"Official" 2012 Pirates' W-L Prediction Thread

[magnumo]

Wow. The Pirates lose their second consecutive sweep..... this time at the hands of the Reds..... and find themselves at 72-70 (.507) with 20 games left to play.

72-70 projects to 82-80 (if one believes that they can maintain that pace through seasons's end), and puts sychmd in the sweet spot.

If they continue their pace since the 100-game mark (14-28/.333), they will finish at 79-83.

We STILL have 13 remaining contestants:

88-74 steelparrot...(16-4)
87-75 thecrow124...(15-5)
84-78 pixburgher66...(12-8)
83-79 Darkstone42...(11-9)
82-80 sychmd...(10-10)
81-81 NorthCoastSteelersFan...(9-11)
80-82 Burns80y...(8-12)
79-83 smokeyburgess...(7-13)
76-86 rmilia1...(4-16)
75-87 element1286...(3-17)
74-88 stillmatic32...(2-18)
73-89 evolver115...(1-19)
72-90 powwow35...(0-20)

 

[sychmd]

82-80 as we sweep our last series to get over the hump(not even sure who it is against - hopefully someone who already clinched and resting their starters!)

here is my prediction from preseason.
we will exercise our demons as atlanta will rest starters having clinched the WC and setting their rotation and resting SP and position players for the hectic grind of WC entries have to go.

atlanta will also have a guilt complex for the turmoil and organizational chaos they precipitated for our beloved pirates leading to self-sabotaging behavior and almost handing us a winning season on a silver platter.

the 2 big questions are:
1. can we hold on long enough to get to the last series with 79 or 80 wins.
2. are we brave enough to grab the opportunity the braves hand us or will we out self-sabotage the braves (seems like we've been practicing that skill the lst 42 games as mags has aptly pointed out.)

here's to hoping for the best........................
and expecting the worst.

 

[magnumo]

So..... Correia pitches a masterful game, and the Pirates split their 4-game series with the Cubs. They are now 74-72 (.507) with 16 games to play.

That keeps them on pace to finish at 82-80, mathematically eliminates evolver115 and powwow35, and keeps sychmd in the sweet spot. (I hope, HOPE, HOPE that they break the CLS, regardless of who wins the contest.)

The remaining 11 contestants, along with the Pirates' record in the remaining 16 games which will make each a winner:

88-74 steelparrot...(14-2)
87-75 thecrow124...(13-3)
84-78 pixburgher66...(10-6)
83-79 Darkstone42...(9-7)
82-80 sychmd...(8-8)
81-81 NorthCoastSteelersFan...(7-9)
80-82 Burns80y...(6-10)
79-83 smokeyburgess...(5-11)
76-86 rmilia1...(2-14)
75-87 element1286...(1-15)
74-88 stillmatic32...(0-16)

 

[stillmatic32]

That would suck if I was right.

 

[sychmd]

That would suck if I was right.

both them losing all and it sucking are still possible.

 

[Darkstone42]

There was a point not long ago when I would have considered winning this a failure by the team. Now I see it as a best-case scenario.

How quickly things change.

 

[magnumo]

Swept by the Brewers, the Pirates fall below .500 to 74-75 (.497) with 13 games to play. That projects to 80-82, putting Burns80y in the sweet spot.

If they continue their pace since the 100-game mark, they will finish at 78-84, and no one will win the contest.

Steelparrot has been mathematically eliminated.

Here are the 10 remaining contestants:

87-75 thecrow124...(13-0)
84-78 pixburgher66...(10-3)
83-79 Darkstone42...(9-4)
82-80 sychmd...(8-5)
81-81 NorthCoastSteelersFan...(7-6)
80-82 Burns80y...(6-7)
79-83 smokeyburgess...(5-8)
76-86 rmilia1...(2-11)
75-87 element1286...(1-12)
74-88 stillmatic32...(0-13)

 

[thecrow124]

We may actually have a shot tonight, Correia is pitching............................ouch, who would have thought that he would be our best pitcher in the second half this year?

 

[magnumo]

The Pirates take one of three from the Astros, leaving their record at 75-77 (.493) with 10 games to play. That projects to 80-82, keeping Burns80y in the sweet spot.

However, thecrow124 and stillmatic32 have been mathematically eliminated.

The remaining 8 contestants:

84-78 pixburgher66...(9-1)
83-79 Darkstone42...(8-2)
82-80 sychmd...(7-3)
81-81 NorthCoastSteelersFan...(6-4)
80-82 Burns80y...(5-5)
79-83 smokeyburgess...(4-6)
76-86 rmilia1...(1-9)
75-87 element1286...(0-10)

 

[magnumo]

The Pirates win one of four from the Mets and find themselves at 76-80 (.487) with 6 games to play. That projects to 79-83, putting smokeyburgess in the driver's seat.

Pixburgher66, Darkstone42, and element1286 have been mathematically eliminated.

The remaining 5 contestants are:

82-80 sychmd...(6-0)
81-81 NorthCoastSteelersFan...(5-1)
80-82 Burns80y...(4-2)
79-83 smokeyburgess...(3-3)
76-86 rmilia1...(0-6)

 

[Darkstone42]

The Pirates win one of four from the Mets and find themselves at 76-80 (.487) with 6 games to play. That projects to 79-83, putting smokeyburgess in the driver's seat.

Pixburgher66, Darkstone42, and element1286 have been mathematically eliminated.

The remaining 5 contestants are:

82-80 sychmd...(6-0)
81-81 NorthCoastSteelersFan...(5-1)
80-82 Burns80y...(4-2)
79-83 smokeyburgess...(3-3)
76-86 rmilia1...(0-6)

 

[magnumo]

The Pirates win one of three from the Reds in their penultimate series of the season, leaving their record at 77-82 (.484), with three games to play against the Braves.

Sychmd, NorthCoastSteelersFan, and rmilia1 have been mathematically eliminated, leaving only 2 contestants with a chance to win:

80-82 Burns80y...(3-0)
79-83 smokeyburgess...(2-1)

If the Pirates sweep the Braves, Burns80y will win the contest. If the Pirates win the series, 2 games to 1, smokeyburgess will win the contest. On the other hand, if the Braves win the series, there will be no winner..... since no one predicted 77 or 78 wins.

I ran a similar contest for 4 seasons (2006, 07, 08, 09) back on the old ESPN.com Pirates' board. The key difference in those contests was that we did not limit the number of participants who could predict the same record. Not surprisingly, due to the different rule, plus a larger number of board regulars, we had a larger number of contestants: 97 in 2006, 81 in 2007, 102 in 2008, and 88 in 2009. Incredibly, out of all those predictions, no one got it right in 2006 or 2007.

In 2008, only one participant (SteelerFan0886) predicted the Pirates final record of 67-95, giving us our first winner. In 2009, the Pirates went 62-99..... having one postponed game that was not made up. In that year, Fundamentality was the only poster who predicted 62-100..... so he was declared the winner by predicting the Pirates' correct win total.

I got disgusted enough after the 2009 season that I decided NOT to run the contest in 2010..... and the Pirates confirmed my disgust by going 57-105.

After resuming the contest on this board for 2012..... and again becoming disgusted with my favorite team..... I intend to take a break from the Pirates and baseball as soon as the regular season ends. Perhaps I'll be rejuvinated enough by Spring Training in 2013 to run the contest again. On the other hand, perhaps I'll be dead by then.

 

[Darkstone42]

They're going to sweep the Braves and make that blown save by Hanrahan look like the game that cost them the .500 season, aren't they?

 

[dare2be]

No, they are just trying to make amends for messing up my prediction of 80-82 and getting swept by the Braves. Now they will be 80-82 by sweeping the Braves.

 

[magnumo]

We're definitely gonna have a winner. With the Pirates having won the first two games of their final series against the Braves, they're at 79-82.

- If they win today, Burns80y will win the contest at 80-82.

- If they lose, smokeyburgess will be our winner at 79-83.

No disrespect to smokey..... but since I ALWAYS want to see the Pirates win, I'm rooting for an 80-82 finish.

 

[smokeyburgess]

No disrespect taken, Mags. Since the Braves are trotting out what is essentially a AAA lineup in this series, and Burnett is pitching today, there's a good chance the Buccos will sweep the hated Braves and finish 80-82.

By the way, didn't one of the contestants volunteer to send the winner of the contest a bobble-head or something like that? It would be small consolation for watching the Pirates collapse during the last third of the season, but it might soften the blow.

 

[smokeyburgess]

Well, the Braves surprised me by playing most of their starting lineup today and are ahead 4-0 in the bottom of the 9th, so it looks like ol' Smokey will be the winner of the contest. I checked the thread and didn't see a post by a contestant offering a prize (was that in last year's contest?), but no matter -- I'll settle for the glory.

But as disappointed as I am by "the big collapse," I'd still like to thank the Pirates for making it exciting for most of the season. It reminded me of how I used to feel when the Pirates were consistent contenders in the early 90s. Let's hope the progress they've shown in the past two seasons is a harbinger of good things to come!

 

[magnumo]

Congratulations to smokeyburgess: our winner!

No disrespect taken, Mags. Since the Braves are trotting out what is essentially a AAA lineup in this series, and Burnett is pitching today, there's a good chance the Buccos will sweep the hated Braves and finish 80-82.

By the way, didn't one of the contestants volunteer to send the winner of the contest a bobble-head or something like that? It would be small consolation for watching the Pirates collapse during the last third of the season, but it might soften the blow.

Congratulations, smokey!

I don't recall anyone ELSE offering a bobblehead this year. However, when I've done this contest in the past, I have offered a nominal prize to the winner..... consisting of a choice of a few Pittsburgh sports memorabilia items..... or $30 toward a case of your favorite beer (or any other beverage at your discretion).

The first winner chose a full, unopened (but almost assuredly stale) box of Wheaties showing one of the Penguins Stanley Cup Championship teams.

The second winner chose a Ronnie Paulino bobblehead (even though Paulino had already left the Pirates).

Since I have another one of those Paulino bobbleheads, I plan to include it in your choice of prizes. (Aren't you thrilled???) I need to update an online page which shows pictures of your choices..... plan to do that in the next day or two. I'll post again when those pix are ready.

Again..... congratulations, smokeyburgess!!

 

[Darkstone42]

Congratulations, smokey!

I'm kind of glad they lost today, honestly, because had they won, that blown save in the Reds series would have been even more painful.

 

[magnumo]

Hey, smokeyburgess. Congratulations again on winning our 2012 Pirates' W-L contest, with your prediction of 79-83.

You have won not only the glory and prestige which comes from winning the contest ..... but also a nominal prize, which consists of your choice of any one of the following items:

1. Willie Stargell (Lumber Company) bobblehead from 2008. This bobblehead was opened only to take the photograph. It comes with the original packaging and box.

2. Iron City Beer can, commemorating Franco Harris as a 1990 NFL Hall of Famer. The can is unopened, but contains no beer.

3. Sports Illustrated "Special Issue" commemorating the Steelers' victory in Super Bowl XL, with MVP Hines Ward on the cover. Magazine is in very good condition.

4. Ronnie Paulino bobblehead from 2007, with original packaging and box (opened only to take the photo). Best actual likeness of the player's face which I've seen on a bobblehead.

5. $30 toward a case of your favorite beer (or any other beverage of your choice).

Photographs of the first four choices can be seen at the link below. Once you get to that "flickr photostream" page, you can see a larger version of any of the pix by clicking on it. (May take a few seconds for the enlargement to load.)

Flickr: magnumo43's Photostream

Smokey..... please send me an email at magnumo43 at yahoo dot com (re-format that into a typical email address) so that we can make arrangements for me to send your prize to you.