Length of deal holding up Alex Smith contract

[numone9er]

NFL.com news: Smith reportedly wants more years in 49ers' contract offer

 

[MHSL82]

All this talk about Manning and so little about Alex... it does make me think that Alex is perhaps getting a little undervalued/underrated and Peyton is a little overrated.

There is also an assumption that a team will get Peyton in his prime but you are getting a 36 year old Peyton.

Disclaimer: I think Manning is still better than Smith. Got to get that out of the way first.

People have to realize that the odds are Manning isn't as good as he was in 2010 and Smith will likely be better than 2011. These aren't guarantees but I would frame my pro-Manning, pro-Smith, anti-Manning, or anti-Smith under that premise, knowing that if my premise is wrong, it likely goes more to my point than against it.

For example, if Smith doesn't improve, it bolsters my Pro-Manning stance. If Manning is better than 2010, it bolsters my Pro-Manning stance. OR If Smith is much better than 2011, it bolsters my Pro-Smith argument. If Manning is much worse than 2010, it bolsters my Pro-Smith argument. In other words, the only way I'd be wrong, either way, is if Smith somehow is better than Manning 2010.

Manning won't need to be as good as he was in 2010 to succeed and Smith would need to improve to get there, but not as grand of improvement as many make it out to be. I think of it like a ven diagram where we can win a Superbowl in the shaded areas of both QBs but it'll take a bigger improvement from Smith to win than it would take a drop for Manning to not.

 

[EKmane]

I'm sorry, but I refuse to believe Alex's play warranted a 5 year "commitment", or even 4 years for that matter.

I'm having a hard time with them offering 3 years. Two years at around 7 to 9 per season is what I was hoping for. million

I'm really hoping it doesn't get done and we just go with CK, while spending that 7-9 mil on an impact rg and wr.

At that point we could draft bpa's (assuming Rodgers is re signed).

 

[Bemular]

I'm having a hard time with them offering 3 years. Two years at around 7 to 9 per season is what I was hoping for. million

I'm really hoping it doesn't get done and we just go with CK, while spending that 7-9 mil on an impact rg and wr.

At that point we could draft bpa's (assuming Rodgers is re signed).

I agree with this 100%

 

[deep9er]

I don't necessarily disagree, but if we're talking 3 years of guaranteed money followed by 2 years of mostly non-guaranteed money I wouldn't call that a 5 year commitment at all. I'd call it a 3 year commitment with a 2 year option. I hope if it is a 5 year deal that's what is on the table.

yep, what i expected too, so surprised the rumour is 3 years? the first three is the meat of the contract averaging ~$10M/year, the last two years are fluff.

obviously, we want to pay him less, commit less, or whatever 'less' combination you want? but it takes two sides to agree and we're in a tough spot for QB. IMO the third year is like the compromise that'll get him to sign.

if he wants all five years 'guaranteed' at ~$10M/year, then agree we shouldn't do it.

 

[AU_Fever]

Three years max is all the Niners should offer Smith. If he wants 5 years, let him walk. There is not a lot of interest in Smith. Maybe it's time to start thinking CK. He has one good, but not great year and his agent wants 5 years. I hope that doesn't happen.

 

[Bemular]

Three years max is all the Niners should offer Smith. If he wants 5 years, let him walk. There is not a lot of interest in Smith. Maybe it's time to start thinking CK. He has one good, but not great year and his agent wants 5 years. I hope that doesn't happen.

This covers it for me as well.

 

[NinersFan80]

No reason Smith deserves 5 years and there is no reason the 49ers would want/need him for 5 years. I do believe CK is the next QB for the Niners and I would say he only needs one more year of bench and learning before he is really ready.

 

[maniax]

No reason Smith deserves 5 years and there is no reason the 49ers would want/need him for 5 years. I do believe CK is the next QB for the Niners and I would say he only needs one more year of bench and learning before he is really ready.

I think after a full offseason with the coaching staff, CK will be ready to go in the fall.

I think he can put up a better season than 3100 yards and 17 TDs or whatever it was. He might through more than 5 picks though, but part of that 5 picks was ultra-conservatism on offense at times.

 

[deep9er]

to me nothing to get worked up over yet, just typical negotiations where each side holds out as long as they can.

 

[MHSL82]

No reason Smith deserves 5 years and there is no reason the 49ers would want/need him for 5 years. I do believe CK is the next QB for the Niners and I would say he only needs one more year of bench and learning before he is really ready.[/QUOTE]

Obviously Smith cannot call the shots, but with knowing that CK is in the plans, I can't blame him for going for more years. The more guaranteed money thing I think is just to say he doesn't want to volunteer to be the bridge to Kaep. Again, he can't call the shots and I do think he is competitive and believes he can beat CK out, but the agent and he are going to look for as much assurance as they can... and should. I see this just as negotiating with the driving force being the desire to play here as a starting QB and not a bridge. For the third time, Alex cannot control that, but barring a great 2013 or 2014 this may be his best opportunity. I bet he'd take a lower total salary if it meant more years with more of it guaranteed and split through more years. I don't think he's about the money.

 

[jayviabay]

Johnson is 49ers' logical move if Smith isn't signed

 

[maniax]

Johnson is 49ers' logical move if Smith isn't signed

I'm getting tired of all the Josh Johnson talk. I'd rather go with CK.

 

[jayviabay]

I'm getting tired of all the Josh Johnson talk. I'd rather go with CK.

I dont think the signing would be about who we go with but more about having three QBs in camp to Compete. Who knows, if the GM and Coach are honest about open competition, we could see CK unseat Alex or Tolzien leap frog the both of them and become the guy we go with... I just hope they go with whom ever gives us the best chance to do better than we did last year.

 

[Ray_Dogg]

How Sanchez's contract could impact 49ers, Alex Smith

I still think we have the leverage. I don't see the Manning loser paying Alex that much.

 

[iHATEdodgers]

I think after a full offseason with the coaching staff, CK will be ready to go in the fall.

I think he can put up a better season than 3100 yards and 17 TDs or whatever it was. He might through more than 5 picks though, but part of that 5 picks was ultra-conservatism on offense at times.

Really there is no might CK will throw more than 5 picks if he is the starter. I don't think he will be the starter, but if he is (I will be rooting for him!) he will be facing a 1st place schedule will basically no real NFL experience. I think it's crazy for people to expect that he will match what Smith did last year, it's really not fair to him.

This has already been discussed over and over but:

He might match/exceed the yardage and TDs from Smith, but it's no guarantee - he could do anything from flame out like Leaf to something like Newton (4,100 yards 21 TDs 17 INTs - I wouldn't expect anything close to 14 rushing TDs however), in my opinion Newton-like passing numbers is the extreme high-end of what anyone should expect. I would hope for those types of numbers but I would expect something worse.

I don't think with the schedule we will be facing and the type of numbers we should reasonably expect from him that we would make it back to the NFC Championship maybe not even the playoffs.

 

[Jikkle]

I think ultimately he'll take the our offer but he and his agent have nothing to really lose by asking for the 5 year deal he wants and seeing what free agency offers.

The team would rather go with CK than overpay Smith and Smith is a tough sell as a starter for other teams so Smith really doesn't have much leverage in all of this.

 

[jayviabay]

How Sanchez's contract could impact 49ers, Alex Smith

I still think we have the leverage. I don't see the Manning loser paying Alex that much.

How many teams do you think are truly in the picture?

If its:
Broncos
Chiefs
Dolphins
Cardinals
Seahawks

I cant see none of those teams even pursuing Alex. I think his best chance at getting starters money is Cleveland...

 

[Ray_Dogg]

McDrunk is in Seattle so I could see the Seahawks having interest. Still not for that much coin.

 

[deep9er]

Really there is no might CK will throw more than 5 picks if he is the starter. I don't think he will be the starter, but if he is (I will be rooting for him!) he will be facing a 1st place schedule will basically no real NFL experience. I think it's crazy for people to expect that he will match what Smith did last year, it's really not fair to him.

This has already been discussed over and over but:

He might match/exceed the yardage and TDs from Smith, but it's no guarantee - he could do anything from flame out like Leaf to something like Newton (4,100 yards 21 TDs 17 INTs - I wouldn't expect anything close to 14 rushing TDs however), in my opinion Newton-like passing numbers is the extreme high-end of what anyone should expect. I would hope for those types of numbers but I would expect something worse.

I don't think with the schedule we will be facing and the type of numbers we should reasonably expect from him that we would make it back to the NFC Championship maybe not even the playoffs.

agreed, IF we have to start CK our expectations (for the team) will have to adjust. with Alex i'd be confident we win the West even though we wouldn't repeat 13-3. with CK it'll be like 60/40 we win the West?