Mike Wallace to SF?

[NinerSickness]

Bill Barnwell on Wallace:

At 25, Mike Wallace is the most promising young receiver in all of football. He's accomplished more during his first three years in the league than any other wide receiver in recent memory, despite unfavorable conditions, regular absences from his starting quarterback, and the presence of two of the league's most decorated wide receivers ahead of him on the depth chart when he entered the league. Any team lucky enough to have Mike Wallace on its roster can expect to have the best wideout in football in its uniform for the next several seasons.

 

[BINGO]

Originally Published: March 1, 2012

Four teams that should target Wallace
Four teams that should go after the Pittsburgh Steelers' restricted free agent
By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider

Mike Wallace could be a great asset for Tom Brady or Andy Dalton, among other quarterbacks.

For any NFL team, jumping into the free-agency pool can be a hazardous exercise fraught with risk, but that potential risk increases dramatically when dealing with the restricted free-agent (RFA) pool.

Unlike unrestricted free agents (UFA), RFA candidates this season will cost a prospective new employer not only the dollar value of a contract, but also as much as a first-round selection in the 2012 NFL draft (depending on the RFA tender placed on the player by his 2011 team).

The first-round tender RFA situation is exactly what Pittsburgh Steelers wideout Mike Wallace finds himself in now, but despite that high cost it is rumored that there is still interest in acquiring him.

The reason for that interest is Wallace has a history of elite performance. Last October, I showed how Wallace is a better game-breaker than Calvin Johnson, and Grantland's Bill Barnwell recently wrote an article offering more evidence as to Wallace's dominant production levels.

However, not all situations are created equal when it comes to teams that may want to acquire Wallace.

There are four main factors that will impact how motivated each team should be to sign him. These are:

1. Their level of need for a dominant vertical wide receiver
2. Their salary-cap situation
3. The level of first-round pick they would have to give up
4. Their incentive level for making life tougher for the Steelers (from a salary-cap and/or personnel perspective)

By gauging each of these on a scale of 1-10 (1 being not motivated at all, 10 being completely motivated), we can come up with a "Wallace factor," indicating just how interested the four teams with a realistic chance to sign him should be in pursuing the Steelers wide receiver.

Note: Salary-cap information is fluid and changing daily, so teams' specific cap numbers aren't listed.




New England Patriots

Need for vertical wide receiver: 6 of 10
Level of first-round draft choice: 10 of 10 (No. 31 pick)
Steelers incentive level: 9 of 10
Total Wallace factor points: 25

That Tom Brady was able to post an 11.6 vertical yards per attempt (VYPA) mark (fifth best in the league) despite throwing 91 vertical passes to tight ends, speaks volumes for the genius of New England's creative play calling. However, it still doesn't mask the fact Brady's 10.9 stretch vertical YPA (SVYPA) ranked tied for 20th. (Note: Vertical passes are aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield, while stretch vertical passes are thrown 20 or more yards).

This problem calls for the addition of a wideout who can take over the Randy Moss role that helped Brady have one of the best seasons in NFL history in 2007.

The draft is deep at the wide receiver position but none of the wideout prospects who will be available at the No. 31 pick are likely to be anywhere near as good as Wallace, especially in the next few years when the Patriots have a viable Super Bowl window. Throw in the high ceiling in projected cap room and the ability to severely damage the Super Bowl chances of a tough AFC rival, and it makes the Wallace-to-New England move a near no-brainer.



San Francisco 49ers

Need for vertical wide receiver: 7
Level of first-round draft choice: 10 (No. 30 pick)
Steelers incentive level: 6
Total Wallace factor points: 23

The 49ers nearly made it to the Super Bowl last year with their mix of a conservative offense and bruising defense, but the odds of their long-term success will greatly increase if they can improve their downfield passing numbers. Alex Smith has shown in the past that he is capable of posting near top-10 caliber statistics in various route depth categories, but San Francisco's subpar wide receiving corps last year was a prime reason he ranked 17th in VYPA (10.4).

The Niners may not have quite the incentive as the AFC contenders to hinder the Steelers' chances to keep Wallace, but their low first-round draft status and healthy salary-cap standing make this acquisition more than a sensible transaction.




Baltimore Ravens

Need for vertical wide receiver: 4
Level of first-round draft choice: 9 (No. 29 pick)
Steelers incentive level: 10
Total Wallace factor points: 23

At first glance, Wallace looks like a great addition for the Ravens because of the low cost of the first-round draft pick and the chance to put one over on a hated division rival.

At a closer look, however, the move isn't quite as solid as it seems to be on the initial review.

Baltimore already has a dominant vertical and stretch vertical threat in Torrey Smith (12.3 VYPA, 14.2 SVYPA) and its salary-cap situation, while solid, could become hampered with the addition of a high-priced free agent.

These factors are among the reasons Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome recently stated that Baltimore wasn't interested in signing Wallace, though it would still be a great move at the right price.



Cincinnati Bengals

Need for vertical wide receiver: 3
Level of first-round draft choice: 7 (No. 21 pick)
Steelers incentive level: 10
Total Wallace factor points: 20

What a perfect fit this would be. The Bengals would give up a relatively low first-round pick while hurting a division rival and barely denting their salary-cap situation.

Need more? Consider this: Andy Dalton's 11.0 VYPA ranked tied for seventh best in the league. If he was able to do that as a rookie, with a rookie wide receiver (A.J. Green) as his top pass-catcher, just imagine this passing game's ceiling if Dalton had both Green and Wallace at his disposal. The Bengals would have the potential to be one of the NFL's elite passing offenses.


KC Joyner, aka the Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. He also can be found on Twitter @kcjoynertfs and his web site. He is the author of an annual fantasy football draft guide, which is currently available, and "Blindsided: Why the Left Tackle is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts."

 

[Flyingiguana]

San Francisco 49ers

Need for vertical wide receiver: 7
Level of first-round draft choice: 10 (No. 30 pick)
Steelers incentive level: 6
Total Wallace factor points: 23

The 49ers nearly made it to the Super Bowl last year with their mix of a conservative offense and bruising defense, but the odds of their long-term success will greatly increase if they can improve their downfield passing numbers. Alex Smith has shown in the past that he is capable of posting near top-10 caliber statistics in various route depth categories, but San Francisco's subpar wide receiving corps last year was a prime reason he ranked 17th in VYPA (10.4).

The Niners may not have quite the incentive as the AFC contenders to hinder the Steelers' chances to keep Wallace, but their low first-round draft status and healthy salary-cap standing make this acquisition more than a sensible transaction.

there were plenty of long passes that were or would have been called back because of holds, etc. not to mention how many times the pocket would collapse. the subpar recievers didn't help, but they weren't the primary reason.

as for wallace, we already have a deep threat in vernon who can clear space for a wr like colston or vj.

 

[imac_21]

there were plenty of long passes that were or would have been called back because of holds, etc. not to mention how many times the pocket would collapse. the subpar recievers didn't help, but they weren't the primary reason.

as for wallace, we already have a deep threat in vernon who can clear space for a wr like colston or vj.

Don't forget the plenty of long passes that fell 5 yards out of bounds despite ample time and an open WR because Smith missed.

But you will, of course, ignore them.

 

[Flyingiguana]

Don't forget the plenty of long passes that fell 5 yards out of bounds despite ample time and an open WR because Smith missed.

But you will, of course, ignore them.

you talking about the 2 passes to ginn that ended up with holding calls against iupati? they looked more like they were being thrown away, but ginn did have a step

 

[imac_21]

you talking about the 2 passes to ginn that ended up with holding calls against iupati? they looked more like they were being thrown away, but ginn did have a step

I'm talking about the plenty of times he threw balls that landed out of bounds when you were in the bathroom or getting a beer. Apparently you missed every negative play Smith made this year as you feel he is the equivalent of a healthy Peyton Manning or Drew Brees in our offense.

 

[Flyingiguana]

I'm talking about the plenty of times he threw balls that landed out of bounds when you were in the bathroom or getting a beer. Apparently you missed every negative play Smith made this year as you feel he is the equivalent of a healthy Peyton Manning or Drew Brees in our offense.

i never made any such claim.

 

[imac_21]

i never made any such claim.

No, you haven't stated it. But you have certainly implied it.

I, and I'm sure others, would very much appreciate it if you gave us a list of Smith's flaws. Simply for you to acknowledge that he has some.

 

[Flyingiguana]

smith is a work in progress. he has the ability to win games with his arm or legs, but he lacks consistency at this point. he's not what i would consider excellent in any one area if you were creating smith on say madden, but he has the tools to be a pro bowler. especially in the double TE west coast offense harbaugh likes to run.

the whole offense is a work in progress and i'm expecting most of our moves this offseason to address the issues.

 

[imac_21]

smith is a work in progress. he has the ability to win games with his arm or legs, but he lacks consistency at this point. he's not what i would consider excellent in any one area if you were creating smith on say madden, but he has the tools to be a pro bowler. especially in the double TE west coast offense harbaugh likes to run.

the whole offense is a work in progress and i'm expecting most of our moves this offseason to address the issues.

So, he does everything well, but nothing excellent? Are you serious?

 

[Flyingiguana]

it's consistency that is smith's biggest problem. u mean to tell me he isn't capable of winning games when needed? even in his 2nd and before his injury in his 3rd year he would lead late drives to win the game.

i would place him in the Bsh area in most categories when it comes to throwing. the deep ball isn't his weakness like most complain about around here. it's his lack of touch on passes. he also doesn't have the strong arm needed to gun those out patterns.

 

[RedneckNiner]

Alex Smith is good enough to win games and be a starter an get you into the playoffs and maybe even a super bowl... If the defense is good enough. He also in Harbaughs system limited the mistakes and played safe. My observation is the Niner defense played to win, Alex played to not lose. With more work with Harbaugh I think Alex can grow to be a conistent average to slightly above average QB. Alex can lead a comeback now and then in a close game. But what he lacks is the ability to take the whole team on his shoulders an be a Montana, Young, Elway where he can make it happen and win. His not making mistakes means he holds the ball too long, or in the redzone throws it away rather than trying to fit it into tight windows. I still see him as the Qb for the next few years. I know some of yall are sold on Kap. But I watched his career at UNR and I hope I am wrong but I don't see anything that makes me think he is going to be a stud.

 

[Flyingiguana]

Alex Smith is good enough to win games and be a starter an get you into the playoffs and maybe even a super bowl... If the defense is good enough. He also in Harbaughs system limited the mistakes and played safe. My observation is the Niner defense played to win, Alex played to not lose. With more work with Harbaugh I think Alex can grow to be a conistent average to slightly above average QB. Alex can lead a comeback now and then in a close game. But what he lacks is the ability to take the whole team on his shoulders an be a Montana, Young, Elway where he can make it happen and win. His not making mistakes means he holds the ball too long, or in the redzone throws it away rather than trying to fit it into tight windows. I still see him as the Qb for the next few years. I know some of yall are sold on Kap. But I watched his career at UNR and I hope I am wrong but I don't see anything that makes me think he is going to be a stud.

a big reason why i want to have a back up plan for our back up plan (kap). cough*clausen*cough

 

[NinerSickness]

Clausen is a hot poop & pickle sandwhich.

 

[shouldakepowens]

Wow clausen and smith on same team not good

 

[Flyingiguana]

clausen is getting a bad rap because of the horrible team the panthers had. even moore looked like a 60 year old grandma on that team, but he played decently for miami.

 

[imac_21]

it's consistency that is smith's biggest problem. u mean to tell me he isn't capable of winning games when needed? even in his 2nd and before his injury in his 3rd year he would lead late drives to win the game.

i would place him in the Bsh area in most categories when it comes to throwing. the deep ball isn't his weakness like most complain about around here. it's his lack of touch on passes. he also doesn't have the strong arm needed to gun those out patterns.

Now you're getting there. You went from saying all he needed to do is improve his consistency to acknowledging a lack of touch and arm strength issues.

That's much better than the first post where you managed to talk about positives when asked specifically about negatives.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

smith is a work in progress. he has the ability to win games with his arm or legs, but he lacks consistency at this point. he's not what i would consider excellent in any one area if you were creating smith on say madden, but he has the tools to be a pro bowler. especially in the double TE west coast offense harbaugh likes to run.

the whole offense is a work in progress and i'm expecting most of our moves this offseason to address the issues.

You keep raising consistency. I think that term is a bit of a misnomer as you are applying it. For instance, you seem to be inferring that, because Smith has made good throws down the sideline on occasion, all that prevents him from doing it all the time is consistency. But that's not really accurate. Every NFL QB who has played long enough has made a good throw (probably at every level of the route tree), or felt pressure and avoided it, or used his legs to advantage, or shown great anticipation to throw a receiver open. But I wouldn't say it's only "consistency" that prevents these guys from doing it every time.

If we applied this argument to, say, Crabtree, we would conclude that if he were only more consistent he would run great routes, make the tough catches, elude defenders after the catch, and break tackles. In short, he would be a pro bowl receiver. Perhaps it is only inconsistency that prevents those things, but I think it goes beyond that.

Consistency, as you are using the word, is not something that a player can necessarily change easily. It's a huge part of being a great player, and it's something that is very difficult to alter. Smith threw a few good sideline balls. He threw more bad balls. He has struggled to throw long balls along the sideline for most of his career. Why should we expect that to suddenly change?

 

[Flyingiguana]

smith is developing, consistency comes with it when a qb goes through the amount of change smith has had to endure. people are remembering a few throws that he should have made, but long passes are not 65%+ for most qb's if any. u look at some of the drives smith has led and last year he performed almost everytime we needed a score late in games. harbaugh is gonna have to allow smith the chance to make plays, but others around him need to step up. losing edwards and morgan was a huge blow to our passing game.

i think the talent is there, not sure if others agree with me. with healthy recievers and his first full offseason with the same staff/playbook can smith play to his potential?

crabtree is consistent in running poor routes and not getting seperation. he lacks the short area quickness to even have a chance to ever be a pro bowl reciever.

 

[clyde_carbon]

smith is developing, consistency comes with it when a qb goes through the amount of change smith has had to endure. people are remembering a few throws that he should have made, but long passes are not 65%+ for most qb's if any. u look at some of the drives smith has led and last year he performed almost everytime we needed a score late in games. harbaugh is gonna have to allow smith the chance to make plays, but others around him need to step up. losing edwards and morgan was a huge blow to our passing game.

i think the talent is there, not sure if others agree with me. with healthy recievers and his first full offseason with the same staff/playbook can smith play to his potential?

crabtree is consistent in running poor routes and not getting seperation. he lacks the short area quickness to even have a chance to ever be a pro bowl reciever.

Do you even watch this team? If it's one thing that Crabtree does well, it's his quickness in small quarters.