.C. Sabathia to revive his career.

 

[seahawksfan234]

I’m not questioning the A’s doing a good job with analytics with rounding out there roster, but I firmly disagree with using Moneyball as the basis of an organization and why I personally think the moneyball/A’s thing is an overblown myth. Some parts true but they’ve never made the WS with it nor have they even made the playoffs when they didn’t have multiple all stars.

Certainly. It takes a multi-faceted approach.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Both are tough to call, I just know if I’m an owner I’d want Harper because he should generate more money and as an owner there is zero chance I’d want Machado as the face of my organization. But if I were a GM I’d want Machado as he can play SS and 3B and really is a minimal risk through the duration of the contract.

I don't think any team that can't afford to be top 5 or so in payroll should commit that much each year to one player personally.