Let's Talk Dan Campbell

[belcherboy]

how many of those 4th downs were 4th and 1.

Does anyone have this stat? I’m wondering that too. Having watched all the Lions games this season, he didn’t seem shy about going for it when it was 4th and 2 or more either.

 

[fightinfunbags]

The 9-20 stat that people keep pulling up is misleading.

It would have been a 48 yard field goal.

I don’t care that Badgely missed a few kicks from 54 yards in 2020. That has no bearing on how likely he is to kick a 48 yard field goal today.

His stats from 45-50 over the last 2 seasons is what we should be looking at.

Not 48+.

The only thing that matters is Campbell’s faith in his kicker. The second kicker of the season. They’ve been unsettled there all year.

 

[tlance]

The only thing that matters is Campbell’s faith in his kicker. The second kicker of the season. They’ve been unsettled there all year.

His lack of faith might have been unwarranted though.

That is on him.

But measuring 4th and 3 OR LESS against 48 or MORE is laughable. And people keep posting that stat.

Use 4th and 3 or more, or use 48 yards or less.

That would be a reasonable rate comparison.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

The only thing that matters is Campbell’s faith in his kicker. The second kicker of the season. They’ve been unsettled there all year.

and like I said it seems rather unreasonable to not trust a kicker to make a field goal under 50 yards when he's 93.5 percent on them. I can see debating 45 to 49...

Hell Justin Tucker is 95.4

 

[jayfan]

The only thing that matters is Campbell’s faith in his kicker. The second kicker of the season. They’ve been unsettled there all year.

Badgley is the kicker he wanted in the first place. He became our kicker last year. Was cut in camp this year only because he was injured. Then, after Patterson gets the job, he re-signed Badgley to the practice squad to replace Patterson once he missed a couple. This is Campbell's guy, to the extent that any kicker can be. He just hates kicking field goals.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

Badgley is the kicker he wanted in the first place. He became our kicker last year. Was cut in camp this year only because he was injured. Then, after Patterson gets the job, he re-signed Badgley to the practice squad to replace Patterson once he missed a couple. This is Campbell's guy, to the extent that any kicker can be. He just hates kicking field goals.

then there is a relatively high likelihood the Lions have a worse record next year.

 

[jarntt]

The only thing that matters is Campbell’s faith in his kicker. The second kicker of the season. They’ve been unsettled there all year.

But the guy (very small sample size) didn't miss a kick this year

 

[jarntt]

This is a league where coaches kneel on the ball at the end of a game to run out the clock and kick a mid 40's yard FG instead of risking running a couple of plays to get it to 35 yards (which drives me insane by the way). There is no guarantee he makes it. None. Absolutely none. But to pretend the odds of converting a 4th down were better is where I call absolute Bull Shit.

 

[DJ Fieri]

This is a league where coaches kneel on the ball at the end of a game to run out the clock and kick a mid 40's yard FG instead of risking running a couple of plays to get it to 35 yards (which drives me insane by the way). There is no guarantee he makes it. None. Absolutely none. But to pretend the odds of converting a 4th down were better is where I call absolute Bull Shit.

75% isn't pretending.

LOL.

 

[justanidiot]

At this point in Campbells career these calls are understandable, but eventually it is going to cost him his job.

 

[Mebert]

I still don't love the calls, but I do think Campbell being the same guy that got us there is a good thing. Let's all be honest, if Reynolds makes the catch on the first one 80% of his detractors are saying different things about Campbell.

I wish he would find a happier middle ground between who he is and conventional wisdom, but I think that ship has sailed. I will take what he is and be happy with it. He has the Lions winning games, and that is uncommon in my lifetime.

I would like to see what the Lions could do with 2 starting quality outside corners. We can't keep rotating through a series of undrafted rookies at corner.

 

[jarntt]

75% isn't pretending.

LOL.

How many stats do you want? You can't use a stat that includes 4th and 1.

So if this stat is right the Lions were 51.7% on 4th down conversions.

https://stathead.com/tiny/v8umf

If this is right they are 52% since Campbell has been head coach:

Detroit Lions' Dan Campbell on failed fourth down conversions: 'I don't regret those decisions'

"I just felt really good about us converting,” Dan Campbell said at Levi's Stadium, about 30 minutes after Detroit Lions' NFC championship game loss.

www.freep.com

"The Lions set an NFL record for fourth down attempts (41) in 2021 and are 65 of 123 overall (52.8%) in Campbell's three seasons as coach. They converted a fake punt that keyed an early-season win over the Kansas City Chiefs and went 3 for 5 on fourth downs in this year's playoffs."



52.5% here:

Best 4th Down Conversion Rates By An NFL Team 2023 | StatMuse

The Carolina Panthers had the most fourth-down conversions by a team in 2023, with 23 conversions.

www.statmuse.com

Here's another:

NFL fourth-down success rates​

The Lions' two fourth-down attempts in the second half came from a distance of two and three yards, respectively. Here are fourth down success rates across the NFL from 1-5 yards, according to 10-year data from 2013 to '22.

Distance (Yards)	Conversion rate (2013-2022)
1	65.5%
2	57.2%
3	47.4%
4	46.4%
5	44.1%

What did the analytics say about Dan Campbell's fourth-down decisions?​

Analytics gave the Lions a slightly better chance of winning by going for it on 4th-and-3 (39.1 percent) rather than attempting the field goal (38.8 percent). Still, the difference effectively amounts to a coin flip.


For comparison the kicker is 100% this year

 

[DJ Fieri]

I still don't love the calls, but I do think Campbell being the same guy that got us there is a good thing. Let's all be honest, if Reynolds makes the catch on the first one 80% of his detractors are saying different things about Campbell.

I wish he would find a happier middle ground between who he is and conventional wisdom, but I think that ship has sailed. I will take what he is and be happy with it. He has the Lions winning games, and that is uncommon in my lifetime.

I would like to see what the Lions could do with 2 starting quality outside corners. We can't keep rotating through a series of undrafted rookies at corner.

And the Gibbs fumble.

Yep. Focus on upgrading the defense.

 

[eaglesnut]

So this year FA career when it suits you? And how many of those 4th downs were 4th and 1. Like I said thats a horrible take. Didn’t miss a FG THIS year and is 86% from that distance in the last 4 years. Stop with the cherry picking of stats. He had one bad year and it was a long time ago.

Putting the season on Badgely's foot is stupid. Really stupid.

 

[eaglesnut]

How many stats do you want? You can't use a stat that includes 4th and 1.

So if this stat is right the Lions were 51.7% on 4th down conversions.

https://stathead.com/tiny/v8umf

If this is right they are 52% since Campbell has been head coach:

Detroit Lions' Dan Campbell on failed fourth down conversions: 'I don't regret those decisions'

"I just felt really good about us converting,” Dan Campbell said at Levi's Stadium, about 30 minutes after Detroit Lions' NFC championship game loss.

www.freep.com

"The Lions set an NFL record for fourth down attempts (41) in 2021 and are 65 of 123 overall (52.8%) in Campbell's three seasons as coach. They converted a fake punt that keyed an early-season win over the Kansas City Chiefs and went 3 for 5 on fourth downs in this year's playoffs."



52.5% here:

Best 4th Down Conversion Rates By An NFL Team 2023 | StatMuse

The Carolina Panthers had the most fourth-down conversions by a team in 2023, with 23 conversions.

www.statmuse.com

Here's another:

NFL fourth-down success rates​

The Lions' two fourth-down attempts in the second half came from a distance of two and three yards, respectively. Here are fourth down success rates across the NFL from 1-5 yards, according to 10-year data from 2013 to '22.

Distance (Yards)	Conversion rate (2013-2022)
1	65.5%
2	57.2%
3	47.4%
4	46.4%
5	44.1%

What did the analytics say about Dan Campbell's fourth-down decisions?​

Analytics gave the Lions a slightly better chance of winning by going for it on 4th-and-3 (39.1 percent) rather than attempting the field goal (38.8 percent). Still, the difference effectively amounts to a coin flip.


For comparison the kicker is 100% this year

You can use 4th and 1 if they passed on it.

4th and anything under 4 is the same routes, even the same play call. Especially with a regular QB and not a running one.

 

[jarntt]

You can use 4th and 1 if they passed on it.

4th and anything under 4 is the same routes, even the same play call. Especially with a regular QB and not a running one.

Alluding to 4th and 1 and 4th and 4 being the same is just bizarre

 

[eaglesnut]

Alluding to 4th and 1 and 4th and 4 being the same is just bizarre

I agree with you. Take out the runs to get a truer representation of their probability on the play.

Didn't see you do it.

 

[jarntt]

I agree with you. Take out the runs to get a truer representation of their probability on the play.

Didn't see you do it.

On 4th and inches/one even if you pass the threat to run COMPLETELY changes the way the defense plays. Even Taylor Swift knows this...

 

[sharkymcwrath]

More retarded bull shit. This is the Butterfly Effect taking place in sports. A FG at 8 minutes of the 3Q completely changes game script.

^^^No, it absolutely didn’t.

Poop

 

[sharkymcwrath]

I get the whole conservative game management mantra regarding field position and risk management but its not law, and keeps you predictably in line with the opposing teams plans. That said Campbells gambling can or maybe has, turned into an issue, at some point i expect it to.

My opinion is that hes gone to the well to much, and thats from someone who would only punt from my own side of the field. When the yards markers are counting down, its 4 down territory to me.

Campbells decisions about 4th downs have allowed him to run on 3rd and long vs teams playing whats assumed to be a passing down. For campbell keep this up hes gonna need a more dynamic audible gameplan and more trick plays.

I agree with this mostly. The guy is obviously a good coach and I'd even go so far as to say that his going for it on 4th down during the regular season has kept opposing teams on their toes knowing he might. And possibly that psychological effect trickled into the postseason.

But where you play the best teams and the playoff's are a different animal. There is no game next week if you fail.