"Official" 2012 Pirates' W-L Prediction Thread

[grayghost668]

63-99 dead last worse in baseball,,,the owner just doesn't care

 

[stillmatic32]

74-88

 

[magnumo]

Acknowledgements and Apologies

To Forty_sixand2 (68-94) and stillmatic32 (74-88): I have added your predictions to the list.

To huskers1217 (82-80) and grayghost668 (63-69): I'm sorry but I cannot add your predictions to the list. Both have already been taken. (Please see the rules in the original post in this thread.) Sychmd picked 82-80 on February 15, and WVUinVegas picked 63-99 on February 8. The good news is that predictions remain available only one game off from your original choices. Please pick a prediction that's not already on the list (below) and I'll be happy to add it. Thanks much.

87-75 thecrow124
84-78 pixburgher66
83-79 Darkstone42
82-80 sychmd
80-82 Burns80y
79-83 smokeyburgess
76-86 rmilia1
75-87 element1286
74-88 stillmatic32
73-89 evolver115
72-90 powwow35
71-91 Illinest
70-92 sloshyklu
69-93 thedddd
68-94 Forty_Sixand2
67-95 TheBurgh88
66-96 magnumo
63-99 WVUinVegas

 

[magnumo]

The Pirates are 8-16 this Spring, soon to be 8-17 as they're getting blown out today by Minnesota. I know that many believe that Spring Training performance means nothing. I would agree, except when it's part of a pattern..... all the years of losing, plus the horrendous second half of 2011. I've seen enough. I'm dropping my prediction from 66-96 to 61-101..... and even that may be too optimistic. I'm holding at above 60 wins based on a continuing hope that the starting pitching will be better than last year.

My change leaves the list looking like this:

87-75 thecrow124
84-78 pixburgher66
83-79 Darkstone42
82-80 sychmd
80-82 Burns80y
79-83 smokeyburgess
76-86 rmilia1
75-87 element1286
74-88 stillmatic32
73-89 evolver115
72-90 powwow35
71-91 Illinest
70-92 sloshyklu
69-93 thedddd
68-94 Forty_Sixand2
67-95 TheBurgh88
63-99 WVUinVegas
61-101 magnumo

I will continue to accept new predictions or changes to existing predictions until the regular season begins. The Pirates' regular season opener is scheduled for next Thursday, April 5, at 1:35pm. Assuming that game is played as scheduled, that will be our official cut-off time for predictions.

Good luck to all participants..... and I hope I'm dead wrong with my prediction.

 

[steelparrot]

I'll come in late and try to get an optimistic 'price is right' style victory

88-74 sorry crow

 

[NorthCoastSteelersFan]

I'll go with 81-81...almost certainly wishful thinking.

Have heard that Mario would like to buy the team and rebuild it correctly, but Nutting won't sell, because he manages to make money while spending...well...nutting. Too bad. Maybe he'll step into an open manhole while counting his loot.

My other favorite baseball team is the Indians, so I'm used to suffering.

 

[magnumo]

Acknowledging.....

.....entries #19 and #20. We have steelparrot at 88-74 and NorthCoastSteelersFan at 81-81. Here's the updated list, organized by wins:

88-74 steelparrot
87-75 thecrow124
84-78 pixburgher66
83-79 Darkstone42
82-80 sychmd
81-81 NorthCoastSteelersFan
80-82 Burns80y
79-83 smokeyburgess
76-86 rmilia1
75-87 element1286
74-88 stillmatic32
73-89 evolver115
72-90 powwow35
71-91 Illinest
70-92 sloshyklu
69-93 thedddd
68-94 Forty_Sixand2
67-95 TheBurgh88
63-99 WVUinVegas
61-101 magnumo

 

[magnumo]

LAST CHANCE!!!

I will accept new predictions or changes to existing predictions as long as they're time-stamped prior to 1:35pm today. After that, our list is "cast in stone." Good luck to all participants.

 

[thecrow124]

Now that the season has started, I have a question, guaged more towards those that predicted a worse record than last season. Why do you believe we will have a worse record?
The thread started this date showing a position by position comparison (granted the 2009 team)gives us a broad look, basically, we are either equal to or better at every position.
I may be blinded by something and was just wondering if someone could clarify it for me. I understand that the Pirates finished last season horribly, but they also played above their heads for 100 games. I tend to subscribe to the belief that over the course of 162 games everythign will eventually even out and teams will have pretty close to the record that they deserve. 70 wins last year was probably a fair estimate for us.
Which brings me again to this season, if, position by position we have improved and teams in our division have gotten worse, how is it that we would have a worse record?

 

[magnumo]

In reply to thecrow124.....

My reasons for believing that the Pirates will have a worse record this season:

1. First and foremost is their "recent" performance. For the last 62 games of 2011, plus 29 Spring Training games this year, the Pirates performed at a less-than-.333 clip. (That's not a small sample.)

2. It's all about pitching, especially the starting rotation. I worry about the performance of the rotation, despite the first three regular season games. (That IS a small sample.)

--I don't see how the pitching can match last year's first half, even with the addition of Bedard and Burnett.

--The injury bug is lurking. Bedard is injury-prone. Both Burnett and Morton are on the DL. Correia finished last season on the DL.

--Burnett is coming off a couple of bad years, during which his velocity has been steadily decreasing. I'm not as confident as many that he will experience a miraculous rebirth in the National League.

--Will Morton recover and learn how to get lefties out?

--Will McDonald gain consistency and command?

--Will Correia contribute anything good?

--Will Karstens match his 2011 performance?

3. I don't believe that the team has improved position-by-position, at least not to any significant degree.

--I see no significant improvement at SS, with an aging Clint Barmes replacing Cedeno. Barmes may be "steadier," but playing at PNC half the time, I expect Barmes' "power" to disappear and his OPS to be about the same (or worse) as compared to Cedeno's 2011.

--I see a downgrade at catcher. Barajas is unquestionably better than Doumit on defense (but probably NOT better on D than Snyder or McKenry). Barajas' offense (career OBP of .284 -- that's appalling) is significantly weaker than Doumit and I expect much of his power to disappear as well.

--I have essentially no confidence that Alvarez will contribute much. In fact, I believe he should have started the season at AAA and earned his way back to the Pirates' roster.

--I expect Walker to perform about the same as he did last season.

--Tabata and Presley have yet to prove that they can stay healthy and perform up to expectations as major league regulars.

--McCutchen has been very consistent (in terms of OPS) at a good but not great level over his first three seasons. I HOPE for a breakout, but I'll believe it when..... he breaks out.

--First base? Will a Jones-McGehee platoon or a Jones-Hague platoon perform as well as Lee did? Probably not. Will that platoon perform as well as Adam LaRoche did? Maybe..... maybe not. Will Pirate first-basemen perform as is typical for a competitive team? Seems unlikely.

--The bench: McGehee and McLouth are coming off bad seasons. McKenry can't hit. Navarro is an unproven rookie. Harrison is what he is.

Believe it or not, I've always been a glass-half-full kind of guy in life. I'm NOT happy that, in terms of the Pirates, I clearly hold a glass-half-empty (or worse) perspective.

I fully admit to the POSSIBILITY that, if all/most things go right, the Pirates COULD sustain decent performance over the entire 2012 season. I have been expecting and predicting a significant move toward competitiveness for quite a few years now..... but it hasn't happened. I made a personal vow to myself that the Pirates would NOT underperform my prediction for 2012.

Bottom line: No Pirate fan anywhere will be happier than I will be if the Pirates improve over last year's performance..... and beat the heck out of my prediction. I'm just not holding my breath.

 

[Illinest]

I think that the Pirates have a slightly better team but I also think that their 2011 record was a little bit better than it should've been.

Although I think that I actually predicted 1 extra win this year? I don't remember.

The injury bug could strike but then again we could have good luck too. I'm not predicting our luck. I just think that our talent level will come out somewhere around 71 wins.

 

[magnumo]

The season is exactly 1/6 complete (before today's game), and the Pirates stand at 12-15 (.444). If they maintain that pace, they will finish the season at 72-90..... which puts powwow35 in the sweet spot.

88-74 steelparrot
87-75 thecrow124
84-78 pixburgher66
83-79 Darkstone42
82-80 sychmd
81-81 NorthCoastSteelersFan
80-82 Burns80y
79-83 smokeyburgess
76-86 rmilia1
75-87 element1286
74-88 stillmatic32
73-89 evolver115
72-90 powwow35
71-91 Illinest
70-92 sloshyklu
69-93 thedddd
68-94 Forty_Sixand2
67-95 TheBurgh88
63-99 WVUinVegas
61-101 magnumo

 

[magnumo]

With exactly one third of the season behind us, the surprising (at least to me) Pirates find themselves in second place in the NL Central with a record of 28-26. That projects to 84-78 for the season, putting pixburgher66 in the current sweet spot in our contest:

88-74 steelparrot
87-75 thecrow124
84-78 pixburgher66
83-79 Darkstone42
82-80 sychmd
81-81 NorthCoastSteelersFan
80-82 Burns80y
79-83 smokeyburgess
76-86 rmilia1
75-87 element1286
74-88 stillmatic32
73-89 evolver115
72-90 powwow35
71-91 Illinest
70-92 sloshyklu
69-93 thedddd
68-94 Forty_Sixand2
67-95 TheBurgh88
63-99 WVUinVegas
61-101 magnumo

 

[magnumo]

I had intended to update this thread at the halfway point..... but my internet outage and week at the beach prevented that.

After 88 games, the Pirates are a remarkable 10 games over .500, at 49-39. That projects to 90-72 over the full season, which is better than any of our predictions (especially mine). Steelparrot is closest, so he gets the bold text:

88-74 steelparrot
87-75 thecrow124
84-78 pixburgher66
83-79 Darkstone42
82-80 sychmd
81-81 NorthCoastSteelersFan
80-82 Burns80y
79-83 smokeyburgess
76-86 rmilia1
75-87 element1286
74-88 stillmatic32
73-89 evolver115
72-90 powwow35
71-91 Illinest
70-92 sloshyklu
69-93 thedddd
68-94 Forty_Sixand2
67-95 TheBurgh88
63-99 WVUinVegas
61-101 magnumo

 

[magnumo]

Last season, after 100 games, the Bucs' record was 53-47 (.530). This year, we're 5 wins better and 16 games over .500 at 58-42 (.580).

At this point, it seems that only a rash of injuries to the Buc' top players could keep the team from breaking the losing streak..... since we would need to go 22-40 (.355) the rest of the way to have another losing season.

The Pirates' current winning percentage (.580) projects to a full season record of 94-68 (imagine THAT), which would almost surely land our team in the playoffs. That finish would be 6 wins more than our most optimistic predictor, steelparrot at 88-74..... but he's the closest, so he continues to get the bold text.

Just noticed that I'm only 4 wins away from being the first participant to be mathematically eliminated..... and I couldn't be happier! (Well..... actually..... I guess I COULD be happier..... if the Bucs were well out in front in the NL Central..... but there's no doubt about it, I'm absolutely ecstatic with 58-42!)

88-74 steelparrot
87-75 thecrow124
84-78 pixburgher66
83-79 Darkstone42
82-80 sychmd
81-81 NorthCoastSteelersFan
80-82 Burns80y
79-83 smokeyburgess
76-86 rmilia1
75-87 element1286
74-88 stillmatic32
73-89 evolver115
72-90 powwow35
71-91 Illinest
70-92 sloshyklu
69-93 thedddd
68-94 Forty_Sixand2
67-95 TheBurgh88
63-99 WVUinVegas
61-101 magnumo

 

[pixburgher66]

Man...I wish I had been a bit more optimistic

 

[sychmd]

i think i was the first to pick a winning record.
guarded optimism as i didnt go big.

 

[dare2be]

As the last bidder, I'll bid $1.



amidoinitrite?

 

[magnumo]

As the last bidder, I'll bid $1.



amidoinitrite?

I admit to being completely baffled by this post.

1. What does it mean?

2. What is dare2be bidding on?

3. Is he doing WHAT right?

Any explanation (from dare2be or anyone else) would be appreciated.

 

[Darkstone42]

I admit to being completely baffled by this post.

1. What does it mean?

2. What is dare2be bidding on?

3. Is he doing WHAT right?

Any explanation (from dare2be or anyone else) would be appreciated.

It's a Price Is Right joke.